Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist

No Arctic Sea Ice in Aug and Sept for 2C Warming; July and Oct Sea Ice Vanishes at 2.5C: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 11, 2020

I continue studying the latest peer reviewed scientific studies on when we can expect the first Arctic Blue Ocean Event in September, and when adjacent months will become ice free. This video and the next are most important, must watch videos that converge to what I have been saying for many years. Here’s the bottom line; just the facts ma’am.

• With 2C global mean temperature rise we expect August and September to be ice free.
• With 2.5C we expect an ice free Arctic for July, August, September, and October.

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No Arctic Sea Ice in Aug and Sept for 2C Warming; July and Oct Sea Ice Vanishes at 2.5C: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 11, 2020

Following Part 1, we expect no Arctic Sea Ice in September when global average temperature reaches 1.7C above preindustrial.

• August is ice free next at about the same time.
• Next to fall is July, followed sequentially by October, June, November, May, December, and April.
• Note July vanishing before October, then months fall out sequentially both sides (earlier month, than later month, etc.).
• Finally, January sea ice, then February, and lastly March will vanish as we reach a year round ice free Arctic Ocean state.

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Effects of Aerosol Reductions on Arctic Temperature Rise and Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 12, 2020

In previous videos I’ve discussed and estimated the global temperature rise from a reduction of worldwide aerosols due to global industrial slowdowns with our attempts to contain the Coronavirus.

• Here, and in my next video I discuss huge temperature anomalies of 5 to 6 degrees C from January through May in Siberia, and
• ongoing Arctic sea ice melt.

I ask whether there is a large influence from aerosol reductions in the Arctic, and examine two recent peer reviewed scientific papers that look at aerosol/sea ice connections.

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Effects of Aerosol Reductions on Arctic Temperature Rise and Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 12, 2020

Here, and in my last video I ask whether there is a large aerosol reduction influence on rising Arctic temperatures, and thus on rapid Arctic sea ice melt losses.

• Global aerosol reductions have occurred this year due to worldwide Coronavirus pandemic caused industrial shutdowns.

I examine two recent scientific papers that look at aerosol/sea ice connections; namely “Impact of Aerosol Emission Controls on Future Sea Ice Cover” [1] and “Elucidating the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Arctic Sea Ice Variations” [2].

Ref:  [1] ‘Globally, sulphur dioxide emissions, which lead to the formation of sulphate aerosols, peaked in the 1970s and have since declined by ∼15%. Correspondingly, there was a sharp increase in the burden of sulphate between 1950 and 1970; and since 1980, the burden has dropped. In contrast, black carbon emissions have increased throughout the twentieth century with a greater rate of increase between 1970 and 1990; the simulated global atmospheric burden of black carbon almost doubled during that time frame, but there is an indication of a decrease over the last decade‘.

[2] ‘Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover has been shrinking at an unprecedented rate since the 1970s. Even though the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been closely linked with the loss of Arctic sea ice, the role of atmospheric aerosols in past and future Arctic climate change remains elusive. Using a state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model, the authors assess the equilibrium responses of the Arctic sea ice to the different aerosol emission scenarios and investigate the pathways by which aerosols impose their influence in the Arctic.

‘These sensitivity experiments show that the impacts of aerosol perturbations on the pace of sea ice melt effectively modulate the ocean circulation and atmospheric feedbacks. Because of the contrasting evolutions of particulate pollution in the developed and developing countries since the 1970s, the opposite aerosol forcings from different midlatitude regions are nearly canceled out in the Arctic during the boreal summer, resulting in a muted aerosol effect on the recent sea ice changes.’

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