Bizarre Warm Weather Thunderstorms, Occurring in High Arctic Near North Pole

Warm Weather Thunderstorms are Bizarrely Occurring in the High Arctic Near the North Pole // Jul 10, 2020

The Arctic has warmed so fast that warm weather thunderstorms now occur in the Arctic reaching a record latitude of 85 degrees North. Lightning has been detected within 500 km (300 miles) of the North Pole; some lightning is amazingly occurring directly over sea ice.

The height of the lowest part of the atmosphere (troposphere) is only 7 km high in the Arctic (17 km at equator; global average 11 km), and acts as an upper cap on heights of cumulonimbus storm clouds (anvil top is at tropopause). Clearly, the 7 km limit is not stopping these Arctic thunderstorms.
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Risk. Risk, Risk, and More Risk. Risk

New UN Report on Electronic-Waste: e-waste: We think we can throw something AWAY. There is no AWAY // Jul 2, 2020

I was just on CTV News talking about major findings within a brand new UN report released today titled “Global e-waste Monitor 2020”, and I decided to make a video. Globally, in 2019, we dumped a record 53.6 million tons of e-waste, equal to the weight of 350 Queen Elizabeth 2 cruise ships.

Inside this waste was:

  • $57 Billion in platinum, gold, silver, copper and other high value components;
  • as well as many toxic substances such as mercury that are extremely harmful to human health and the environment.

This is unsustainable. We must do Cradle-to-Grave product design, and stop planned obsolescence of products.
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High Risk of Simultaneous Crop Failures in North America, Europe, and Asia From Stuck Jet Streams // Jul 3, 2020

With Abrupt Climate System Change, we are hit with worsening, severe, increasingly grave consequences. When the Jet Stream Rossby Waves get stuck in persistent quasi-resonant locking patterns with wavenumbers 5 and 7 (i.e. 5 and 7 wavelengths: a ridge H and a trough L is one wavelength cycle) circumventing the planet then crucial agricultural regions in North America, Europe, and Asia have lower yields. This jet stream resonance with Earth (from topography and land-ocean temperature contrasts) causes simultaneous crop failures spiking food prices causing geopolitical conflict and mayhem.
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Editor (dk): We had promised awhile back, a very good friend of ours in climate work and alert, to share his work to Paul’s site, but failed to do so. We hope to remedy that, here. JimTanya Qually-McHenry who has been holding Climate Rallies weekly in Gettysburg Pennsylvania, of all places. They are outstanding. Besides having, and please forgive us if we recollect poorly, taught history in Public Schools, Jim is very lucid and on point. He has been tireless in his message. Besides that, he is an extraordinarily accomplished lifetime runner, with many top or winning finishes in Seniors in the Marathon, at the National Level.

He is and has been a huge fan of Paul’s, Peter Wadhams, Peter Carter, Sam Carana’s Arctic News blog, and Sandra Amy’s Environmental Coffeehouse, but in particular Paul.

His most recent video, came out today. You must view this, at Facebook: ‘Climate Change Emergency Protest #82‘:  ‘The Arctic’, July 3, 2020 Gettysburg PA US
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I was just on CTV News talking
about major findings within a brand
new UN report released today

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Global Food Supply at RISK from Simultaneous Crop Losses Due to Specific Jet Stream Patterns

 

My son Neil put him in the tree low down, and Shack wanted to go higher. Neil then took the photo, and climbed on a chair to get him down. He seemed to like it up there; he trusts us:) He is normally an indoor cat, but very adventurous!  

I am training him to go backwards down a tree; cats cannot normally do that, and thus get stuck. The tree is like a one way street to them; up only…
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Teaser: Global Food Supply at RISK from Simultaneous Crop Losses Due to Specific Jet Stream Patterns // Jun 29, 2020

I have perfect timing starting this video. My face is illuminated by lightning and then seconds later you hear the thunder. Pop Quiz: How far away was the lightning bolt? A while ago, Michael Mann and others published a paper on how jet streams tend to get amplified and stuck in a persistent, quasi-resonance with wavenumbers 6 to 8 (Ridge-Trough wave pattern repeats 6 to 8 times around the Earth) .

I introduce you now to a new paper that finds modes 5 and 7 can cause simultaneous crop reductions in vital farming areas in North America, Europe, and Russia. This is obviously a huge threat to our global food supply.

Ref:  Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events, Mann, Rahmstorf, Kornhuber, Steinman, Miller & Coumou:  Published: 27 March 2017:

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide.’
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Punching Through the Front of a Storm as it Tracked from Ottawa to the US Border // Jun 29, 2020

Just for FUN; yesterday I spend 4 great hours in the car tracking a nice storm system from Ottawa southward to the US border, a distance of over 100 km (60 miles). There was no jet stream or wind shear to cause rotation, thus no tornadoes, however there was torrential rain with some hail.

My dashboard mounted camera picked up the action as I punched through the storm at the front side. You see beautiful skies, lots of rolling dark clouds and very detailed and majestic cloud structures that made my road trip a success.
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More Science on Jet Stream Rossby Wave Blocks and Consequences to Humanity and Our Societies // Jun 24, 2020

I continue to chat on blocking changes under climate change acceleration, and how the consequences are very bad for humanity and societies. The number of people directly affected by blocking is proportional to the size of the region under the ridge which has been found to be proportional in turn to the thickness of the jet stream times the wavelength of the Rossby Wave modified by a curvature factor of the wave. Wave resonances of the jet stream Rossby waves with the land-ocean contrasts and the topography of the Earth (orography) can result in simultaneous crop failures, as I discuss in further detail in some videos to follow.
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Persistent Quasi-Stationary Jet Stream Ridge Over Siberia a Perfect Example of Jet Stream Breakdown // Jun 23, 2020

As I explained previously, slowing, wavier jet streams (less West-to-East zonal winds; more North-to-South meridional winds) cause the likelihood of atmospheric blocks to be much greater.

The persistent quasi-stationary ridge in the Arctic over Siberia is extremely concerning, and will quickly accelerate degradation of Arctic Sea Ice, permafrost breakdown with associated methane emissions, and Greenland glacier melt with rapid sea level rise. I continue to chat about how blocking changes with rapid climate change acceleration, and how consequences of this change are very bad news for humanity and society.
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Jet Stream Configurations: Consequences of Abrupt Climate Change

The Five Main Jet Stream Blocking Configurations and Consequences of Abrupt Climate Change /Jun 22, 2020

With slowing, wavier jet streams (less zonal; more meridional waves) the likelihood of atmospheric blocks is much greater. As I explained from a boat in the middle of a lake in my recent CTV News interview, blocking explains Ottawa’s present heat wave and the unbelievable, unprecedented Siberian heat wave.  I explain five main blocking configurations:

  • summer block (basic ridge);
  • omega block;
  • anti-cyclonic wave breaking block;
  • cyclonic wave breaking block; and
  • Rex block.

I chat about how blocking changes with rapid climate change acceleration, and how consequences of this change are bad news for humanity and society.

Ref: Blocking and its Response to Climate Change.  Link to download of PDF, here.  Woollings, Barriopedro, Methven, et al. Published: 20 July 2018

Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields‘.
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Jet Stream Fracturing and Blocking With Abrupt Climate Change // Jun 19, 2020

As the Arctic warms at faster rates, decreasing the temperature gradient to the equator, jet streams slow and become wavier in the North-South direction (aka meridional), making the likelihood of getting stuck for weeks on end in persistent patterns called blocks greater.

Westerly winds must reroute around these blocks, either to the north of them or to the south of them, or get stalled out completely. As the jet streams weaken and get more fractured, the temperature contrast between land and ocean gain influence, as does the topography (orography) of the land below (mountains versus flat regions). Complexity abounds.

Ref:  Extreme Weather, 12 June 2020:  Jet stream: Is climate change causing more ‘blocking’ weather events?   

Key to this unseasonable weather are persistent high-pressure “blocking” weather systems, which bring clear, dry conditions on the ground below for many days or weeks.

Blocking events bat away oncoming low-pressure systems that would bring the prospect of clouds and rain. They are particularly synonymous with heatwaves and drought in summer and bitterly cold conditions in winter‘.
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How the Ribbon of Fast Moving High Altitude Air is Vital to Understanding Weather and Climate ///Jun 19, 2020

Understanding the jet streams is crucial for understanding weather patterns throughout the seasons. Understanding jet stream changes from year to year is crucial for understanding climate change. Essentially, the jet stream acts as a wall between cold, dry high latitude air at the poles and warm, humid lower latitude air. As the Arctic warms at ever faster rates, the jet streams slow and become much wavier in the North-South direction, making the likelihood of getting stuck for weeks on end in persistent patterns called blocks greater. However changes in the tropics are also very important to jet stream behaviour.
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Change in Jet Stream Driving Abrupt Climate Change

     

Jet Stream Change Driving and Responding to Abrupt Climate Change: Part 1 of Many // Jun 16, 2020

Throughout Earth history, physical changes in the jet stream (location, speed, waviness, width, etc.) have been vitally important for our weather and climate systems.

  • When a large quasi-stationary ridge forms west to east air flow and weather systems are blocked, causing extreme weather (heat waves; droughts under ridge; torrential rains; floods in adjacent troughs).
  • Climate models don’t agree on jet stream changes in the future as climate change rapidly accelerates.

In these videos, I discuss the overall picture of jet streams and then delve into the latest peer reviewed science on jet stream behavior.


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Ref:  Carbon Brief, ‘Jet stream: Is climate change causing more ‘blocking’ weather events?‘  Robertt McSweeney, 12.06.2020:  ‘The past few months have seen some remarkable weather, from the UK’s sunniest spring on record to Siberia’s dramatic heatwave and “zombie wildfires”.

Ref2:  Jet Stream, A Journey Through our Changing Climate, Tim Woollings:

A fascinating introduction to the jet stream, providing insight into how it affects our weather, and how it relates to extreme weather events.  Underlying science is built up as the story follows a weather balloon as it rides the jet stream around the world.  An engaging blend of scientific writing and insightful historical and cultural contexts.
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Discovering New Things In Your Hometown, For the
First Time, Even Though You Have Lived There Twenty
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Aerosol Reductions Effects on Arctic Temperatures, Targets By Months

No Arctic Sea Ice in Aug and Sept for 2C Warming; July and Oct Sea Ice Vanishes at 2.5C: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 11, 2020

I continue studying the latest peer reviewed scientific studies on when we can expect the first Arctic Blue Ocean Event in September, and when adjacent months will become ice free. This video and the next are most important, must watch videos that converge to what I have been saying for many years. Here’s the bottom line; just the facts ma’am.

  • With 2C global mean temperature rise we expect August and September to be ice free.
  • With 2.5C we expect an ice free Arctic for July, August, September, and October.

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No Arctic Sea Ice in Aug and Sept for 2C Warming; July and Oct Sea Ice Vanishes at 2.5C: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 11, 2020

Following Part 1, we expect no Arctic Sea Ice in September when global average temperature reaches 1.7C above preindustrial.

  • August is ice free next at about the same time.
  • Next to fall is July, followed sequentially by October, June, November, May, December, and April.
  • Note July vanishing before October, then months fall out sequentially both sides (earlier month, than later month, etc.).
  • Finally, January sea ice, then February, and lastly March will vanish as we reach a year round ice free Arctic Ocean state.

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Effects of Aerosol Reductions on Arctic Temperature Rise and Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 12, 2020

In previous videos I’ve discussed and estimated the global temperature rise from a reduction of worldwide aerosols due to global industrial slowdowns with our attempts to contain the Coronavirus.

  • Here, and in my next video I discuss huge temperature anomalies of 5 to 6 degrees C from January through May in Siberia, and
  • ongoing Arctic sea ice melt.

I ask whether there is a large influence from aerosol reductions in the Arctic, and examine two recent peer reviewed scientific papers that look at aerosol/sea ice connections.

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Effects of Aerosol Reductions on Arctic Temperature Rise and Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 12, 2020

Here, and in my last video I ask whether there is a large aerosol reduction influence on rising Arctic temperatures, and thus on rapid Arctic sea ice melt losses.

  • Global aerosol reductions have occurred this year due to worldwide Coronavirus pandemic caused industrial shutdowns.

I examine two recent scientific papers that look at aerosol/sea ice connections; namely “Impact of Aerosol Emission Controls on Future Sea Ice Cover[1] and “Elucidating the Role of Anthropogenic Aerosols in Arctic Sea Ice Variations” [2].

Ref:  [1] ‘Globally, sulphur dioxide emissions, which lead to the formation of sulphate aerosols, peaked in the 1970s and have since declined by ∼15%. Correspondingly, there was a sharp increase in the burden of sulphate between 1950 and 1970; and since 1980, the burden has dropped. In contrast, black carbon emissions have increased throughout the twentieth century with a greater rate of increase between 1970 and 1990; the simulated global atmospheric burden of black carbon almost doubled during that time frame, but there is an indication of a decrease over the last decade‘.

[2] ‘Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover has been shrinking at an unprecedented rate since the 1970s. Even though the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been closely linked with the loss of Arctic sea ice, the role of atmospheric aerosols in past and future Arctic climate change remains elusive. Using a state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model, the authors assess the equilibrium responses of the Arctic sea ice to the different aerosol emission scenarios and investigate the pathways by which aerosols impose their influence in the Arctic.

‘These sensitivity experiments show that the impacts of aerosol perturbations on the pace of sea ice melt effectively modulate the ocean circulation and atmospheric feedbacks. Because of the contrasting evolutions of particulate pollution in the developed and developing countries since the 1970s, the opposite aerosol forcings from different midlatitude regions are nearly canceled out in the Arctic during the boreal summer, resulting in a muted aerosol effect on the recent sea ice changes.’

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What Happens to Sea Ice, After First Arctic Blue Ocean Event?

     

After First Arctic BOE (Loss of All September Sea Ice) then What Happens Next to the Sea Ice? 1 of 2 // Jun 9, 2020

Many years ago I discussed my thoughts on how Arctic sea ice loss would play out.

  • After the first Blue Ocean Event (BOE: less than 1 million square kilometres of ice left) with open water in September, I argued that within a few years of that BOE open water would occur for Aug, Sept, and Oct;
  • within a few more years July and Nov would then become ice free, and
  • within a decade the entire Arctic Ocean would be ice free.

What does the literature from the last few years say? I delve into an important paper called “Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons” to attempt to figure out what will actually happen [1].


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Will we reach an Ice Free Arctic Ocean State Year Round or will some ice persist year round? 2 of 2 // Jun 9, 2020

In this second part of a two part video series, I continue to delve into an important paper called “Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons” to attempt to determine whether an initial Blue Ocean Event (BOE) will eventually lead to an ice free Arctic Ocean year round, or to an Arctic with no sea ice for about half the year.

The bottom line of this most recent research seems to indicate the latter case, at least for many years. However I still have the view that the cascading effects will lead to the ice free year round state within a decade or so of the initial BOE. No place on Earth is changing more than the Arctic.
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[1] Ref sample:  ‘Introduction

Sea ice plays a critical role in the Earth’s climate by regulating the exchanges of heat, momentum and moisture between the atmosphere and the polar oceans, and by redistributing salt within the ocean. Sea ice primarily exists in the polar regions, and throughout the observational record, at least 16 million km2 or about 5%, of the world’s oceans have been covered by sea ice at any one time. Because of its high reflectivity, sea ice reflects the majority of the sun’s radiation reaching the surface back to space, which efficiently cools the polar regions of our planet.

‘As sea ice melts at its surface, its surface albedo is lowered, which in turn increases the amount of the sun’s energy absorbed by the ice surface and further enhances ice melt. When the ice completely melts, this solar radiation is absorbed by the darker ocean surface, generating a positive feedback that amplifies Arctic air temperatures in autumn and winter as the ocean returns the heat gained in summer back to the atmosphere‘.

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Arctic Sea Ice Trajectories from Observations and Models

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Projections From the Latest-and-Greatest Climate Simulation Models (CMIP6) // Jun 3, 2020

The latest, most sophisticated climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) have been used to track Arctic Sea Ice Area and Volume over time and make future projections.

  • The vast majority of models predict a practically ice free Arctic in summer (less than 1 million km**2) before 2050.
  • September sea ice area decreases at a rate of 2.73 m**2 per ton of CO2 emissions,
  • and by 4 million km**2 per degree Celsius of average global warming.

Future cumulative CO2 emissions of between 500 to 1,100 Gt should finish the ice; with our present level of 40 Gt per year this is between 12.5 and 27.5 years.
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Cutting My Own Hair:  Before.
Notice, I am wearing a GARBAGE bag.

After
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Our Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean: Part 1 of 3 // Jun 3, 2020

When will Arctic sea-ice vanish? In this 1st of 3 videos of findings from a review paper, I delve into details. Importantly, sea ice coverage loss (area and extent) have a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions.

  • There is roughly 3 square meters of September ice loss per ton of CO2 emissions;
  • or a loss of 4 million square km per degree C rise in global temperature;
  • or a cumulative emission amount of 800 Gt (20 years).
  • There is also an internal variability (chaotic) component of 1 million square km (or 300 Gt or 7.5 years).

Thus, no summer sea ice within 12.5 to 27.5 years. I expect sooner myself.

Ref:  The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean, Dirk Notz1 · Julienne Stroeve, Published online: 26 September 2018

Abstract
‘Purpose of Review The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.

Recent Findings
‘The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 ◦C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO2 emissions must remain below 500 Gt.

Summary
‘The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced’.
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English Translation of CMIP6: Drought Three Ways

Abrupt Climate Change: Drought Projections in the Latest State-of-the-Art Climate Models (CMIP6) // May 28, 2020

I talk Drought. A new science paper uses the latest state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to determine which parts of our planet will experience the worst droughts as climate change rapidly accelerates.

Most people know of the greatly reduced precipitation drought (meteorological drought); but there are two other types.

  • Agricultural drought is from greatly reduced soil moisture, and
  • hydrological drought is from much greater runoff occurring.

Usually all three factors contribute in varying degrees, and drought severity has very strong regional and seasonal dependencies.

Ref: Overview CMIP6 Experimental Design and Organization. Download PDF of Summary, here.  Clip:  ‘Over the last decades significant progress has been made in model evaluation. The CMIP community has now reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently to enable a systematic and rapid performance assessment of the large number of models participating in CMIP.

‘Such an evaluation system will be implemented for CMIP6. Our initial goal is that two capabilities will be used to produce a broad characterization of CMIP DECK and historical simulations as soon as new CMIP6 model experiments are published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): 

At the WGCM meeting, it was decided that the results of these tools can be displayed on a public (rather than a password restricted) website‘.


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I Chat on Global Drought Maps: Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Runoff Changes Around the Planet // May 28, 2020

Second video: I talk Drought again. Watch above previous video first, where I give the background. Here I do a data delve (as opposed to a mind meld) on the drought maps. I cover

  • Surface Air Temperature, and
  • numerous world maps on Precipitation Changes, Soil Moisture Drying (at surface plus down into the soil), and
  • Runoff Increase expected around the planet in different regions, seasonally: Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb = DJF), Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA), and Fall (SON) and also annually.

Find your own region on the world maps (Zoom in on your computer) and see if you are in a water challenged hotspot; now or expected soon’.


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Ranting in the Rain on Climate, Coronavirus, Trump, Murders by Police, and Other Worsening Mayhem // May 29, 2020

I needed to rant tonight while walking through a torrential downpour in Ottawa tonight. Lots of utter crap and craziness is occurring around this week. The Coronavirus has not gone away despite actions of many, and we can expect many more severe waves.

  • Far northern Arctic heatwaves are unbelievable;
  • major Siberian cities slashed a previous record high of 12C (53.6F) reaching 25.4C (77.7F).
  • Zombie fires that smoldered under snow all winter reignited.
  • Parts of the US experienced incredible deluges knocking out dams, draining lakes inundating towns.
  • Trump is totally bonkers, and
  • cops (in the oft chance, English is your second language.  dk:  police) in the United States are murdering black folk.

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World Meteorological Organization Report: Global Climate in 2015 -19

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Report: The Global Climate in 015 – 2019 // May 25, 2020

Recently the World Meteorological Organization published their 5 year update: “The Global Climate in 2015 – 2019”, comparing this period with the previous 5 year period and historical records.

Clearly, key climate change elements including

  • greenhouse gas levels,
  • atmospheric and ocean temperatures,
  • Greenland, Antarctica, and
  • alpine glacier ice mass loss,
  • heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and
  • extreme events including tropical cyclones, floods, tornadoes, etc are rapidly worsening.

I chat on the main findings of this report by focusing on the figures, both in this video and the next. Stay safe in our virus pandemic.

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World Meteorological Organization Report: The Global Climate in 2015 – 2019: Part 2 of 2 // May 25, 2020

Part two of two:  continues where first video, left off.


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You Are Here: Tipping Elements in Climate Systems, Canadian Geese

Stratocumulus Cloud Deck Collapse and other Tipping Elements in the Climate System that Can Smush Us // May 12, 2020

Stratocumulous cloud decks cover lots of ocean and block sunlight providing some cooling offset to GHG warming. Typically these clouds are 1 km above ocean surfaces and are about 370 meters thick, and are sustained by long wave radiation cooling at their tops.

As CO2 concentration increases, convective circulation resupplying moisture to the clouds from ocean evaporation can be disrupted, leading to less long wave cooling cutting off the source of surface moisture, leading to disintegration of the clouds and abrupt, acute surface warming of up to 8 C.
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Mechanisms, Evidence, and Impacts of Climate Tipping Elements: Earth System Dynamics // May 12, 2020

A new review paper called “ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements” was published online a few weeks ago and assessed the latest science on risks and impacts of various tipping elements. In the last video, here, and in the next video I chat about the risks of these tipping elements. The discussion includes the usual suspects:

  • Ice melt,
  • AMOC shutdown (other posts, on AMOC, here)
  • Methane release from hydrated and permafrost,
  • Amazon forest collapse, etc., but significantly included a new one called
  • Stratospheric cloud deck evaporation.

Ref: ‘ESD Reviews: Mechanisms, Evidence, and Impacts of Climate Tipping Elements‘, Seaver Wang and Zeke Hausfather.  The Breakthrough Institute, Oakland, USA, Received: 26 Mar, Accepted for review: 20 Apr, Discussion started: 21 Apr 2020.

Abstract:  ‘Increasing attention is focusing upon climate tipping elements – large-scale earth systems anticipated to respond through positive feedbacks to anthropogenic climate change by shifting towards new long-term states. In some but not all cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Developing greater understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with ten notable climate tipping elements.
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Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System // May 11, 2020

In 2007 Lenton et. al drew on results from experts at an international conference to identify “Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system”. They assessed the likelihood of thresholds being reached to trigger tipping, timescales of tipping and transition times, and consequences to the climate system and humanity.

Canada Geese and their chicks have hijacked my bike…
And, of course, the famed Shackleton

A new review paper published in the journal Earth System Dynamics assessed the latest scientific analysis on risks and impacts of the various tipping elements. Here, and in the next few videos I chat about the risks of these tipping elements.

Ref: ‘Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system.
Lenton Kriegler Hall Lucht, Rahmstorf, Schellnhuber, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Feb 12;105(6):1786-93.

Abstract‘The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point.

We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points‘.
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How Aerosol Driven Water Droplet Concentrations Control Low Level Cloud Coverage Affecting Climate // May 8, 2020

In a nutshell, with more aerosols (particles and non-water liquids) in the atmosphere, there are more cloud condensation nuclei so many more and smaller water droplets in clouds. Thus clouds are much more reflective of incoming sunlight, causing some cooling to partially offset GHG warming.

Smaller water droplets in clouds means that they rain less, become thicker, hold more water, cover a larger fraction of the sky and persist for a lot longer causing even more cooling offset. With global industrial shutdowns from our coronavirus responses, we have less aerosols in the skies, thus less of this cooling offset occurring.
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Science of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Vital to Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Models and Projections // May 7, 2020

In this video and the next I explain the basic science of

  • Direct aerosol effects (scattering; blocking sunlight) and
  • Indirect effects (smaller cloud droplets increasing reflectivity in the Twomey Effect, suppressing drizzle,
  • Increasing cloud heights and cloud lifetimes in the Albrecht Effect, and Heating Effects dissipating clouds).

Scientists can determine the number of droplets Nd and the vertical updraft velocity (Wb) at the base of Marine Stratospheric Clouds from satellite measurements, allowing determination of the number of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) which is key to understanding aerosol and cloud climate interactions.
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Posted in Climate Change, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

“Climate Niche” Shifting Away From Where Most Live

   

Humanities Preferred “Climate Niche” is Shifting Away From Where Most of Us Live Now // May 5, 2020

Why do we live where we do? Many complex social reasons exist, but fundamentally most of us live in a “climate niche” with Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) 11 to 15 C (52 to 59 F), consistent for humanity over the last 6000 years. This will shift significantly over the next 50 years.

  • The mean human will experience a temperature rise of +7.5 C, which is about 2.3 times the mean global temperature rise.
  • Furthermore, without migration 3.5 billion people will be exposed to MAT’s greater than 29 C that cover 19% of global land area;
  • this MAT is presently only found on 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the Sahara Desert.

Ref: Future of the human climate niche.
Xu, Kohler, Lenton, Svenning, and Scheffer. PNAS first published May 4, 2020.

We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints.

‘We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.’
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What do you think about the Three UFO Videos Officially Released Recently by the Pentagon? // May 5, 2020

In this age of disruption both from abrupt climate change and exponential COVID-19 pandemic growth, we often need distractions. This is a very interesting and thought provoking diversion.

  • I elucidate my thoughts on three videos officially released by the Pentagon on “Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon” which the rest of us call UFOs.
  • I discuss the naval aviation footage and suggest explanations and chat about how we really need the military to release much more detail in order to reach an assessment.
  • I do think that there is almost certainly life out there in space; however can it contact us: see Drake equation?

Ref: Pentagon declassifies three UFO videos taken by Navy pilots.
TUE, APR 28 20206:32 AM ED, Natasha Turak.  CNBC:

The declassification of the videos late Monday was meant to “clear up any misconceptions by the public on whether or not the footage that has been circulating was real,” the Pentagon said in a statement Monday.

The footage, which shows unidentified objects flying at high speeds in the Earth’s atmosphere along with audio of Navy pilots expressing shock and awe, was initially leaked in 2007 and 2017‘.
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Everyone OUTSIDE For Weeks, Suppressing Pandemic?

Could we all live OUTSIDE for a few weeks to SUPPRESS the Coronavirus Pandemic? // Apr 23, 2020

Last video I discussed extensive detailed results in a scientific study (link immediate below) looking at coronavirus virus transmission in over 7000 cases. There was only ONE case in which a person outdoors transmitted the virus to another person outdoors.

This is quite an amazing result, and needs to be studied carefully in further work. It obviously suggests that we may be safer outside, as long as we maintain social (physical) distancing. Does it mean that if the world moved outside for a few weeks to we could suppress the disease? Or perhaps if every window in every building was opened wide would maybe that be enough?

Ref:  What Makes The Novel Coronavirus So Contagious?  By Ben L. Callif, April 9, 2020.  Eleven minute read at Medium.
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How the CORONAVIRUS is an INDOOR disease // Apr 22, 2020

I chat about recent scientific findings on coronavirus spreading being almost exclusively indoors. In the study, case reports and contact tracing were looked at in 320 municipalities in China, examining all outbreaks involving 3 or more cases; the major characteristics and indoor environmental issues associated with the enclosed spaces were studied.

The venues where the outbreaks occurred were in 6 main categories:

  • homes,
  • transport,
  • food,
  • entertainment,
  • shopping, and lastly
  • miscellaneous.

Only a SINGLE outbreak occurred OUTSIDE, and it involved only two cases!!!
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Why Coronavirus is so Contagious: It is like Wet Noodles that you Throw Against a Wall and Stick // Apr 21, 2020

Third in a new series of 4 videos (now 5) on my latest climate change and coronavirus musings.  Topics:

  • Arctic polar vortex collapse spilling cold dry air south into US Deep South, clashing with warm humid air moving north from crazily warm Gulf of Mexico Sea-Surface Temperature anomaly 2.25 C, creating huge storms with tornado outbreaks, including a huge pair (2 mile wide; 1 mile wide) cutting up to 80 mile devastation swath.
  • 5 C temperature anomaly over huge Eurasian region. Dimming?
  • Why coronavirus spread is huge; prion-like features and “wet-noodle” stickiness.
  • Large China contact tracing study on how spread is indoors, NOT outdoors.

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Not so Greatest but Latest on the Coronavirus and Abrupt Climate Change // Apr 20, 2020

Second in a series. Latest musings on climate and coronavirus.
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Logic 101: COVID-19 Spreading Characteristics: What We Know

Logic 101: COVID-19 Spreading Characteristics: What We Know // Apr 15, 2020

Logic 101: Coronavirus Spread:

  • 1) The virus can be spread by people who never develop any symptoms.
  • 2) People that get sick may have no symptoms for two weeks.
  • 3) People travel all around the world; can spread virus anywhere within a day or two.
  • 4) Virus has exponential growth with high R0 value.
  • 5) China locked down 50-70 million people starting Jan 23rd.
  • 6) Given 1 to 5, obviously the virus will go global. What more did anyone need to know? Blaming China, WHO, a specific leader etc. now is counterproductive; we need global cooperation and sharing of the science to face our challenges.

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The Latest and Not so Greatest Musings on Abrupt Climate Change and Coronavirus Happenings // Apr 16, 2020

I filmed a new series of 4 videos on my latest climate change and coronavirus musings. Topics:

  • Arctic polar vortex collapse spilling cold dry air south into US Deep South, clashing with warm humid air moving north from crazily warm Gulf of Mexico Sea-Surface Temperature anomaly 2.25 C, creating huge storms with tornado outbreaks, including a huge pair (2 mile wide; 1 mile wide) cutting up to 80 mile devastation swath.
  • Huge 5 C temperature anomaly this year over huge Eurasian region.
  • Dimming? Why coronavirus spread is huge; prion-like features and “wet-noodle” stickiness.

Massive China contact tracing study on how spread is indoors, NOT outdoors. And more…

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MAGI: Make America Gravely ill Again. Blue Ocean Event, Computer Simulations Say

First Arctic Blue Ocean Event: What Computer Simulations and Statistical Trend Analysis Tells Us // Apr 6, 2020

In this video and the next, I continue my examination of Arctic sea ice data which gives us a clear picture of its present state and clearly shows the relentless downward trends in extent, thickness, and volume that allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about when it will vanish in a Blue Ocean Event (BOE). It is just a matter of time before the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking about? I give my own educated opinion (guess), and draw on some recent peer-reviewed scientific papers that attempt to narrow down the timing of the first BOE, from both computer modelling simulations and statistical trend analysis.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event: Timing Gleamed from Statistical Trend Analysis and Computer Simulations // Apr 6, 2020


Second video, continues from above.
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Horrifyingly Simple Math: USA Coronavirus Cases to Soon EXCEED Total of Cases in Rest of the WORLD // Apr 6, 2020

Instead of MAGA (Make America Great Again) the US leadership has MAGI (Make America Gravely ill). Ontario just released its virus mortality expectations of between 3,000 and 15,000 people, down from an expected 100,000 due to measures taken. We can do the opposite calculation with Trump (in a future video), and estimate the number of deaths in the US attributable to his denial, misinformation, and bungling.

But for this video, I compare :

  • a) the ratio of US cases to the rest of the world, and
  • b) the ratio of US cases to the world total.
  • As of April 5th a) was over 35% and b) was almost 26%. If trends continue; there will soon be more cases in the US then in the total rest of the world added up together. Horrifying, and completely avoidable with a competent leader.
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Sounds from a Million Ice Crystals Jiggling in the Waves: Frazil Ice on the Ottawa River in Spring // Apr 6, 2020

I found the Perfect Social (Physical) Distancing Spot on a Breakwater on the Ottawa River today: there isn’t a soul within many hundreds of meters of me; it’s just me and the Sun and the Waves and the River and the Fresh Spring Air. There is no better way to spend some time.

Steady Westerly Breeze generated waves have shredded many of the remaining remnants of river ice into tiny ice crystals (Frazil Ice), which create beautiful, somewhat eerie and haunting sounds as they collide into each other under the mechanical churning of the waves.

I cycled to this spot; only 26 km (16 miles) round trip today, a rest from my Saturday trip of 114.4 km (71.1 miles). Nothing beats great exercise for lifting ones spirits during this time of abrupt climate change and coronavirus pandemic.
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Going. Going. GONE; but WHEN?

Arctic Sea-Ice: Going. Going. GONE; but WHEN? // Apr 2, 2020

The essential go-to website for near real-time plots on the Arctic sea-ice can be easily found by Googling “Arctic sea ice graphs”. Personally, I really appreciate the effort and expertise of Zach Labe who generates numerous graphs and animations that clearly show the rapidly decreasing trends in Arctic sea ice extent, thickness, and volume.

  • In this video and the next, I examine this data which gives us a clear picture of the present state of the Arctic and from the trends allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about the near term trends.
  • It is just a matter of time before the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking?
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Coronavirus: What can you do and how can it end? From Alex Smith’s Radio Ecoshock, an interview from April 1, 2020.

A COLOSSAL BLUNDER HITS CANADA: PAUL BECKWITH
I called our regular scientist correspondent Paul Beckwith to discuss his three part-video on whether we can expect extreme heat events as the industrial shut-down lowers air pollution. I think that could happen.

‘It is important. But first – Paul blew me away by predicting Canada is not an oasis from the Corona pandemic developing just south of the border. He says Canadians made “colossal blunders” that could cost us dearly in weeks to come‘.

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Arctic Polar Vortex North Pole to Greenland Shift: Ozone Hole, Sea-Ice Loss

Arctic Polar Vortex Shift from North Pole to Greenland: Large Ozone Hole and Sea-Ice Loss // Mar 28, 2020

I predicted 1.5 years ago that Arctic sea-ice loss will shift the jet stream center of rotation to Greenland’s center at 73 degrees N latitude. This shift essentially occurred, at least temporarily, about one week ago; the center of rotation of the polar vortex moved near the northern tip of Greenland.

The tight polar vortex with a cold upper atmosphere (recall as the surface warms the upper atmosphere cools) has created a large Arctic ozone hole, mentioned over a decade ago as an Arctic tipping point. With more air exchange from low to high latitudes, the Arctic sea ice peaked early (Mar 2) and has since been rapidly declining.
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Shackleton the Explorer Goes Nuts in Quarantine // Mar 28, 2020

In these dire times of coronavirus exponential growth and ongoing abrupt climate change, I hope that you are all coping as well as possible. Clearly, Shackleton the Explorer is letting off steam, and is wondering why his human family rarely leaves the house these days.

Me, I have been able to exercise so much lately that I am in the best shape I have been in for decades; for example I biked 25 kilometres (over 14 miles) and walked 10 kilometres (over 6 miles) today, and have lowered my resting heart rate from about 52 to 47 over the last month. I am also boosting my immune system with copious vegetables and vitamins and other stuff. Take care, and enjoy “Shacks” antics. Please share some of your own personal coping stories and inspiration in the comments section:)!!
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Epic.  Selection by dk:

Posted in Basic Science, Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Impact of Coronavirus On Global Dimming

Magnitude of Global Dimming from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 1 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020

Global Dimming from industrial and transportation aerosols is likely between 0.25C and 1.1C with a best estimate of 0.5C. As global industry/transportation shutters due to our coronavirus actions, the sky clears due to reduced pollution, unmasking global dimming.

My educated best guess on the size of the direct effect warming pulse is 0.25C globally if half of industry shuts down, realized as a 0.5C warning over land and 0.125C warming over the oceans. Maybe double these numbers with indirect effects from cloud changes. Also, daily temperature range will increase, specifically due to shutdown of the airline industry.

Ref:  ‘Coronavirus: Air pollution and CO2 fall rapidly as virus spreads‘, Matt McGrath 19 March 2020, BBC
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Amount of Global Dimming Expected from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 2 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020

Continues where last video, left off.
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Warming we can expect from Global Dimming reduction due to Coronavirus Industrial Shutdowns: 3 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020

Continues where second video, left off. Video three of three.
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Continues where last video, left off.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Coronavirus Tsunami

Modelling the Coming Coronavirus Tsunami: Imperial College Paper // Mar 18, 2020

This new paper from Imperial College models the expected number of cases of coronavirus and the total number of deaths that we would expect in both the UK (Great Britain) and in the USA.

The modelling starts with a worst case scenario of no interventions, and projects total deaths of 510,000 in the UK (peaking early June) and 2.2 million in the USA (peaking late June) with a caveat: these are direct deaths, not accounting for spillover effects to other critical care patients without the virus).

It then models the effects of so-called Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to shift the curve to a later date, and lower the peak. These include shutting schools and universities, social distancing, self-isolation, quarantines, to shutting cities and countries.

Ref:  ‘Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand‘.  16 March 2020, Link to 20 page article, here. here.
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Will the Coronavirus Pandemic Weaken in the Northern Hemisphere as we move into Summer? // Mar 17, 2020

I discuss a new scientific paper that examines the present coronavirus spread and shows correlations of the hardest hit regions to temperature and humidity changes with latitude. This is only one paper, but it seems to indicate that the hardest hit regions are within an average temperature band from 5C to 11C, with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/cm3). If this is confirmed in subsequent scientific studies then it could indicate that Covid-19 is a seasonal respiratory virus. Promising (since it would slow down in summer); but too early to tell for sure at the moment.
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History of Pandemics; Will Covid-19 Slow Down in Summer? // Mar 17, 2020

Throughout human history, as we spread across the world we have had infectious diseases as a constant companion. Outbreaks continue to happen, even more frequently in our modern era.

First, I discuss a timeline over the last 2000 years and chat about some of histories most deadly pandemics, including the biggies such as Black Death (Bubonic Plague); with 200 million dead (30-50% of Europe); smallpox killing 90% of Native Americans, and the Spanish flu.

Next I discuss what we know about seasonal cycles of many infectious diseases, and then some recent papers considering whether Covid-19 may be seasonal, perhaps weakening as we head to Northern Hemisphere summer.
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Recently, with the much esteemed Stuart H. Scott–cf Stuart Gaia, twitter hereScientistsWarning.org, and Scientists Warning TV, on YouTube.

As usual, in very, very good company:


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Additional recent, videos:

A few more, for good measure:


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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW

Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 1 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020

On March 10th a vitally important article was published online by Tomas Pueyo, and I chat about it in this video and my next two. Even if you do not understand it all, or my chat about it, please forward it to your politicians, community leaders and business leaders.

It can save a large number of lives, but action needs to be taken immediately. I can not stress this enough. The most important concept discussed is determining the true number of cases from the diagnosed number of cases, and the vital importance of social isolation in your community.

Ref:  ‘Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now‘, by Tomas Pueyo.  Link to excellent article, at Medium.com, Mar 10, 2020.
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 2 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020

Continues, first video above.


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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 3 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020

Continues, from second video above.
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Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change

Chat on Hard-Hitting New Report: “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change”: 1 of 2 // Mar 7, 2020

A new report called “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change” came out last month, produced by a National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change, within The Center for Climate and Security.

I discuss the key points for each of the two warming scenarios:

  • in the near term with 1-2 C of warming, and
  • in the medium-long term with 2-4+ C of warming. Impact threats to society are already very high, and soon to be catastrophic, according to this hard-hitting report.

Ref: ‘A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HOW LIKELY WARMING SCENARIOS INDICATE A CATASTROPHIC SECURITY FUTURE‘:  click here, to download full 86 page file, or read only format off of web, here.  From February 2020.
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A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change; also Coronavirus Growth Rates: Part 2 of 2 // Mar 7, 2020

I continue my chat on the dire report: A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change. I then discuss how China went from 278 cases of COVID-19 to 80,000 cases in 45 days.

If USA growth rates are similar, 401 cases today would grow to about 80,000 cases by April 21st. Growth rates in different countries can be similarly estimated, allowing you to project and prepare for what will likely happen; much variation between different countries depends on resources and actions. Some epidemiologists think 20-60% of the global population will be infected.
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Coronavirus Effect on Global Warming and Global Warming Impact on Pandemic Risks

Coronavirus Effect on Global Warming and Global Warming Impact on Pandemic Risks: Part 1 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020

The Coronavirus has shuttered about 25% of Chinese industrial production for weeks on end. Since Chinese production and industrial activist accounts for about 1/4 of global production, 1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16 or about 6% of global production has been halted. Thus, my back of the envelope best guess has global CO2 emissions down about 6%, and globally produced aerosols down about 6% as well.

Since global dimming from aerosols is thought to be between 0.25 to 1.1 C, if we take the 1 C number as an upper limit, then the Coronavirus has resulted in global warming of about 0.06 C; with regional warming over China of about 0.25 C.
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Coronavirus and Climate Change: Intimate Connections: Part 2 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020

It is well known that as our planet rapidly warms, there are more disease vectors that affect human health. Diseases such as Zika Virus, West Nile Disease, Ebola, Malaria, etc. propagate faster and more severely in warmer regions.

Looking at history, when Europeans went to warmer lands of long established civilizations (Incas, Aztecs, and Mayans) it was their diseases that wiped out these Indigenous populations. Immune systems of higher latitude nations (Europeans) were stronger than those of people in lower latitude regions, the latter had no immunity to diseases the invaders inadvertently brought in.
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Habitat Stress Forcing Poleward Animal Migration Increases Risk of New Virus Generation: Part 3 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020

It is thought that the coronavirus originated in Wuhan’s wild animal market, perhaps moving first from bats to a small mammal and then to humans. We know that as the globe rapidly warms, many animal species are forced to migrate towards the poles in search of more optimal habitats as their existing regions become too warm and dry to continue to sustain them.

This migration causes these animals to interact more with other species, and become more stressed, weakening their immune systems and increasing the probability of them becoming virus carriers and propagators.

Ref:  ^DJI, aka Dow or “Dow Jones Industrial Average“.


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Skating with the Wolves (and Ranting about Climate Coronavirus Connections) // Mar 1, 2020

Nothing beats an early morning vigorous skate through the Quebec snow covered forests with the wolves. The ice was perfectly flat and nearly pristine along this 3 km loop in the woods at Lac-des-Loups, and the path was almost deserted. Essentially, this was the perfect place for me to film a rant video while skating, to summarize some of the key connections between abrupt climate system change and the Coronavirus, and vice-versa.

It is very clear to me that climate change increases the risk of viral and bacterial disease outbreaks around the planet, and when these outbreaks are large enough to become global pandemics they significantly affect climate. If you like my videos, please donate at http://paulbeckwith.net and Thanks for Watching!!
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Skating Seven Miles Through the Beautiful Winter Forest in Lac-des-Loups (Lake of Wolves) Quebec!) // Mar 1, 2020

Last video focused on the connections between abrupt climate system change and the connections to the coronavirus. Some people rightly complained that as I skated in a beautiful forest landscape in Quebec they just saw my face and not enough of the scenery; this video is for those people.

   

Here I focus on the skating path and the wonderful snow laden trees bordering the path as I navigate through the forest. As I post this video, I am resting from my hour long skate covering over 7 miles (12 km), which is 4 complete loops) through the forest , according to my Garmin Fenix watch, which tells me everything about my body; in fact more than anybody would ever want to know!!
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Climate Catastrophe Warning in J.P.Morgan’s, Risky Business – Climate and Macroeconomy

Climate Catastrophe Warning in J.P.Morgan’s: Risky Business: the Climate and The Macroeconomy: 1 of 2 // Feb 24, 2020

…it is clear that the Earth is on an unsustainable trajectory. Something will have to change at some point if the human race is going to survive.

Economic Research Report: J.P.Morgan, Jan 14, 2020 titled “Risky Business: the climate and the macroeconomy” (Google it!)’.

The New York bank (J.P.Morgan) is one of 33 powerful financial institutions to have provided an estimated total of $1.9 Trillion to the fossil fuel sector between 2016 and 2018”:  Guardian Oct 2019, ‘Top investment banks provide billions to expand fossil fuel industry‘.

Clearly, the money and power in society is pushing us at ever faster rates towards a barren Earth
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Forward J.P.Morgan’s report: “Risky business: The Climate and the Macroeconomy” to Climate Deniers // Feb 24, 2020

I continue to chat about the J.P.Morgan Special Report, referenced above.

It is one thing for a tree-hugger or climate scientist to talk about our impending climate catastrophe, but another thing entirely for the largest investment bank funding fossil fuels to report using these dire terms.

Thus, I highly recommend you forward this video and link to politicians and your climate denier friends.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Expected to Greatly Accelerate as Southern Ocean Warms

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Expected to Greatly Accelerate as Southern Ocean Warms: Part 1 of 3 // Feb 19, 2020

An island off the northernmost tip of Antarctica reached a record breaking temperature of 20.75 C (69.35 F) for the first time, after setting a record the previous week of 18.3 C (65 F), besting the previous record of 17.5 C (63.5 F) in March 2015.

I show on Earth Nullschool how:

  • a dip in the Southern Hemisphere jet stream let warm air penetrate the Antarctica Peninsula;
  • temperatures over this region in the last 50 years have increased by 3 C (5.4 F),
  • which is 4 to 5 times the global average rise.

However it is the temperature rise in the Southern Oceans that greatly accelerates West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt.

Ref:  ‘Ancient Antarctic ice melt increased sea levels by 3+ metres – and it could happen again’, by Sherry Landow, 12 Feb, 2020, from unsw.edu.au.
Ref2: Seymour Island.
Ref3: Antarctic island hits record temperature of 20.75C, 14 Feb 2020 BBC.
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How Southern Ocean Warming Drives Substantial Ice Mass Loss from Antarctica; Part 2 of 3 // Feb 20, 2020

I continue to discuss a new paper that examines:

  • how southern ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica early in the last interglacial period (129 to 116 thousand years ago),
  • and the implications of this today.

Back then, with warmer polar temperatures, global mean sea level was +6 to 9 m (roughly 20 to 30 feet) higher than today. With Greenland ice sheet melt contributing about 2 m, and ocean thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers contributing about 1 m; that means Antarctica would have contributed between 3 to 6 m, mostly from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).

 

Ref:  Eemian.

Ref2: ‘Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica‘, from Pnas, 11 Feb, 2020.
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How close are Southern Ocean Temperatures to a West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Point? Part 3 of 3 // Feb 20, 2020

I continue chatting on the new paper examining how southern ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica early in the last interglacial period (129 to 116 thousand years ago), and the implications for us today of accelerated melt and sea level rise.

According to the paper, an early last-interglacial warning of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) of 1.6 C relative to present day occurred; meanwhile SST temperatures bracketing coastlines of the most vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) increased as much as 1 C between 1981 and 2010. Not good; we may be very close to a tipping point.
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And, just in case you missed this recent prior series, from 11 Feb: ‘Sex-Crazed Grasshopper (Locust) Swarms Amplified by Climate Change Caused Extreme Desert Rainfall‘ and ‘Climate Induced Frenzy: Grasshopper Metamorphosis from Loner to Ravenous Super-Swarm Munchers‘.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Threat to Arctic Warming and Sea-Ice Loss is Ongoing

HELP!
Sub-title: I am stuck in Arctic Sea-Ice

Trace Halocarbon GHG Threat to Arctic Warming and Sea-Ice Loss is Ongoing: Part 2 of 2 // ggg

Continues where previous video from yesterday ‘New Paper: Banned Halocarbons Still Responsible for HALF of Arctic Warming and Sea-Ice Loss: 1 of 2‘, left off:

If this study is confirmed by many others, then between 1955 and 2005 about half of the surface warming in the Arctic, and about half of the Arctic sea-ice extent loss was actually due to the GHG (Green House Gases) effect from ODS (Ozone Depleting Substances), and not due to ozone changes.

After stabilizing for many years after the 1987 Montreal Protocol, the ODS CFC-11 (trichlorofluoromethane has been rising since 2013 or so from illicit production in China, according a separate paper. Our societies cannot afford to let these trace, long lived, huge GWP (Global Warming Potential) gases to rise in concentration in our atmosphere.

Ref:  HFC (Hydrofluorocarbons).

Ref:  ‘Substantial Twentieth -Century Arctic Warming, Caused by Ozone-Depleting Substances‘, 20 Jan, 2020–Nature by Polvani, Previdi, England, Chiodo, and Smith
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In case you missed it, here are three videos on arctic sea ice, starting with:  ‘When will Arctic Sea-Ice Vanish in the summer?‘, continues with ‘Going, Going…‘, and concludes with ‘Arctic Transition…

And if those were not enough, two videos, starting with ‘Incredibly Warm Weather in Europe…‘, and continues with ‘Our Abrupt Climate Disruption Bus…

That’s eight new videos, so that your job to take in a markedly wide view on weather and climate, is THAT much easier.  Donations to Paul, were and are, continue to be appreciated.  PayPal account is not required, just normal credit card.

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Live Interviews on Mainstream Canadian National TV Programs: CTV and CBC News

Beckwith’s Live Interviews on Mainstream Canadian National TV Programs: CTV and CBC News: 1 of 3 // Feb 2, 2020

When you start to wonder why I’ve had a video hiatus for a week or so, please rest assured that

  • I am on a massive learning quest (or succumbing to my chess addiction),
  • Reading huge numbers of books on all different topics: i.e. philosophy, to build better coping skills to deal with our existential crisis;
  • But most books are technical in various fields of endeavor.

    

I fortuitously bought “Pandemic 1918: Eyewitness Accounts from the Greatest Medical Holocaust in Modern History” by Catharine Arnold a few months ago (a premonition??). Given the new coronavirus emergency it was very prudent to read it immediately.
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Beckwith’s Live Mainstream National Media (CTV TV and CBC TV) Interviews: Aussie Wildfires: 2 of 3 // Feb 2, 2020

Back in September, 2019 (oh so long ago, in abrupt climate system change time) I did a video on the record setting Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) over Antarctica and explained how it would deflect the jet streams (and this rain bearing storms) away from Australia in their summer (Canada’s northern hemisphere winter).

The rest is history, as they say.

  • Australia has been hit by extreme heat and dryness, and thus ongoing apocalyptic wildfires.
  • As the SSW subsided, heavy rain and golf-ball” sized hailstorms hit,
  • Then back to drought and massive dust storms.

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Beckwith’s Interviews Live On-Air with Canada’s National TV Broadcasters: Aussie Wildfires: 3 of 3 // Feb 2, 2020

Over the last month I have had six or seven on-air TV interviews with Canada’s largest private broadcaster (CTV News) and another with Canada’s largest public broadcasters (CBC News). In this final video of my three part video series I continue to play the recorded TV news clips, and discuss:

 

  • The keystone role that abrupt climate system change has in driving Australia’s catastrophic wildfires.
  • I also discuss the jaw-dropping ineptitude of governments to respond to our ongoing climate casino reality.

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Ice Carving Competition at Ottawa’s Yearly
WinterLude Festival (soon to be WaterLude?).

Bench is made of ice (I was on the cold seat!)

 

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Climate System Change Update Live from Canadian University Chess Championship Skittles Room

Climate System Change Update Live from Canadian University Chess Championship Skittles Room

Live climate change reporting from the skittles room before the final round of the Canadian University Chess Championship team tournament at beautiful Wilfred Laurier University in snowy Kitchener, Ontario.

  

We got 20-30 cm of snow; eastern Newfoundland received almost a meter of snow; snowfall rates of 10 cm per hour; winds up to 157 km/h (Cat. 2 hurricane wind equivalent).

Needless to say, snowdrifts covered many cars and even some houses, and many people had to literally dig themselves out. Check out the online photos. Australia is finally catching a break from the wildfires and heat.

The Sudden Stratospheric Warming that switched on in September just switched off, so jet streams could bring moisture and rainfall over Australia to put out fires.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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How Arctic Ocean Blue Ocean State Will Crush Humanity Like a Bug


How Arctic Ocean Blue Ocean State Will Crush Humanity Like a Bug: Part 1 of 3 // Jan 10, 2020

In my previous two videos I discussed how the reflectivity of the Arctic region reduced from 52% to 48% between 1979 and 2011, with global average warning 0.21 W/m2 (1/4 that of CO2).

Now I explain the newest science from 2019 on how a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet 0.71 W/m2 with expected cloud invariance (or 2.24 W/m2 with clear skies, or 0.37 W/m2 if overcast). This equals 1 trillion tons of CO2 or 25 years of warming. i.e. global food shortage chaos.
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‪Another TV interview from Monday the 6th:  I chatted earlier today on CTVNews about the horrible fires, and we covered impacts to First Nations people.
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Here on Extinction Radio again, Episode 102 – 10th December 2019 – Paul Beckwith live from CoP 25 in Madrid.  The interview with founder and creator, Mike Ferrigan, has downloadable versions in both video and audio for this episode.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Arctic Sea-Ice Loss and Literal Darkening of the Arctic Causing Warming Amplification

Arctic Sea-Ice Loss and Literal Darkening of the Arctic Causing Warming Amplification: Part 1 of 2 // Jan 7, 2020

I am back after my much needed holiday break. I am chomping at the bit and ready to go. Here I discuss how the Arctic region (from 80 to 90 degrees N) albedo (reflectivity) declined from reflecting 52% of sunlight in 1979 to reflecting only 48% of the sunlight in 2011. This decline occurred mostly in regions where the Arctic sea ice melted out, and was not compensated by cloud cover since the latter did not increase significantly. Arctic temperatures thus increased by 3x the global average.

Ref from 2014 paper by Pistone, Eisenman, Ramanathan:  ‘Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice‘.
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Darkening Arctic with Loss of Sea-Ice and Snow Cover, Consequences of Blue-Ocean State: Part 2 of 2 // Jan 7, 2020

How much Arctic darkening will occur with an ice-free Arctic Ocean (Blue-Ocean State)? How much more warming will occur? To get a handle on the answers I continue to delve into the scientific literature. According to a recent paper, the annually-averaged Arctic Ocean planetary albedo under ice-free and cloud-free conditions would be 14% over the region. Compare this to the estimated cloud-free albedo of 39% in 1979. The Arctic is becoming a much Darker place; cloud growth does not compensate for ice loss.

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Three Interviews: Spencer, CTV, and Radio EcoShock

91 Beckwith After COP 25 // Dec 23, 2019

Here Paul is again interviewed by Metta Spencer.  Previously, Paul was on her show, on 14 October, as shared here, proximate to the Young Turks.  As she says:  ‘Canadian climatologist Paul Beckwith attended the COP 25 meeting in Madrid that ended in a stalemate. He and Metta agree that there is too little progress by elected government officials, and they consider ways of speeding up responses to the emergency. Beckwith favors sprinkling iron in oceans to encourage plankton and feeding CO2 to limestone.’
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New CTV national TV news clip, from 12 noon yesterday.  Click link here.
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The Dark Edges Of Climate Change:‬
‪I chat on EcoShock Radio with the great Alex Smith about climate restoration while I was at COP25 in Madrid Spain.  This is from 18 Dec, after Paul got back (dk).

Paul Beckwith Reporting From COP25 Climate Conference In Madrid‘:

The world’s largest climate meeting wrapped up in Madrid. It is called The Conference of the Parties. This was COP25. There were no headlines other than world leaders again agreed to let Earth slip farther into climate disaster. Radio Ecoshock had our own observers on site, including regular guest Paul Beckwith. Paul is a genuine climate scientist who often teaches at the University of Ottawa. Now he is also Professor to the World with his in-depth series of climate videos on You tube.

‘Outside the COP25 climate conference in Madrid’s December, climate activists gathered to call for real action. But a small number of experts claim we can “restore” the climate with technology. Canadian scientist Paul Beckwith is tracking that web of small foundations and micro-investors pushing everything from carbon-capturing concrete to fertilizing ocean plankton. All that becomes more desperate as yet another gathering of world leaders abandons the future to stalling and words‘.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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What WE Must Do: Wadhams-Carter-Beckwith-Valdez Chat On DIRE Climate Emergency


Wadhams, Carter, Beckwith, Valdez chat on our DIRE Climate Emergency, and on what WE Must Do: 1 of 2 // Dec 22, 2019

In the late afternoon of Friday Dec.13th at COP25 in Madrid Spain, Dr. Peter Wadhams, Dr, Peter Carter, myself (Paul Beckwith), and Regina Valdez chat on our dire, ongoing climate emergency, and about what we need to do to extricate ourselves from the crisis and ensure future survival on Earth. Whether or not humanity will be successful is not the issue; we have no option but to do what is necessary to survive with our planetary resources and human ingenuity, for as long as we can.
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Wadhams, Carter, Beckwith, Valdez chat on our DIRE Climate Emergency, and on what WE Must Do: 2 of 2 // Dec 22, 2019

Second of two videos, continues where first video left off.
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Back in Canada after the COP25.
A winter wonderland…
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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European Kids Ask Paul About Climate Change, at COP25 Madrid

 

Kids Across Europe Ask Paul Questions About Climate Change: COP25 Madrid Spain: Part 1 of 3 // Dec 20, 2019

I am extremely happy and grateful to post this video and the next two from my adventures in Madrid, Spain at COP25. My friend Alfonso Soria put out the word to his many teacher friends across Europe that climate scientist Paul was in Madrid.

Teachers in different countries recorded their kids (of all different ages) asking me questions on global warming/climate. The questions were awesome! Enjoy this holiday treat; I found it very touching. Thank you kids and teachers!!
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Dispatches from COP 25 Climate Change Conference in Madrid
By Alex Carlin | December 13th, 2019 at 7:07 PM (CST)

This is a series of annual special reports for CMD from guest contributor Alex Carlin about his observations at the United Nations climate conference — and this year from the “People’s Summit” in Santiago, Chile as well.

Shifting “Center of Cold” Underscores Critical Need for Climate Restoration
December 13, 2019–Here at the UN Climate Change Conference in Madrid (COP 25), I ran into a great scientist whom I have followed for years, Paul Beckwith. Paul is a renowned climate system scientist at the University of Ottawa, who puts out many informative and entertaining videos that have helped innumerable people, including myself, get up to speed on what he calls “abrupt climate system change,” where you ask questions like,

will Earth become Venus any time soon?” In fact, his videos were my first entry into climate science, and I found them to be extremely well done, effective, and fun to watch.

As I interviewed Paul here, he enlightened me about Greenland becoming the “center of cold” in the Arctic. That is, if we don’t prevent the Arctic Ocean from losing its perennial ice, it will become a blue water ocean for most of the year, and Greenland will be colder than the North Pole.

Paul said, “This will lead to profound changes. Greenland is going to be exposed, and melt rates are going to go way way up,” leading to biblical sea level rises. But beyond submerging Miami, he explained that,

The center of cold in the Arctic will move fairly far to the south: from the North Pole (90 degrees North) to the center of Greenland (73 degrees North). So, since the jet air streams which travel around the Earth actually circle around the ‘center of cold,’ this will cause them to become even wavier than they are now, and also it will bring a jet stream ‘trough’ over North America for extended periods of time.

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Oceans Science Behind Our Climate Emergency: COP25 Madrid

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The Science Behind Our Climate Emergency in the Oceans: COP25 Madrid: Part 1 of 2 // Dec 11, 2019

Continuing on the climate emergency theme, myself, Dr. Peter Carter from the Climate Emergency Institute, and Regina Valdez discuss the oceans, and the scientific justification for an oceanic climate emergency. Clearly, as oceans warm, expand, acidify, and have reduced vertical mixing of oxygen and nutrients, the entire marine ecosystem from the base of the food chain to the highest trophic levels are all threatened. Life on land requires life in the oceans.
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Our Oceanic Climate Emergency: COP25 Madrid: Life on Land Needs Life in the Oceans: Part 2 of 2 // Dec 11, 2019

Second of two videos, continues from above.
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A Rant Through Madrid Spain’s Metro System on my way to the COP25 // Dec 11, 2019

The Madrid Metro System is an extremely clean, efficient, modernized transportation system, and many stations, like this one near the COP25 were adorned with posters chock full of interesting climate emergency slogans.

  

I couldn’t resist a stroll through the corridors, filming what was there and recording the messaging for the COP. Spain, Madrid specifically, did a great job in pulling together all the preparations for the conference with less than a months notice.

   
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Global Climate Emergency Scientific Justification, COP25 Press Conference

  

Anxiously preparing for my #COP25 press conference
in 1.5 hours or so. Today’s topic is the scientific
justification that we are in an urgent climate emergency

Global Climate Emergency Scientific Justification: COP25 Madrid Press Conference: Part 1 of 2 // Dec 5, 2019

The World Meteorological Organization-WMO reported global average temperatures 1.1C higher than 19th century levels.

Paris 1.5C and 2C targets are relative to a pre-industrial baseline (1750). Thus, add 0.3C to the WMO number so warming is already 1.4C.  How can this not be a climate emergency?

Making the case for scientific justification of a global climate emergency, myself, Dr Peter Carter from the Climate Emergency Institute, and Regina Valdez chat.  We are at the COP25 Conference, right now, in Madrid Spain.


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Scientific Justification of Global Climate Emergency: Part 2 of 2 // Dec 5, 2019

Second of two videos, continues from above.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Climate Restoration to Ensure Life’s Long-Term Survival on our Planet: 1 of 3

Packing for Madrid.
Find Shackleton in the photo.

Climate Restoration to Ensure Life’s Long-Term Survival on our Planet: 1 of 3 // Nov 25, 2019

When people talk about what society needs to do about climate change you often hear talk of Mitigation (reducing emissions to zero by 2050) and Adaptation (dealing with the changes that are already occurring). We must add CLIMATE RESTORATION to this lexicon.

Climate restoration is all about ensuring that the climate for our children and grandchildren is returned to the healthy climate enjoyed by our parents and grandparents when they were young children.
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Help Paul Go to COP25/UN Climate Conference: donate to my GoFundMe here appreciated.Beckwith, Patrick Farnsworth and Michael Sliwa‘.  Click here for full episode.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Stunted Growth in Arctic Sea Ice Refreeze

Stunted Growth in Arctic Sea Ice Refreeze // Nov 19, 2019

Arctic sea ice behavior continues to surprise us. In August as it approached the September minimum, ice loss stalled out, and as it refroze in October/November ice growth stalled again. The high Arctic above 82.5 degrees latitude was 7 degrees C warmer than normal for October.

The jet streams crossed Greenland pushing warm air northward into the Arctic Ocean forming a strong cyclone bringing lots more heat and high winds over the struggling sea ice, as I show on Earth Nullschool.
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Recent interview on Extinction Radio:  ‘Episode 101 – 15th November 2019 – Paul Beckwith, Patrick Farnsworth and Michael Sliwa‘.  Click here for full episode.
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Help Paul Go to COP25/UN Climate Conference: donate to my GoFundMe here appreciated.Beckwith, Patrick Farnsworth and Michael Sliwa‘.  Click here for full episode.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Before saying goodnight for now, we wanted to share an extra feature, to share some of the work of two colleagues, Alex Smith of Radio EcoShock, from the May 8th, 2019 episode:  ‘Harsh News from the Weatherman‘.

It features Nick Humphrey, who dk recently connected with on Facebook after a several year rapprochement.  He has also been features on our friend Sandy Schoelles’s Environmental Coffeehouse.  SoundCloud is always a nice way to go, for those of you that can:

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Cop Out? Diddly Squat on COP25

Twenty Four Climate COPs and Diddly Squat. Can COP25 in Madrid be Different? // Nov 8, 2019

Twenty-four COPs and diddly squat. What can humanity possibly achieve at COP25? Many of us had high hopes for strong, concerted action on climate change after COP21’s Paris Agreement, only to have our hopes crushed like bugs.

  • Soon I am going to Madrid for COP25 and I will do everything in my power to educate policymakers in all governments about how our climate emergency is rapidly spiralling out of control. Wish me luck, and please see my ask below.
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Preparations for Madrid COP25 Climate Conference: A Plethora of Catastrophes to Present // Nov 9, 2019

As abrupt climate change accelerates and detrimental consequences to humanity notch upward, there is never a lack of material to present. I focus on:

  • what is happening,
  • why, and what we can expect in the next 5 years, 10 years, etc.
  • As I prepare for presentations at Madrid’s COP25,

I have a huge number of colourful infographics, gifs, and papers to draw on. I discuss some here; if you come across something exceptional then please alert me in a comment with a link.
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I am an independent, Climate System Scientist.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

It would mean a lot, if you would please consider supporting my Trip to COP25–expenses will include transportation/airfare from Ottawa, Canada, to Madrid, Spain, as well as meals and transportation while at COP.

Please also consider donating to support my work.  Please click here.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card.
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Call-Out To Support Beckwith’s Travel, Kicking Butt at COP25 Madrid

Paul Goes Soon to Madrid’s COP25 to Hang Out with Greta and Warn Our Planet on Our Climate Emergency // Nov 7, 2019

Many people like me that were going to attend the Conference of Parties (COP25) climate conference in Santiago, Chile in early December watched as civil unrest and protests worsened. Chile has been a relatively stable place in South America since the end of the Pinochet regime about 30 years ago.

Things were in limbo as the Chilean government cancelled the COP, but fortunately the mantle was taken up by Madrid in Spain. I head to Madrid in a few weeks.

  • Please consider a new–or further–donation to my PayPal, to help offset my out-of-pocket COP25 travel expenses.  Does not require an account, just credit card.

Or if you prefer, you can alternatively consider please donating at my GoFundMe page, at:

Paul Beckwith, well-known climate system scientist/physicist/engineer and educator, will be attending the UN Climate Change Conference from December 2 to December 13, 2019, in Madrid, Spain. The conference will feature the 25th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 25) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). His travel expenses will be out-of-pocket.

Based in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Paul is a respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos, usually pertaining to climate system science, abrupt climate change, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences…

During his time at COP 25, Paul will have the opportunity to participate in press conferences, provide climate reports, and meet with other climate scientists and activists, such as:

  • Greta Thunberg (Youth Swedish Climate Activist),
  • Dr. James Hansen (Ex-Nasa scientist/Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions Program at Columbia University),
  • Dr. Peter Wadhams (Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group) and
  • Dr. Peter Carter (Founder of the Climate Emergency Institute and IPCC Expert Reviewer).

Paul’s expenses will include transportation/airfare from Ottawa, Canada, to Madrid, Spain, as well as meals and transportation while in Madrid. He would be most grateful for every single donation.

Last but not least, very special thanks to both ScientistsWarning.org’s Core Team Members, Heidi Brault and Charles Gregoire.  They are very special persons.
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Sea Rise & Power Plants, War & Carbon, Epidemics, Military Carbon

Rapid Sea-Level Rise “Threat Multipliers” to Coastlines, Nuclear Power Plants, and Mega-Cities

The military worries about rapid climate system change as being a “threat multiplier”. As climate caused catastrophes worsen, risks to nuclear power plants, spent radioactive fuel storage, and the power grid proportionately increase.

  • We’ve already had nuclear power plants narrowly missing direct hits by massive hurricanes, specifically in Florida in the last few years.
  • We had to throttle down power output from nuclear plants using river cooling water during heat waves, due to high water temperatures, or low water levels. The biggest risk going forward is to coastal nuclear plants being swamped by rapid sea level rise.

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Waging War Has Gigantic Carbon Footprint that is NOT even Counted in Overall Global Emissions

Horribly, some major industries that cross borders, most significantly container shipping transport, and airline transport, for both goods and people, are not counted in global carbon budgets.

The military carbon footprints in most countries are not counted either, or even calculated consistently and publicly reported on or even acknowledged. Many, like the U.S. military, which has waged war since 2001, have an enormous carbon footprint. This has to change, with our climate emergency nobody gets a free pass. In this video and the next two, I continue to chat on risks of collapse of the U.S. military from abrupt climate system change.
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Climate Change Caused Power Grid Collapse and Disease Epidemics Could CRUSH U.S. Military Like a Bug

Cascading, devastating, consequences of abrupt climate change are hitting us (you and I) harder and harder, threatening to even topple the mighty U.S. military within 20 years.

One of the weakest links in modern economies is the rapidly degrading electrical power grid; think of the enormous size, power, and wealth in California’s high-tech industries, yet many companies and over a million people there have been facing rolling power outages with their decrepit, wildfire causing power line poles being toppled in Santa Ana winds, bringing economies to their knees.

  • What happens when the power no longer comes on?

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U.S. Military Could Collapse within 20 Years due to Climate Change: Pentagon Commissioned Report

A recent report by the U. S. Army War College (Pentagon commissioned) concludes that the U. S. Military could collapse within 20 years from climate change. This is a startling admission; that the most powerful military force that has ever existed on Earth could be rendered impotent, crushed like a bug, in less than 2 decades by climate change.

Clearly, the ability of abrupt climate system mayhem to utterly destroy humanities military, infrastructure, indeed human civilization itself is scarcely recognized or acted on by human power structures, yet is blindingly obvious to hordes of schoolchildren around the planet (and me).
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https://twitter.com/Sifill_LDF/status/1188796015949819904?s=20
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Can Hurricanes Trigger Earthquakes? Young Turks, Save The World Interview

How Hurricanes (Typhoons, Cyclones) Trigger Earthquakes As They Cross Continental Shelves: 1 of 2 // Oct 20, 2019

When Typhoon Hagibis hit Tokyo, Japan October 12th, 2019 there was a 5.7 earthquake the same day. A new paper discusses “stormquakes”, as a new discovery connecting small magnitude 3.5 earthquakes to tropical storms or nor’easters crossing “ocean banks” on continental shelves, exciting vibrations in the rock that can then propagate across entire continents.

However, this is not new stuff!! I discussed these connections with Hurricane Sandy in the fall of 2012, where the storm triggered three large earthquakes (magnitudes 7.8, 6.3, and 6.2) off Vancouver, Canada.

Ref:  ‘Typhoon Hagibis and Japan earthquake: Can hurricanes and typhoons trigger earthquakes?‘ by Kate Whitfield, Sun, Oct 13, 2019.
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Second video, Hurricanes Triggering Earthquakes: New Research on So-Called “StormQuakes”:  2 of 2here.
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On October 13th, Paul had a short–but well conducted–interview with John Iadarola on The Young Turks:  ‘Science EXPOSES Greta Thunberg Haters‘, on The Damage Report, TYT.

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Paul is ‘the first person interviewed when you open the Table of Contents pdf’, on Talk Show, TOC:  To Save The World.

Project Save the World is sponsored by Peace Magazine:  ‘We post a new hour-long video discussion every Monday at 8:00 pm EDT on Peace Magazine’s Facebook page, YouTube, and our website, http://tosavetheworld.ca, where you can endorse the Platform for Survival, 25 public policy proposals to reduce the risk of six threats to humankind.

Each sound track is available as an audio podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and other sites, as well as on our website‘.

Ref:  Their Project Save the World newsletter, can be downloaded here (word).
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How Nuclear Winter Halts Global Plant Growth, Causes Crop Failure & Mass Starvation

How a Limited Nuclear War (Pakistan v. India) Would Cause Global Food Shortages and Mass Starvation // Oct 18, 2019

Since the Cold War between the world’s major superpowers ended, people have become very complacent about the threats of nuclear war. A new research paper shatters this illusion by showing that even a relatively small and limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan, apart from killing more people in those countries (50-125 million) in less than one week than all World War II fatalities, would block 20 to 35% of surface sunlight and cool the surface 2C to 5C causing global crop failures; thus causing mass starvation and additional worldwide mayhem.

   

Ref:  India-Pakistan nuclear war could kill millions and threaten global starvation:  A study conducted by researchers from the University of Colorado Boulder and Rutgers University examines how such a hypothetical future conflict would have consequences rippling across the globe. Today, India and Pakistan each have about 150 nuclear warheads at their disposal, and that number is expected to climb to more than 200 by 2025.

Ref2:  Climate Wars: The Fight for Survival as the World Overheats, by Gwynne Dyer.
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How “Nuclear Winter” Halts Global Plant Growth Causing Crop Failure and Worldwide Mass Starvation // Oct 18, 2019

The unthinkable “nuclear winter” scenario occurs when detonations of many nuclear bombs over cities create intense fireballs which loft black carbon high into the stratosphere (upper atmosphere), blocking the Sun and thus halting global plant growth thus causing mass starvation. A Pakistan – India nuclear war (or US – Russia nuclear war) would:

  • block surface sunlight 20-35% (75%),
  • cool global surfaces 2-5C (10C),
  • reduce precipitation 15-30% (60%),
  • reduce Net Primary Productivity 15-30% (100%) on land;
  • 5-15% (50%) in the oceans,
  • and take 10-15 years to recover.

Ref:  To better grasp nuclear winter, scientists study wildfire cloud

    

A giant cloud from 2017 Canadian fires lingered in the atmosphere for a year, showing scientists how a cloud from a nuclear bomb would behave‘.
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Jaw-Dropping Arctic Methane Levels Up 9 x Global Average

Arctic Methane Measurements over Eastern Siberian Shelf Are Now the Highest Ever Measured: 1 of 2 // Oct 10, 2019

A group of Russian scientists led by Igor Semiletov, aboard one of the world’s largest research ships, the RV Akademik Mstislav Keldysh over the Arctic Ocean’s Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf have directly measured extremely high methane levels in the water column and atmosphere above. Seafloor permafrost sediments are thawing with high ocean temperatures and the organic material is then decomposed by microbes to produce methane which bubbles up to the surface. Methane levels in air were as high as 16 ppm which is 9x higher than global average levels.
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Jaw-Dropping Methane Levels up to 9 times Global Average Measured Recently Over Arctic Shelf: 2 of 2 // Oct 10, 2019

In our world of satellite data, computer models, and simulations, on-the-ground (on-the-ocean in this case!) field work is invaluable. UK’s Peter Wadham’s is the sea-ice expert and Russia’s Igor Semiletov is the Arctic methane expert, both exploring via numerous expeditions over many decades. Recent data from an expedition led by the latter report report stunning methane levels 9x higher than global averages. This is very serious, given methane’s global warming potential of 34x, 86x, and over 150x with timescales of 100 years, 20 years, and a few years, respectively.
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Is Greta Thunberg the Catalyst that Tips Humanity to Understand Huge Climate Risks and Finally Act? // Sep 27, 2019

As I marched in today’s Climate Strike for in Ottawa along with thousands of people I had time to reflect on what is really going on. Many years ago I figured out that inevitably humanity would reach a tipping point in its understanding of the huge risks that all life on Earth faces from accelerating climate system destabilization. I also said we would likely only recognize reaching a tipping point in the rear view mirror, after it occurred. Is it possible that Greta Thunberg is the catalyst for thrusting us beyond this tipping point of understanding? It certainly feels like it.
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Greta: Catalyst Tipping Humanity to Finally Act, Tipping Humans to Understand Huge Risks?

Greta Thunberg the Catalyst that Tips Humanity to Understand Huge Climate Risks and Finally Act? // Sep 27, 2019

As I marched in today’s Climate Strike for in Ottawa along with thousands of people I had time to reflect on what is really going on. Many years ago I figured out that inevitably humanity would reach a tipping point in its understanding of the huge risks that all life on Earth faces from accelerating climate system destabilization.

500,000 in Montreal
today, where Greta was…

I also said we would likely only recognize reaching a tipping point in the rear view mirror, after it occurred. Is it possible that Greta Thunberg is the catalyst for thrusting us beyond this tipping point of understanding? It certainly feels like it.

 

Ref intra to Paul’s site, here: Emissions, Carbon Dioxide Removal,  Solar Radiation Management, Three Legged Stool.

Ref2:  ‘Why is Greta Thunberg so triggering for certain men?‘   Irish Times, Sat 07-Sept-2019, by Jennifer O’Connell.  How can a 16-year-old girl in plaits, dedicated to trying to save the planet, inspire such incandescent rage?
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The Return of Blob 2.0? Marine Heat Wave

Return of the BLOB; aka Marine Heat Wave // Sep 25, 2019

In 2014 a phenomena appeared on which there is no history. The ocean temperature off the west coast of North America rose and destroyed marine diversity and wreaked havoc on weather patterns around the globe. Known as the “BLOB”, this voracious spot raised water temperatures in the North Pacific between 4 and 5 degrees Celsius (7-8 F), killing off humpback whales, Pacific cod, and huge numbers of birds, among other creatures.

Is the BLOB, otherwise known as a Marine Heat Wave (MHW) back to torture us? Water temperature is thus far up 2.8 degrees C.
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Marine Heat Waves Resulting in Severe Consequences: BLOB 2.0 // Sep 26, 2019

I continue chatting on the new “BLOB”, this voracious spot of very high water temperatures in the North Pacific Ocean, otherwise known as a Marine Heat Wave (MHW). As abrupt climate change accelerates, the heating is highly non uniform across the planet. Most people know that Arctic Warming is 3x to 5x faster than the global average, but not that:

  • land is warming 2x faster than oceans
  • mountain regions 2x to 3x faster
  • western ocean boundary currents 2x to 3x faster than the overall ocean.

Ref:  ‘THE BLOB EXPLAINED – WHAT IS THE BLOB?
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Greta Thunberg’s full speech to world leaders at UN Climate Action Summit

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Paul just asked that this be published, to this site, dk:

Greta Thunberg’s full speech to world leaders at UN Climate Action Summit //  Sep 23, 2019

‘Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. “You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words,” Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. “You’re failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you,” she added.

Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN’s meeting of political and business leaders.’

Ref:  ‘Greta Thunberg stares down Trump as two cross paths at UN‘.

Ref2:  ‘Climate activist Greta Thunberg, 16, addressed the U.N.’s Climate Action Summit in New York City on Monday. Here’s the full transcript of Thunberg’s speech, beginning with her response to a question about the message she has for world leaders.

My message is that we’ll be watching you.

“This is all wrong. I shouldn’t be up here. I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you!

“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!

“For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal clear. How dare you continue to look away and come here saying that you’re doing enough, when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight.

“You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that. Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil. And that I refuse to believe.

“The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], and the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control.

“Fifty percent may be acceptable to you. But those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution or the aspects of equity and climate justice. They also rely on my generation sucking hundreds of billions of tons of your CO2 out of the air with technologies that barely exist.

“So a 50% risk is simply not acceptable to us — we who have to live with the consequences.

“To have a 67% chance of staying below a 1.5 degrees global temperature rise – the best odds given by the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] – the world had 420 gigatons of CO2 left to emit back on Jan. 1st, 2018. Today that figure is already down to less than 350 gigatons.

“How dare you pretend that this can be solved with just ‘business as usual’ and some technical solutions? With today’s emissions levels, that remaining CO2 budget will be entirely gone within less than 8 1/2 years.

“There will not be any solutions or plans presented in line with these figures here today, because these numbers are too uncomfortable. And you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is.

“You are failing us. But the young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say: We will never forgive you.

“We will not let you get away with this. Right here, right now is where we draw the line. The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.

“Thank you.”

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Record Setting Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Over Antarctica: Causes and Consequences

Here is the first of three new videos dealing with much more southern weather and oceanography, posted today and yesterday.  Paul also added one more video dealing with the North Pole and Greenland from our recent post, here.  This is from three days ago.

Record Setting Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Over Antarctica: Causes and Consequences //

I shift gears from the Arctic to chat about the Southern Hemisphere and Antarctica. Since the last week of August, the stratospheric polar vortex first became elongated and then completely destabilized, with some regions warming up abruptly from about -70C to an incredible +13C, causing the high altitude vortex to morph into two and then even three vortices.

My understanding is that rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice in some regions and gain in others caused an asymmetry of sea ice around the continent, thus causing asymmetry and breakdown of the vortex.
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What’s Up Or Down: Extent, Thickness, Volume, Thermodynamics of Arctic Sea-Ice

What’s up (down) with Arctic Sea-Ice: Extent, Thickness, Volume Dynamics and Thermodynamics // Sep 12, 2019

In September, 2012 Arctic sea ice extent (regions with at least 15% sea ice concentration) set a record low extent, far below any previous year and subsequent year, until now.

This year, up until about mid-August, sea ice extent closely tracked 2012, in fact was even lower than 2012 for long periods of time. Then, quite unexpectedly, 2019 melt significantly flattened out, stalling to be far behind 2012.

In this first of a series of videos, I discuss possible reasons for this stalling, in light of the fact that sea-ice volume continued to track closely to that in 2012, with no sign of stalling.
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New Ice Behavior Regime for Arctic Sea Ice Melt // Sep 132, 2019

I continue discussing details of Arctic sea ice melt, including the puzzling stalling of the extent drop in mid-August; yet continuation of volume loss to match 2012 (year that set records for both lowest volume and lowest extent).

Physical properties of the sea ice remaining are different since most of the stronger, purer (less salt content), thicker, older multi-year ice has melted out, or been exported and melted, leaving behind only weaker, saltier, thinner, younger first year and second year ice. We are in a new ice behavior regime, with different melt and freeze dynamics.
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Is Climate System Internal Variability Significantly Messing with Arctic Sea Ice Demise Predictions? // Sep 13, 2019

Continuing my Arctic sea ice loss videos, I discuss a paper on sea ice thickness variability arguing that internal variability of the climate system is very large, and thinner ice is even more sensitive to internal variability.

It suggests that we cannot predict complete loss of Arctic sea ice within a time window of less than 20 years; and that the difference in emissions pathways between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 adds 5 more years to uncertainty. I am extremely skeptical of this result. To me, large variability means when a large negative swing occurs the sea ice will unexpectedly and rapidly vanish.

    

Ref:  ‘How predictable is the first ice-free Arctic summer?’ 25 August 2016 17:44, Guest post by Dr. Alexandria Jahn.
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Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness in Six Different Arctic Basins // Sep 14, 2019

Continuing my Arctic sea ice loss videos, I examine a paper on sea ice thickness variability that uses the PIOMAS model and a Community Earth System Model. Dividing the Arctic Ocean up into 6 different basins:

  • Barents-Kara Seas,
  • Laptev Sea,
  • East Siberian Sea,
  • Beaufort-Chukchi Seas,
  • Greenland Sea, and the
  • Central Arctic Basin (CAB).

It examines each basins sea ice thickness history and projections, and timing as to when basin thickness average falls below 0.5 meters. Greenland Sea lasts longest (cushioned by cold glacier meltwater); the CAB lasts next longest.
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Bahama Death Toll of 40,000 from Hurricane Dorian: My Estimate

Bahama Death Toll of 40,000 from Hurricane Dorian: My Estimate // Sep 9, 2019

Just after Category 5 Hurricane Dorian stalled over the Grand Bahamas and Abaco Islands for 1.5 days, with

  • 185 mph sustained winds (225 mph gusts) and a
  • storm surge covering 2/3 of the islands,
  • with up to 25 foot deep seawater,
  • the world media reported an absurd death toll of exactly 5 people.

Over the next 10 days their insane number climbed to 7, 10, 20, …, 45. What really happened?

I estimate a death toll of up to 40,000 people; over 10% of the countries population. Most of these people were likely washed out to sea by the massive storm surge, never to be seen again.
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How Bahamas (and ALL Caribbean) can Increase Resiliency to Face Onslaught of MASSIVE Hurricanes // Sep 9, 2019

Clearly, the northernmost Bahama islands have been essentially destroyed with tremendous loss of life; last video I estimated 40,000 dead; most people washed out to sea to never be seen again. The world faces many extremely difficult decisions on what to do moving forward, including should we even rebuild, to be destroyed again?

Given that we do rebuild, I chat about how it should be done in the most resilient way possible, and suggest that the Caribbean Island’s own their own cruise ships to greatly increase resiliency in the face of massive hot-water charged superstorms.
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A BIG thread….

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Climate Charged Hurricane Dorian Tragically Destroys Grand Bahamas

Art at Royal Botanical Gardens in Burlington, Ontario (L)
Google Google Earth and explore Grand Bahama Island (R)

Abrupt Climate Change Realities: Hurricanes Stronger, Intensify Faster, Move Slower, Dump More Rain // Sep 3, 2019

I continue to delve deeply into recent, cutting edge science on how climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous.

  • Warming oceans have more evaporation;
  • warmer air holds more water vapour,
  • so storms are stronger and intensify more rapidly and
  • cause much greater rainfall.
  • Also, the forward speed of tropical storms has reduced globally by 10% since 1949;
  • slowing over land is even greater (by 21% in western North Pacific, and 16% in North Atlantic).

Hurricane Dorian was essentially STATIONARY for 1.5 days; Hurricane Harvey in 2017 meandered at 1-2 mph over Texas in 2017 dropping 5 feet of rain.

Ref:  Intense Hurricanes like Dorian Produce 1,000 Times More Damage & They’re Becoming More Common, By Jeff Berardelli.
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Hurricane Danger Increasing from Climate Change: chat on the SCIENCE // Sep 3, 2019

I delve deeply into recent, cutting edge science on how climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) above 26.5 C fuel cyclones, making them more intense.

  • Global satellite coverage available since 1985 shows a consistent average of 80 tropical cyclones per year,
  • varying from 65 to 90, with no discernible trend.
  • However, since 1975 there has been a substantial increase in the proportion of Cat. 4 -5 hurricanes of 25-30% per degree C of global warming (and a similar decrease in Cat. 1 -2 hurricanes.
  • Rapid intensification of hurricanes has increased 4.4 mph per decade.

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Unprecedented Behaviour: Category 5 Dorian Gets Stuck on Grand Bahama Island // Sep 3, 2019

What causes a Category 5 Hurricane (Cat. 6 if it existed) to park itself over Grand Bahama Island, and stay stationary over 1.5 days while churning away, grinding the island to a pulp, and submerging lots of the island under 24 feet of seawater?

I show you on Earth NullSchool how Dorian behaved, and then I delve into the science on how climate change is making hurricanes much more dangerous. Imagine what would happen if Dorian had parked itself off Miami instead; the damage to Florida’s east coast could have run into trillions of dollars. We must think about the unthinkable, with abrupt climate change.
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Hurricane Dorian Essentially Wipes Grand Bahama Island from the Map // Sep 3, 2019

It is heart-wrenching witnessing utter devastation that Hurricane Dorian unleashed on the Bahamas. This powerful Category 5

  • (sustained winds over 180 mph (300 km/hr),
  • peak winds 225 mph (360 km/hr),
  • storm surge 24 feet)
  • razed and submerged lots of Bahama’s northern islands,
  • unprecedentedly parking over Grand Bahama for 36 hours.

Imagine being hit by winds equal to a tornadoes EF3-EF4 not for a minute or so, but continuously for 1.5 days, while inundated with 24 foot ocean surge, and torrential rainfall. If this had occurred 50 miles to the west, it could have caused trillions of dollars of damage to Florida’s east coast.

Ref:  How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous, Jeff Berardelli.  Monday, July 8, 2019:

Major hurricanes are by far the world’s costliest natural weather disasters, in some cases causing well over $100 billion in damage. There’s now evidence that the unnatural effects of human-caused global warming are already making hurricanes stronger and more destructive. The latest research shows the trend is likely to continue as long as the climate continues to warm.’
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First person account of Dorian who was
lucky to escape with his life. HurricaneMan:

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Global Warming: Vulnerability, Carbon Sinks, Numbers, Replenishment, & Getting Burned

Amazon Rainforest as a Significant but Highly Vulnerable Global Climate Tipping Element // Aug 27, 2019

The Amazon Rainforest is one of the very significant yet vulnerable tipping elements in the overall climate system. Willful human destruction of the rainforest by slash-and-burn techniques (trees are toppled by chainsaw or tractors with chains, allowed to dry out, and are then torched) is behind 99% of the present fires, according to some accounts. In this first of a series of 5 videos, I wade through the science and attempt to determine the most accurate numbers on the Amazon Rainforest impact as a carbon sink and oxygen producer, in the overall global context.
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Vital Significance of Amazon Rainforest as Carbon Sink // Aug 27, 2019

How significant, on a global scale, is the Amazon Rainforest? Best I can tell, correct annual numbers are: Tropical rainforests account for 34% of land-based global photosynthesis; Amazon Rainforest is almost half that, namely 16%. Total oxygen produced by land-based photosynthesis is 330 Pg, thus Amazon is 54 Pg. Ocean phytoplankton oxygen production is 240 Pg. Total global photosynthesis is 330 + 240 = 570 Pg of oxygen (58% land, 42% ocean). Amazon produces 54/570=9.5% of total global oxygen; with carbon sink being 9.5% of global plant total sink.
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Amazon Rainforest: Crunching the Numbers // Aug 27, 2019

As far as I can tell in my analysis, the most accurate numbers on carbon sink and oxygen production sizes for the Amazon Rainforest in a global photosynthesis context are in a blog by ecologist Yadvinder Malhi, which I discuss in detail within this series of 5 videos (this one is 3/5). If the entire Amazon Rainforest was to collapse (burn) then about 90 Pg of carbon would be released to the atmosphere (adding about 40 ppm, an increase of almost 10% of our present 415 ppm), using up 240 Pg of oxygen (a very small 0.02% of the oxygen level in the atmosphere).
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We Need to Plant Many New Amazon Equivalents, Not Destroy Our Existing One // Aug 27, 2019

If the entire Amazon burned down, a release of 90 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere, equivalent to a 40 ppm rise in atmospheric CO2, was mentioned in the previous video description based on Yadvinder Malhi blog. By the same token, if people on Earth got their act together and planted a new Amazon (about 390 billion trees, estimated from Amazon Wikipedia) this would drawdown about 40 ppm (90 Pg) or 10% of atmospheric concentration. At present, atmospheric CO2 rises 2-3 ppm/year, so 40 ppm is only between13-20 years worth of global emissions.
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Playing with Amazon Fire will get us all Burned // Aug 27, 2019

According to the Wiki on Amazon Rainforest: “In 2018 about 17% of the Amazon Rainforest was already destroyed. Research suggests that upon reaching about 20-25% (hence 3-8% more), the tipping point to flip it into non-forest ecosystems – degraded savannah – (in eastern, southern and central Amazonia) will be reached.” Given 3 recent century scale droughts in the Amazon Rainforest in 2005, 2010, and 2015-2016, and slash-and-burn human practices accelerating again, we are quite literally playing with fire in a game we cannot win.
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Browning Earth Since 1998: Terrestrial Vegetation Decline & Atmospheric Drying

Browning of the Earth: Land Plant Growth Decline Since 1998: Part 1 of 2 // Aug 23, 2019

Earth stopped getting greener 20 years ago. A new research study used satellite images to determine that plant growth on land increased in the 1980s and 1990s, but reached a turning point in 1998, and has since been decreasing.

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The decrease is mostly attributed to decreasing moisture in the air, as measured by a Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) parameter; which is the difference between the actual amount of moisture in the air versus the maximum amount of moisture possible in the air (saturation) at the given temperature.

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Ref 1:  ‘Earth Stopped Getting Greener 20 Years Ago’, Scientific American, By Chelsea Harvey, E&E News on August 15, 2019. Declining plant growth is linked to decreasing air moisture tied to global warming:

The world is gradually becoming less green, scientists have found. Plant growth is declining all over the planet, and new research links the phenomenon to decreasing moisture in the air—a consequence of climate change. * The study published yesterday in Science Advances points to satellite observations that revealed expanding vegetation worldwide during much of the 1980s and 1990s. But then, about 20 years ago, the trend stopped. * 

‘Since then, more than half of the world’s vegetated landscapes have been experiencing a “browning” trend, or decrease in plant growth, according to the authors. * Climate records suggest the declines are associated with a metric known as vapor pressure deficit—that’s the difference between the amount of moisture the air actually holds versus the maximum amount of moisture it could be holding. A high deficit is sometimes referred to as an atmospheric drought‘.

Ref 2:  ‘Climate Change and Land‘, Click here, download IPCC Report;  ‘Summary for Policymakers‘.

Ref 3: ‘Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth‘, Science Advances 14 Aug 2019:

Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit is a critical variable in determining plant photosynthesis. Synthesis of four global climate datasets reveals a sharp increase of VPD after the late 1990s. In response, the vegetation greening trend indicated by a satellite-derived vegetation index, which was evident before the late 1990s, was subsequently stalled or reversed… Six Earth system models have consistently projected continuous increases of VPD throughout the current century‘.
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Atmospheric Drying Reducing Terrestrial Vegetation Growth Since 1998: Part 2 of 2 // Aug 23, 2019

It is well known that global vegetation decline is worsening from:

  • land-use forest clearing,
  • wildfires,
  • desertification,
  • drought,
  • soil degradation

But some regions like the Arctic are greening. We also know that the maximum amount of moisture air can hold at saturation goes up by 7% per degree C temperature rise.

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This temperature rise increases atmospheric water vapour content via ocean, lakes, rivers, and soil water evaporation and evapotranspiration from plants.

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If this increase is under 7%, a Vapour Pressure Deficit occurs, plant stomata shrink, and vegetation growth slows reducing global primary productivity.

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Ref:  ‘Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate‘, Nature-Published: 09 December 2016, ‘Understanding and quantifying observed global water cycle change is key to predicting future climate. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts an increase in the water holding capacity of air (the saturation water vapor pressure) of approximately 7% per degree Celsius rise in temperature2. It has been suggested that this would lead to a strengthening of the global evaporation (E) minus precipitation (P) pattern with global surface warming…
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Posted in Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Accelerating Sea-Level Rise. Vacation From Increased Extreme Weather Frequency, Severity, Duration

Accelerating Sea-Level Rise with Increase in Extreme Weather Frequency, Severity, and Duration // Aug 15, 2019

I continue to expand upon my argument that global sea level will rise 7 meters by 2070, as I originally discussed over 5 years ago–in April 2014: ‘Can global sea-level rise 7 meters by 2070?’

An Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) that is very likely by 2022 will cause very large Arctic warming. With no sea-ice left to melt, we lose our Arctic “refrigerator” and all that previous “latent heat” will now be “sensible heat” jacking up temperatures. This will further expose Greenland to accelerated, catastrophic ice loss with rapid sea-level rise and abrupt increases in frequency, severity, duration of extreme weather events globally.

Ref: ‘Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s‘, Dangendorf, Hay, Calafat, Marcos, Piecuch, Berk & Jensen:

Previous studies reconstructed twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) from sparse tide-gauge records to understand whether the recent high rates obtained from satellite altimetry are part of a longer-term acceleration. However, these analyses used techniques that can only accurately capture either the trend or the variability in GMSL, but not both. Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best.

‘We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely (~76%) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We show that the initiation of the acceleration in the 1960s is tightly linked to an intensification and a basin-scale equatorward shift of Southern Hemispheric westerlies, leading to increased ocean heat uptake, and hence greater rates of GMSL rise, through changes in the circulation of the Southern Ocean.’
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Greenland’s ice wasn’t supposed to melt like last week until 2070‘, by Thomas Mote, Opinion Contributor:

During the past week, temperatures at the highest reaches of the Greenland ice sheet rose above freezing, melting snow at the Summit Station (10,550 feet above sea level) for the first time since July 2012 and perhaps only the third time in the last seven centuries.

Across lower elevations around the margins of the ice sheet, bare glacial ice melted at an unprecedented rate, losing 12.5 billion tons of water on Thursday alone, with daily losses likely exceeding any point in at least the past 70 years.’
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Charleston Bridge Chat on Chinese Hoaxes, Summit of Minds, and Santiago, Chile Climate Conference // Aug 15, 2019

Hello, how are y’all doing? We all need a vacation from climate change from time to time, and this week it has been my turn. I’ve been in Charleston, South Carolina with my family for about a week, visiting the sights and learning the history. People here are extremely nice and friendly, but when asked what I do for a living I replied that people give me money for studying and teaching them all about Chinese Hoaxes. Some folk look surprised, or puzzled, or give me blank stares, while others start to laugh. I immediately know that the latter are the ones who get it and are on my side:)
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Paul’s Vacation Boat Trip 7 Miles Off Charleston, South Carolina: Quirky Video // Aug 15, 2019

Vacation. Glorious Vacation. Pop a Gravol or Ginger Pill and come onboard a boat journey with me on my Charleston road-trip vacation. A quarky video, for sure, I must warn you, with somewhat dubious quality due to wave jumping instability bouncing my iPhone camera. But if you like the ocean, and motion, this is a must see.

  • You see an ongoing dredging operation 7 miles out from Charleston to deepen channels to allow huge new supertankers and cargo ships access to the port,
  • a tugboat heading straight for us to get us to clear off,
  • an enormous container ship passing us generating a bone jarring mini-tsunami wake for us, and much more.

Grab some popcorn and settle in for a whale of a ride:) By the way, when is Tesla going to come out with an electric speedboat??
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Vulnerability and Mayhem: Greenland, Blue Ocean Events, & Accelerating Sea Rise

Greenland Vulnerability to BOE and Accelerating Global Sea-Level Rise // Aug 7, 2019

Five years ago I posted the video: “Can global sea level rise 7 meters by 2070?”; based on the ongoing 7 to 10 year doubling rates of ice melt from Greenland and Antarctica this magnitude of sea level rise is indeed very possible.  Now, 5 years later,

  • Greenland lost a record 12.5 billion tons of ice in one day (last Thursday),
  • and a record 217 billion tons in July alone. With a dreaded Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) likely by 2022 or sooner,
  • there will be complete September sea-ice loss and very large warming spikes,

further exposing Greenland to accelerated, crippling ice loss.

   

Ref:  ‘Global sea level rise began accelerating ‘30 years earlier’ than previously thought‘, 5 August 2019 16:00, Ayesha Tandon:

  
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, introduces a new technique to more accurately determine historical global sea levels by combining two different statistical approaches.  It was found that the southern hemisphere, home to many developing small island nations, experienced the majority of the observed sea level rise, the lead author tells Carbon Brief.  The implication of this work is that ocean heat uptake will “likely increase again in the near future, further increasing the rate of current sea level rise”, another scientist tells Carbon Brief….
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Arctic-Sea Ice Collapse: Greenland Vulnerability; Global Sea-Level Rise; Extreme Weather Mayhem // Aug 10, 2019

In this video I expand upon my argument that global sea level will indeed rise 7 meters by 2070, as I originally discussed over 5 years ago in a video.

  • An Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) is likely by 2022 and will cause very large warming spikes that will further expose Greenland to:
  • accelerated, catastrophic ice loss with an abrupt increase in the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events globally, as well as very rapid sea level rise.

As I said 5 years ago, I expect global sea level to: rise 7 m by around 2070, about 3.5 m by 2063, and about 1.75 m by 2055 or so.
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Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Warnings | Tagged | 1 Comment

Albedo Not Tomato, Potato, Keto, or Waco

All about Albedo & Arctic Darkening: Snow, Ice, Clouds, Open-Ocean, Sun Angle // Aug 3, 2019

I continue chatting about Albedo (reflectance) and how the Arctic is rapidly darkening. By assumption, when people talk about albedo it is for:

  • Diffuse unpolarized light (such as from a light bulb vs a laser),
  • For sunlight wavelengths in the visible spectrum, and
  • Normal incidence (light perpendicular to surface).

Without going too much into the physics, I try to give you a feel for how the snow and ice and open water and low sun angle in the Arctic all affect albedo.

 

I’m going to France in Sept. to attend an important conference called Summit of Minds.  Also, I’m attending COP25 (Santiago Chile, Dec.) to report to you. Please donate at easy to use PayPal feature (does not require account) as I connect-the-dots on our global climate disruption.
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Blue Ocean Event (BOE) Consequences: Key Points to Know // hh

Complete loss of Arctic Sea-Ice has global equivalent heating 0.71 W/m2 relative to 1979:

  • If cloud fraction unchanged (by 2016, we’d already had 0.21 W/m2).
  • If cloud fraction changed to 0% (clear sky) global equivalent heating is 3 times higher;
  • If cloud coverage changed to 100% (complete coverage) global equivalent heating is 2 times lower
  • Since Arctic region is about 1/30 of globe surface area, 0.71 W/m2 globally is actually 21.3 W/m2 of heating concentrated in Arctic.
  • 0.71 W/m2 global heating equivalent would correspond to 1 Trillion tons of CO2 emissions (25 years of present day emissions) or 56.7 ppm

I expect BOE by 2022 or so; risk higher each year.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event (BOE) Key Points to Know (continued) // Aug 3, 2019

Continues from last video.


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Five: Ice-Free Arctic, Wildfires, Albedo, Feedbacks, and Equivalent Emissions.

How Much Heating can we EXPECT from an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean? // Aug 1, 2019

Abrupt Climate System Disruption is clearly accelerating; we are in a global climate EMERGENCY, not yet widely acknowledged by the powers that run our society. This will change very soon, as geopolitics pivots to a fight for our very existence on this planet.

  • The HUGE Achilles Heel of our climate system is the Arctic, and the Blue Ocean Event that is coming at us like a freight train.
  • It will hit us hard, but how hard?

I don’t have anywhere near all the answers but I go through the very latest science and my thoughts on what we can expect in a few short years when Arctic sea-ice vanishes from the top of our planet.

Ref:  ‘Earth-Sun Relationships and Insolation‘:  ‘In the previous topic, we learned that the Earth’s seasons are controlled by changes in the duration and intensity of solar radiation or insolation. Both of these factors are in turn governed by the annual change in the position of the Earth’s axis relative to the Sun‘.
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Arctic Wildfires and Peat Fires Darken Arctic and Emit more Carbon than MANY Countries // Jul 30, 2019

Another HUGE feedback darkening the Arctic and releasing literally tons of Greenhouse Gases are the crazy number of intense, hot, long-burning wildfires in the Arctic that have been decimating boreal forests, and even worse, igniting peat fires.

  • Peat is normally very wet (95% water content), acting as a block to wildfires.

However unprecedented Arctic warming this June/July has desiccated (dried out) many peat regions; the resulting compressed spaghnum high in carbon is igniting from wildfires and lightning strikes. Peat fires are bad news; able to burn deep into the ground, and last for weeks, months, and even years.
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Arctic Albedo Change with ZERO Sea-Ice: Devil is always in the Details; CLOUDS, in this Case // Jul 30, 2019

As I often say in my videos, “the devil is always in the details.” The study that equates a complete loss of Arctic Sea-Ice to 25 years of emissions has the assumption that cloud cover was essentially unchanged, which is not likely a decent assumption but a first step.

The paper than goes on to say that if clouds vanished, the sea-ice loss effect would be even larger by a whopping factor of three, and that if the sky above the newly opened water had 100% cloud coverage the sea-ice loss albedo effect would be reduced by a factor of two!! Which is it?

  • I expect cloud coverage would increase above the open water, and by Google Scholar searching a new paper shows that about 81% of the sky is cloudy over the vanquished sea-ice, so that modifies albedo but by how much??
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Total Loss of Arctic Sea-Ice Will Cause Warming Equal to 25 Years of Present Emissions // Jul 30, 2019

A new peer-reviewed scientific paper just came out arguing that a complete loss of Arctic sea-ice will have an equivalent warming impact to:

  • 25 years of global CO2 emissions (25 years x present emissions of 40 GTco2/year = 1 Trillion Tons of CO2).
  • This 57 ppm increase of CO2 concentration equivalence causes a radiative forcing averaged globally of 0.7 W/m2, except it’s concentrated in the Arctic.

As we have emitted 2.4 Trillion Tons of CO2 since the start of the industrial revolution, 1 Trillion Tons is HUGE, and will propel us like a ballistic missile to a much warmer world, miles above the 2 degree C Paris “safe level”.

Ref:  ‘Research Highlight: Loss of Arctic’s Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years‘, ‘Radiative Heating of an Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean‘, Pistone, Eisenman and Ramanathan, 20 June 2019.

Abstract: During recent decades, there has been dramatic Arctic sea ice retreat. This has reduced the top‐of‐atmosphere albedo, adding more solar energy to the climate system. There is substantial uncertainty regarding how much ice retreat and associated solar heating will occur in the future…
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Rapidly Darkening Arctic is a Powerful Warming Feedback // Jul 30, 2019

As the Arctic continues to rapidly warm, losing sea-ice, land-based snow cover, and be exposed to high latitude wildfires, peat fires, and rain versus snow it literally becomes a darker place.

  • Overall Arctic albedo (reflectivity) in 1979 was 52%, declining to 48% by 2011, measured by CERES instruments on satellites.

I’d love to find data from 2011 to present, which will most certainly show a continued, even accelerated albedo decline. A darker Arctic absorbs much more solar energy causing Arctic temperature amplification. I chat about the vital significance of changing albedo and consequences to our climate system.
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Environmental Coffeehouse Interview, Sea-Ice Death Spiral, Global Aviation

Editor: For the first time in the last four years, we lead off with a video BY others, not Paul’s. Having seen virtually all of Paul’s videos, some of them several times, it is clear that peripatetic, free, and informal as this interview is, that Sandy Schoelles nevertheless manages to really capture a bit of Paul’s soul.

Having had the privilege to know Sandy for several years now and seen her work evolve, she is one of the most honest, kindest, dedicated persons in our climate area you will ever meet. Never heard one bad word said about her by anyone, ever. She has faced pain and discomfort, yet manages to somehow keep going, very often with a smile or kind word and never a bad word about others. We happily showcase her work, dk.

Paul Beckwith: Asteroids to Cloud Seeding & Ice Melt // Jul 25, 2019

Welcome Paul Beckwith tonight! We have a lot to cover… and Paul talked about the asteroid, 2019.  OK that was a near miss with earth that morning….just mere hours after Paul did 3 videos on asteroids! That is a topic we very rarely discuss….we also talk about the latest in Abrupt Climate Change, carbon capture, the moonshots and what is ahead for us and the other inhabitants of our beautiful planet . Join us for some good discussion and bring your questions!
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How Much Longer Will Arctic Sea-Ice Last?? 1 of 2 // Jul 27, 2019

The most important question on the minds of many people paying attention to abrupt climate system change is:  When will we have the first BOE: Blue Ocean Event?? It is just a matter of time before the entire Arctic Ocean becomes devoid of summer sea-ice, but we don’t know exactly when.

In this video and the next I show many plots and maps of

  • Arctic sea ice extentarea,
  • thicknessvolume,
  • regional variations, albedo, etc.

to come up with some picture (or guess) as to what will happen as this destruction of Arctic sea-ice unfolds. Ice loss momentum is enormous.

Ref: Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog, PIOMAS July 2019.
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Arctic Sea-Ice is in a Death Spiral, and on it’s Last Legs: 2 of 2 // Jul 27, 2019

Continues last video, as Part Two, on Arctic Sea ice
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Global Aviation Impact on Climate System Change are HUGE // bbb

On June 29th, 2019 a record 202,157 planes flew; essentially double the quietest day (Christmas Day, 2018) in the past 12 months.

Peak number of simultaneous flights on June 29th was above 19,000.

Each year, there are 4 billion passengers, expected to double over the next two decades.

About 4 to 9% of the climate change impact of human activities is from aviation. Since 1990, carbon dioxide emissions from flying are up 83%; the climate impact is 2-4x that of the carbon dioxide alone. The “cheap fares” are NOT cheap in terms of their huge climate change impacts.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Asteroids: Risk and Impacts, or Air Conditioning Demand?

[
Addenda by dk, 2 am Fri, 25 July: ‘City Killer Sized Asteroid Aptly Named “Asteroid 2019 OK” Barely Missed Earth this Morning‘ // Jul 25, 2019

What a crazy coincidence. Last night I uploaded three videos on asteroid and comet impacts. This morning we had an extremely close call. Asteroid 2019 OK missed Earth by 0.19 LD (72,000 km; about 6 Earth diameters; 19% of Earth-to-Moon distance). Asteroid diameter was between 57 to 130 meters, speed 24.5 km/s. Upper end size would hit with an energy of 260 MT (17,000 Hiroshima size bombs), causing a 2.6 km diameter crater 556 meters deep. The fireball would have been 1.5 km in diameter, and the frequency of occurrence is about once every 12,000 years. An extremely close call; and a total surprise.

Ref 1:  The Watchers:  ‘Asteroid 2019 OK to flyby Earth at 0.19 LD on July 25 – the largest of the year‘.

Ref 2:  ‘Apollo Asteroid
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[
All below, published about 12:00:30 am EST, early Thursday (late Wed PST).
]

Risks and Impacts of Asteroids and Comets on Humanity: 1 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

Risk = Likelihood x Consequence. Abrupt climate change is happening now and consequences are becoming increasingly severe. However, there are other existential risks that humanity faces. In this 1st of 3 videos on asteroid and comet impacts and risks, I hopefully pique your interest by discussing some of the most famous impacts, such as the:

I talk about the sky surveys to find asteroids and comets, and nifty sites to calculate impact effects.
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Asteroid and Comet Impact Effects: Fireball, Earthquake, Ejecta, Air Blasts, Tsunamis: 2 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

Imagine that an asteroid strikes Earth 100 km (62 miles) from your location; it is like the asteroid from 66 million years ago that killed most dinosaurs. You are too close, in fact inside the fireball so everything ignites within seconds. After 20 seconds, a magnitude 10.3 earthquake hits you.

Ejecta arrives 2.4 minutes after impact, your location collapses into the final crater, and eventually covers you with 876 meters of ejecta. An air blast hits 5.05 minutes after impact. A massive tsunami wave is generated. Actually you don’t have to imagine this; you can easily calculate all this on a easy-to-use website, as I demonstrate:)

Ref:  Impact Earth, Purdue University.
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Asteroid Mitigation: Gravity Tractors, Kinetic Impactors, Laser Ablation, Nuclear Detonation: 3 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

I am willing to bet that you are not aware of the “Planetary Defense Coordination Office -PDCO”.  These folks categorize and track “Potentially Hazardous Objects -PHOs; a subset of Near Earth Objects -NEOs whose orbits come close to Earth’s and are if a size large enough (30 to 50 meters; or 100 to 165 feet) to cause significant damage on Earth.

Strategies and technologies to mitigate PHOs, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, laser ablation, and nuclear detonations are studied as possible ways to deflect and/or break up and destroy the asteroid or comet to save Earth. That is a relief:)
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Global Growth in Air Conditioning Demand is Warming the World: 1 of 2 // Jul 21, 2019

Heatwaves around the planet are happening much more often, at much higher temperatures and humidities, with much longer durations, and they are occurring in regions that did not have them before. Thus, demand for air conditioning is skyrocketing.

Globally, the 1.6 billion AC units in 2018 are projected to grow to 5.6 billion units by 2050, and by 2050 they will use as much electricity as China does today for all activities. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation to power these ACs will nearly double, and waste heat from ACs that is vented outside can heat cities by a few degrees.

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All about Air Conditioning: Necessary for Survival: 2 of 2 // Jul 21, 2019

Most homes in hot counties have not yet purchased their first Air Conditioner, for example

  • India has less than 5% penetration.
  • Japan leads the world, with over 91% of households having AC today, followed by
  • the USA with 90%,
  • Korea at 86%,
  • Saudi Arabia at 63%, and
  • China at 60%, with
  • Mexico down to 16%, and other countries well below that.
  • Most Europeans don’t have or have previously needed AC, with France about 5%
  • and Germany about 1%,

but long duration severe heat waves there recently are quickly changing AC from a luxury item to a survival item. I chat about all the details, and about the need to increase efficiencies.

Ref:  The Future of Cooling, IEA–International Energy Agency.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Dynamic Systems, Ocean Acidification, and Tipping Points

Nonlinear Tipping of Oceanic Carbon Cycle Driving Mass Extinctions: 1 of 2 // Jul 19, 2019

A characteristic of the five large mass extinctions in Earth’s geological history is disruption of the ocean carbon cycle, causing large, rapid ocean acidification. Acidification is proceeding extremely fast today, in what is a human-caused sixth mass extinction.

Some of the rapidly rising carbon dioxide in our atmosphere reacts with water forming carbonic acid, dissociating to bicarbonate ions, then carbonate ions, making the oceans much more acidic.  Like a canoe reaching the tipping point, the ocean carbon cycle can cross a threshold and tip as we drive emissions ever higher.

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Nonlinear Tipping of Oceanic Carbon Cycle Driving Mass Extinctions: 2 of 2 // Jul 19, 2019

What do tipping canoes, phase transitions like water freezing to ice, breaking sticks, chopping down dead trees, the carbon cycle in the ocean, and human relationships all have in common?

Answer: they are highly nonlinear, dynamic systems, that exist in stable states until pushed by some factor above so-called critical thresholds. Then abrupt disruption sweeps the systems to abruptly change towards a new, distant, eventually stable state. Rapid increases in ocean acidification from fossil fuel combustion emissions risks crossing the threshold to a mass extinction.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Not in Eighty Years But Now: Global Food, Climate Casinos, New Orleans

How 2030 is the new 2100: Global Food Yields Already Dropping from Abrupt Climate Change // July 12, 2019

2030 is the new 2100. Climate change is ALREADY reducing global food yields TODAY, with an average 1% annual reduction in the worlds top ten global crops, providing 83% of food calories to humanity: top ten food crops:

  • barley, cassava, maize (corn), oil palm,
  • rapeseed (canola),rice, sorghum,
  • soybean, sugarcane, wheat.

Most reduced: oil palm (-13.4%); increased: soybeans (+3.5%).

Negatively affected regions are Europe, South Africa, and Australia; +ve is Latin America; mixed is Asia, North and Central America.

Growing season temperatures over all harvested areas is up 0.5 to 1.2 C since the early 1970s.
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Step Right Up in the Climate Casino: New Orleans Looks to Be Next // July 10, 2019

Once again, New Orleans, LA (NOLA) is threatened with inundation, which could result in yet another water-world type flooding disaster. About a week ago, the European forecast models projected a low pressure region developing and passing southward from land into the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening into a potential hurricane in the exceptionally warm ocean surface waters, and then looping back ashore near NOLA. Unfortunately, this projection is playing out (more notes below)
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Grave Flooding Risks in New Orleans, LA: Yet Again // July 10, 2019

(Continues from above:)  The tropical storm, likely to become Hurricane Barry will dump several feet of water around and inside the city within a few short days. This huge amount of water will add to the already swollen, record duration flooding of the Mississippi River, which is at great risk of overtopping levees, flooding the city yet again..
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Game of Risk: DC Submersion, Guadalajara Hail, Planting Glorious Trees, Antarctic Regimens, Arctic Blues

Tiny Blip in Jet Stream Submerges Large Parts of Washington, DC // July 8, 2019

Only a few days ago, America celebrated its July 4th Independence Day, and the government whipped out tanks for Washington, DC festivities. I hope the military hardware was moved, or it may have been submerged today by raging torrents of water from flash floods due to over a months rainfall dropping in a few hours. Perhaps next party, more appropriate military equipment will be amphibians, or boats; heck, maybe even submarines!!
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Our Climate Casino: The Ultimate Reality Game of RISK // Jul 7, 2019

Going to Hades in a Handbasket?? No wall could stop Mexican Hail, over 3 feet deep clogging streets of Guadalajara. European Heatwave broke; new report details climate change root cause. Massive flooding inundated far northern Irkutsk (remember this “Game of Risk” country!); unprecedented numbers/sizes of wildfires scorched many places within Arctic Circle; Baked Alaska had record heatwave; species at risk are migrating; seaweed blooms 5,000 miles long appeared, running from west Africa all the way to Mexico. Eco-anxiety is a public crisis; nice to have company. Mussels cooked in their shells. Sea ice collapsing.
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Game of RISK in Real Life: Abrupt Climate Casino Disruption // Jul 7, 2019

Continues above Climate Casino video. I am fighting off shingles. Please, no sympathy but donations are gratefully encouraged. Live long and prosper:)!! Easy to use donate feature, here. No PayPal required.
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Regime Change Underway in Antarctica: Isolating Wall Breached // Jul 5, 2019

Since Southern Annular Mode (SAM) wind circulation; also ocean currents circumventing Antarctica appear to have been breached in 2014, there will be profound consequences. Jet streams will further criss-cross the Antarctica Ice Cap, mixing cold dry air with hotter humid air, accelerating sea-ice loss and increasing glacial ice-cap melt and ice sheet calving rates. South Pole warming rates will accelerate to exceed global averages, similar to what has played out and is ongoing in the Arctic. Antarctic Albedo Feedbacks will kick into gear, further disrupting global jet streams.
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Wall Isolating Antarctic Cold, Ice, and Snow Breached in 2014 // Jul 5, 2019

Over the last 40 years, passive microwaves emitted from Earth’s surface were detected both night and day and through clouds (thus in all weather conditions) by satellites sensors, measuring Antarctica Sea Ice extent, concentration, and area cycling up and down throughout yearly seasons, with even greater ranges of variability in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Arctic. Sea ice trended up over the years, reaching a maximum in 2014, but since then has plummeted, likely indicating a tipping point breach of the Southern Annular Mode wall. No, Prez T cannot rebuild it.
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Antarctic Sea Ice Tipping Point Crossed in 2014: Abrupt Climate System Disruption Accelerates // Jul 5, 2019

Up until 2014, strong winds circumventing Antarctica (and resulting powerful circumpolar ocean currents) were a barrier isolating the continent from thermal intrusions. Sea ice pulled away from coastlines more strongly over passing decades by increasing Southern Annular Mode (winds strengths) due to leftward Coriolis deflection. Sea ice extent trended upwards by 1% per decade. Feb 2014 had record high Antarctic sea ice extent. Then the barrier was breached. The average Antarctic sea ice extent plummeted a staggering 2 million square kilometres within 3 years.
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To Arctic Blue Ocean Zero and Beyond. What? When? Where? Why? What then? // Jul 4, 2019

If jet streams become quasi-stationary sometime after Blue Ocean Zero, as I contemplated last video, what happens? Living under a trough will almost be stormy and raining; while living under a ridge you will have long duration heatwaves and drought. Neither situation makes it easy to grow food; how will we feed ourselves? Maybe the best place to live would be right under the Rossby wave, in the transition zone. Not at the wave peak, which has extended right up to the North Pole, or at the trough bottom, which has crossed the equator, but perhaps in regions where the wave moves nearly north-south or south-north?
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Posted in Basic Science, Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Collapse, Global Warming, Major Climate Reports, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Life After Arctic Blue-Ocean-Zero: Abrupt System Disruption

What will life be like after Arctic Blue-Ocean-Zero: Abrupt Climate System Disruption // Jul 4, 2019

Blue Ocean Zero (BO-0; first Sept with essentially zero Arctic sea ice) is ever more likely each year. I chat on when it will occur + dire consequences we can expect. BO+2 years will have 3 months ice-free (Aug-Sept-Oct); BO+6 extends to July and Nov; BO+9 will be ice-free year round.

Greenland, alone and exposed, will shed ice like crazy (greatly increasing sea-level rise); the cold centroid will shift from the North Pole to be over Greenland. Jet streams can become quasi-stationary, only shifting with the seasons. Where will we live to avoid the worst; how will we grow food?

[Supplemental ref:  ‘Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction‘, Axel J. Schweiger.  Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA]
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Canada Day Fireworks over Ottawa River // Jul 3, 2019

In Canuckville, we celebrate Canada Day on July 1st, and Ottawa is the place to be. Downtown streets are closed to vehicles, and thousands of people party on the streets.

This year, for the first time, I was determined to get front row seats for the fireworks, The place to be is on the Quebec side of the recently flooded Ottawa River, right next to the Alexandra Bridge. The best seats in the house, since the fireworks are launched off the bridge, at an estimated 60 degree angle, to the west, and the westerly breeze blows many of the ashes right back onto the bridge!

By way of penance for my great enjoyment of the display, I’ll have to study GHG emissions from producing and firing off these type of displays. At least there were no army tanks in downtown Ottawa.
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Fun Video: Experiencing a Storm on Sand Lake in a Boat // Jul 3, 2019

Often people say that my videos are too serious, and I agree, but it is hard to be too jovial talking about Abrupt Climate System Change. On the Canada Day long weekend I was out on the lake on a boat, and a storm visited me.

I could see on my trusty weather app, called RadarScope (check it out; it’s the best), that the tornado warned storm had no actual tornado, and not too much lightning, so I stuck it out, and didn’t hightail it into port. Of course I had to film a video of the storm, for your viewing pleasure, with no narration. The rain was intense, but it was quite calm since surface winds were minimal. Enjoy:)
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Fun Video of Windy Storm Number Two on Sand Lake // kk

Not every video I post needs to be on Abrupt Climate Change and extreme weather events unravelling our climate and weather systems. Here, I was out relaxing on a boat on Sand Lake, near Elgin Ontario on our Canada Day long weekend, and a tornado warned series of storms came rumbling through. This video was shot on the water, my second of two, and since my trusty weather radar app called RadarScope indicated no tornado and minimal lightning, I thought that a nice video on this storm was in order; the second storm of five! that came through the early evening of Saturday June 29th. Winds at the surface were strong in this storm, in contrast to my last video where winds very minimal, this storm whipped up a nice surf. Storms, like people, are all different!! Enjoy!
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Sea Ice Nitty-Gritty, Profoundly Disturbing European Heatwaves

Sad Slushy Sloppy Spiraling South Status of Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 28, 2019

I chat about the sorry slushy spiraling downward sloppy state of what is otherwise known as Arctic Sea-Ice, and the profound consequences to weather and climate that result from feedback’s causing Arctic temperature amplification to slowing wavier jet streams. I go into the nitty-gritty details of plots and maps that can easily be found by Googling “Arctic Sea Ice Graphs” and having fun by clicking things.
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Arctic Sea-Ice Slippery Slope Spiralling Southward Shrinkage to Blue Ocean Event: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 28, 2019

Second video, continues where first video left off.
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Abrupt Climate Change Mechanisms Causing Profoundly Disturbing European Heatwave: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 28, 2019

Feline “Shackleton the Explorer” puts on a brave faced cameo appearance as a prelude to my exceedingly profoundly disturbing chat on the ongoing European Heatwave.

  • Almost 500 million people in Europe are being subject to exceedingly high heatwave temperatures in June that exceed those dangerous conditions in the 2003 July/August heatwave that killed 70,000 Europeans (50,000 in France alone).
  • A very slow, very wavy, persistently stuck Jet Stream ridge lies over Europe; carrying exceedingly hot dry air from the Sahara Desert northward, humidifying it over the rapidly warming Mediterranean Sea, and
  • transporting this very hot humid air over vast regions of densely populated Europe, with its lack of air conditioning (2% in Germany; 5% in France).
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Abrupt Climate Change Mechanisms Causing Profoundly Disturbing European Heatwave: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 28, 2019

A packet of air sitting over the Sahara Desert

  • gets rapidly warmed up by the relentless heat of the Sun in a cloudless sky, with single digit relative humidity (dry) conditions, and 50+ C temperatures.
  • Transported northward by the stuck jet stream ridge, it crosses the rapidly warming water surface of the Mediterranean Sea where it reaches relative humidities of 70 to 8