English Translation of CMIP6: Drought Three Ways

Posted on May 30, 2020 by

Abrupt Climate Change: Drought Projections in the Latest State-of-the-Art Climate Models (CMIP6) // May 28, 2020

I talk Drought. A new science paper uses the latest state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to determine which parts of our planet will experience the worst droughts as climate change rapidly accelerates.

Most people know of the greatly reduced precipitation drought (meteorological drought); but there are two other types.

  • Agricultural drought is from greatly reduced soil moisture, and
  • hydrological drought is from much greater runoff occurring.

Usually all three factors contribute in varying degrees, and drought severity has very strong regional and seasonal dependencies.

Ref: Overview CMIP6 Experimental Design and Organization. Download PDF of Summary, here.  Clip:  ‘Over the last decades significant progress has been made in model evaluation. The CMIP community has now reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently to enable a systematic and rapid performance assessment of the large number of models participating in CMIP.

‘Such an evaluation system will be implemented for CMIP6. Our initial goal is that two capabilities will be used to produce a broad characterization of CMIP DECK and historical simulations as soon as new CMIP6 model experiments are published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): 

At the WGCM meeting, it was decided that the results of these tools can be displayed on a public (rather than a password restricted) website‘.


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I Chat on Global Drought Maps: Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Runoff Changes Around the Planet // May 28, 2020

Second video: I talk Drought again. Watch above previous video first, where I give the background. Here I do a data delve (as opposed to a mind meld) on the drought maps. I cover

  • Surface Air Temperature, and
  • numerous world maps on Precipitation Changes, Soil Moisture Drying (at surface plus down into the soil), and
  • Runoff Increase expected around the planet in different regions, seasonally: Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb = DJF), Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA), and Fall (SON) and also annually.

Find your own region on the world maps (Zoom in on your computer) and see if you are in a water challenged hotspot; now or expected soon’.


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Ranting in the Rain on Climate, Coronavirus, Trump, Murders by Police, and Other Worsening Mayhem // May 29, 2020

I needed to rant tonight while walking through a torrential downpour in Ottawa tonight. Lots of utter crap and craziness is occurring around this week. The Coronavirus has not gone away despite actions of many, and we can expect many more severe waves.

  • Far northern Arctic heatwaves are unbelievable;
  • major Siberian cities slashed a previous record high of 12C (53.6F) reaching 25.4C (77.7F).
  • Zombie fires that smoldered under snow all winter reignited.
  • Parts of the US experienced incredible deluges knocking out dams, draining lakes inundating towns.
  • Trump is totally bonkers, and
  • cops (in the oft chance, English is your second language.  dk:  police) in the United States are murdering black folk.

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Posted in Analysis, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rant, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged | Leave a comment

World Meteorological Organization Report: Global Climate in 2015 -19

Posted on May 26, 2020 by

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Report: The Global Climate in 015 – 2019 // May 25, 2020

Recently the World Meteorological Organization published their 5 year update: “The Global Climate in 2015 – 2019”, comparing this period with the previous 5 year period and historical records.

Clearly, key climate change elements including

  • greenhouse gas levels,
  • atmospheric and ocean temperatures,
  • Greenland, Antarctica, and
  • alpine glacier ice mass loss,
  • heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and
  • extreme events including tropical cyclones, floods, tornadoes, etc are rapidly worsening.

I chat on the main findings of this report by focusing on the figures, both in this video and the next. Stay safe in our virus pandemic.

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World Meteorological Organization Report: The Global Climate in 2015 – 2019: Part 2 of 2 // May 25, 2020

Part two of two:  continues where first video, left off.


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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You Are Here: Tipping Elements in Climate Systems, Canadian Geese

Posted on May 12, 2020 by

Stratocumulus Cloud Deck Collapse and other Tipping Elements in the Climate System that Can Smush Us // May 12, 2020

Stratocumulous cloud decks cover lots of ocean and block sunlight providing some cooling offset to GHG warming. Typically these clouds are 1 km above ocean surfaces and are about 370 meters thick, and are sustained by long wave radiation cooling at their tops.

As CO2 concentration increases, convective circulation resupplying moisture to the clouds from ocean evaporation can be disrupted, leading to less long wave cooling cutting off the source of surface moisture, leading to disintegration of the clouds and abrupt, acute surface warming of up to 8 C.
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Mechanisms, Evidence, and Impacts of Climate Tipping Elements: Earth System Dynamics // May 12, 2020

A new review paper called “ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements” was published online a few weeks ago and assessed the latest science on risks and impacts of various tipping elements. In the last video, here, and in the next video I chat about the risks of these tipping elements. The discussion includes the usual suspects:

  • Ice melt,
  • AMOC shutdown (other posts, on AMOC, here)
  • Methane release from hydrated and permafrost,
  • Amazon forest collapse, etc., but significantly included a new one called
  • Stratospheric cloud deck evaporation.

Ref: ‘ESD Reviews: Mechanisms, Evidence, and Impacts of Climate Tipping Elements‘, Seaver Wang and Zeke Hausfather.  The Breakthrough Institute, Oakland, USA, Received: 26 Mar, Accepted for review: 20 Apr, Discussion started: 21 Apr 2020.

Abstract:  ‘Increasing attention is focusing upon climate tipping elements – large-scale earth systems anticipated to respond through positive feedbacks to anthropogenic climate change by shifting towards new long-term states. In some but not all cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Developing greater understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with ten notable climate tipping elements.‘
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Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System // May 11, 2020

In 2007 Lenton et. al drew on results from experts at an international conference to identify “Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system”. They assessed the likelihood of thresholds being reached to trigger tipping, timescales of tipping and transition times, and consequences to the climate system and humanity.

Canada Geese and their chicks have hijacked my bike…
And, of course, the famed Shackleton

A new review paper published in the journal Earth System Dynamics assessed the latest scientific analysis on risks and impacts of the various tipping elements. Here, and in the next few videos I chat about the risks of these tipping elements.

Ref: ‘Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system.
Lenton Kriegler Hall Lucht, Rahmstorf, Schellnhuber, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Feb 12;105(6):1786-93.

Abstract:  ‘The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point.

‘We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points‘.
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How Aerosol Driven Water Droplet Concentrations Control Low Level Cloud Coverage Affecting Climate // May 8, 2020

In a nutshell, with more aerosols (particles and non-water liquids) in the atmosphere, there are more cloud condensation nuclei so many more and smaller water droplets in clouds. Thus clouds are much more reflective of incoming sunlight, causing some cooling to partially offset GHG warming.

Smaller water droplets in clouds means that they rain less, become thicker, hold more water, cover a larger fraction of the sky and persist for a lot longer causing even more cooling offset. With global industrial shutdowns from our coronavirus responses, we have less aerosols in the skies, thus less of this cooling offset occurring.
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Science of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Vital to Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Models and Projections // May 7, 2020

In this video and the next I explain the basic science of

  • Direct aerosol effects (scattering; blocking sunlight) and
  • Indirect effects (smaller cloud droplets increasing reflectivity in the Twomey Effect, suppressing drizzle,
  • Increasing cloud heights and cloud lifetimes in the Albrecht Effect, and Heating Effects dissipating clouds).

Scientists can determine the number of droplets Nd and the vertical updraft velocity (Wb) at the base of Marine Stratospheric Clouds from satellite measurements, allowing determination of the number of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) which is key to understanding aerosol and cloud climate interactions.
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Posted in Climate Change, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

“Climate Niche” Shifting Away From Where Most Live

Posted on May 6, 2020 by

   

Humanities Preferred “Climate Niche” is Shifting Away From Where Most of Us Live Now // May 5, 2020

Why do we live where we do? Many complex social reasons exist, but fundamentally most of us live in a “climate niche” with Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) 11 to 15 C (52 to 59 F), consistent for humanity over the last 6000 years. This will shift significantly over the next 50 years.

  • The mean human will experience a temperature rise of +7.5 C, which is about 2.3 times the mean global temperature rise.
  • Furthermore, without migration 3.5 billion people will be exposed to MAT’s greater than 29 C that cover 19% of global land area;
  • this MAT is presently only found on 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the Sahara Desert.

Ref: Future of the human climate niche.
Xu, Kohler, Lenton, Svenning, and Scheffer. PNAS first published May 4, 2020.

‘We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints.

‘We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.’
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What do you think about the Three UFO Videos Officially Released Recently by the Pentagon? // May 5, 2020

In this age of disruption both from abrupt climate change and exponential COVID-19 pandemic growth, we often need distractions. This is a very interesting and thought provoking diversion.

  • I elucidate my thoughts on three videos officially released by the Pentagon on “Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon” which the rest of us call UFOs.
  • I discuss the naval aviation footage and suggest explanations and chat about how we really need the military to release much more detail in order to reach an assessment.
  • I do think that there is almost certainly life out there in space; however can it contact us: see Drake equation?

Ref: Pentagon declassifies three UFO videos taken by Navy pilots.
TUE, APR 28 20206:32 AM ED, Natasha Turak.  CNBC:

‘The declassification of the videos late Monday was meant to “clear up any misconceptions by the public on whether or not the footage that has been circulating was real,” the Pentagon said in a statement Monday.

The footage, which shows unidentified objects flying at high speeds in the Earth’s atmosphere along with audio of Navy pilots expressing shock and awe, was initially leaked in 2007 and 2017‘.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Everyone OUTSIDE For Weeks, Suppressing Pandemic?

Posted on April 23, 2020 by

Could we all live OUTSIDE for a few weeks to SUPPRESS the Coronavirus Pandemic? // Apr 23, 2020

Last video I discussed extensive detailed results in a scientific study (link immediate below) looking at coronavirus virus transmission in over 7000 cases. There was only ONE case in which a person outdoors transmitted the virus to another person outdoors.

This is quite an amazing result, and needs to be studied carefully in further work. It obviously suggests that we may be safer outside, as long as we maintain social (physical) distancing. Does it mean that if the world moved outside for a few weeks to we could suppress the disease? Or perhaps if every window in every building was opened wide would maybe that be enough?

Ref:  What Makes The Novel Coronavirus So Contagious?  By Ben L. Callif, April 9, 2020.  Eleven minute read at Medium.
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How the CORONAVIRUS is an INDOOR disease // Apr 22, 2020

I chat about recent scientific findings on coronavirus spreading being almost exclusively indoors. In the study, case reports and contact tracing were looked at in 320 municipalities in China, examining all outbreaks involving 3 or more cases; the major characteristics and indoor environmental issues associated with the enclosed spaces were studied.

The venues where the outbreaks occurred were in 6 main categories:

  • homes,
  • transport,
  • food,
  • entertainment,
  • shopping, and lastly
  • miscellaneous.

Only a SINGLE outbreak occurred OUTSIDE, and it involved only two cases!!!
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Why Coronavirus is so Contagious: It is like Wet Noodles that you Throw Against a Wall and Stick // Apr 21, 2020

Third in a new series of 4 videos (now 5) on my latest climate change and coronavirus musings.  Topics:

  • Arctic polar vortex collapse spilling cold dry air south into US Deep South, clashing with warm humid air moving north from crazily warm Gulf of Mexico Sea-Surface Temperature anomaly 2.25 C, creating huge storms with tornado outbreaks, including a huge pair (2 mile wide; 1 mile wide) cutting up to 80 mile devastation swath.
  • 5 C temperature anomaly over huge Eurasian region. Dimming?
  • Why coronavirus spread is huge; prion-like features and “wet-noodle” stickiness.
  • Large China contact tracing study on how spread is indoors, NOT outdoors.

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Not so Greatest but Latest on the Coronavirus and Abrupt Climate Change // Apr 20, 2020

Second in a series. Latest musings on climate and coronavirus.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Logic 101: COVID-19 Spreading Characteristics: What We Know

Posted on April 18, 2020 by

Logic 101: COVID-19 Spreading Characteristics: What We Know // Apr 15, 2020

Logic 101: Coronavirus Spread:

  • 1) The virus can be spread by people who never develop any symptoms.
  • 2) People that get sick may have no symptoms for two weeks.
  • 3) People travel all around the world; can spread virus anywhere within a day or two.
  • 4) Virus has exponential growth with high R0 value.
  • 5) China locked down 50-70 million people starting Jan 23rd.
  • 6) Given 1 to 5, obviously the virus will go global. What more did anyone need to know? Blaming China, WHO, a specific leader etc. now is counterproductive; we need global cooperation and sharing of the science to face our challenges.

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The Latest and Not so Greatest Musings on Abrupt Climate Change and Coronavirus Happenings // Apr 16, 2020

I filmed a new series of 4 videos on my latest climate change and coronavirus musings. Topics:

  • Arctic polar vortex collapse spilling cold dry air south into US Deep South, clashing with warm humid air moving north from crazily warm Gulf of Mexico Sea-Surface Temperature anomaly 2.25 C, creating huge storms with tornado outbreaks, including a huge pair (2 mile wide; 1 mile wide) cutting up to 80 mile devastation swath.
  • Huge 5 C temperature anomaly this year over huge Eurasian region.
  • Dimming? Why coronavirus spread is huge; prion-like features and “wet-noodle” stickiness.

Massive China contact tracing study on how spread is indoors, NOT outdoors. And more…

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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MAGI: Make America Gravely ill Again. Blue Ocean Event, Computer Simulations Say

Posted on April 7, 2020 by

First Arctic Blue Ocean Event: What Computer Simulations and Statistical Trend Analysis Tells Us // Apr 6, 2020

In this video and the next, I continue my examination of Arctic sea ice data which gives us a clear picture of its present state and clearly shows the relentless downward trends in extent, thickness, and volume that allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about when it will vanish in a Blue Ocean Event (BOE). It is just a matter of time before the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking about? I give my own educated opinion (guess), and draw on some recent peer-reviewed scientific papers that attempt to narrow down the timing of the first BOE, from both computer modelling simulations and statistical trend analysis.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event: Timing Gleamed from Statistical Trend Analysis and Computer Simulations // Apr 6, 2020


Second video, continues from above.
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Horrifyingly Simple Math: USA Coronavirus Cases to Soon EXCEED Total of Cases in Rest of the WORLD // Apr 6, 2020

Instead of MAGA (Make America Great Again) the US leadership has MAGI (Make America Gravely ill). Ontario just released its virus mortality expectations of between 3,000 and 15,000 people, down from an expected 100,000 due to measures taken. We can do the opposite calculation with Trump (in a future video), and estimate the number of deaths in the US attributable to his denial, misinformation, and bungling.

But for this video, I compare :

  • a) the ratio of US cases to the rest of the world, and
  • b) the ratio of US cases to the world total.
  • As of April 5th a) was over 35% and b) was almost 26%. If trends continue; there will soon be more cases in the US then in the total rest of the world added up together. Horrifying, and completely avoidable with a competent leader.
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Sounds from a Million Ice Crystals Jiggling in the Waves: Frazil Ice on the Ottawa River in Spring // Apr 6, 2020

I found the Perfect Social (Physical) Distancing Spot on a Breakwater on the Ottawa River today: there isn’t a soul within many hundreds of meters of me; it’s just me and the Sun and the Waves and the River and the Fresh Spring Air. There is no better way to spend some time.

Steady Westerly Breeze generated waves have shredded many of the remaining remnants of river ice into tiny ice crystals (Frazil Ice), which create beautiful, somewhat eerie and haunting sounds as they collide into each other under the mechanical churning of the waves.

I cycled to this spot; only 26 km (16 miles) round trip today, a rest from my Saturday trip of 114.4 km (71.1 miles). Nothing beats great exercise for lifting ones spirits during this time of abrupt climate change and coronavirus pandemic.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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