Faster Than Expected, Earth Spasms: Abrupt Climate Change

iyhrurireuieruiuiu

Faster Than Expected Abrupt Climate Change Wisdom // Mar 12, 2019

Fourth video in prior series, from Tuesday, called ‘Reflections on Abrupt Climate Change‘.
———– ———–

Earth Spasms from Profoundly Abrupt Climate Change  // Mar 12, 2019

Fourth view in this by now, four part series.
———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

———– ———–

———– ———–

Advertisements
Posted in Analysis, Basic Science, Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Collapse, Global Warming, Policy, Readings, Science, Uncategorized, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Reflections on Abrupt Climate Change

Reflections on Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 11, 2019

For many years, myself and colleagues at AMEG (Arctic Methane Emergency Group; founded by John Nissen in the UK) have brainstormed on how risky our rapidly accelerating climate destabilization is to all ecosystems on Earth, including humanities, and what we need to do about it [1].

In this first of a series of videos, I chat on abrupt climate changes in the past, what is happening now, and what we can expect in the near future.
———- ———-

The Latest and Not-So-Greatest on Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 11, 2019

Second of two videos.
———- ———-

———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

———- ———-

[1] While the first link is not current, we share them as they are nevertheless still representative.  The second one is to the Facebook AMEG Page. Paul also writes about AMEG, here:  Arctic Methane Emergency Group: Plea to G20 Leaders, from July 07, 2017.

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Science, Uncategorized, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Rise of the METHANE Over Time and Latitude, Two Videos

wjeujyeryuyj    53165151_297539617604547_2418752781687980032_n jjjj

Rise of The METHANE; Latest Science on Temporal and Spatial Variations: 1 of 2 // Feb 26, 2019

Since 2007 atmospheric methane concentrations have risen strongly; average rate 7 ppb per year. Methane’s Global-Warming Potential multiplies warming vs. CO2 by 34x, 86x, and 150-200x on time scales of 100 years, 20 years, and a few years, respectively.

djhtyhjuhujhuj   wgujeutyuyuyh

Total radiative forcing of methane is rapidly catching that of CO2, making Paris targets nearly impossible to reach without emergency actions.

jdfgsjrjyjh

Here, and next video, I chat on latest methane science; including spatial and temporal variation, isotopic changes, emission locations, etc…
———- ———–

wewujtgeugyeuyhujyh    ;ghl;rtujlyjliklikll

Rise of the METHANE Over Time and Latitude: 2 of 2 // Feb 28, 2019

Second video in same series on rise of Methane.

hdkhkjhk

Ref: Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014‐2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement
Nisbet, Manning, Dlugokencky,Fisher, Lowry:  First published: 05 February 2019:

The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1775 ppb in 2006 to 1850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio  has shifted, in a new trend to more negative values that have been observed worldwide for over a decade.

‘The causes of methane’s recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and sub‐tropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive.

‘The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/yr in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden‘.
———- ———–

skyhrkurkuyhukyh

Ref:  The Evolution of Radiative Forcing Bar-Charts, Filed under: Climate Science Greenhouse gases IPCC — gavin @ 7 October 2013:

As part of the IPCC WG1 SPM (pdf) released last Friday, there was a subtle, but important, change in one of the key figures – the radiative forcing bar-chart (Fig. SPM.4). The concept for this figure has been a mainstay of summaries of climate change science for decades, and the evolution over time is a good example of how thinking and understanding has progressed over the years while the big picture has not shifted much.’
———- ———-

———- ———–

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

Posted in Basic Science, Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Science, Weather | Tagged | 1 Comment

Quadfecta: Bo, Bis, Bit, Bimus: Glacialis Detrimentum

LECTURE ONE: How Abrupt Climate Change is Redrawing the Map // Feb 20, 2019

In my last video I skated on Ottawa’s frozen Rideau Canal and RANTed about abrupt climate change redrawing planetary maps. Now, in the next few video LECTUREs, I show you new peer reviewed scientific papers (free) supporting what I RANTed about.

 

Tropics are growing by 30 miles (0.5 degrees latitude) per decade; Hadley Cell expansion, but a “tropic squeeze” shrinking is occurring in equatorial regions with heavy rains (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ). Since 1920, Sahara Desert has grown by 10%, advancing as much as 500 miles northward.
———- ———-

LECTURE TWO: Abrupt Climate Change Disruption of Your Life // Feb 21, 2019

People used to have to move to experience a new climate. Now, you just have to wait a few years. The North American 100th meridian separating the dry West from the wetter East shifted 140 miles east since 1980.

 

US Tornado Alley has moved 500 miles east in 30 years. Dorothy, it’s no longer in Kansas. Plant Hardiness Zones migrate Northward 13 miles per decade.

Canada’s Permafrost line has moved 80 miles north in 50 years. Wheat Belts are march poleward up to 160 miles per decade; southern Australia’s is pushing into the sea.
———- ———-

LECTURE THREE: Your City’s Climate is Shifting Beneath Your Feet // Feb 22, 2019

Thousands of northern lakes no longer freeze up. Amplified warming at high latitudes changed annual ice cover to intermittent or no ice when mean annual surface air temperature exceeds 8.4 C, subject to other factors (lake depth; size, lake elevation; coastline complexity).

A peer-reviewed science paper on “climate analogues” shows how climate in North American cities is shifting south-south-west by an average of 500 miles within a generation. See how fast and far your own cities climate is going.

Ref: Startling Interactive Map Shows What Climate Change Will Do to Your City by 2080.  Navigable site, interactive map here:  What will climate feel like in 60 years?
———- ———-

LECTURE FOUR: Four-Fifths of Coldest Arctic Air Volume has GONE // Feb 22, 2019

In this video, I mostly talk on how the coldest Arctic air volumes are gone. In fact 80% of the coldest air masses are no longer there. Not just cold air at the surface, but cold air all the way up.

As the entire Arctic continues warming at rapidly accelerating rates it is only a matter of time when sea-ice no longer forms; Greenland melting will cause rapid sea-level rise. Extreme weather severity, duration, and frequency will also skyrocket, and unprecedented weather events like snow in deserts will occur.

Ref:  Indicators and Trends of Polar Cold Airmass: Kanno, Walsh,  Abdillah, Yamaguchi and Iwasaki, Published 11 February 2019.  Abstract:

Trends and variations in the amount of cold air mass in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere are evaluated for the 60 year period, 1959–2018. The two indicators are polar cold air mass (PCAM), which is the amount of air below a potential temperature threshold, and negative heat content (NHC), which includes a weighting by coldness. Because the metrics of coldness are based on multiple layers in the atmosphere, they provide a more comprehensive framework for assessment of warming than is provided by surface air temperatures alone‘.
———- ———-

———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

———- ———-

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Paul’s Brilliant Video (Editor Title)

RANT: How Abrupt Climate Change is Redrawing the Map // Feb 18, 2019

Climate Disruption is Ubiquitous.  Discuss PCAM, or Polar Cold Air Mass:

  • Tropics have expanded by 0.5 degrees in latitude per decade since 1970s:
  • Sahara Desert enlarged 10% since 1910.
  • US 100th Meridian has shifted 140 miles to East since 1980.
  • Tornado Alley moved 500 miles East since 1990.
  • Plant Hardiness Zones in US move North 13 miles per decade.
  • Permafrost Line in Canada moved 80 miles North in last 50 years.
  • Wheat Belt pushed poleward 160 miles per decade, and is rapidly moving out of Australia.
  • Thousands of Northern Hemisphere lakes are losing ice cover.
  • Climate of Cities is shifting up to 500 miles within one generation.
  • Arctic has lost 80% of coldest air in 6 decades.

Uggggggg….. Grrrrrrrr… WTF… What’s Next???

———- ———-

———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

———- ———-

Posted in Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rants, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Impact of Abrupt Sea-Ice Loss on Greenland, Radio EcoShock Interview

51933307_2464326313595925_8263268892818800640_n  52117066_2464326353595921_4340993088961904640_n

Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event Consequences for Greenland: 1 of 2 // Feb 15, 2019

Between 60,000 and 22,000 years ago there were numerous abrupt temperature fluctuations recorded by oxygen and nitrogen isotopes (paleo-thermometer proxies) in Greenland ice cores [1].  Temperatures over parts of Greenland rose by up to 16.5 C within a decade or two, in the largest of these so-called Dansgaard-Oescher (D-O) Oscillations.

I chat on the latest science, about how a lack of Arctic sea-ice was the primary factor. This is crucial info to help us figure out what will happen to Greenland when we have no surrounding sea ice left.

[1] Ref: Arctic sea ice loss in the past linked to abrupt climate events, February 11, 2019, British Antarctic Survey: Lead author, Dr. Louise Sime, a climate scientist at BAS says:

For years scientists have been puzzled about the correlation between Arctic sea ice loss and the extreme climate events found in the ice core record. There were at least four theories being mooted and for two years we’ve been investigating this problem. I’m delighted that we have proven the critical importance of sea ice using our numerical model simulations.

“The summer time sea ice in the Arctic has experienced a 40% decline in the last few decades, but we know that about two thirds of that reduction is caused by human-induced climate change. What we now need to determine is, what can be learnt from these past sea ice losses to enable us to understand what might happen next to our climate3.”
———- ———-

Impact of Abrupt Sea-Ice Loss on Greenland: 2 of 2 // Feb 15, 2019

Second video continues where previous left off.
———- ———-

3jt3tj3t3jyj5yyj5yjyh  alex-smith-photo-by-philip-smeltzer-300x201

Always a favorite, interview posted on February 14, 2019, by Radio Ecoshock, with master interviewer, Alex Smith.  The End of Ice:

Greenland, Antarctica, South America, the Himalayas – it’s all going, the ice is leaving the Earth.

This is a whirl-wind roundup of new science with Ottawa climate expert Paul Beckwith. We talk pollution (is it saving us?), vanishing glaciers, Tasmanian dry lightening fires, James Hansen’s latest, tech to draw down carbon dioxide, and why this scientist made 500 videos to educate and warn the public via YouTube‘.
———- ———-

——— ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

———- ———-

Posted in Analysis, Basic Science, Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Collapse, Geography, Global Warming, Oceanography, Rapid Climate Change, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Alpine Glacier Melt-Out at Third Pole, Amplified Warming at High Elevations, Feedback Mechanisms

Alpine Glacier Melt-Out at the Third Pole // Feb 12, 2019

Since 1970 about 15% of the glacial ice has melted out at the “Third Pole”; the extensive region with high elevations in Asia that encompasses the Himalayan Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau. Warming is being amplified by a little-known feedback called Elevation Dependent Warming (EDW). A conservative estimate is that we will lose one-third, one-half or two-thirds of the ice with average global temperature change of 1.5 C, 2.0 C, and 4.0 C, respectively, threatening the water supply (and food supply) for up to 2 billion people.


———- ———-
Amplification of Warming at High Elevations // Feb 13, 2019

In most (but not all) high-elevation regions, like the Third Pole (Tibetan Plateau; Himalayan Mountains), Antarctica, Greenland, Rockies, Alps, etc. the higher up you go, the greater the rate of warming. This is not commonly known, but the rate of temperature rise is about 2x, 3x or even greater, at higher altitudes than at lower altitudes, in a phenomena called Elevation Dependent Warming (EDW); clearly analogous to greater warming at higher latitudes. This is bad, especially for Greenland, Antarctica, as well as for the 2 billion people using Third Pole runoff.


———- ———-
Feedback Mechanisms Amplifying Warming in Alpine Regions // Feb 13, 2019

In the previous video I described how most alpine regions are warming two to three times faster at high elevations versus low elevations (and global average warming rates). Now I chat about feedbacks and processes that cause this, and how they vary with seasons and different regions. Albedo feedback, similar to that causing polar amplification, is one effect; others include upward creep of snow and tree lines, water vapour increases, cloud changes, aerosol loading changes, and both short-wave and long-wave radiation effects at altitude.
———- ———-

——— ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , | 1 Comment