Browning Earth Since 1998: Terrestrial Vegetation Decline & Atmospheric Drying

Browning of the Earth: Land Plant Growth Decline Since 1998: Part 1 of 2 // Aug 23, 2019

Earth stopped getting greener 20 years ago. A new research study used satellite images to determine that plant growth on land increased in the 1980s and 1990s, but reached a turning point in 1998, and has since been decreasing.

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The decrease is mostly attributed to decreasing moisture in the air, as measured by a Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) parameter; which is the difference between the actual amount of moisture in the air versus the maximum amount of moisture possible in the air (saturation) at the given temperature.

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Ref 1:  ‘Earth Stopped Getting Greener 20 Years Ago’, Scientific American, By Chelsea Harvey, E&E News on August 15, 2019. Declining plant growth is linked to decreasing air moisture tied to global warming:

The world is gradually becoming less green, scientists have found. Plant growth is declining all over the planet, and new research links the phenomenon to decreasing moisture in the air—a consequence of climate change. * The study published yesterday in Science Advances points to satellite observations that revealed expanding vegetation worldwide during much of the 1980s and 1990s. But then, about 20 years ago, the trend stopped. * 

‘Since then, more than half of the world’s vegetated landscapes have been experiencing a “browning” trend, or decrease in plant growth, according to the authors. * Climate records suggest the declines are associated with a metric known as vapor pressure deficit—that’s the difference between the amount of moisture the air actually holds versus the maximum amount of moisture it could be holding. A high deficit is sometimes referred to as an atmospheric drought‘.

Ref 2:  ‘Climate Change and Land‘, Click here, download IPCC Report;  ‘Summary for Policymakers‘.

Ref 3: ‘Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth‘, Science Advances 14 Aug 2019:

Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit is a critical variable in determining plant photosynthesis. Synthesis of four global climate datasets reveals a sharp increase of VPD after the late 1990s. In response, the vegetation greening trend indicated by a satellite-derived vegetation index, which was evident before the late 1990s, was subsequently stalled or reversed… Six Earth system models have consistently projected continuous increases of VPD throughout the current century‘.
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Atmospheric Drying Reducing Terrestrial Vegetation Growth Since 1998: Part 2 of 2 // Aug 23, 2019

It is well known that global vegetation decline is worsening from:

  • land-use forest clearing,
  • wildfires,
  • desertification,
  • drought,
  • soil degradation

But some regions like the Arctic are greening. We also know that the maximum amount of moisture air can hold at saturation goes up by 7% per degree C temperature rise.

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This temperature rise increases atmospheric water vapour content via ocean, lakes, rivers, and soil water evaporation and evapotranspiration from plants.

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If this increase is under 7%, a Vapour Pressure Deficit occurs, plant stomata shrink, and vegetation growth slows reducing global primary productivity.

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Ref:  ‘Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate‘, Nature-Published: 09 December 2016, ‘Understanding and quantifying observed global water cycle change is key to predicting future climate. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts an increase in the water holding capacity of air (the saturation water vapor pressure) of approximately 7% per degree Celsius rise in temperature2. It has been suggested that this would lead to a strengthening of the global evaporation (E) minus precipitation (P) pattern with global surface warming…
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Accelerating Sea-Level Rise. Vacation From Increased Extreme Weather Frequency, Severity, Duration

Accelerating Sea-Level Rise with Increase in Extreme Weather Frequency, Severity, and Duration // Aug 15, 2019

I continue to expand upon my argument that global sea level will rise 7 meters by 2070, as I originally discussed over 5 years ago–in April 2014: ‘Can global sea-level rise 7 meters by 2070?’

An Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) that is very likely by 2022 will cause very large Arctic warming. With no sea-ice left to melt, we lose our Arctic “refrigerator” and all that previous “latent heat” will now be “sensible heat” jacking up temperatures. This will further expose Greenland to accelerated, catastrophic ice loss with rapid sea-level rise and abrupt increases in frequency, severity, duration of extreme weather events globally.

Ref: ‘Persistent acceleration in global sea-level rise since the 1960s‘, Dangendorf, Hay, Calafat, Marcos, Piecuch, Berk & Jensen:

Previous studies reconstructed twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) from sparse tide-gauge records to understand whether the recent high rates obtained from satellite altimetry are part of a longer-term acceleration. However, these analyses used techniques that can only accurately capture either the trend or the variability in GMSL, but not both. Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best.

‘We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely (~76%) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We show that the initiation of the acceleration in the 1960s is tightly linked to an intensification and a basin-scale equatorward shift of Southern Hemispheric westerlies, leading to increased ocean heat uptake, and hence greater rates of GMSL rise, through changes in the circulation of the Southern Ocean.’
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Greenland’s ice wasn’t supposed to melt like last week until 2070‘, by Thomas Mote, Opinion Contributor:

During the past week, temperatures at the highest reaches of the Greenland ice sheet rose above freezing, melting snow at the Summit Station (10,550 feet above sea level) for the first time since July 2012 and perhaps only the third time in the last seven centuries.

Across lower elevations around the margins of the ice sheet, bare glacial ice melted at an unprecedented rate, losing 12.5 billion tons of water on Thursday alone, with daily losses likely exceeding any point in at least the past 70 years.’
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Charleston Bridge Chat on Chinese Hoaxes, Summit of Minds, and Santiago, Chile Climate Conference // Aug 15, 2019

Hello, how are y’all doing? We all need a vacation from climate change from time to time, and this week it has been my turn. I’ve been in Charleston, South Carolina with my family for about a week, visiting the sights and learning the history. People here are extremely nice and friendly, but when asked what I do for a living I replied that people give me money for studying and teaching them all about Chinese Hoaxes. Some folk look surprised, or puzzled, or give me blank stares, while others start to laugh. I immediately know that the latter are the ones who get it and are on my side:)
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Paul’s Vacation Boat Trip 7 Miles Off Charleston, South Carolina: Quirky Video // Aug 15, 2019

Vacation. Glorious Vacation. Pop a Gravol or Ginger Pill and come onboard a boat journey with me on my Charleston road-trip vacation. A quarky video, for sure, I must warn you, with somewhat dubious quality due to wave jumping instability bouncing my iPhone camera. But if you like the ocean, and motion, this is a must see.

  • You see an ongoing dredging operation 7 miles out from Charleston to deepen channels to allow huge new supertankers and cargo ships access to the port,
  • a tugboat heading straight for us to get us to clear off,
  • an enormous container ship passing us generating a bone jarring mini-tsunami wake for us, and much more.

Grab some popcorn and settle in for a whale of a ride:) By the way, when is Tesla going to come out with an electric speedboat??
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Vulnerability and Mayhem: Greenland, Blue Ocean Events, & Accelerating Sea Rise

Greenland Vulnerability to BOE and Accelerating Global Sea-Level Rise // Aug 7, 2019

Five years ago I posted the video: “Can global sea level rise 7 meters by 2070?”; based on the ongoing 7 to 10 year doubling rates of ice melt from Greenland and Antarctica this magnitude of sea level rise is indeed very possible.  Now, 5 years later,

  • Greenland lost a record 12.5 billion tons of ice in one day (last Thursday),
  • and a record 217 billion tons in July alone. With a dreaded Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) likely by 2022 or sooner,
  • there will be complete September sea-ice loss and very large warming spikes,

further exposing Greenland to accelerated, crippling ice loss.

   

Ref:  ‘Global sea level rise began accelerating ‘30 years earlier’ than previously thought‘, 5 August 2019 16:00, Ayesha Tandon:

  
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, introduces a new technique to more accurately determine historical global sea levels by combining two different statistical approaches.  It was found that the southern hemisphere, home to many developing small island nations, experienced the majority of the observed sea level rise, the lead author tells Carbon Brief.  The implication of this work is that ocean heat uptake will “likely increase again in the near future, further increasing the rate of current sea level rise”, another scientist tells Carbon Brief….
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Arctic-Sea Ice Collapse: Greenland Vulnerability; Global Sea-Level Rise; Extreme Weather Mayhem // Aug 10, 2019

In this video I expand upon my argument that global sea level will indeed rise 7 meters by 2070, as I originally discussed over 5 years ago in a video.

  • An Arctic Blue-Ocean Event (BOE) is likely by 2022 and will cause very large warming spikes that will further expose Greenland to:
  • accelerated, catastrophic ice loss with an abrupt increase in the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events globally, as well as very rapid sea level rise.

As I said 5 years ago, I expect global sea level to: rise 7 m by around 2070, about 3.5 m by 2063, and about 1.75 m by 2055 or so.
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Albedo Not Tomato, Potato, Keto, or Waco

All about Albedo & Arctic Darkening: Snow, Ice, Clouds, Open-Ocean, Sun Angle // Aug 3, 2019

I continue chatting about Albedo (reflectance) and how the Arctic is rapidly darkening. By assumption, when people talk about albedo it is for:

  • Diffuse unpolarized light (such as from a light bulb vs a laser),
  • For sunlight wavelengths in the visible spectrum, and
  • Normal incidence (light perpendicular to surface).

Without going too much into the physics, I try to give you a feel for how the snow and ice and open water and low sun angle in the Arctic all affect albedo.

 

I’m going to France in Sept. to attend an important conference called Summit of Minds.  Also, I’m attending COP25 (Santiago Chile, Dec.) to report to you. Please donate at easy to use PayPal feature (does not require account) as I connect-the-dots on our global climate disruption.
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Blue Ocean Event (BOE) Consequences: Key Points to Know // hh

Complete loss of Arctic Sea-Ice has global equivalent heating 0.71 W/m2 relative to 1979:

  • If cloud fraction unchanged (by 2016, we’d already had 0.21 W/m2).
  • If cloud fraction changed to 0% (clear sky) global equivalent heating is 3 times higher;
  • If cloud coverage changed to 100% (complete coverage) global equivalent heating is 2 times lower
  • Since Arctic region is about 1/30 of globe surface area, 0.71 W/m2 globally is actually 21.3 W/m2 of heating concentrated in Arctic.
  • 0.71 W/m2 global heating equivalent would correspond to 1 Trillion tons of CO2 emissions (25 years of present day emissions) or 56.7 ppm

I expect BOE by 2022 or so; risk higher each year.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event (BOE) Key Points to Know (continued) // Aug 3, 2019

Continues from last video.


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Five: Ice-Free Arctic, Wildfires, Albedo, Feedbacks, and Equivalent Emissions.

How Much Heating can we EXPECT from an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean? // Aug 1, 2019

Abrupt Climate System Disruption is clearly accelerating; we are in a global climate EMERGENCY, not yet widely acknowledged by the powers that run our society. This will change very soon, as geopolitics pivots to a fight for our very existence on this planet.

  • The HUGE Achilles Heel of our climate system is the Arctic, and the Blue Ocean Event that is coming at us like a freight train.
  • It will hit us hard, but how hard?

I don’t have anywhere near all the answers but I go through the very latest science and my thoughts on what we can expect in a few short years when Arctic sea-ice vanishes from the top of our planet.

Ref:  ‘Earth-Sun Relationships and Insolation‘:  ‘In the previous topic, we learned that the Earth’s seasons are controlled by changes in the duration and intensity of solar radiation or insolation. Both of these factors are in turn governed by the annual change in the position of the Earth’s axis relative to the Sun‘.
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Arctic Wildfires and Peat Fires Darken Arctic and Emit more Carbon than MANY Countries // Jul 30, 2019

Another HUGE feedback darkening the Arctic and releasing literally tons of Greenhouse Gases are the crazy number of intense, hot, long-burning wildfires in the Arctic that have been decimating boreal forests, and even worse, igniting peat fires.

  • Peat is normally very wet (95% water content), acting as a block to wildfires.

However unprecedented Arctic warming this June/July has desiccated (dried out) many peat regions; the resulting compressed spaghnum high in carbon is igniting from wildfires and lightning strikes. Peat fires are bad news; able to burn deep into the ground, and last for weeks, months, and even years.
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Arctic Albedo Change with ZERO Sea-Ice: Devil is always in the Details; CLOUDS, in this Case // Jul 30, 2019

As I often say in my videos, “the devil is always in the details.” The study that equates a complete loss of Arctic Sea-Ice to 25 years of emissions has the assumption that cloud cover was essentially unchanged, which is not likely a decent assumption but a first step.

The paper than goes on to say that if clouds vanished, the sea-ice loss effect would be even larger by a whopping factor of three, and that if the sky above the newly opened water had 100% cloud coverage the sea-ice loss albedo effect would be reduced by a factor of two!! Which is it?

  • I expect cloud coverage would increase above the open water, and by Google Scholar searching a new paper shows that about 81% of the sky is cloudy over the vanquished sea-ice, so that modifies albedo but by how much??
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Total Loss of Arctic Sea-Ice Will Cause Warming Equal to 25 Years of Present Emissions // Jul 30, 2019

A new peer-reviewed scientific paper just came out arguing that a complete loss of Arctic sea-ice will have an equivalent warming impact to:

  • 25 years of global CO2 emissions (25 years x present emissions of 40 GTco2/year = 1 Trillion Tons of CO2).
  • This 57 ppm increase of CO2 concentration equivalence causes a radiative forcing averaged globally of 0.7 W/m2, except it’s concentrated in the Arctic.

As we have emitted 2.4 Trillion Tons of CO2 since the start of the industrial revolution, 1 Trillion Tons is HUGE, and will propel us like a ballistic missile to a much warmer world, miles above the 2 degree C Paris “safe level”.

Ref:  ‘Research Highlight: Loss of Arctic’s Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years‘, ‘Radiative Heating of an Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean‘, Pistone, Eisenman and Ramanathan, 20 June 2019.

Abstract: During recent decades, there has been dramatic Arctic sea ice retreat. This has reduced the top‐of‐atmosphere albedo, adding more solar energy to the climate system. There is substantial uncertainty regarding how much ice retreat and associated solar heating will occur in the future…
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Rapidly Darkening Arctic is a Powerful Warming Feedback // Jul 30, 2019

As the Arctic continues to rapidly warm, losing sea-ice, land-based snow cover, and be exposed to high latitude wildfires, peat fires, and rain versus snow it literally becomes a darker place.

  • Overall Arctic albedo (reflectivity) in 1979 was 52%, declining to 48% by 2011, measured by CERES instruments on satellites.

I’d love to find data from 2011 to present, which will most certainly show a continued, even accelerated albedo decline. A darker Arctic absorbs much more solar energy causing Arctic temperature amplification. I chat about the vital significance of changing albedo and consequences to our climate system.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Environmental Coffeehouse Interview, Sea-Ice Death Spiral, Global Aviation

Editor: For the first time in the last four years, we lead off with a video BY others, not Paul’s. Having seen virtually all of Paul’s videos, some of them several times, it is clear that peripatetic, free, and informal as this interview is, that Sandy Schoelles nevertheless manages to really capture a bit of Paul’s soul.

Having had the privilege to know Sandy for several years now and seen her work evolve, she is one of the most honest, kindest, dedicated persons in our climate area you will ever meet. Never heard one bad word said about her by anyone, ever. She has faced pain and discomfort, yet manages to somehow keep going, very often with a smile or kind word and never a bad word about others. We happily showcase her work, dk.

Paul Beckwith: Asteroids to Cloud Seeding & Ice Melt // Jul 25, 2019

Welcome Paul Beckwith tonight! We have a lot to cover… and Paul talked about the asteroid, 2019.  OK that was a near miss with earth that morning….just mere hours after Paul did 3 videos on asteroids! That is a topic we very rarely discuss….we also talk about the latest in Abrupt Climate Change, carbon capture, the moonshots and what is ahead for us and the other inhabitants of our beautiful planet . Join us for some good discussion and bring your questions!
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How Much Longer Will Arctic Sea-Ice Last?? 1 of 2 // Jul 27, 2019

The most important question on the minds of many people paying attention to abrupt climate system change is:  When will we have the first BOE: Blue Ocean Event?? It is just a matter of time before the entire Arctic Ocean becomes devoid of summer sea-ice, but we don’t know exactly when.

In this video and the next I show many plots and maps of

  • Arctic sea ice extentarea,
  • thicknessvolume,
  • regional variations, albedo, etc.

to come up with some picture (or guess) as to what will happen as this destruction of Arctic sea-ice unfolds. Ice loss momentum is enormous.

Ref: Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog, PIOMAS July 2019.
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Arctic Sea-Ice is in a Death Spiral, and on it’s Last Legs: 2 of 2 // Jul 27, 2019

Continues last video, as Part Two, on Arctic Sea ice
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Global Aviation Impact on Climate System Change are HUGE // bbb

On June 29th, 2019 a record 202,157 planes flew; essentially double the quietest day (Christmas Day, 2018) in the past 12 months.

Peak number of simultaneous flights on June 29th was above 19,000.

Each year, there are 4 billion passengers, expected to double over the next two decades.

About 4 to 9% of the climate change impact of human activities is from aviation. Since 1990, carbon dioxide emissions from flying are up 83%; the climate impact is 2-4x that of the carbon dioxide alone. The “cheap fares” are NOT cheap in terms of their huge climate change impacts.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Asteroids: Risk and Impacts, or Air Conditioning Demand?

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Addenda by dk, 2 am Fri, 25 July: ‘City Killer Sized Asteroid Aptly Named “Asteroid 2019 OK” Barely Missed Earth this Morning‘ // Jul 25, 2019

What a crazy coincidence. Last night I uploaded three videos on asteroid and comet impacts. This morning we had an extremely close call. Asteroid 2019 OK missed Earth by 0.19 LD (72,000 km; about 6 Earth diameters; 19% of Earth-to-Moon distance). Asteroid diameter was between 57 to 130 meters, speed 24.5 km/s. Upper end size would hit with an energy of 260 MT (17,000 Hiroshima size bombs), causing a 2.6 km diameter crater 556 meters deep. The fireball would have been 1.5 km in diameter, and the frequency of occurrence is about once every 12,000 years. An extremely close call; and a total surprise.

Ref 1:  The Watchers:  ‘Asteroid 2019 OK to flyby Earth at 0.19 LD on July 25 – the largest of the year‘.

Ref 2:  ‘Apollo Asteroid
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All below, published about 12:00:30 am EST, early Thursday (late Wed PST).
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Risks and Impacts of Asteroids and Comets on Humanity: 1 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

Risk = Likelihood x Consequence. Abrupt climate change is happening now and consequences are becoming increasingly severe. However, there are other existential risks that humanity faces. In this 1st of 3 videos on asteroid and comet impacts and risks, I hopefully pique your interest by discussing some of the most famous impacts, such as the:

I talk about the sky surveys to find asteroids and comets, and nifty sites to calculate impact effects.
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Asteroid and Comet Impact Effects: Fireball, Earthquake, Ejecta, Air Blasts, Tsunamis: 2 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

Imagine that an asteroid strikes Earth 100 km (62 miles) from your location; it is like the asteroid from 66 million years ago that killed most dinosaurs. You are too close, in fact inside the fireball so everything ignites within seconds. After 20 seconds, a magnitude 10.3 earthquake hits you.

Ejecta arrives 2.4 minutes after impact, your location collapses into the final crater, and eventually covers you with 876 meters of ejecta. An air blast hits 5.05 minutes after impact. A massive tsunami wave is generated. Actually you don’t have to imagine this; you can easily calculate all this on a easy-to-use website, as I demonstrate:)

Ref:  Impact Earth, Purdue University.
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Asteroid Mitigation: Gravity Tractors, Kinetic Impactors, Laser Ablation, Nuclear Detonation: 3 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

I am willing to bet that you are not aware of the “Planetary Defense Coordination Office -PDCO”.  These folks categorize and track “Potentially Hazardous Objects -PHOs; a subset of Near Earth Objects -NEOs whose orbits come close to Earth’s and are if a size large enough (30 to 50 meters; or 100 to 165 feet) to cause significant damage on Earth.

Strategies and technologies to mitigate PHOs, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, laser ablation, and nuclear detonations are studied as possible ways to deflect and/or break up and destroy the asteroid or comet to save Earth. That is a relief:)
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Global Growth in Air Conditioning Demand is Warming the World: 1 of 2 // Jul 21, 2019

Heatwaves around the planet are happening much more often, at much higher temperatures and humidities, with much longer durations, and they are occurring in regions that did not have them before. Thus, demand for air conditioning is skyrocketing.

Globally, the 1.6 billion AC units in 2018 are projected to grow to 5.6 billion units by 2050, and by 2050 they will use as much electricity as China does today for all activities. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation to power these ACs will nearly double, and waste heat from ACs that is vented outside can heat cities by a few degrees.

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All about Air Conditioning: Necessary for Survival: 2 of 2 // Jul 21, 2019

Most homes in hot counties have not yet purchased their first Air Conditioner, for example

  • India has less than 5% penetration.
  • Japan leads the world, with over 91% of households having AC today, followed by
  • the USA with 90%,
  • Korea at 86%,
  • Saudi Arabia at 63%, and
  • China at 60%, with
  • Mexico down to 16%, and other countries well below that.
  • Most Europeans don’t have or have previously needed AC, with France about 5%
  • and Germany about 1%,

but long duration severe heat waves there recently are quickly changing AC from a luxury item to a survival item. I chat about all the details, and about the need to increase efficiencies.

Ref:  The Future of Cooling, IEA–International Energy Agency.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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