Status Report on our Abruptly Changing Climate: 1 of 2 // Jan 18, 2019
Here is an overdue chat on our abruptly changing climate. After a hiatus for chess study and competition and to recharge my internal batteries, I am refreshed and chomping at the bit, like the proverbial Energizer Bunny:)
I join-the-dots on extreme events like Australia’s heat waves (50 C; 122 F), eastern North America and European deep freezes, torrential rains in Europe and California, accelerating ice melt from Greenland and Antarctica releasing methane, and huge insect kills in near-equator rainforests.
———- ———- Status Report on our Abruptly Changing Climate: 2 of 2 // Jan 18, 2019
Second video, same introductory text.
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Nearly a 200° temperature difference around the world on this Friday. I wouldn't want to be in either location! pic.twitter.com/71CdH95hau
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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The coolest people I know:
1. Do not respond to negativity 2. Do not speak poorly about others 3. Show up on time 4. Give without expectations 5. Pragmatic optimists 6. Do not nitpick, brag 7. Show gratitude 8. Good manners 9. Admit when they're wrong 10. Random acts of kindness
Over the past 10 years, CO2-concentrations in the atmosphere have continued to grow and have reached record heights. In 2019, we urgently need to increase our ambition to reach the goals of the #ParisAgreement and win the race against #ClimateChange. #10YearChallengepic.twitter.com/6W7FvG35a5
Interesting worldwide temperature profile today. Just about all areas are above average except for a huge blue blob across Canada. That blue blob will filter into the United States the next several days. pic.twitter.com/oRIIF4l7X8
My 500th Video & Searchable Index: Joining Dots on Abrupt Climate System Change: Last Chance to Donate in 2018:) // Dec 31, 2018
Recently released by NOAA, the Arctic Report Card 2018 details profound changes underway in the Arctic from rapid temperature increases.
“What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.” Quote: Beckwith, 2009
Abrupt Climate Change; “you ain’t seen nothing yet”. As Arctic sea-ice hurtles to oblivion, Greenland becomes exposed as the last bastion of coldness in the vast Arctic region. Shortly thereafter, around the world, “the coast is toast”, or rather submerged. Jet streams Kaput…
———- ———- Arctic Darkening from Spring Snow Cover Loss Exceeds Sea-Ice Loss Effect: Part 4 // Dec 30, 2018
Many people know that accelerating sea-ice loss (12-13% per decade in September’s) is darkening the region leading to Temperature Amplification. However, darkening from loss of terrestrial snow cover in Spring (23% per decade in June) is an even larger effect, and is rapidly accelerating.
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Over several months, we have been laying the ground work, with a view to not only our ‘500th Jubilee Video‘, but having already begun–draft–the large and arduous effort of redoing our useful and valuable but nevertheless ponderous tags, but have also begun to elaborate a database comprised of all of the videos. This is step one of about twenty.
We have maximally provided links, descriptions, and major categories. This is part of an ongoing evaluation, learning, and exploration process. A careful collaborative decision was made to take some part of the donations and allocate resources to this concentrated work by both Paul and David–time, effort, and expertise by Paul and material work in preparing and supporting the framework by David. Viewable sheet in navigable window, here:
This is a read only version, in Google Sheets, which is nevertheless searchable. Link to actual sheet, Paul 5 dBase Dec, End of 2018 here. Does NOT need a google account to access.
Like in Excel, Word, and Google Sheets, just enter ‘CntL-H‘ to get a query or dialogue box, then simply type a word phrase, to search for information. Of course, hard as we tried to move the ball up near the goal line for the New Year, we are not finished and certainly will be sharing more polished versions. It’s still a good start and fitting after so many video’s, posts here, tweets, and events–dk.
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Arctic Summer Temperatures to Skyrocket like a “Bat out of Hell”: Part 3 // Dec 29, 2018
Recently released by NOAA, the Arctic Report Card 2018 details profound changes underway in the Arctic from rapid temperature increases.
“What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.” Quote: Beckwith, 2009
Incredibly fast Arctic warming dwarfs the global average and is accelerating:
Winter temperature anomalies are highest, followed by Autumn and Spring.
Arctic Sea-Ice melt keeps Summer anomalies low;
When Sea-Ice vanishes Summer warming will skyrocket like a “bat out of hell”.
Your considering to please support–or continuing to support–my videos with a new–or renewed–donation, with a view to a present for my recent Dec 26th Birthday, will be much appreciated.
Soon we will have a navigable video index in Excel/Google Sheets as Paul rapidly approaches his 500th video–ushering the end of a most dramatic 2018, are well underway with a much needed complete rework of categories and tags, and we appreciate all your generous support, comments, donations, and good words.
2,847,540 video views, 14,046 subscribers, and 415,109 site views from 186,576 unique visitors has been a true team effort, with Paul, of course, front and center (dk). Paul busts his hump with unrelenting, single minded passion, so that you, the reader, can more quickly assimilated the flood of news as we reach or exceed unprecedented tipping points.
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Why Santa Must Move to Antarctica: Part 2 /// Dec 27, 2018
Santa must move to Antarctica. The Arctic is too warm, and Rudolph and his pals are going extinct. Penguins can pull the sleigh. They can’t fly, but neither can reindeer, red noses or not. At least penguins are birds with wings. Santa must do this soon, before Arctic sea ice vanishes.
Link to 2018 Report Card is currently not working, due to US Government shutdown. Once it is active, click here.
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Profound Consequences of Arctic Warming: Part 1 /// Dec 27, 2018
The report gets many things right about vitally important changes underway, but is way too conservative in a number of topics, and fails to make predictions/projections about what will happen next, and how soon.
As I chat with you, I endeavour to fill in these gaping oversights.
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If the majority of Canadians think that America has lost its way, then why is @AndrewScheer desperately trying to emulate Trump-style campaigning and policies? Does the majority of his base feel that way? Why is the CPC polling above 30%? These questions need answers. #cdnpolihttps://t.co/bxlo1Tvmsa
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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I am a former president of the American Meteorological Society (@ametsoc) (AMS). The largest weather-climate conference in the U.S is vital for information exchange, new science findings, AMS operations and so forth. We fall further behind…sigh https://t.co/V5xMY5HAD0
Cascading Feedbacks Destabilizing Our Climate System: 2 of 2 // Dec 23, 2018
One global truth: the only constant is change. In the case of the climate system, this change is massive far-reaching abrupt change, highly nonlinear, much faster than expected, highly exponential in many cases, full of unexpected surprises, leaving no part of Earth untouched. In this video (and next) I chat on a new study that makes a stab at:
a) identifying elements in the Earth system that are changing,
b) identifying drivers that cause these changes, and
c) identifying feedbacks and interconnections between changing elements and processes.
‘The potential for regime shifts and critical transitions in ecological and Earth systems, particularly in a changing climate, has received considerable attention. However, the possibility of interactions between such shifts is poorly understood. Rocha et al. used network analysis to explore whether critical transitions in ecosystems can be coupled with each other, even when far apart (see the Perspective by Scheffer and van Nes).
‘They report different types of potential cascading effects, including domino effects and hidden feedbacks, that can be prevalent in different systems. Such cascading effects can couple the dynamics of regime shifts in distant places, which suggests that the interactions between transitions should be borne in mind in future forecasts.
‘Abstract: Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types of cascading effects: Domino effects create one-way dependencies, whereas hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions.
‘We compare them with the control case of driver sharing, which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections‘.
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Climate System Tipping Points from Cascading Feedbacks: 1 of 2 // Dec 21, 2018
One global truth: the only constant is change. Second video, continues from above.
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Canada's Tar Sands: Most destructive industrial project in human history? -Destroyed a NYC-sized chunk of boreal forest -Produced 1 trillion litres of toxic sludge -3,600 tonnes of CO2 emissions/ hectare -Waste freshwater at rate that rivals daily water use of several cities pic.twitter.com/NerZu0UWkO
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Apocalyptic Christmas // Dec 21, 2018
♫It’sbeginning tolookapocalyptic♫
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I do not love you. I hate you, Sarah Sanders. I can't stress this enough. https://t.co/N73aEnanuN
So many tweets going by that I can't remember who said this; but Mnuchin's intervention from the golf course yesterday was like the pilot on a regular flight coming on the PA to say,"I'd like to reassure everyone: we do have enough fuel to land."
Our New Year resolution: get rid of Capitalism, the only system in which a man gets a Nobel Prize for finding ways to make more money out of the deaths of thousands of people and wildlife. Wonderful Xmas gift from Mr Nordhaus. #ExtinctionRebellionhttps://t.co/UULcKavjXM
Why Jet Streams Get Stuck and Weather Goes Nuts: 1 of 2 // Dec 18, 2018
From top-down, big-picture thinking on the climate system, it is clear that when Arctic temperatures increase much faster than lower latitude temperatures, the jet streams must slow down and become wavier; in fact I have discussed this since 2010.
Peer-reviewed science is finally catching up. In this and the next video, I chat on:
And from Michael Mann’s website, Research: ‘Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf … Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification, Science Advances’–link to MannEtAlScienceAdvances18 (3).
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Crappy Weather From Stuck Jet Streams: 2 of 2 // Dec 18, 2018
My job is to join-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change and teach you. Your please considering donating in support of the continuation and furtherance of my work is greatly appreciated.
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Highly cited scholar @noamchomskyT holds what's left of America's conscience, answering select questions before COP24 such as
Noam Chomsky – Political Betrayal, Mobilizing Action
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Some other recent videos from Paul’s vast promethean output:
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Stratospheric polar vortex to SPLIT? Some long-range models say YES. IF this happens, could set up period of severe winter weather (cold/stormy) in Lower 48 in January… exact timing TBD. Here's our writeup on this possibility and the underlying science: https://t.co/sL12KecN4ipic.twitter.com/vj30UQdEwh
Comparing Methane Levels from Copernicus, MetOps, and Ground Data: 1 of 2 // Dec 12, 2018
Methane levels are rapidly increasing globally. Methane release in the Arctic from thawing terrestrial and marine permafrost, and from methane clathrates on shallow continental shelves are a huge and ever increasing risk.
I compare and contrast methane observations from satellites (Copernicus and MetOp1) and from
Ground flask measurements to see what is happening now;
I chat about the colour legend change for the Copernicus data,
which was offset by 100 ppb, and what that means, and why.
Global Methane Rise Literally Off-the-Charts: 2 of 2 // Dec 12, 2018
The unrelenting increase in global levels of atmospheric methane went literally off-the-charts used to display methane for the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). Methane levels were so high that:
They swamped out the colour scheme used in the map legend,
Causing saturation in large red blobs with little detail.
The colour legend was shifted by 100 ppb to more clearly show the detailed structure of where methane was being emitted.
I strive to maintain scientific independence so that I can always present you with the total unvarnished truth about our rapidly changing climate system and the dangers that we face. I rely on your generous donations to do this, so please consider donating for my efforts.
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Beckwith at Paris COP21 in 2015. Wishing now, that he was in Poland this year at COP24
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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A group of more than 400 investors managing $32 trillion in assets warned governments to take more aggressive steps to address climate change or risk a financial crash several times worse than the 2008 global recession. https://t.co/AvDhaaKYJ9#COP24pic.twitter.com/bP3HgafWX6
A Plethora of Dire Climate Reports: 1 of 2 // Nov 30, 2018
For ages, I’ve been screaming from rooftops, clad in sandwich-boards, on the urgency of declaring a global climate emergency. Some city’s and groups are now doing the same.
Governments, scientists, and main-stream media are not there yet (or even close) but judging by the plethora of recent reports and press they are inching forward.
I chat, top-level, to you, on:
IPCC SR1.5,
World Meteorological Organization GHG levels,
UN Emissions Gap,
US Fourth National Climate Assessment,
and Lancet Human Health; all major reports.
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A Plethora of Dire Climate Reports: 2 of 2 // Nov 30, 2018
The Second video.
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Conversation with:
Paul Beckwith on Jet Streams and Ocean Currents // Nov 24, 2018
Stuart Scott of Climate Matters TV and United Planet, Faith Science Initiative–aka UPFSI–just published a video excerpted from his conversation with me from earlier this year. As he says:
‘Paul Beckwith and I had spoke in April this year. He explained how the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles create both the jet streams and ocean currents. People need to understand more what drives both weather (short term variation) and climate (long term variation). Paul is well practiced in explaining the planetary phenomenon that drive both. Live data from’ Earth Null School here.
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Another freshly published video from Climate Matters TV, but also from several months ago. Yet timely:
Another conversation with: Paul Beckwith, Climate Change Emergency // Nov 30, 2018
Recent: In Katowice, Poland before start ofCOP24.
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With 2018 almost in the bag, what are the prospects for global temperatures in 2019? Using the current forecast of El Niño conditions for DJF from @climatesociety I predict… pic.twitter.com/gQiIyAdZvA
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Next year, under our price on pollution, 90% of revenue generated is returned directly to residents of the province. The remaining 10% provides support for the province's schools, hospitals, small businesses, municipalities, non-profit organizations, and Indigenous communities. pic.twitter.com/7pUMpYLJx0
Tomorrow I'm going to sit down with the 3rd graders at a local school to listen & respond about climate change. They will be my youngest audience yet. How does one even do this, truthfully and compassionately? Anyway, here are their rather excellent questions: pic.twitter.com/ISURwKEIFq
Jet Stream Shift 17 degrees Southward to Greenland
Summary
Well known and respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos of sometimes daunting subjects, especially in climate system science, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences at YouTube.
Frequently called upon for commentary by fellow educators, activists, and public. Physicist, Engineer, and part-time professor at the University of Ottawa. His primary interest is joining-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change to determine where we are heading, and how fast, and what it all means for us and our amazing planet.
