Autonomous Spray Ship Deployment to Cool Planet via Marine Cloud Brightening

Autonomous Spray Ship Deployment to Cool Planet via Marine Cloud Brightening: Part 1 of 4 // Jun 19, 2021

I was recently in a great video discussion with Peter Wadhams and Stephen Salter, hosted by Metta Spencer, to hash out the cloud brightening technique as conceptualized by Emeritus Professor Stephen Salter in the Engineering and Design Department at the University of Edinburgh over the last couple of decades.

Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB) has the potential to cool the planet in a highly controllable fashion. Essentially, sea water is pumped to high pressure through nozzles where it generates water jets that then break apart (via Rayleigh instability) to form tiny water droplets. The nozzle size, number of nozzles, water pressure, etc… are engineered to produce water droplets of 800 nm size (0.8 micron) so that when the water evaporates we are left with 200 nm salt crystals. These salt crystals are then transported within the turbulent boundary layer above the surface of the ocean up to heights about 1 km to 1.5 km where they act as cloud condensation nuclei, ensuring that the clouds that do form are of extremely high albedo (reflectivity) and thus can reflect enough incoming sunlight to cool the surface of the Earth.

The spray nozzles are transported around the oceans of the planet by hydrofoil ships powered by the wind using so-called Flettner Rotors. The ships are sailed to specific areas of the ocean at specific times of the year to brighten the clouds in specific regions to get the desired regional cooling, for example to reduce Atlantic Basin hurricane strength, protect coral reefs, cool the Arctic enough to restore Arctic Sea Ice, and!or modify monsoons or redistribute rainfall to reduce droughts or torrential rainfalls.

This technology has enormous potential to cool the planet enough to buy us time to slash fossil fuel emissions and deploy carbon removal technologies.
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On the Enormous Potential of Sea-Water Spraying to Brighten Clouds to Cool the Planet: Part 2 of 4 // Jun 20, 2021

Second video, Part 2 of 4.

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Cascading Climate System Domino Feedback Effects, NOT Good

Cascading Climate System Domino Feedback Effects, NOT Good // Jun 4, 2021

A new peer-reviewed scientific paper published June 3rd discusses the risks of climate domino effects from cascading feedbacks. Essentially, the risk is rapidly increasing to cross critical thresholds for one or more tipping elements in the climate system.

Although there are numerous tipping points in the climate system, this paper used Monte Carlo computer simulations to examine the physical interactions between only 4 tipping elements: namely 1) Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) collapse, 2) West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) collapse, 3) Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) shutdown, and 4) Amazon Rainforest collapse.

This paper is a great start to examining cascading tipping points, but in my opinion it needs to incorporate many other tipping points to be really useful, most notably the paper egregiously ignores Arctic Sea Ice collapse to the dreaded Blue Ocean Event (BOE), and Methane Outbursts from both the Arctic terrestrial permafrost (riskiest being the Siberian Yedoma regions) and the subsea permafrost (riskiest being the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) regions and the methane bound in hydrates (methane clathrates)).

For each of the tipping elements examined, the paper considers the essential factors of critical temperature thresholds, tipping element interaction mechanisms and strengths, and tipping timescales.

The most significant and worrying result of this new paper is the following:

For global warming up to 2.0C above pre-industrial, tipping occurs in 61% of all the simulations. This 61% is further broken down to: one individual element tips in 22% of all of the simulations; cascading effects cause tipping in two elements in 21% of the cases; cascading tips three elements in 15% of the simulations; and all four elements tip via cascading in 3% of all the simulations.

For global warming of 1.0C (already passed) the GIS has already likely tipped.

Meanwhile, for global warming of 3.0C cascades are less frequent since the four elements all tip independently with temperature thresholds already exceeded.

Overall, a fascinating paper, but it is imperative that future work examine the entire gamut of tipping elements, including the four examined thus far.

Ref: Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Wunderling, Donges, Kurths, Winkelmann. Published 03 June, 2021. Link to PDF here.

Abstract. With progressing global warming, there is an increased risk that one or several tipping elements in the climate system might cross a critical threshold, resulting in severe consequences for the global climate, ecosystems and human societies. While the underlying processes are fairly well-understood, it is unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth’s climate system. As of yet, this cannot be fully analyzed with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational constraints as well as some missing and uncertain process representations of certain tipping elements.

Here, we explicitly study the effects of known physical interactions among the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest using a conceptual network approach. We analyze the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments. In these experiments, we propagate the uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds, interaction strengths and interaction structure via large ensembles of simulations in a Monte Carlo approach.

Overall, we find that the interactions tend to destabilize the network of tipping elements. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the four tipping elements within the network, showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator transmitting cascades. This indicates that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 ◦C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole.

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A Smorgasbord of Abrupt Climate System Disruption Science and Dire Consequences to Humanity

My New Bunker

A Smorgasbord of Abrupt Climate System Disruption Science and Dire Consequences to Humanity // May 22, 2021

In this sequence of new videos I chat about what I consider to be the most significant recent peer reviewed scientific studies on abrupt climate system change and the consequences to humanity.

The Arctic Sea Ice exists on borrowed time. As well as being obliterated in summer melt it’s winter formation is being significantly retarded increasingly by ocean heat from both the Atlantic Ocean (coined Atlantification) and from the Pacific Ocean (coined Ocean Heat “Bombs” but I think it should be called Pacification).

Of course, the Arctic permafrost carbon feedback is an enormous tipping point that we risk crossing very soon. As the permafrost on both land and on shallow continental shelves thaws it undergoes microbial decomposition releasing CO2 (aerobically) and/or methane (anaerobically). Years ago, it was estimated that 1,700 Gtons (Pg) of carbon were in the Arctic. The latest science shows that in the 0 to 3 meter deep (10 feet) surface layer of the Arctic and sub-Arctic there is 1,035 Pg; the rest of the Earth has 2,050 Pg in this surface layer. Deeper than 3 m, the Yedoma permafrost holds between 210 and 456 Pg, and non-Yedoma permafrost holds between 350 to 465 Pg. The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf, which is the largest and shallowest continental shelf on Earth holds vast amounts of frozen permafrost in the sediments on the sea floor, being thickest where the water is shallowest, and also containing methane hydrates and deep methane reservoirs.

Recently, it has been shown scientifically that climate change has melted enough ice in polar regions to change the mass distribution on the Earth to cause a measurable shift in the Earth axis of rotation, and rotation rate. Also, climate change has expanded the lower atmosphere (troposphere), pushing up the tropopause (border with stratosphere), and the cooling of the stratosphere has contracted it, so it does not extend up as high.
These are profound large-scale planetary changes to our Earth.

Please watch and share these videos, as I chat about the very latest science of abrupt climate system disruption, and the profound consequences and extreme risks to humanity.
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Abrupt Climate System Disruption MISHMASH on Cutting Edge Science and Consequences to Us // May 22, 2021

Second of two videos.
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It’s the End of the World as we Know It, and I Feel FINE. What’s Next for Abrupt Climate Disruption?

Paul on a Mission or is it Klaus Kinsky in Aguirre, the Wrath of God?

It’s the End of the World as we Know It, and I Feel FINE. What’s Next for Abrupt Climate Disruption? // May 4, 2021

People often ask me for my projections and guesstimates on what happens next with our ongoing abrupt climate system disruption.

For example:

When we we first lost all Arctic Sea Ice?

When will methane burst out from the Arctic?

What will happen to our global food supply? Will we have a global famine?

What is the best way to pull carbon from the atmosphere/ocean system?

Will we deploy solar radiation management technologies? Lime the oceans. Put mirrors everywhere on land, oceans, or in space?

How does one deal with all this bad news?

I chat about some of my thoughts on these complex questions as I sit on a log in a forest in Northern Ontario in front of a gorgeous waterfall.
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The Legacy of Elliot Lake Ontario: From “Uranium Capitol of the World” to Retirement Community // May 7, 2021

As I was driving home to Ottawa across northern Ontario just North of Lake Huron, about half way between Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury, I had to make a mandatory (for me) 40 km jog north to Elliot Lake.

Once known as “The Uranium Capitol of the World”, this small town deep in the northern Canadian Shield forests once produced about 70% of Canadian produced uranium representing about 25% of world output.

In 1953 this region was just rock outcrops, forests, and lakes. Franc Joubin, a Toronto prospector, discovered uranium ore deposits here. At that time, uranium was considered the ore of the future:

“Uranium, it’s like sex!! It’s got glamour.” Even school kids in Ontario knew that uranium was the fuel for atomic energy, and was man’s most modern and widely publicized source of almost unlimited power. The Ontario government was convinced of the long term viability and permanence of mining uranium, and set up a planned community in the forest. The town was founded in 1955, and by 1960 there were huge sprawling split level homes on crescent streets, fluorescent street lights, three story apartment blocks, shopping malls, schools, churches, two movie theatres and a hospital. The boomtown was thriving with 25,000 people, including over 9,000 underground workers (miners) and most of the best paid workers in Canada. There were fixed orders for more than a billion dollars of uranium, for delivery between 1957 and 1962. Pessimistic economists predicted boom times into the 1960s, and the optimistic ones essentially said forever. Not to be.

The problem is that mining uranium ore releases lots of radioactive radon gas, and being a gas, radon goes deep into all the lung tissues and causes lung cancer, and many miners started dying. The radioactive mine tailings rock and dust spreading in the air and water soon spread around the town and many non-miners also got sick and died. The Ontario government refused to acknowledge the problem, so in 1974 over 1000 uranium miners went on strike to raise the issue. Of course mining continued, and by 1984 almost 300 miners had already died of lung cancer. Large quantities of radioactive waste rock from the tailings were used in construction of house foundations, and still contained about 85% of the original radioactivity, carrying nasty elements like Thorium-230 and Radium-226; in fact the disturbed ore gave off 10,000 times more radon gas than the undisturbed ore.

Economic pressures (large uranium finds in Saskatchewan; fewer nuclear power plants being built; Canadian government decision not to sell uranium for weapons programs) led to Ontario. Uranium mines being decommissioned in the early 1990’s.

Elliot Lake is now a retirement community, and is relatively COVID free (I joke that the high radioactivity kills any virus there).

The Ontario north is still a vibrant place for mining and forestry. There was silver mining in Cobalt, ON; iron ore mining in Temagani, nickel mining in Sudbury (my next video); gold mining in Timmins, and of course uranium mining in Elliot Lake.
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My Rant on Abrupt Climate System Change From a ClearCut Boreal Forest Site in Northern Ontario // May 2, 2021

My son and his friend are planting trees in Northern Ontario for a few months, and needed transport to the site near Kenora next to the Manitoba border, so I rented the smallest most fuel efficient car I could find and we crammed in all their stuff and hit the road. I was able to circumvent Ontario’s current stay at home orders since planting trees is considered an essential service job in Ontario, as it should be. On the way, we managed to listen to every interview that Elon Musk has ever done with Joe Rogan, amazingly there are a lot and even one interview that went on for over 3 hours.

On my way back home (very long road trip) I have been relaxing and taking in the amazing scenery in Ontario’s far North, and Ontario is huge. In fact it’s a 22 hour drive each way, and I am filming and posting a series of videos as I meander and explore on my way home.

Here, I investigated a clear cut forest site, to ponder our terrestrial carbon sink which is likely to become a source in a mere two decades with business as usual.
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Universities (Knowledge Factories) have Betrayed Reason and Humanity by Lacking All Wisdom

Universities (Knowledge Factories) have Betrayed Reason and Humanity by Lacking All Wisdom // Apr 28, 2021

I have often wondered how humanity, in our present day and age, can be facing total and utter catastrophe from abrupt climate system change, and still have the vast multitudes of citizens, governments, and nations not even want to recognize the grave dangers that we face.

These are not long term risks, in fact we face the imminent complete loss of Arctic Sea Ice, enormous outbursts of methane gas, mass extinctions of our plants and animals, and global food shortages leading to deadly widespread famine within a decade. How is this possible? How can society be so stupid? Why am I cursed to recognize the imminent and complete collapse of our society?

Having been within the university system and academia for many years, I have been constantly puzzled as to why there is no sense of societal danger and risk of near term collapse. The Ivory Towers of Academia have been completely oblivious to the existential crisis, and has done absolutely nothing to educate the public to these risks.

The university is essentially a knowledge-factory to push forward the boundaries of knowledge in a vast array of independently siloed fields, while it has completely lacked the wisdom to recognize let alone address the real world problems that are right in front of our face. As a result, with zero wisdom from our esteemed institutes of learning, our society is teetering on the brink of complete and utter collapse from abrupt climate system change.

The best paper that I have read on this failure of our university system to address real world and imminent global problems was published two weeks ago and is called “How Universities Have Betrayed Reason and Humanity – And What’s to Be Done About It” by Nicolas Maxwell.
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Video two of two:

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Global Trends 2040: Some of my Thoughts on the U.S. National Intelligence Council Report

Global Trends 2040: Some of my Thoughts on the U.S. National Intelligence Council Report: 1 of 2 // Apr 23, 2021

The Strategic Futures Group within the U.S. National Intelligence Council publicly released a report on “Global Trends 2040”, in an effort to let us (countries, policymakers, individuals) prepare fir an array of possible futures. This report is the seventh edition, coming out every 4 years since 1997, and has the main theme being “A more contested world”.

Structural forces seen to be shaping our future strategic environment include:
1) demographics, human development, and health
2) Environment (primarily rapid climate change)
3) Economics
4) Technology

Key subsections of Emerging Dynamics consist of:
1) Societal (individuals plus society)
2) State (tensions, turbulence, transformed)
3) International (more contested, uncertain, conflicts)

Also, 5 future scenarios for the world in 2040 were concocted. Interestingly, the “Tragedy and Mobilization” scenario 5 essentially sees a global famine occurring in 2030 from simultaneous crop failures due to extreme weather events in major food producing regions combined with devastating global fisheries losses from ocean ecosystem collapse with acidification and warming. The scenario then points out a collaborative necessity between countries to deal with the existential threats of a global food collapse.

Definitely read this publicly available report. In my present two videos on this report I chat about the big picture overview of the report, and the subsection on the Environment, specifically climate change. As the report authors note: “We offer this analysis with humility, knowing that invariably the future will unfold in ways that we have not foreseen”, and I agree with this statement 100%.

Please support my research and videos by donating to my blog as I strive to bring you the latest cutting edge abrupt climate system change science in an easily understood fashion. Perhaps I should do a crowd funded project to present my own report on what I see happening in the next decade or two.

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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.

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Linking Mid-Latitude Extreme Weather Events to Arctic Amplification; Complexities Abound


Apr 16, 2021

One of the obvious consequences of abrupt climate system change is the large increase we have experienced in the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events. In addition, these events are happening in regions where they did not happen before, for example, we have had large, previously unheard of snowfalls in some of the driest deserts in the world.

The top down, elevator pitch that I have used for many years is based on the fundamental physics of why the Jet Stream exists in the first place, which is due to the cold Arctic – warmer lower latitudes temperature difference creating a pressure difference driving the high altitude winds (jet streams) along with the Coriolis force effects deflecting winds to the right in the Northern Hemisphere.

As the Arctic warms at much greater rates than lower latitudes, the lower temperature gradient (thus pressure gradient) means the jet streams must slow, and thus they become much wavier in the North-South direction. Under the ridges of the Jet stream waves (Rossby Waves) there is high pressure and heat that has moved northward, while in the troughs of the waves cold dry air spills southward. If the wave locations are persistent (blocked) we can get long duration anomalously hot conditions under the ridges, and long duration storms, torrential rainfall, and flooding in the troughs.

This explains why the tremendously rapid Arctic warming is leading to increases in the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events, from a top-down viewpoint.

Bottom-up is more difficult, and the devil is always in the details. In the latter section of my Part 1 video, and in all of my Part 2 video, I discuss a new peer reviewed scientific paper called “How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?”.

Since extreme weather events are presently affecting billions of people around the planet, getting at the details is vitally important, in fact it was mentioned that there were 146 recent papers looking into the details of these connections. There is a lot of complexity and confusion, and the connections vary critically depending on the season, for example late fall/early winter the lack of Arctic sea ice in the Barent-Kara Sea, the Chuckhi-Beaufort Sea, and Baffin Bay have been connected to extreme winter cold and snowfall in Eurasia, extreme weather conditions in North America, etc… In late winter, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex often radically undergoes Sudden Stratospheric Warming, leading to large outbreaks of cold Arctic air infiltrating into much lower latitudes in North America and Eurasia.

Clearly, we still have a lot to learn, but it seems impossible to me that rapid Arctic changes can occur without having profound effects on lower latitude weather extremes. I think these connections will become more obvious and resolved as we get closer and closer to complete loss of Arctic sea ice within the next few years.

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Anthropogenic Climate Change has Slowed Global Agricultural Productivity Growth by 21%

I chat about an extremely significant brand spanking new scientific paper that was published in the last few days called “Anthropogenic Climate Change has slowed Agricultural Productivity Growth” in my first Part 1 of 2 videos.

In my second, Part 2 of 2 videos, I show the figures and graphs backing my chat.

A so-called econometric model of weather effects on Global Agricultural TFP (Total Factor Productivity) between 1961 and 2020 shows that global agricultural TFP has been reduced due to Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) by 21% since 1961. In a counterfactual world without ACC, agricultural productivity would have increased from 100 in 1961 to 210 in 2020; in our real world ACC has shaved 2020 down to 190.

Clearly, anthropogenic climate change has already taken a big bite out of our global food supply growth that has occurred since 1961. The growth has occurred because of Agricultural Research and technologies that have increased food productivity, but ACC is significantly cutting into those gains.

Warmer regions of the planet (Africa, Latin America, Caribbean) have suffered a 26-34% reduction.

Global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Although ACC had slowed global agricultural productivity growth between 1961 and 2020 by 21%, the slowing was about 30% in the latter half of the period (1989 to 2015) as compared to about 10% in the earlier half of the period (1961 to 1988).

There are also large regional cross country disparities, notably Africa has had 34% slowing, the Near East and North Africa 30%, and Latin American countries 25.9% slowing. Cooler regions like North America have had less slowing (12.5%) and Europe and Central Asia 7% slowing. This regional variation has greatly exacerbated the inequalities between poor and rich countries; the most affected region is sub-Saharan Africa.

In conclusion, Anthropogenic Climate Change is increasingly slowing global agricultural gains that have occurred due to Agricultural Research. These impacts are detectable and sizeable already; this is not a case of something happening in 10 years or by 2050 or 2100.
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Imminent Global Ocean Tipping Points: Ocean Warming, Acidification, and Deoxygenation // Apr 3, 2021

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Risk of Amazon Rainforest Collapse Takes Lead Amongst Abrupt Climate Change Tipping Points

The Climate System Tipping Points Race: Risk of Amazon Rainforest Collapse Takes the Lead: 1 of 3 // Mar 26, 2021

In my last few videos I chatted about how our terrestrial biosphere sink is failing. Presently, land vegetation absorbs about 30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions, but with BAU (Business-as-Usual) this number is expected to halve by 2040. The terrestrial biosphere will tip over from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will skyrocket as we head there within a mere two decades. The reason is that further warming increases plant respiration while decreasing plant photosynthesis. Sources dominate sinks.

Of course the Amazon Rainforest is the largest swath of tropical rainforest on the planet. This forest drives a partially self-sustaining regional climate and hydrological system, whereby falling rainwater is taken up by rainforest, a lot of the water is put back into the atmosphere by evapotranspiration, and the cycle repeats over and over again. Thus, water is distributed over the entire rainforest, but if the cycle is cut off at the start then the entire rainforest can suffer severe drought. Thus, with slightly more warming from climate system change, we are at great risk of the sudden complete collapse of the entire rainforest.

In this video series (3 parts) I focus on the Amazon Rainforest. I chat about a new scientific review paper called “Carbon and Beyond: The Biogeochemistry of Climate in a Rapidly Changing Amazon”. Most discussions of the Amazon Rainforest focus solely on carbon cycles and storage. This is incomplete; they need to consider the overall Amazon system, and also examine CH4, N2O, black carbon, biogenic volatile organic compounds, aerosols, evapotranspiration, and albedo changes. The dynamic responses of all of the above to localized stresses (fires, land-use changes, extreme weather events) and to global stresses (warming, drying, El Niño Southern Oscillation) must be examined to get a more complete understanding of the Amazon System.

When the overall system is studied, it becomes quite clear that the CH4 and N2O changes are large enough to offset, and even actually exceed the carbon sink of the Amazon Rainforest. This is actually terrible news for the vitality of our planetary ecosystems and human societies.

Second video, of three, here:

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On Thin Ice

On Monday March 22 I hiked along the Ottawa River in Fitzroy Harbour with a friend. We hugged the shoreline where the river was shallow, to stay on the safe side. Feeling down into the cracks, the ice was over a foot thick. A few days later, after 20C temperatures and rain, the ice was all gone. Timing in life is everything:)
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