The Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE). When? Then What?

The Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE). When? Then What? // Sep 20, 2018

We are hurtling towards the Blue Ocean Event (BOE) in the Arctic. Nobody knows for sure when it will happen.

From my analysis, which I discuss in this video, my best guess is that the BOE will happen in 2022. There will be essentially NO sea ice in the Arctic Ocean for a few weeks to a month in September, 2022.

After this BOE happens, then what will follow in subsequent years? I think that by BOE+2 years the Arctic Ocean will be ice free for August, September, and October. By BOE+4 years it will be ice free for 5 months, and by BOE+10 years the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice year round.

   

During this decade of gut-wrenching transition, our climate and weather patterns will be profoundly disrupted, chaotic, and unstable, for example presenting enormous risks to our global food supply.

I am not paid by anybody for my work analyzing and producing these videos. Please consider donating at Please Donate to Paul, to support my efforts at educating the public on the risks that we collectively face.
———- ———-

Jet Stream Center-of-Rotation to Shift 17 degrees Southward from North Pole to Greenland with Arctic // Sep 9, 2018

When all the sea-ice in the Arctic has vanished from melt and transport, what will happen? This so-called Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE) in the Arctic will mean that the last bastion of ice and coldness in the Arctic will be Greenland.

Thus, instead of the Center-of-Coldness or Centroid (I name it ColdTroid) being near the North Pole, as it has been in human history it will be centred over the middle of Greenland, and thus be at about 73 degrees N latitude.

  • Thus, to first-order simplicity, one can expect the jet streams to shift their center of rotation 17 degrees from the North Pole where they are now towards Greenland.
  • This jet stream shift, causing a decoupling from Earth’s axis of rotation, obviously has profound consequences for our global weather patterns and climate system and human civilization, and plants and animals, and, for example our ability to grow food.

But hey; humans will at least be able to drill and mine the Arctic, at least those of us that are left.
———- ———-

 

Stuart Scott, Charles Gregoire,
Heidi Brault, and Paul Beckwith, L to R.

Tonight it was a great delight to attend a FREE Public Policy Meeting at the Sandy Hill Community Center in Ottawa, on:

Climate Change, Collapsing Ecosystems & Unsustainable Global Policies, by friend and acclaimed public speaker Stuart Scott Executive Director of Scientist Warning to Humanity and Climate Matters TV.  His main channel is here.

This was wonderfully promoted and hosted by Charles Gregoire and Heidi Brault (organizers).
———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

 

Advertisements
Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, New Video, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Videos, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut hits Philippines, Hong Kong on way to 中国 China

Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut hits Philippines, Hong Kong on way to 中国 China, One // Sep 16, 2018

By all measures, Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut is a monster storm. While the eyes of the West have been preoccupied with Hurricane Florence, a much larger and more powerful storm razed the northern Philippines, is causing large damage now in Hong Kong, and is heading to 中国 China. In my last two videos I examined, in great detail, the latest science on Super Storms, and here I show you specifically how Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut is further evidence that abrupt 气候变化 climate change has made our planet a very dangerous place.

As bad as these storms have been, the consequences to cities could have been much worse. Last year, if Hurricane Irma had not veered at the last minute, it would have razed Miami and the east coast of Florida, causing a trillion dollars of damage. If Florence was a bit further north it would be dumping its multi-trillion gallons of water on the major cities of the eastern USA like Washington, Boston, Philadelphia.

We need politicians who understand the reality of climate change consequences.
———- ———–

Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut hits Philippines, Hong Kong on way to 中国 China, Two // Sep 16, 2018

Typhoon 台风 Mangkhat. Buildings were rolled over onto other buildings. Massive trees were uprooted. Construction cranes were toppled over. Seawater surged into the city streets, and the storm surge broke into the lobby’s of buildings. Skyscrapers lost their external panels, and swayed for several hours.

As catastrophic as this typhoon 台风 damage was to Hong Kong and southern 中国 China and the Philippines, the western media was focused instead on Hurricane Florence dumping trillions of gallons of water on North Carolina, and refusing to leave. These massive Superstorms, simultaneously striking heavily populated regions on opposite sides of the planet are not freaks of nature. They are children of abrupt 气候变化 Climate Change, and those children are growing and getting stronger all the time. Watch out.

  • Denying 气候变化 climate change is criminal, in my opinion, as abrupt changes accelerate around our planet.
  • We cannot trust our lives to rich old white men who dominate the corridors of power.

——————–

These statistics show the power of Super Typhoon Mangkhut, CNN, Updated 2:37 AM ET, Sat September 15, 2018

Here are some statistics that show Mangkhut’s power:

  • Mangkhut was the strongest storm anywhere on the planet in 2018, with wind speeds at one stage of 285 kph (180 mph).
  • Mangkhut made landfall of 165 mph (270 kph), 75 mph (120 kph) stronger than Hurricane Florence that hit North Carolina on the same day.
  • Typhoon-force winds stretched for 270 kilometers (168 miles), the distance between Paris and Brussels.
  • It is the strongest storm to make landfall in the Philippines since Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, and the strongest to make landfall on the Philippines’ northern island of Luzon since Super Typhoon Megi in 2010.
  • On Luzon, more than 30 million people were expected to face tropical storm-force winds.

———- ———-

———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Collapse, Global Warming, New Video, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Videos, Warnings, Weather | Tagged | Leave a comment

The Science of Today’s Superstorms: 1 of 3

The Science of Today’s Superstorms: 1 of 3 // Sep 14, 2018

The West is focused on the massive deluge from Hurricane Florence drowning North Carolina, with big threats to people living amongst the stinky pig manure pools, coal ash piles left over from power plants, and toxic Superfund sites (witches brews of carcinogens).

Meanwhile, a much larger (double size of Florence) more intense (Category 5) hydraulic buzz-saw of a hurricane just razed the top of the Philippines and entered the very hot waters of the South China Sea heading directly for over 120 million people living near the Pearl River Delta in China.

Just another day on Earth with an effed-up climate.
———- ———-

Abrupt Climate Change Consequences Are Here Today: Superstorms: 2 of 3 // Sep 15, 2018

Science of Superstorms:

  • Sea-surface Temperatures over 26.5 C.
  • Warm water to Depth.
  • Not much wind shear.
  • More water vapour in atmosphere to turbocharge storms.
  • Wavy jet stream ridges constrain direction of storms.
  • Lack of steering winds allow storm to be almost stationary allowing deluges and 5 feet of rain in places.
  • Water on land surface fuels hurricane (brown ocean effect), so it takes a long time over land to lose strength.

All this and more is discussed.
———- ———-

 

As mentioned near the start of the video, David Korn Special Projects has been helping me here from day one and before.  He explains that while money matters, it is ‘like’ thirteenth in his top ten of hierarchy of values.  He seeks to help those who truly want to be able to be helped.  Structure projects, messages, not just mechanically, but strategically.  With both a heavy project management, financial management and sales, and a design background alike, he is a wide angle lens for business, efforts, and initiatives, and personal and professional effectiveness.  He is best used where many factors come into play.  For the fast take on him, suggest the 27:50 mark in this podcast. Segment–about eight minutes long for those short on time.
———- ———-

———- ———-
Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change, Videos, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Our Near-Term Future: What Current Arctic Sea-Ice Melt and Export Patterns Tell Us

Patterns of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss: Melt versus Export // Sep 6, 2018

Following up on my previous video, posted September 5th 2018 as Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis, the summer melting characteristics for Arctic Sea-Ice are definitely changing.

 

Melt occurs on:

  • 1) the top of the ice (air temperature above freezing, melt ponds, water within/between ice crystals, and ash/dirt in ice lower albedo),
  • 2) the edge of the ice (wave action fracturing, water mixing, turbulence),
  • 3) the bottom of the ice (water above freezing, fresh water lens, warmer salty water below).

Also, ice is exported out:

  • a) the Fram Strait (less now as ice retreats),
  • b) to the Atlantic north of Svalbard,
  • c) out the Nares Strait (more now) and
  • d) out the Canadian Archipelago channels (more now; no ridged ice left to block it).

—————————–

Further Dynamics of Arctic Sea Ice Loss // Sep 7, 2018

Following up on my previous 2 videos, the mechanisms for ice loss (surface melt, edge melt, bottom melt, export out Fram Strait, Nares Strait, Canadian Archipelago) are in flux.Understanding the dynamics of the melt is necessary to get a better educated guess on when the first total ice loss (blue ocean event) will occur, how long it will last, and how it will precondition the Arctic Ocean for subsequent years.

I make use of Zack Labe’s excellent Arctic Sea Ice graphics to explain to you many of the dynamics of Arctic Sea ice Loss.
—————————–

Arctic Sea-Ice Loss as a Pivot Point for Humanity // Sep 8, 2018

Fourth video of a series of four on the changing dynamics of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss (melt versus export) as we tease out clues as to when the first blue-ocean event will occur. Also:

  • what will happen after the first blue-ocean event, both in the Arctic and elsewhere?

How will things proceed in subsequent years, and what impacts will humanity have to face?

Link to Arctic Sea Ice Graphs, here.

‘Great map.  Link to very bottom’ shown here.
———- ———-

———- ———-

Everything you wanted to know about Arctic Sea-Ice Loss is in my 4 video series; all on YouTube.

My next few videos to be filmed will describe exactly what I expect to happen next.
———- ———-

   

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, New Video, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Videos, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis // Sep 5, 2018

It appears that Arctic Sea-Ice will hang on for another year, as the melt season draws to a close for 2018. No blue-ocean event this year. However, the nature of the melt is definitely changing, and we can discern patterns in the melt from year to year.

 

For example, at minimum-sea ice extent in Sept., 2014 there was still relatively thick ice (multi-year, and/or ridged ice) north of the Canadian Archipelago, but it pretty much vanished by the subsequent melt season. All that’s been left in September’s since then is ice less than a meter thick, apart from some 2 meter ice hanging on near the archipelago islands. What’s next? When? Why?

Stay tuned for 3 more ice videos.
———- ———-

Very substantial interview with Jennifer Hynes and Mike Ferrigan, on Extinction-Radio-Ep 91-Sept-04-2018.  Starts around 5:52 mark and continues to past 1:26 or ninety minutes+.

———- ———-

———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, New Video, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Videos, Warnings, Weather | Tagged | Leave a comment

Quality of Life drops as Climate Change hits Home

Quality of Life drops as Climate Change hits Home // Aug 29, 2018

Where I live, it has been too hot and too humid this summer. Quality of life has degraded. Ongoing climate system change is hitting my home, and is likely in-your-face as well this year; please comment on your own situation.

I chat about heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and monsoonal like torrential rains that are worsening as Arctic sea-ice degrades. What about human responses. Scientists are very worried but lack power. Politics is divisive.

As climate change causes more and more migration, governments become more and more populist and nationalistic and also deny climate change. What can we do??
———- ———-

———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

Posted in Climate Change, New Video, Rapid Climate Change | Tagged | Leave a comment

Earth Climate System: Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse

Earth Climate System: Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse // Aug 11, 2018

Ten years ago Timothy Lenton (b. 1973) spearheaded a scientific paper examining expert assessments on the types and likelihoods of Tipping Elements in the Climate System. A number of top European climate scientists published an update a few days ago, to get a handle on the risk of cascading climate feedbacks propelling the Earth into a hothouse state.

They suggest that we are on that path now, and have a decade or two to avoid the worst. I fear that we have already gone over that cliff, and I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.
———- ———-

———————–

Ref 1:  ‘Climate change: ‘Hothouse Earth‘ risks even if CO2 emissions slashed, By Matt McGrath — Environment correspondent, 6 August 2018

Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.  Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this “irreversible pathway”.  

‘Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.  An international team of climate researchers, writing in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says the warming expected in the next few decades could turn some of the Earth’s natural forces – that currently protect us – into our enemies‘.

—————
Ref 2. ‘Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene‘.  Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber.
PNAS August 9, 2018. 201810141; published ahead of print August 6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

Abstract:
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be.

‘If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values‘.
———- ———-

Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
———- ———-

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, New Video, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Videos, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments