How 2030 is the new 2100: Global Food Yields Already Dropping from Abrupt Climate Change // July 12, 2019
2030 is the new 2100. Climate change is ALREADY reducing global food yields TODAY, with an average 1% annual reduction in the worlds top ten global crops, providing 83% of food calories to humanity: top ten food crops:
barley, cassava, maize (corn), oil palm,
rapeseed (canola),rice, sorghum,
soybean, sugarcane, wheat.
Most reduced: oil palm (-13.4%); increased: soybeans (+3.5%).
Negatively affected regions are Europe, South Africa, and Australia; +ve is Latin America; mixed is Asia, North and Central America.
Growing season temperatures over all harvested areas is up 0.5 to 1.2 C since the early 1970s.
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Step Right Up in the Climate Casino: New Orleans Looks to Be Next // July 10, 2019
Once again, New Orleans, LA (NOLA) is threatened with inundation, which could result in yet another water-world type flooding disaster. About a week ago, the European forecast models projected a low pressure region developing and passing southward from land into the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening into a potential hurricane in the exceptionally warm ocean surface waters, and then looping back ashore near NOLA. Unfortunately, this projection is playing out (more notes below)
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Grave Flooding Risks in New Orleans, LA: Yet Again // July 10, 2019
(Continues from above:) The tropical storm, likely to become Hurricane Barry will dump several feet of water around and inside the city within a few short days. This huge amount of water will add to the already swollen, record duration flooding of the Mississippi River, which is at great risk of overtopping levees, flooding the city yet again..
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“The Prince of Wales has warned global leaders they have 18 critical months to solve climate change and restore the balance of nature, ensuring the survival of the human race.” https://t.co/fzbqhNj1K9
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Nice work from my former colleague, Deepak Ray @RayDeepakk, on how climate changes are already beginning to affect crop yields and food security. https://t.co/dYjDGKUBCB
This seems technical but is actually pretty momentous because it upends conventional wisdom: new study finds the Energy Return on Investment (EROI) for fossil fuels is declining fast, and that renewables are the answer to this dilemmahttps://t.co/c08nbBYJNZ
"What caused this year's bizarre winter and spring weather in the U.S. heartland? Top scientists point to melting Arctic sea ice as a potential factor in recent extreme weather" via @PeterWSinclair for @CC_Yale: https://t.co/PvOntgQfQi
Tiny Blip in Jet Stream Submerges Large Parts of Washington, DC // July 8, 2019
Only a few days ago, America celebrated its July 4th Independence Day, and the government whipped out tanks for Washington, DC festivities. I hope the military hardware was moved, or it may have been submerged today by raging torrents of water from flash floods due to over a months rainfall dropping in a few hours. Perhaps next party, more appropriate military equipment will be amphibians, or boats; heck, maybe even submarines!!
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Our Climate Casino: The Ultimate Reality Game of RISK // Jul 7, 2019
Going to Hades in a Handbasket?? No wall could stop Mexican Hail, over 3 feet deep clogging streets of Guadalajara. European Heatwave broke; new report details climate change root cause. Massive flooding inundated far northern Irkutsk (remember this “Game of Risk” country!); unprecedented numbers/sizes of wildfires scorched many places within Arctic Circle; Baked Alaska had record heatwave; species at risk are migrating; seaweed blooms 5,000 miles long appeared, running from west Africa all the way to Mexico. Eco-anxiety is a public crisis; nice to have company. Mussels cooked in their shells. Sea ice collapsing.
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Game of RISK in Real Life: Abrupt Climate Casino Disruption // Jul 7, 2019
Continues above Climate Casino video. I am fighting off shingles. Please, no sympathy but donations are gratefully encouraged. Live long and prosper:)!! Easy to use donate feature, here. No PayPal required.
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Since Southern Annular Mode (SAM) wind circulation; also ocean currents circumventing Antarctica appear to have been breached in 2014, there will be profound consequences. Jet streams will further criss-cross the Antarctica Ice Cap, mixing cold dry air with hotter humid air, accelerating sea-ice loss and increasing glacial ice-cap melt and ice sheet calving rates. South Pole warming rates will accelerate to exceed global averages, similar to what has played out and is ongoing in the Arctic. Antarctic Albedo Feedbacks will kick into gear, further disrupting global jet streams.
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Wall Isolating Antarctic Cold, Ice, and Snow Breached in 2014 // Jul 5, 2019
Over the last 40 years, passive microwaves emitted from Earth’s surface were detected both night and day and through clouds (thus in all weather conditions) by satellites sensors, measuring Antarctica Sea Ice extent, concentration, and area cycling up and down throughout yearly seasons, with even greater ranges of variability in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Arctic. Sea ice trended up over the years, reaching a maximum in 2014, but since then has plummeted, likely indicating a tipping point breach of the Southern Annular Mode wall. No, Prez T cannot rebuild it.
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Antarctic Sea Ice Tipping Point Crossed in 2014: Abrupt Climate System Disruption Accelerates // Jul 5, 2019
Up until 2014, strong winds circumventing Antarctica (and resulting powerful circumpolar ocean currents) were a barrier isolating the continent from thermal intrusions. Sea ice pulled away from coastlines more strongly over passing decades by increasing Southern Annular Mode (winds strengths) due to leftward Coriolis deflection. Sea ice extent trended upwards by 1% per decade. Feb 2014 had record high Antarctic sea ice extent. Then the barrier was breached. The average Antarctic sea ice extent plummeted a staggering 2 million square kilometres within 3 years.
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To Arctic Blue Ocean Zero and Beyond. What? When? Where? Why? What then? // Jul 4, 2019
If jet streams become quasi-stationary sometime after Blue Ocean Zero, as I contemplated last video, what happens? Living under a trough will almost be stormy and raining; while living under a ridge you will have long duration heatwaves and drought. Neither situation makes it easy to grow food; how will we feed ourselves? Maybe the best place to live would be right under the Rossby wave, in the transition zone. Not at the wave peak, which has extended right up to the North Pole, or at the trough bottom, which has crossed the equator, but perhaps in regions where the wave moves nearly north-south or south-north?
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Incredible video just in from Alexandria where a torrent of water is rushing into an Old Town parking garage. Unfortunately my wife’s car is on level 2. 😟 Be safe out there folks – don’t put yourself or 1st responders in harms way. pic.twitter.com/wthG5lvJbm
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Wow – this is maddening… folks should not ever ever try to drive through this. Turn around, go home, wait it out. https://t.co/jSW2OEb1s2
— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) July 8, 2019
Today's downpour in DC produced 3.3" of rain in an hour — that's a 1-in-200 year event. Last year, DC got a 2.79" downpour in an hour, a 1-in-100 year event.
US air quality's worsening. All Mississippi beaches are shut due to toxic algae. Extreme weather's pummeling the US. #Climate changes are accelerating. Alaska's baking. Flint doesn't have safe #water for all. Trump's giving an environment speech today & won't mention any of this.
"Katharine Wilkinson makes a distinction between denialism and bystanderism, which takes the form of people saying “they care about it” but not engaging in meaningful action: 'That’s when I want to shake people to say, "You know how little time we have?"'" https://t.co/qnIt7vKqrN
— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) July 8, 2019
“Researchers in a warming Arctic are discovering organisms, frozen and presumed dead for millennia, that can bear life anew. These ice age zombies range from simple bacteria to multicellular animals.” https://t.co/wSfb6VBwhE
— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) July 8, 2019
What will life be like after Arctic Blue-Ocean-Zero: Abrupt Climate System Disruption // Jul 4, 2019
Blue Ocean Zero (BO-0; first Sept with essentially zero Arctic sea ice) is ever more likely each year. I chat on when it will occur + dire consequences we can expect. BO+2 years will have 3 months ice-free (Aug-Sept-Oct); BO+6 extends to July and Nov; BO+9 will be ice-free year round.
Greenland, alone and exposed, will shed ice like crazy (greatly increasing sea-level rise); the cold centroid will shift from the North Pole to be over Greenland. Jet streams can become quasi-stationary, only shifting with the seasons. Where will we live to avoid the worst; how will we grow food?
Canada Day Fireworks over Ottawa River // Jul 3, 2019
In Canuckville, we celebrate Canada Day on July 1st, and Ottawa is the place to be. Downtown streets are closed to vehicles, and thousands of people party on the streets.
This year, for the first time, I was determined to get front row seats for the fireworks, The place to be is on the Quebec side of the recently flooded Ottawa River, right next to the Alexandra Bridge. The best seats in the house, since the fireworks are launched off the bridge, at an estimated 60 degree angle, to the west, and the westerly breeze blows many of the ashes right back onto the bridge!
By way of penance for my great enjoyment of the display, I’ll have to study GHG emissions from producing and firing off these type of displays. At least there were no army tanks in downtown Ottawa.
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Fun Video: Experiencing a Storm on Sand Lake in a Boat // Jul 3, 2019
Often people say that my videos are too serious, and I agree, but it is hard to be too jovial talking about Abrupt Climate System Change. On the Canada Day long weekend I was out on the lake on a boat, and a storm visited me.
I could see on my trusty weather app, called RadarScope (check it out; it’s the best), that the tornado warned storm had no actual tornado, and not too much lightning, so I stuck it out, and didn’t hightail it into port. Of course I had to film a video of the storm, for your viewing pleasure, with no narration. The rain was intense, but it was quite calm since surface winds were minimal. Enjoy:)
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Fun Video of Windy Storm Number Two on Sand Lake // kk
Not every video I post needs to be on Abrupt Climate Change and extreme weather events unravelling our climate and weather systems. Here, I was out relaxing on a boat on Sand Lake, near Elgin Ontario on our Canada Day long weekend, and a tornado warned series of storms came rumbling through. This video was shot on the water, my second of two, and since my trusty weather radar app called RadarScope indicated no tornado and minimal lightning, I thought that a nice video on this storm was in order; the second storm of five! that came through the early evening of Saturday June 29th. Winds at the surface were strong in this storm, in contrast to my last video where winds very minimal, this storm whipped up a nice surf. Storms, like people, are all different!! Enjoy!
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Wait for it. 100 years of #climate anomalies in 15 seconds. Where do new pipelines fit in again?
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Includes the documentary based on my book, Being the Change. Consider hosting a watch party to get your community inspired!https://t.co/RdiCLZ0kx0
New study in @AMSJCLi to model #Arctic sea ice volume since 1901: "The sea ice decline over the 1979-2010 period is pan-Arctic and 6 times larger than the net decline during the 1901-40 period."
CHAIN REACTION: Hundreds of riders hurtle down an icy cliff and crash into one another as "Mountain of Hell" downhill bike race lives up to its name. https://t.co/PTM72wFr8ypic.twitter.com/d4234a0Psx
The pressure waves evident in the audio of this video are something I have heard in every intercept and extreme close-range video with a tornado. We have to figure out how to measure this @ChasinSpinhttps://t.co/OYp0N5sWGk
Sad Slushy Sloppy Spiraling South Status of Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 28, 2019
I chat about the sorry slushy spiraling downward sloppy state of what is otherwise known as Arctic Sea-Ice, and the profound consequences to weather and climate that result from feedback’s causing Arctic temperature amplification to slowing wavier jet streams. I go into the nitty-gritty details of plots and maps that can easily be found by Googling “Arctic Sea Ice Graphs” and having fun by clicking things.
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Arctic Sea-Ice Slippery Slope Spiralling Southward Shrinkage to Blue Ocean Event: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 28, 2019
Second video, continues where first video left off.
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Abrupt Climate Change Mechanisms Causing Profoundly Disturbing European Heatwave: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 28, 2019
Feline “Shackleton the Explorer” puts on a brave faced cameo appearance as a prelude to my exceedingly profoundly disturbing chat on the ongoing European Heatwave.
Almost 500 million people in Europe are being subject to exceedingly high heatwave temperatures in June that exceed those dangerous conditions in the 2003 July/August heatwave that killed 70,000 Europeans (50,000 in France alone).
A very slow, very wavy, persistently stuck Jet Stream ridge lies over Europe; carrying exceedingly hot dry air from the Sahara Desert northward, humidifying it over the rapidly warming Mediterranean Sea, and
transporting this very hot humid air over vast regions of densely populated Europe, with its lack of air conditioning (2% in Germany; 5% in France).
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Abrupt Climate Change Mechanisms Causing Profoundly Disturbing European Heatwave: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 28, 2019
A packet of air sitting over the Sahara Desert
gets rapidly warmed up by the relentless heat of the Sun in a cloudless sky, with single digit relative humidity (dry) conditions, and 50+ C temperatures.
Transported northward by the stuck jet stream ridge, it crosses the rapidly warming water surface of the Mediterranean Sea where it reaches relative humidities of 70 to 80%.
Saturated with water vapour, it continues northward guided under the jet stream ridge to cover vast areas of Europe with unbearable temperatures (reaching 45.9 C) and high humidities.
And it is only June; what will July and August be like?
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OK, so, turns out the ocean has warmed about 20% more than we previously thought… which has dire consequences for all life on our planet on land and in the water https://t.co/glPMbQV91D
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Yesterday's (26 Jun 10h30) land surface temperatures🌡️ from @NASAEarth's #MODIS 🛰️ clearly show the footprint of the #heatwave 🌞 over Europe when compared to mean June 2018 LST's. pic.twitter.com/qRL8AXAkiP
In what’s becoming an increasingly common story, a major city has run out of water. Chennai, India is home to 4.65 million and a severe deficit of water to serve their needs. This is why India's sixth biggest city, has run out of water https://t.co/5pAyQ3UJ3Dpic.twitter.com/Jym9FR1Q2W
Emergency mode entered in Irkutsk region due to the strong flood in Taishet, Nizhneudinsk and Tulun districts. 2 people died, hundreds are evacuated. Federal motorway Sibir is closed in three directions. Now the most badly hit is Tulun town. Pictures by https://t.co/3f8FyeKn6spic.twitter.com/jKgto8bpHL
— The Siberian Times (@siberian_times) June 28, 2019
Fatal Wetbulb Temperatures Reached at Pakistan-India Border // Jun 19, 2019
Analyzing data from the Meteologix website for India suggests that present extremely hot temperatures combined with high humidities exceed the 35 C (95F) wetbulb temperature threshold of human survivability (even sitting naked in the shade, in a gale, covered in sweat, your survive 6-8 hours at most).
It doesn’t matter how healthy, fit, and strong you are; the physics is fatal. Luckily, the worst conditions seen on the Pakistan-India border (mostly in Pakistan) are for a few hours, and not the full day, but death rates in this region must be huge (and are currently unreported).
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Twenty-Seven Ways to Die from Wetbulb 35 C (95 F) Temperatures on the Pakistan-India Border // Jun 19, 2019
Since our average human core body temperature is 37 C (98.6 F) (with some variation) and our skin temperature is a few degrees C cooler than this, a wetbulb temperature of 35 C (95 F) is the limit for human shedding of heat and thus survival. This is true for other mammal species as well, dependent on their specific core body temperatures.
How do we die with these conditions, even the very healthiest among us? It turns out there are 7 major organs that can crap out, each essentially by 5 different mechanisms. Luckily, some of these 7×5 combinations are not possible, so there are only 27 different ways to die; not 35:)
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Declassified US spy satellite images show 40 years of dramatic glacier ice loss in the Himalayan mountains, threatening the water supply of millions of people. This region has the highest concentration of ice on Earth outside of the North and South Poles https://t.co/wdGd0wpdivpic.twitter.com/OBOTgN7zi8
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Antarctica 🇦🇶 & Greenland 🇬🇱 on the same scale with/without their ice sheets. Comparison highlights the difference in dimensions, sea level rise equivalent, bedrock topography, ice-ocean interface,… pic.twitter.com/i0d6iAQCH2
IMF estimates GDP to grow 3.3% in 2019 & that implies: * 1.4% CO₂ growth if CO₂/GDP improves as in the last decade * <0% CO₂ grow requires CO₂/GDP to have one of largest recorded declines
India: "At least 21 cities in India, including capital New Delhi, Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad, will run out of groundwater by 2020, affecting around 100 million people."https://t.co/lDK2wgb4VO
Limit of Human Survivability at High Temperature, Humidity Conditions Leading to Uninhabitability // Jun 16, 2019
A combination of extreme temperatures and high humidity, called heat index, humidex, etc. can be calculated many ways; the net result: when you reach wetbulb temperature (defined as temperature at which air “parcel”reaches 100% humidity) of 35 C (95F) or higher your body cannot cool via sweating, since your sweat no longer evaporates.
Core body temperature rises, you get heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and die within 6-8 hours. Many mortalities in the European heatwave in 2003 (plus Chicago event) were likely due to dwelling temperatures; humidity from cooking, etc reaching this fatal physical limit.
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The Coast is Toast (Uninhabitable) when Sea-Surface-Temperatures of 35 C or 95 F: Physical Limits // Jun 16, 2019
When, and where will people start dropping like flies as wetbulb temperature (defined as temp. when relative humidity is 100%) is 35 C (95F) or higher. We know where.
Outside, on coastlines of the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, etc. when Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) reaches 35 C; we’ve hit 33 C in previous years, perhaps higher in shallow water, with little upwelling, or even in small inlets or near hot rivers or lakes. Two degrees C summer SST is the difference between life and death, death within 6-8 hours. Inside apartments, in big cities due to Urban Heat-Island effects…
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Brutal Physics of 35 C (95 F) Sea-Surface-Temperatures to make coastal dwellers drop like flies // Jun 16, 2019
Let’s say it is 45 C (113 F) in a city in the Middle East or India, on a coastline where the Sea-Surface-Temperature has reached 35 C (95 F). Since the land is hotter than the water there will be a sea-breeze (from water to land), that will be laden with moisture from evaporation of sea water.
When there is enough water vapour to bring relative humidity over the coastline to 52% or higher, but not enough for monsoonal rain, then people on the coast, outside, will die in 6-8 hours due to a physical limit imposed by our core body temperature. That is the brutal physics of wetbulb temperature and human physiology.
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Air Conditioning Access Divides those who get to Live from those who DIE: Class-divides Brutal // Jun 16, 2019
Suppose the rural area near New Delhi is 50 C (122F), dropping to 30 C at night. Society divides into those with access to air conditioning, and those without, as long as rickety power grids hold up to demand spikes. AC runs 24/7 for owners.
Those without are SOL (shi*-out-of-luck) as waste heat cranked out by ACs to the street is hot and humid, and adds to the urban heat island effect, driving up outdoor street temperature and humidity, especially in confined alleyways to above lethal wet-bulb temperatures. So poorer AC-less people die so that the wealthier AC folk live. Yuk.
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Brilliant Ways to Eliminate Heat Exhaustion and Heatstroke by Stabilization of Core Body Tempe // Jun 16, 2019
Brilliant ideas: Produce a simple combined digital thermometer, and a relative humidity sensor that is tiny and wearable. This device calculates and displays wet bulb temperature of your immediate space, inside or outside. It activates alarms when dangerous wet bulb conditions are reached.
It sends alerts and your location to emergency responders who come and get you for emergency medical aid and transport to save your life. Combine it with what I call a “chill suit or device” from India’s Dharma Technologies, to keep your core body temperature safely stable at all times.
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NO NEW NORMAL! PAUL BECKWITH, Posted on June 12, 2019, by Radio Ecoshock host, favorite interviewer, Alex Smith: Listen to or download this 28 minute interview with Paul Beckwith in CD Quality or Lo-Fi.
‘Climate truth is breaking into the mainstream. Like this headline from USA Today: “End of civilization: climate change apocalypse could start by 2050 if we don’t act”… But this USA Today story is just one blip buried in celebrity news and the Donald Trump show. Still – maybe soon they will hear about Radio Ecoshock and Paul Beckwith. Paul is a regular correspondent here….
HITTING THE CARBON GAS PEDAL ‘Paul has a little more company now as big papers like the New York Times, USA Today, and the Guardian UK are starting to report on the developing climate disaster. Behind that news, Mark Kaufman at Mashable jolted me with the basics. It’s not just that we are adding billions of tons of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere again this year. We are doing it faster. He writes, quote:
‘“After the Scripps monitoring station atop Hawaii’s towering Mauna Loa went online in 1959, CO2 rose around just 0.7 [parts per million] ppm per year in the early decades of operation. Then, in the 1990s, the rate increased to 1.5 ppm per year. The last decade has averaged 2.2 ppm. Yet, in the last year [2018], it was a 3.5 ppm gain. Concentrations of the planet’s most influential greenhouse gas are accelerating.”
That is the scariest news of all. We are literally hitting the gas pedal, as we drive toward the cliff. Isn’t that what is behind everything else we talk about?’
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Paul Beckwith at the Kanata-Carleton Green Party of Canada Nomination Meeting // Jun 16, 2019
‘Paul gives a talk on Abrupt Climate Change as part of the Kanata-Carleton Federal Riding nomination meeting for theGreen Party of Canada.
Our long time helper, David Korn, is also connected to SW2H. We all know each other here. A great contribution by Charles and Heidi both and the tirelessly productive, Stuart H. Scott of ClimateMatters.tv.
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) June 16, 2019
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Why I do what I do.
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Existential Abrupt Climate Change Risks to Humanity: Part 1 of 3 // June 7, 2019
First of three videos. Humanity is stressing vital life-support systems on Earth to the breaking point. It is incomprehensible to a thinking person like myself how:
the vast majority of the public continues to be blissfully unaware of the clear and present dangers that we face.
For many years I have been dutifully trying to take the latest cutting edge science on global Earth system changes, and:
translate it into easily understandable layperson language,
so more and more of the general public can understand the reality and truth about the extent of devastation to
our life-support ecosystems on Earth.
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The Chernobyl exclusion zone shows a glimpse of a worl
inhospitable to life. According to a new climate policy
paper, much of Earth could look the same by 2050 if humans
don’t act fast to mitigate global warming: Shutterstock
Humanity is Stressing Vital Life-Support Systems to the Breaking Point: Part 2 of 3 // June 7, 2019
‘According to the paper, climate change poses a “near- to mid-term existential threat to human civilization,” and there’s a good chance society could collapse as soon as 2050 if serious mitigation actions aren’t taken in the next decade‘.
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Harsh Realities of Abrupt Climate Change: Part 3 of 3 // June 7, 2019
Third of three videos. Ref (click link here, for download of original PDF): ‘The report, entitled “Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach,” lays out a future where society could collapse due to instability set off by migration patterns of billions of people affected by drought, rising sea levels, and environmental destruction‘.
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— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) June 8, 2019
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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The DNC says they won't be holding debates on a single issue area, but that's OK. They should be able to have a multi-issue climate debate with no trouble at all. pic.twitter.com/BVrwebSPsT
“Any attempt to suppress information on the security risks of climate change threatens to leave the American public vulnerable and unsafe.” https://t.co/XXl129DVve@washingtonpost
India's massive heatwave has grown so dire that in places the authorities are telling people not to venture outside after 11 a.m. #Hotnewworldhttps://t.co/xogp1UBjWt
Jet Stream Shift 17 degrees Southward to Greenland
Summary
Well known and respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos of sometimes daunting subjects, especially in climate system science, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences at YouTube.
Frequently called upon for commentary by fellow educators, activists, and public. Physicist, Engineer, and part-time professor at the University of Ottawa. His primary interest is joining-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change to determine where we are heading, and how fast, and what it all means for us and our amazing planet.
