A Marine Joy Ride in Paradise: Contemplating the Contemporary, Future and Past // Oct 23, 2020
What can be better than being on a small lake in Ontario in the Fall, puttering around an island taking in the brilliant colours of the shoreline forest, while inhaling crisp fresh air and contemplating “our rickety planet”, in the words of the illustrious and brilliant Elon Musk. Rickety indeed.
Weather is going to hell in a hand basket, as:
the Arctic snow and ice melts to oblivion,
our wavy and ever slowing jet stream fracturing into a million swirls and eddies,
our political systems degenerating into idiocy and fascism,
our financial systems heaving under inequalities as we accelerate to a world where a handful of people grab the entire wealth of the planet,
the raw savagery of racism coming to the fore and openly exposed for all to see,
as evil triumphs over good in all aspects of society.
Battles between good and evil are being lost on all fronts, but the war is just beginning. We really are over the brink and plunging into the abyss. I hope that our proverbial barrel is sturdy and well padded for the impacts to come.
Ref: ‘TheRideau Canal, also known unofficially as the Rideau Waterway, connects Canada’s capital city of Ottawa, Ontario, to Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence River at Kingston, Ontario. It is 202 kilometres long. The name Rideau, French for “curtain”, is derived from the curtain-like appearance of the Rideau River’s twin waterfalls where they join the Ottawa River. The canal system uses sections of two rivers, the Rideau and the Cataraqui, as well as several lakes. Parks Canada operates the Rideau Canal.
‘The canal was opened in 1832 as a precaution in case of war with the United States. It remains in use today primarily for pleasure boating, with most of its original structures intact. The locks on the system open for navigation in mid-May and close in mid-October. It is the oldest continuously operated canal system in North America, and in 2007 it was registered as a UNESCO World Heritage Site‘.
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Stunning Scenery from Sand Lake to Jones Falls in World Heritage Designated Rideau Canal Waterway// Oct 23, 2020
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Our @CarbonBrief Q3 State of the Climate report is now out. We find 2020 is more likely than not to be the warmest year on record despite a growing La Niña event. We also saw the second lowest Arctic sea ice on record, and record high GHG concentrations. https://t.co/6nXkHN4KCApic.twitter.com/3h3ajar2Cl
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Aerial view shows smoke billowing from the East Troublesome Fire in Colorado, that has now burned at least 170,000 acres and is just 5% contained, becoming the second largest wildfire in Colorado history. https://t.co/jbsEHwACozpic.twitter.com/i3WYZ6iO8E
Veryovkina Cave is 2,212 meters (7,257 ft) deep and is the deepest-known cave on Earth. Its entrance is situated 2,309 meters (7,575 ft) above sea level in Abkhazia, Georgia https://t.co/WTzO0xHOCvpic.twitter.com/CuvbE0jAuN
BREAKING—US smashes the old daily record with a new record of 77,640 new #COVID19 cases, up from the previous record of 75,723 on July 29. And we added 921 new deaths too.
➡️Safe to say Trump’s narrative we are “rounding the corner” is absolute garbage. https://t.co/tQsn4PwImp
Coronavirus Transmission; Indoor Ventilation Chat from a Scenic Niagara Falls “Ghost Town” Vista // Oct 18, 2020
I visited Niagara Falls for a few days this past week, and got a first-hand look at how the virus has completely devastated this border tourist town. Normally the town gets 12 million visitors a year (averaging 33,000 per day), in the peak months of July, August, and September it is way more than the average. With only a few percent of this number of tourists now, the place is essentially a ghost town. It looks like a neutron bomb went off killing all the people but leaving all the structures intact.
In my previous Coronavirus videos, I strongly emphasized that COVID-19 is an Indoor Disease. Sure, if you hug and kiss people outside you can transmit, however if you social distance and wash your hands frequently you are relatively safe being outside without a mask. I chat about how indoor air circulation is vital for suppressing the virus, and mask wearing indoors is imperative but not sufficient to stay safe.
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This is a fascinating theory on the 1908 Tunguska explosion. An iron containing asteroid grazing the Earth and then continuing on into space. It sounds very plausible to me…I always wondered about this possibility years ago since no debris was found.https://t.co/1p3oAKVBov
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“We declare clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency,”
Sadly, governments have never made a serious attempt to restrict fossil fuel production – instead, they’ve offered endless subsidies.#ActOnClimatehttps://t.co/3ZVApNrSTw
“The study, published today in Science Advances, shows that only a few degrees of warming in the Arctic is enough ‘to abruptly activate large-scale permafrost thawing,’ suggesting a ‘sensitive trigger’ for greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost.” https://t.co/nlZ6w0pUiR
Earth Energy Imbalance – EEI: How HEAT Impacts Ocean, Land, Cryosphere, and Atmosphere: Part 1 of 2 // Sep 25, 2020
Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere driving global warming. The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is the most critical number defining the prospects for continued and accelerating global warming and climate change. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system – particularly how much and where the heat is distributed – is fundamental to understanding consequences like:
warming oceans,
atmosphere and land;
rising surface temperatures;
rising sea levels; and
loss of grounded and floating ice,
which are all fundamental concerns for society. I chat about a new peer-reviewed study, part of Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) efforts to update Earth’s heat budget and give updated numbers on ocean warming and heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land. The long-term Earth system heat gain over the period 1971–2018 comprises a total heat gain of 358 ± 37 ZJ (Z – Zeta is 10**21) equivalent to a global heating rate of 0.47 ± 0.1 W/m2.
Heat distribution has the global ocean with 89%, broken down into 52% in the upper 700m ocean depths, 28% for the 700–2000m depths and 9% for below 2000m depths.
Heat gain over land amounts to 6%, 4% is available for the melting of grounded and floating ice, and only 1% is available for atmospheric warming.
EEI is not only continuing, but also increasing: it amounts to 0.87±0.12 W/m2 during 2010–2018. Stabilization of climate, the goal of the universally agreed upon United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, requires that EEI be reduced to approximately zero to achieve Earth system quasi-equilibrium.
The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere needs to be reduced from about 410 ppm to 353 ppm to increase the amount of heat radiation to space by 0.87 W/m2, bringing Earth back towards overall energy balance. This simple number, EEI, is the most fundamental metric that the scientific community and public must be aware of as the measure of how well the world is doing in the task of bringing climate change under control, and we call for an implementation of the EEI into the global stocktake based on the best available science.
Continued quantification and reduced uncertainties in the Earth heat inventory can be best achieved through the maintenance of the current global climate observing system, its extension into areas of gaps in the sampling, and the establishment of an international framework for concerted multidisciplinary research of the Earth heat inventory as presented in the study.
NEW: In part 4 of The President's Taxes, my colleagues and I report on how Trump transplanted Washington's favor-seeking to his family’s hotels & resorts — earning millions as a gatekeeper to his own administration.https://t.co/ZpzODAWI5R
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Can’t say I’ve ever seen this one before -and I’ve been covering weather for well over 30 years. It’s over 20° at 2 pm, we are under a severe thunderstorm watch (not a warning which means⚡️imminent) AND a Frost Advisory for overnight has just been issued 😳. #ottweather#ottnewspic.twitter.com/T0tD8Z7nua
Why ventilation in schools matters. Guidance from my brilliant colleague Jeff Siegel: “We should be targeting the schools in areas where there are the highest COVID case counts, low socioeconomic status and other risk factors.” https://t.co/c1wFMcKg8o
80% of Earth's insect species live in the Tropics and are highly sensitive to abrupt climate change. Those not already wiped out will struggle to survive the extreme heat and flooding of 1.5°C global warming set for 2023. The market won't fix this. https://t.co/GhxTSPio9S
“One of the lessons learnt from this crisis is that we must change our ways. Scientists warn that to avoid future crises, we must drastically change our diets and move to plant-rich foods. For the sake of the animals, planet and the health of our children” https://t.co/IpsCdUD0x2
Video technology and science can brilliantly converge to show an active volcano close up. Here explorer Sam Cossman operates a camera-mounted drone to capture high-definition images of the spectacular yet dangerous Marum Crater in Vanuatu [full video: https://t.co/28YsmSw2Ii] pic.twitter.com/4FbxjokuDq
How Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is WORSE than Expected; Dependent on Initial Temperature: 1 of 3 // Oct 4, 2020
Part 1: I chat in detail in a three video series on how today’s climate and rate of change of climate related to the Eocene and PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum). Despite recent advances, the link between evolution of atmospheric CO2 and climate during the Eocene greenhouse period remains unclear. Modelling studies suggest that to achieve the global warmth that characterized the early Eocene, warmer climates must be more sensitive to CO2 forcing than colder climates.
In other words, climate sensitivity (temperature vs CO2 level) depends on the starting conditions. In the new peer-reviewed paper that I discuss, they test this assertion in the geological record by combining a new high-resolution boron isotope-based CO2 record with novel estimates of Global Mean Temperature.
They find that Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) was indeed higher during the warmest intervals of the Eocene, agreeing well with recent model simulations, and declined through the Eocene as global climate cooled. These observations indicate that the canonical IPCC range of ECS (1.5 to 4.5 °C per doubling) is unlikely to be appropriate for high-CO2 warm climates of the past, and the state dependency of ECS may play an increasingly important role in determining the state of future climate as the Earth continues to warm. In other words, we are fucked.
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New Peer-Reviewed Research: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is Worse that We Thought: Part 2 of 3 // Oct 4, 2020
‘The Eocene Epoch is the most recent greenhouse period in Earth’s history. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature peaked in the early Eocene, and both declined towards the late Eocene, ultimately leading to an icehouse state at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition.
However, to better constrain the potential mechanisms driving the early Eocene warmth and the subsequent cooling, high-resolution records of CO2 and temperature are required. While obtaining continuous marine records of temperature through this interval has been an ongoing effort, similar records for CO2, are fragmented and of low temporal resolution with large uncertainties, and thus remain insufficient to fully characterize the climate dynamics of the Eocene.’
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Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (56 million years ago) informs us on today’s Climate: Part 3 of 3 // Oct 5, 2020
Third video.
Ref 2: ‘What Are “Proxy” Data?‘ ‘In paleoclimatology, or the study of past climates, scientists use what is known as proxy data to reconstruct past climate conditions. These proxy data are preserved physical characteristics of the environment that can stand in for direct measurements. Paleoclimatologists gather proxy data from natural recorders of climate variability such as tree rings, ice cores, fossil pollen, ocean sediments, corals and historical data. By analyzing records taken from these and other proxy sources, scientists can extend our understanding of climate far beyond the instrumental record‘.
‘Rapid change and environmental turmoil At the onset of the PETM, oceans acidified in less than 10,000 years (a geological blink) by around 0.3pH units as average surface ocean temperatures across the planet rose by 4° to 5°C (7-9°F), with the subsurface oceans warming by 5-6°C (9-11°F). Ecosystems across the world were plunged into turmoil, with poleward migrations, decline of reefs, extinctions of some sea-bottom-living creatures, and in some places 20% of land plants went extinct while plant diversity dropped by more than a third.
‘In mammals the effects included strong natural selection for small body size, and high species turnover, though there was no vertebrate mass extinction. Globally the resulting climate of the early Eocene was up to 15°C (27°F) warmer than today, supporting lush vegetation on Antarctica and the Arctic‘.
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If you are looking for the hottest water in our part of the world… it is under the 24-48 hour path of Delta. pic.twitter.com/MRANQ4jpeo
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The Arctic had the second lowest summer sea ice extent on record in 2020, continuing the loss of ice observed by satellites since the late 1970s. (Data from @NSIDC) pic.twitter.com/iYU4LELrpE
Salty Ocean Parts Getting Saltier; Fresher Parts Getting Fresher: From Amplified Hydrological Cycle // Sep 25, 2020
We know that as climate change accelerates wet regions of the planet are getting wetter and dry regions of the planet are getting drier.
In this video, I chat about new research showing that ocean regions that have high salinity (very salty) are getting even saltier (since Evaporation-E exceeds Precipitation-P),
while low salinity (fresher) regions are getting even fresher (salinity is decreasing since P exceeds E).
I show salinity for the ocean surface (Sea Surface Salinity – SSS) down to a depth of 2000 m (6600 feet) on a 1×1 degree grid between 1960 and 2017.
The Salinity Contrast (SC) (maximum-minimum) has increased by 7.5% at the surface (SC0), 2.9% between 0 and 1000 m (SC1000) and increased 1.6% between 0 and 2000 m (SC2000). These contrast amplifications are caused by the global hydrological cycleintensifying by between 2 to 4% between 1960 and 2017.
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Global temperature anomalies by month through August 2020. Every month so far this year has been ≥0.85°C above the 1951-1980 climate baseline.
*Note: M = sunspot cycle max, m = sunspot cycle min, V = volcano
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“Under a ‘climate lockdown,’ governments would limit private-vehicle use, ban consumption of red meat, and impose extreme energy-saving measures, while fossil-fuel companies would have to stop drilling.” The great @MazzucatoM (1/2). https://t.co/L7lN1sMzHC
I've been asked to share our R(t) estimates for today. Overall, Canada at 1.24, with tremendous heterogeneity across the country. Ontario, Alberta, Quebec growing; BC at R(t) = 1 for the past few days. Atlantic very quiet. MB/SK smouldering. pic.twitter.com/8Rek0NKlhk
Scientists have spotted a once-in-a-century climate anomaly during World War I (torrential rains and unusually cold temperatures) that likely increased mortality during the war and the influenza pandemic in the years that followed https://t.co/vohoUlTPbYpic.twitter.com/utjf9M23Kg
How Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons Change the Strength and Waviness of Jet Streams: 1 of 3 // Sep 17, 2020
My main intention in this 3 part video series is to show you how large cyclones (hurricanes, tropical cyclones, typhoons, even medicanes) interact with the jet streams, and can either:
Add energy to them (amplify them) or
Take energy from them, depending on their size, extent, rotation direction, and proximity to ridges and/or troughs.
The modifiedjet stream (faster or slower; wavier or less wavy; streakier or more uniform)) that results from this interaction then propagates thousands of miles downstream and changes weather there.
Specifically, I show how the strong tropical cyclones that hit the Japan, South Korea region amplified the ridges and troughs of the jet stream, which then propagated downstream over many days and then caused a record breaking weather whiplashing from record warm temperatures in parts of Colorado to freezing temperatures and even snowfall.
It is clear that the jet stream, which guides storms, can have high amplitude ridges and troughs that can break off the jet stream (cutoff lows, for example) generating cyclones, and now it should be clear that cyclones can themselves modify the jet streams by interacting with them.
Yes, the dog wags it’s tail, but clearly the moving tail can also wag the dog!!
‘In the first week of September, sea ice extent took a sharp downward turn, exceeding the pace of decline for any previous year during that period, and placing the 2020 sea ice minimum firmly as second lowest—after 2012—in the 42-year continuous satellite record. Pulses of warm air from north-central Siberia are responsible for the late downward trend. Sea ice decline has slowed in the past few days, and the annual minimum is imminent.’
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Perfect example of a tipping point,
in more ways than one:)
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Editor / dk: Paul as a rule eschews public mentions of jubilees on view counts and site visits, but seems more than fair, as we enter our sixth year of five to date, to mention that Paul’s YouTube channel hit five million views a week or so ago, with over twenty-one thousand subscribers now, with certainly well over 600 videos.
And here–at this website–we topped half a million views this summer (now closer to 600k), with 258k discreet visitors, over 26,000 followers, and spread over 189 countries and principalities. This is upon 372 posts or just slightly below, 1.3 posts per week.
Google indicates Paul, on a back of napkin calculation, as showing up in 4.76M citations or mentions. Of course, this can vary by accuracy or quality, but some are very good and his mark is clear. Homeland Security, repeatedly mentions Paul in the same breath as Dr Peter Wadhams, Michael C. Mann, James E. Hansen, Jason Box (regular and current private communication, with key intel, which has THE highest regard for Paul. He is stated as seen as among the best. You can bet your life on it).
On his twitter, Paul Beckwith has over 23,000 followers, and is an excellent and steady source of among THE best annectdotal information on climate. He dependibly posts regular updates.
Lastly, your donations revert to ALL of Paul’s work, and he makes it easy for you, to be able to quickly and conveniently obtain broad scientific climate information, in a way which is easy, cogent, and fast, as well as entertaining. He certainly works tirelessly hard. We thank all of you on behalf of Paul, his team, and supporters. All ofthis is because of YOU.
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With the annual sea ice minimum imminent (2nd lowest), some key points from this historic summer:
+ Only 2nd time total sea ice extent fell below 4 million km² + Unprecedented loss of sea ice along Siberian coast in July + All-time lowest sea ice extent in the Central Arctic pic.twitter.com/f7gu3kaQ9V
Extremely dangerous #medicane#Ianos will strike into Greece tonight into Friday morning. Ianos could become one of the strongest Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones on record! Destructive winds and life-threatening flash floods are expected.https://t.co/OHtld27mTM
HIGH RISK remains in effect tonight as #medicane#Ianos is nearing landfall in western Greece. A severe impact with destructive winds, major storm surge, torrential rainfall and flooding is expected:https://t.co/7VHuD0U8dB
Paul Beckwith: Post-doom with Michael Dowd // Sep 6, 2020
This conversation with climate systems scientist and abrupt climate change expert, Paul Beckwith, was recorded August 31, 2020.
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Most damaging atmospheric rivers 1978–2017
How Low Will the Big Arctic Ocean Slushy Go; We Will Find Out Very Soon… / Sep 8, 2020
In this third of a new series of Arctic sea ice demise videos I continue to chat about the demise of the big slushy in the Arctic Ocean. I discuss:
in detail the recent peer reviewed scientific papers on how Atlantic Water (dense, warmer water a couple hundred of meters below the sea ice) has moved to within 80 meters of the bottom of the sea ice in the Eastern Euro Basin,
and will likely keep the ocean from freezing up there in the winter.
The heat in their Atlantic Water is enough to completely melt out the entire Arctic Ocean ice three or four times over, as it eventually makes it near the surface over the entire basin.
This already happens in the Barents Sea region, and is spreading eastward into the rest of the Arctic.
I am also discussing how the so called “chimneys” where the Arctic Ocean water descends to complete the AMOC (Arctic Meridional Overturning Circulation), and how this process is being disrupted by Atlantification, thereby weakening the thermohaline process leading us closer to a complete shutoff and then redistribution of global ocean circulation patterns. 2020 is continuing to be full of unpleasant surprises for the teeming masses of humanity on Earth.
‘In March, soon after arriving aboard the Polarstern, a German icebreaker frozen into Arctic sea ice, Jennifer Hutchings watched as ice broke up around the ship, weeks earlier than expected. Even as scientists on the research cruise scrambled to keep field instruments from plunging into the ocean, Hutchings, who studies ice deformation at Oregon State University, Corvallis, couldn’t suppress a thrill at seeing the crack up, as if she had spotted a rare bird. “I got to observe firsthand what I studied,” she says.
‘Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are temporally ephemeral filamentary features in the lower troposphere that horizontally transport large quantities of water vapor (on average, more than double the flow of the Amazon River) and can cause extreme precipitation events on west coasts of major landmasses due to orographic lift over mountainous topography.’
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Holy crap! Some guy shouted “Machine learning is just statistics!” and then this happened pic.twitter.com/78VgmMmD5D
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Arctic Sea Ice Status: Going. Going. Soon to be Gone // Sep 3, 2020
In this first of a new series of videos I chat about Arctic Sea Ice. We are approaching the yearly minimum, and it is a toss up as to whether or not we will set a new record, beating out 2012 or be a close second. A huge difference is that in 2012 we had solid ice remaining, whereas this year we only have an ocean of slush remaining, with thickness essentially 30 cm or so (one foot).
In this video series I will discuss in detail the recent peer reviewed scientific papers on how Atlantic Water (dense, warmer water a couple hundred of meters below the sea ice) has moved within 80 meters of the bottom of the sea ice in the Eastern Euro Basin, and will likely keep the ocean from freezing up there in the winter. The heat in their Atlantic Water is enough to completely melt out the entire Arctic Ocean ice three or four times over, if it eventually makes it near the surface over the entire basin.
Although the melting season has not ended yet, 2020's #Arctic sea ice extent minimum has already dropped to the 2nd lowest on record in the JAXA data set!
This is only the 3rd time (2012, 2019, 2020) that the total sea ice extent has fallen below 4 million square kilometers. pic.twitter.com/Cetw6mVOUR
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Typhoon #Haishen is now literally exploding south of Japan and begins its rapid intensification phase! It is likely to become an extremely powerful Super typhoon over the next 48 hours. Haishen is expected to graze across western Japan on Sunday:https://t.co/D45sCWx55m
I decided to go to Death Valley in mid August (most inherently socially distanced vacay ever, promise) & got to experience the hottest day in history. WOOF. Read my @Sierra_Magazine essay about front-and-center inferno seats. #whatididonmysummervacationhttps://t.co/wHvsl4q0AH
“Scientists are to warn world leaders that increasing numbers of deadly new pandemics will afflict the planet if levels of deforestation and biodiversity loss continue at their current catastrophic rates.” https://t.co/AriBIwtOHi
Record High Greenland Ice Sheet Melt // Aug 25, 2020
Years with near record lows of Arctic sea-ice are often associated with a persistent jet stream ridge (blocking high) over Greenland. This means very low snowfall in the winter to build up the ice thickness, and very warm, cloud free summers to accelerate the Greenland ice sheet surface melting and discharge (comprised of calving of the ice shelves, and submarine loss melting from below where the warm ocean waters contact the lower ice surfaces). Greenland lost a record 532 GT of ice in 2019, surpassing the previous record melt year in 2012 (when sea ice set a record low) by 15%.
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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The air outside my window here in the Bay Area is the most polluted of anywhere in the world at the moment. Worse than Delhi and Beijing.
It's heartbreaking to even say this, but the current forecast is for a complete inundation by the ocean of the city of Lake Charles, Louisiana. An American city of 78,000 people.
This should be front page news for weeks. This city will never be the same. https://t.co/KguEpR6LsV
Imagine if a handful of trees were able to hog as much sunlight, rain, and soil for themselves as the lower 50% of all trees on the planet https://t.co/KxkOrM5eOt
— Peter Kalmus (climate scientist) (@ClimateHuman) August 27, 2020
Comparing Contemporary Abrupt Arctic Climate Change to Paleoclimate Dansgaard-Oeschger Oscillations // Aug 21, 2020
The ongoingrapid destruction of Arctic sea-ice is having profound effects on our overall climate system, and will soon likely reduce our ability to grow food. I chat on the latest science comparing our present day (contemporary) abrupt Arctic climate change to abrupt changes in past Arctic paleorecords captured in Greenland Ice Cores, namely rapid warming during the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) Oscillations.
Arctic warming over 1 degree C per decade is considered to be abrupt, and values 2.5x that occur in some regions now and in the past.
Ref: Past perspectives on the present era of abrupt Arctic climate change, Published: 29 July 2020. Jansen, Hesselbjerg Christensen, Dokken, Nisancioglu,
Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages, 714–721. 2020:
Abstract: ‘Abrupt climate change is a striking feature of many climate records, particularly the warming events in Greenland ice cores. These abrupt and high-amplitude events were tightly coupled to rapid sea-ice retreat in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, and observational evidence shows they had global repercussions. In the present-day Arctic, sea-ice loss is also key to ongoing warming.
‘This Perspective uses observations and climate models to place contemporary Arctic change into the context of past abrupt Greenland warmings. We find that warming rates similar to or higher than modern trends have only occurred during past abrupt glacial episodes. We argue that the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event, and that climate models underestimate this ongoing warming‘.
Abrupt Arctic Climate Change: Comparison of Today with Paleoclimate: Change Rates and Distribution // Aug 21, 2020
During the last glacial period from 120,000 to 11,000 years ago, there were over 20 abrupt periods of rapid warming (D-O Oscillations) exceeding 1 degree C per decade warming recorded in the North Greenland Ice Project (NGRIP) cores.
I continue to chat about the latest science comparing both the rates of change of warming as well as the spatial distribution of the warming between these D-O events and present day (contemporary) Arctic warming. In the paleoclimate D-O warming events, large Greenland ice sheet melting was preceded by extensive loss of Arctic sea ice; a pattern that we are expecting to experience again.
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California, once considered paradise: World record heat Record lightning strikes All residents told to park facing out of the driveway so they can vamoose "I'm a climate refugee," one man says–and he's righthttps://t.co/5WSmKfxDJh
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Amazon: profit up 100% Walmart: profit up 80% Target: profit up 80% Lowe's: profit up 74% Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Google: stock at record high
Small businesses: 21% closed; revenue for rest down 30%
We're seeing a monumental wealth transfer from mom & pops to conglomerates.
"Big Basin Redwoods State Park has burned through. These trees are between 800 and 1,500 years old. Some, older than Muhammad, had stood for a thousand years by the time Europeans set foot in North America. The youngest are older than the Black Death." https://t.co/Q0Gq2moMT4
An uptick in #Greenland ice sheet melting means an acceleration in sea level rise – and this is without the huge contributions we’re seeing from a melting #Antarcticahttps://t.co/vrmfUeyukn
Arctic Sea Ice Status Update, and a Tragedy in Greenland // Aug 14, 2020
We are 4-5 weeks away from our yearly Arctic Sea Ice mid-September minimum. I chat on present Arctic sea ice status and loss trends. Gone are days of thick, solid, contiguous ice. We now have a regime where sea ice is fractured, broken, thin, and easily jostled around by wind, ocean currents, and waves. Sensors measuring ice extent, area, and thickness struggle to provide accurate info in this new fractured regime.
I also discuss the extremely sad, tragic loss of Swiss glaciologis Konrad Steffen in a Greenland crevasse
Fractured, Thin, Broken Arctic Sea Ice Subject to Mercy of Wind, Waves, Ocean Currents, and Sun // Aug 14, 2020
The state of Arctic Sea Ice this 2020 summer is that of an ocean of ice cubes. The ice is very fractured, essentially broken up into small ice chunks and tossed around at the mercy of the wind and waves (and ocean currents).
The ice loss is occurring on many fronts. There is ongoing export from the Arctic Ocean via the Fram Strait, and through the Canadian archipelago. Melting from above is still intensive via solar radiation which is at about half the summer peak. Extremely warm water temperatures at the ice fringes and below the ice are also very significant.
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“We are hurtling towards the Blue Ocean Event (BOE) in the Arctic. Nobody knows for sure when it will happen. From my analysis, which I discuss in this video, my best guess is that the BOE will happen in 2022. After this BOE happens, then what will follow in subsequent years? I think that by BOE+2 years the Arctic Ocean will be ice free for August, September, and October. By BOE+4 years it will be ice free for 5 months, and by BOE+10 years the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice year round.” – Paul Beckwith, Climate Systems Scientist
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I know talking about climate tipping points seems be a no-no with some, but well…this is kinda a big one. https://t.co/7nZSwUluvb
The period 1July 2019 – 30June 2020 was the warmest 12 months ever recorded. Wildfires, floods, storms, droughts, melting permafrost, locust swarms, historic heatwaves. And now glaciers are literally collapsing in front of our eyes. When will we start treating this as a crisis? https://t.co/BPcWtpeYcK
On Thursday I, @Luisamneubauer, @AnunaDe and @adelaidecharli2 will have a 90 min meeting with chancellor Merkel in Berlin. We’ll discuss our open letter and European & global climate action, as Germany now holds the precidency of the European Council.#FaceTheClimateEmergency 1/2
Global Methane Budget: No “Methane Bomb” in the Arctic YET. Risk is RISING // Jul 27, 2020
The latest science on the Global Methane Budget was recently published in a landmark paper authored by over 70 multidisciplinary scientists. No methane bomb has ignited yet in the Arctic; for latitudes 60 to 90N methane emissions are 4 percent of the total budget as of 2017.
About 2/3 of methane emissions are from latitude 90S to 30N, mostly from tropical equatorial regions.
The remaining 1/3 of methane emissions are from latitude 30 to 60N. Atmospheric methane concentration is rapidly rising, mostly from 2 sources; namely from agriculture and fossil fuels.
Global Methane Budget: Rapid Atmospheric Methane Rise Mostly From Agriculture and Fossil Fuels // Jul 27, 2020
Recent papers on the Global Methane Budget are vital reading. Atmospheric methane concentration is rapidly rising from 2 main sources; namely agriculture (mostly livestock) and fossil fuels (mostly fracking).
Two basic approaches to study methane exist;
1) Bottom Up (BU) – individual gas sources are summed up to get total emissions, and
2) Top Down (TD) – satellite based sensors measure the atmospheric methane in columns of air and sum the individual readings to get a total.
Since the start of the industrial revolution in 1750 the cumulative methane forcing is about 25% of the total, which is dominated by CO2.
— Dr. Genevieve Guenther (@DoctorVive) July 26, 2020
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“Since the beginning of June this year, the floods have impacted more than 45 million people in 27 of China’s provinces, exacting an economic cost of more than 116 billion yuan ($16.5 billion).” https://t.co/ATPMpvrGIQ
— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) July 26, 2020
Exposed to a sick American bullfrog tadpole, a healthy tadpole will do its best to stay away. Garden ants and even lobsters also know to stay away when one of their own is sick.
Trump has sent more than 40 tweets in the last couple of hours- mostly to make his case for his failing fascist takeover of Portland. He has finally figured out his storm trooper gassing the suburban women he needs to win the election was not his best strategy.
Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 1 of 3 // Jul 17, 2020
Dr James E. Hansen is one of my climate heroes. He tried to tell the world about the grave threat of climate change by testifying to the US Congress in 1988 but nobody wanted to listen. Ten years ago he wrote the totally awesome book “Storms of my Grandchildren”.
He and his team diligently update numerous graphs on global energy, global temperature, solar activity, greenhouse gas levels and rates of change, ENSO cycles, global precipitation and drought, wind, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, sea level, Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet loss, butterflies, forcings, aerosols, and paleoclimate. Have I missed anything:)?
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions and Energy Use: Energy Consumption (last modified 2020/06/25).
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Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 2 of 3 // Jul 17, 2020
I continue chatting on James Hansen climate graph updates and key findings.
Global emissions continue rising,
exceeding 10 PgC/yr (Gt/yr), with the airborne fraction from 45 to 64%.
Atmospheric CO2 growth is about 2.5 ppm/yr (5-year mean) spiking over 3 ppm/yr some years.
Global surface temperature relative to 1880-1920 mean is 1.3C (add 0.3 for 1750 baseline).
Land surface temperature rise is about double that of sea surface temperature rise.
Northern Hemisphere warming anomaly is greatest in autumn, then winter, then spring and least in summer.
Siberia is gonzo.
Solar irradiance is at a minimum in sunspot cycle.
———- ——— Updating the Climate Science: Truth and Consequences: 3 of 3 // Jul 17, 2020
Global temperature in 2020 is exceeding the record set in powerful El Niño event 2015-2016, in spite of it not being another El Niño year.
Global precipitation mayhem results in torrential rains with huge floods in some regions and extreme droughts in other regions (both bad for crops).
Number of powerful Category 3 to 5 Atlantic hurricanes is trending upwards, as is number of top end tornadoes.
Wildfire average is increasing, correlated with temperature anomalies.
Sea level rise is accelerating, with Greenland and Antarctica ice mass loss rates doubling every 10 years.
Arctic sea ice is getting crushed like a bug.
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Here we go again…
Scorching hot within the Arctic circle next week.
Youl could stand in the heat and look over the Arctic ice. Oh wait, you can't. It has melted 2 months earlier than what would be considered normal in the 1980s.
— Scott From Scotland (@ScottDuncanWX) July 18, 2020
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Parts of #Arctic Siberia observed temperatures up to 8°C above average last month
— Christopher Cartwright (@chriscartw83) July 17, 2020
In this #Arctic sea ice graph we see 89 model runs from about 36 CMIP5 models under a high emission RCP8.5 scenario. Dotted line is 1 million sq. km. (virtually ice-free). Thick black line is observed. Thick red line is extrapolation trends from 1998 through 2012 record low. pic.twitter.com/AIQg7pIpad
Warm Weather Thunderstorms are Bizarrely Occurring in the High Arctic Near the North Pole // Jul 10, 2020
The Arctic has warmed so fast that warm weather thunderstorms now occur in the Arctic reaching a record latitude of 85 degrees North. Lightning has been detected within 500 km (300 miles) of the North Pole; some lightning is amazingly occurring directly over sea ice.
The height of the lowest part of the atmosphere (troposphere) is only 7 km high in the Arctic (17 km at equator; global average 11 km), and acts as an upper cap on heights of cumulonimbus storm clouds (anvil top is at tropopause). Clearly, the 7 km limit is not stopping these Arctic thunderstorms.
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At first guess I would have said coastal flooding… but he says it's from rain. The rain was torrential! https://t.co/vwvs5KGeJM
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OMG: “Fauci last saw Trump in person at the White House on June 2 — and says he has not briefed the president for at least two months.” #TrumpGenocidehttps://t.co/EVSlZZ5gFn
1/3 of Americans missed July housing payments, 1/5 made NO payment in first week. Apocalyptic evictions on the horizon, US political class is paralyzed, oligarchy getting richer by the day—while liberal media nomenklatura obsesses over cancel culture. https://t.co/qGeklg0jbm
A new "unknown pneumonia" that is potentially deadlier than the novel coronavirus has reportedly killed more than 1,700 people this year in the Central Asian country of Kazakhstan, according to a warning issued by Chinese officials https://t.co/w2ZZgprCxs
New UN Report on Electronic-Waste: e-waste: We think we can throw something AWAY. There is no AWAY // Jul 2, 2020
I was just on CTV News talking about major findings within a brand new UN report released today titled “Global e-waste Monitor 2020”, and I decided to make a video. Globally, in 2019, we dumped a record 53.6 million tons of e-waste, equal to the weight of 350 Queen Elizabeth 2 cruise ships.
Inside this waste was:
$57 Billion in platinum, gold, silver, copper and other high value components;
as well as many toxic substances such as mercury that are extremely harmful to human health and the environment.
This is unsustainable. We must do Cradle-to-Grave product design, and stop planned obsolescence of products.
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High Risk of Simultaneous Crop Failures in North America, Europe, and Asia From Stuck Jet Streams // Jul 3, 2020
With Abrupt Climate System Change, we are hit with worsening, severe, increasingly grave consequences. When the Jet StreamRossby Waves get stuck in persistent quasi-resonant locking patterns with wavenumbers 5 and 7 (i.e. 5 and 7 wavelengths: a ridge H and a trough L is one wavelength cycle) circumventing the planet then crucial agricultural regions in North America, Europe, and Asia have lower yields. This jet stream resonance with Earth (from topography and land-ocean temperature contrasts) causes simultaneous crop failures spiking food prices causing geopolitical conflict and mayhem.
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Editor (dk): We had promised awhile back, a very good friend of ours in climate work and alert, to share his work to Paul’s site, but failed to do so. We hope to remedy that, here. JimTanya Qually-McHenry who has been holding Climate Rallies weekly in Gettysburg Pennsylvania, of all places. They are outstanding. Besides having, and please forgive us if we recollect poorly, taught history in Public Schools, Jim is very lucid and on point. He has been tireless in his message. Besides that, he is an extraordinarily accomplished lifetime runner, with many top or winning finishes in Seniors in the Marathon, at the National Level.
His most recent video, came out today. You must view this, at Facebook: ‘Climate Change Emergency Protest #82‘: ‘The Arctic’, July 3, 2020 Gettysburg PA US
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California hosts the world’s oldest tree, the world’s tallest tree, and the world’s largest tree, when its forest cover is 17.8% of its territory (35th state in the U.S. per forest cover) https://t.co/byxxI4QBC3pic.twitter.com/o6d432dvd8
I was just on CTV News talking about major findings within a brand new UN report released today
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For years I have been saying that #Arctic temperature amplification is 3 to 5 times global average temperature. This justifies it…pic.twitter.com/KnnDM9ucjE
I trawled through the SAGE meeting minutes with a fine-tooth comb to find out what happened to the Government's decision-making as the #COVID19 crisis kicked off. What I found wasn't pretty. Here's my exclusive investigation via @BylineTimeshttps://t.co/edMeDgmEpA
Trump quietly canceled the rest of his campaign rallies yesterday. He’ll cancel the debates as well. In both, he would just embarrass himself, and he knows it. Until then, he’ll hide in the bunker while Americans are sick and dying, watching cable tv and tweeting crap. 124 days.
Just waiting for donny to tweet so I can play show and tell with him again today. I wonder how many times I can share this pic today? I shared a little last night, but now I have all day. @realDonaldTrumppic.twitter.com/ne5iaMumHC
My son Neil put him in the tree low down, and Shack wanted to go higher. Neil then took the photo, and climbed on a chair to get him down. He seemed to like it up there; he trusts us:) He is normally an indoor cat, but very adventurous!
I am training him to go backwards down a tree; cats cannot normally do that, and thus get stuck. The tree is like a one way street to them; up only… ———- ———-
Teaser: Global Food Supply at RISK from Simultaneous Crop Losses Due to Specific Jet Stream Patterns // Jun 29, 2020
I have perfect timing starting this video. My face is illuminated by lightning and then seconds later you hear the thunder. Pop Quiz: How far away was the lightning bolt? A while ago, Michael Mann and others published a paper on how jet streams tend to get amplified and stuck in a persistent, quasi-resonance with wavenumbers 6 to 8 (Ridge-Trough wave pattern repeats 6 to 8 times around the Earth) .
I introduce you now to a new paper that finds modes 5 and 7 can cause simultaneous crop reductions in vital farming areas in North America, Europe, and Russia. This is obviously a huge threat to our global food supply.
Ref: Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events, Mann, Rahmstorf, Kornhuber, Steinman, Miller & Coumou: Published: 27 March 2017:
‘Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide.’
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Punching Through the Front of a Storm as it Tracked from Ottawa to the US Border // Jun 29, 2020
Just for FUN; yesterday I spend 4 great hours in the car tracking a nice storm system from Ottawa southward to the US border, a distance of over 100 km (60 miles). There was no jet stream or wind shear to cause rotation, thus no tornadoes, however there was torrential rain with some hail.
My dashboard mounted camera picked up the action as I punched through the storm at the front side. You see beautiful skies, lots of rolling dark clouds and very detailed and majestic cloud structures that made my road trip a success.
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More Science on Jet Stream Rossby Wave Blocks and Consequences to Humanity and Our Societies // Jun 24, 2020
I continue to chat on blocking changes under climate change acceleration, and how the consequences are very bad for humanity and societies. The number of people directly affected by blocking is proportional to the size of the region under the ridge which has been found to be proportional in turn to the thickness of the jet stream times the wavelength of the Rossby Wave modified by a curvature factor of the wave. Wave resonances of the jet stream Rossby waves with the land-ocean contrasts and the topography of the Earth (orography) can result in simultaneous crop failures, as I discuss in further detail in some videos to follow.
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Persistent Quasi-Stationary Jet Stream Ridge Over Siberia a Perfect Example of Jet Stream Breakdown // Jun 23, 2020
As I explained previously, slowing, wavier jet streams (less West-to-East zonal winds; more North-to-South meridional winds) cause the likelihood of atmospheric blocks to be much greater.
The persistent quasi-stationary ridge in the Arctic over Siberia is extremely concerning, and will quickly accelerate degradation of Arctic Sea Ice, permafrost breakdown with associated methane emissions, and Greenland glacier melt with rapid sea level rise. I continue to chat about how blocking changes with rapid climate change acceleration, and how consequences of this change are very bad news for humanity and society.
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Extremely hot again on the fringe of the Arctic Ocean.
An astonishing + 34 °C has just been recorded at a latitude of 73 °N today in Russia. This is about + 20-25 °C warmer than normal.
Note how much open water there is compared to normal. Sea ice is taking a hit. pic.twitter.com/y0w5PLjkHx
— Scott From Scotland (@ScottDuncanWX) June 30, 2020
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"Now, more than ever, we need to think differently. But just as important as imagining a better world is putting the actual work in to build it. That may feel hard, but as Holthaus notes, 'the old world is dead—what comes next is up to us.'” https://t.co/6lC4MKR1Wa
— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) June 30, 2020
South Pole warming 3x faster than the rest of the globe, new study findshttps://t.co/N0VQAQTLDP
The south pole warming: "This was not well predicted by climate models, meaning we are further along when it comes to the destabilisation of ice sheets and the commitment to rising sea levels than we expected to be at this point," Quote @MichaelEMannhttps://t.co/DM3yXSSgqr
The South Pole warmed three times the global rate in last 30 years, worrying researchers if climate change was playing a bigger role than expected in Antarctica https://t.co/Ij32ZeXc5Gpic.twitter.com/EdqPUfauPT
The Five Main Jet Stream Blocking Configurations and Consequences of Abrupt Climate Change /Jun 22, 2020
With slowing, wavier jet streams (less zonal; more meridional waves) the likelihood of atmospheric blocks is much greater. As I explained from a boat in the middle of a lake in my recent CTV News interview, blocking explains Ottawa’s present heat wave and the unbelievable, unprecedented Siberian heat wave. I explain five main blocking configurations:
summer block (basic ridge);
omega block;
anti-cyclonic wave breaking block;
cyclonic wave breaking block; and
Rex block.
I chat about how blocking changes with rapid climate change acceleration, and how consequences of this change are bad news for humanity and society.
Ref: Blocking and its Response to Climate Change. Link to download of PDF, here. Woollings, Barriopedro, Methven, et al. Published: 20 July 2018
‘Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields‘.
———- ———- Jet Stream Fracturing and Blocking With Abrupt Climate Change // Jun 19, 2020
As the Arctic warms at faster rates, decreasing the temperature gradient to the equator, jet streams slow and become wavier in the North-South direction (aka meridional), making the likelihood of getting stuck for weeks on end in persistent patterns called blocks greater.
Westerly winds must reroute around these blocks, either to the north of them or to the south of them, or get stalled out completely. As the jet streams weaken and get more fractured, the temperature contrast between land and ocean gain influence, as does the topography (orography) of the land below (mountains versus flat regions). Complexity abounds.
Ref: Extreme Weather, 12 June 2020: Jet stream: Is climate change causing more ‘blocking’ weather events?
‘Key to this unseasonable weather are persistent high-pressure “blocking” weather systems, which bring clear, dry conditions on the ground below for many days or weeks.
Blocking events bat away oncoming low-pressure systems that would bring the prospect of clouds and rain. They are particularly synonymous with heatwaves and drought in summer and bitterly cold conditions in winter‘.
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How the Ribbon of Fast Moving High Altitude Air is Vital to Understanding Weather and Climate ///Jun 19, 2020
Understanding the jet streams is crucial for understanding weather patterns throughout the seasons. Understanding jet stream changes from year to year is crucial for understanding climate change. Essentially, the jet stream acts as a wall between cold, dry high latitude air at the poles and warm, humid lower latitude air. As the Arctic warms at ever faster rates, the jet streams slow and become much wavier in the North-South direction, making the likelihood of getting stuck for weeks on end in persistent patterns called blocks greater. However changes in the tropics are also very important to jet stream behaviour.
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“The emperors are naked. Every single one. It turns out our whole society is just one big nudist party.”
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The 6 warmest average January-May global temperatures have all occurred within the last 6 years…
The United States is in a covid cohort with five countries — Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico and Pakistan. It is about ten times richer than them. https://t.co/w19Jkq4VJe
— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) June 19, 2020
Former White House national security adviser John Bolton called President Donald Trump "naive and dangerous," in an interview that aired Sunday, adding that he hopes his former boss will be remembered as a one-term president. https://t.co/tt60E2kNVz
Jet Stream Change Driving and Responding to Abrupt Climate Change: Part 1 of Many // Jun 16, 2020
Throughout Earth history, physical changes in the jet stream (location, speed, waviness, width, etc.) have been vitally important for our weather and climate systems.
When a large quasi-stationary ridge forms west to east air flow and weather systems are blocked, causing extreme weather (heat waves; droughts under ridge; torrential rains; floods in adjacent troughs).
Climate models don’t agree on jet stream changes in the future as climate change rapidly accelerates.
In these videos, I discuss the overall picture of jet streams and then delve into the latest peer reviewed science on jet stream behavior.
Ref2: Jet Stream, A Journey Through our Changing Climate, Tim Woollings:
‘A fascinating introduction to the jet stream, providing insight into how it affects our weather, and how it relates to extreme weather events. Underlying science is built up as the story follows a weather balloon as it rides the jet stream around the world. An engaging blend of scientific writing and insightful historical and cultural contexts.
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🚨 Last month was the *warmest* May on record for our planet. Striking anomalies across northern Siberia again.
Discovering New Things In Your Hometown, For the
First Time, Even Though You Have Lived There Twenty
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This Vice article on degrowth is blowing up today. The Covid crisis has made unthinkable things thinkable… https://t.co/bRtGgjTCi6
Humans creating same conditions that led to Permian-Triassic extinction, also known as the Great Dying, took place 252 million years ago. It saw the loss of 90% of marine species, 70% land species, widespread loss of plant diversity extreme soil erosion. https://t.co/hXBZIw2tzspic.twitter.com/JnndnvMJQ0
Scientists have found that flushing a toilet can generate a cloud of aerosol droplets that rises nearly 3 feet and may linger in the air long enough to be inhaled by the next person to use the toilet https://t.co/GPyN35kVln
No Arctic Sea Ice in Aug and Sept for 2C Warming; July and Oct Sea Ice Vanishes at 2.5C: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 11, 2020
I continue studying the latest peer reviewed scientific studies on when we can expect the first Arctic Blue Ocean Event in September, and when adjacent months will become ice free. This video and the next are most important, must watch videos that converge to what I have been saying for many years. Here’s the bottom line; just the facts ma’am.
With 2C global mean temperature rise we expect August and September to be ice free.
With 2.5C we expect an ice free Arctic for July, August, September, and October.
———- ———- No Arctic Sea Ice in Aug and Sept for 2C Warming; July and Oct Sea Ice Vanishes at 2.5C: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 11, 2020
Following Part 1, we expect no Arctic Sea Ice in September when global average temperature reaches 1.7C above preindustrial.
August is ice free next at about the same time.
Next to fall is July, followed sequentially by October, June, November, May, December, and April.
Note July vanishing before October, then months fall out sequentially both sides (earlier month, than later month, etc.).
Finally, January sea ice, then February, and lastly March will vanish as we reach a year round ice free Arctic Ocean state.
———- ———- Effects of Aerosol Reductions on Arctic Temperature Rise and Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Part 1 of 2 // Jun 12, 2020
In previous videos I’ve discussed and estimated the global temperature rise from a reduction of worldwide aerosols due to global industrial slowdowns with our attempts to contain the Coronavirus.
Here, and in my next video I discuss huge temperature anomalies of 5 to 6 degrees C from January through May in Siberia, and
ongoing Arctic sea ice melt.
I ask whether there is a large influence from aerosol reductions in the Arctic, and examine two recent peer reviewed scientific papers that look at aerosol/sea ice connections.
———- ———- Effects of Aerosol Reductions on Arctic Temperature Rise and Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Loss: Part 2 of 2 // Jun 12, 2020
Here, and in my last video I ask whether there is a large aerosol reduction influence on rising Arctic temperatures, and thus on rapid Arctic sea ice melt losses.
Global aerosol reductions have occurred this year due to worldwide Coronavirus pandemic caused industrial shutdowns.
Ref: [1] ‘Globally, sulphur dioxide emissions, which lead to the formation of sulphate aerosols, peaked in the 1970s and have since declined by ∼15%. Correspondingly, there was a sharp increase in the burden of sulphate between 1950 and 1970; and since 1980, the burden has dropped. In contrast, black carbon emissions have increased throughout the twentieth century with a greater rate of increase between 1970 and 1990; the simulated global atmospheric burden of black carbon almost doubled during that time frame, but there is an indication of a decrease over the last decade‘.
[2] ‘Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover has been shrinking at an unprecedented rate since the 1970s. Even though the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been closely linked with the loss of Arctic sea ice, the role of atmospheric aerosols in past and future Arctic climate change remains elusive. Using a state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model, the authors assess the equilibrium responses of the Arctic sea ice to the different aerosol emission scenarios and investigate the pathways by which aerosols impose their influence in the Arctic.
‘These sensitivity experiments show that the impacts of aerosol perturbations on the pace of sea ice melt effectively modulate the ocean circulation and atmospheric feedbacks. Because of the contrasting evolutions of particulate pollution in the developed and developing countries since the 1970s, the opposite aerosol forcings from different midlatitude regions are nearly canceled out in the Arctic during the boreal summer, resulting in a muted aerosol effect on the recent sea ice changes.’
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Earth just had its warmest May on record, according to four separate analyses, and there's an increasing chance 2020 may be the planet's warmest year. https://t.co/M1vV5rwC2apic.twitter.com/COiC1BetdB
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) June 12, 2020
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⚠️We need to watch ICU capacity dropping in these hotspot states. Positivity is rising along with cases (which means it’s outstripping testing volume change). But ICU is a late indicator epidemic will reach former NYC epidemic levels soon. #COVID19pic.twitter.com/DShG87RUrj
#Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 2nd lowest on record (JAXA data).
• about 310,000 km² less the 2010s mean • about 960,000 km² less the 2000s mean • about 1,470,000 km² less the 1990s mean • about 1,900,000 km² less the 1980s mean
⚠️AIRBORNE is the “dominant” route for the coronavirus transmission! New PNAS paper by a Nobel laureate’s group concludes this based on study of several studies and how transmission wasn’t truly slow until mask rules went into place. MASKS FOR ALL, please. https://t.co/nmergxbW20
After First Arctic BOE (Loss of All September Sea Ice) then What Happens Next to the Sea Ice? 1 of 2 // Jun 9, 2020
Many years ago I discussed my thoughts on how Arctic sea ice loss would play out.
After the first Blue Ocean Event (BOE: less than 1 million square kilometres of ice left) with open water in September, I argued that within a few years of that BOE open water would occur for Aug, Sept, and Oct;
within a few more years July and Nov would then become ice free, and
within a decade the entire Arctic Ocean would be ice free.
Will we reach an Ice Free Arctic Ocean State Year Round or will some ice persist year round? 2 of 2 // Jun 9, 2020
In this second part of a two part video series, I continue to delve into an important paper called “Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons” to attempt to determine whether an initial Blue Ocean Event (BOE) will eventually lead to an ice free Arctic Ocean year round, or to an Arctic with no sea ice for about half the year.
The bottom line of this most recent research seems to indicate the latter case, at least for many years. However I still have the view that the cascading effects will lead to the ice free year round state within a decade or so of the initial BOE. No place on Earth is changing more than the Arctic.
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Temperatures within the Arctic Circle have hit an astonishing 30C this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/8XbebEdRsn
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The country is in a recession. #TrumpRecession The unemployment rate is higher than anytime since the Great Depression.
But the stock market is perfectly happy. Is there any more evidence needed that there's something fundamentally wrong with the way our economy works?
Amazon Rainforest whiplashing (flickering) between drought and flood: 2005: 100 year drought 2009: massive floods 2010: 100 year drought 2012: massive floods 2014: massive floods 2015-16: 100 year drought Many systems flicker before tipping. 1/2https://t.co/LJNz6y8c26
This drone footage shows a long line of voters waiting to cast ballots in Atlanta on Tuesday. Georgia election officials, poll workers and voters have reported major trouble with voting in Atlanta and elsewhere.
‘Sea ice plays a critical role in the Earth’s climate by regulating the exchanges of heat, momentum and moisture between the atmosphere and the polar oceans, and by redistributing salt within the ocean. Sea ice primarily exists in the polar regions, and throughout the observational record, at least 16 million km2 or about 5%, of the world’s oceans have been covered by sea ice at any one time. Because of its high reflectivity, sea ice reflects the majority of the sun’s radiation reaching the surface back to space, which efficiently cools the polar regions of our planet.
‘As sea ice melts at its surface, its surface albedo is lowered, which in turn increases the amount of the sun’s energy absorbed by the ice surface and further enhances ice melt. When the ice completely melts, this solar radiation is absorbed by the darker ocean surface, generating a positive feedback that amplifies Arctic air temperatures in autumn and winter as the ocean returns the heat gained in summer back to the atmosphere‘.
Arctic Sea Ice Loss Projections From the Latest-and-Greatest Climate Simulation Models (CMIP6) // Jun 3, 2020
The latest, most sophisticated climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) have been used to track Arctic Sea Ice Area and Volume over time and make future projections.
The vast majority of models predict a practically ice free Arctic in summer (less than 1 million km**2) before 2050.
September sea ice area decreases at a rate of 2.73 m**2 per ton of CO2 emissions,
and by 4 million km**2 per degree Celsius of average global warming.
Future cumulative CO2 emissions of between 500 to 1,100 Gt should finish the ice; with our present level of 40 Gt per year this is between 12.5 and 27.5 years.
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Cutting My Own Hair: Before. Notice, I am wearing a GARBAGE bag.
After ———- ———-
Our Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean: Part 1 of 3 // Jun 3, 2020
When will Arctic sea-ice vanish? In this 1st of 3 videos of findings from a review paper, I delve into details. Importantly, sea ice coverage loss (area and extent) have a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions.
There is roughly 3 square meters of September ice loss per ton of CO2 emissions;
or a loss of 4 million square km per degree C rise in global temperature;
or a cumulative emission amount of 800 Gt (20 years).
There is also an internal variability (chaotic) component of 1 million square km (or 300 Gt or 7.5 years).
Thus, no summer sea ice within 12.5 to 27.5 years. I expect sooner myself.
Abstract ‘Purpose of Review The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.
Recent Findings ‘The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 ◦C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO2 emissions must remain below 500 Gt.
Summary ‘The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced’. ———- ———-
I've kept talking about climate breakdown right through the pandemic and the riots and making connections and I'll keep doing so. It's all one great big ball of deadly injustice that needs unravelling.
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⚠️HUMIDITY and COVID: a study from Australia finds that 1%⬇️ in humidity may ⬆️ the number of COVID-19 cases by 6%. Consider humidity can easily swing by 50% day to day, such a drop could maybe yield a 300% increase in risk of #COVID19. pic.twitter.com/FRxjVhkDKu
I have never seen anything like this before. An entire section of Norway complete with houses, roads, trees, fields just slid into the ocean and disappeared…ground must have been completely saturated with water? https://t.co/r8ZElCzYN9
Abrupt Climate Change: Drought Projections in the Latest State-of-the-Art Climate Models (CMIP6) // May 28, 2020
I talk Drought. A new science paper uses the latest state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to determine which parts of our planet will experience the worst droughts as climate change rapidly accelerates.
Most people know of the greatly reduced precipitation drought (meteorological drought); but there are two other types.
Agricultural drought is from greatly reduced soil moisture, and
hydrological drought is from much greater runoff occurring.
Usually all three factors contribute in varying degrees, and drought severity has very strong regional and seasonal dependencies.
Ref: Overview CMIP6 Experimental Design and Organization. Download PDF of Summary, here. Clip: ‘Over the last decades significant progress has been made in model evaluation. The CMIP community has now reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently to enable a systematic and rapid performance assessment of the large number of models participating in CMIP.
‘Such an evaluation system will be implemented for CMIP6. Our initial goal is that two capabilities will be used to produce a broad characterization of CMIP DECK and historical simulations as soon as new CMIP6 model experiments are published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF):
At the WGCM meeting, it was decided that the results of these tools can be displayed on a public (rather than a password restricted) website‘.
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I Chat on Global Drought Maps: Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Runoff Changes Around the Planet // May 28, 2020
Second video: I talk Drought again. Watch above previous video first, where I give the background. Here I do a data delve (as opposed to a mind meld) on the drought maps. I cover
Surface Air Temperature, and
numerous world maps on Precipitation Changes, Soil Moisture Drying (at surface plus down into the soil), and
Runoff Increase expected around the planet in different regions, seasonally: Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb = DJF), Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA), and Fall (SON) and also annually.
Find your own region on the world maps (Zoom in on your computer) and see if you are in a water challenged hotspot; now or expected soon’.
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Ranting in the Rain on Climate, Coronavirus, Trump, Murders by Police, and Other Worsening Mayhem // May 29, 2020
I needed to rant tonight while walking through a torrential downpour in Ottawa tonight. Lots of utter crap and craziness is occurring around this week. The Coronavirus has not gone away despite actions of many, and we can expect many more severe waves.
Far northern Arctic heatwaves are unbelievable;
major Siberian cities slashed a previous record high of 12C (53.6F) reaching 25.4C (77.7F).
Zombie fires that smoldered under snow all winter reignited.
Parts of the US experienced incredible deluges knocking out dams, draining lakes inundating towns.
Trump is totally bonkers, and
cops (in the oft chance, English is your second language. dk: police) in the United States are murdering black folk.
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US CO2 emissions will fall off a cliff this year, down to below 1984 levels.
But perhaps even more interesting is that they are expected not to recover all that much in 2021, despite an assumed rapid recovery (with US GDP growing > 6% in 2021). pic.twitter.com/dYybmjqQnk
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Here he is again: blaming the environmental movement, not fossil fuel corporations, for the climate crisis. This is like saying the civil rights movement is responsible for ongoing racism. Or feminists are responsible for sexism. Utter nonsense.
And here's another recent essay I wrote with several decades of citations regarding Trump's sadistic pleasure in watching people die and profiting off destruction https://t.co/15fYlryxRJpic.twitter.com/EdrvzY0SCr
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Report: The Global Climate in 015 – 2019 // May 25, 2020
Recently the World Meteorological Organization published their 5 year update: “The Global Climate in 2015 – 2019”, comparing this period with the previous 5 year period and historical records.
Clearly, key climate change elements including
greenhouse gas levels,
atmospheric and ocean temperatures,
Greenland, Antarctica, and
alpine glacier ice mass loss,
heatwaves, droughts, wildfires and
extreme events including tropical cyclones, floods, tornadoes, etc are rapidly worsening.
I chat on the main findings of this report by focusing on the figures, both in this video and the next. Stay safe in our virus pandemic.
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World Meteorological Organization Report: The Global Climate in 2015 – 2019: Part 2 of 2 // May 25, 2020
Part two of two: continues where first video, left off.
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I give up. Those of us who lived through hell in NY are gonna have the watch the rest of you devolve into hot spots. https://t.co/gYB5kMlYng
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Can we link the record rainfall in Michigan, which is collapsing dams and leading to 'catastrophic' flooding, to climate change? Yes.
America’s billionaires saw their fortunes soar by $434B during the U.S. lockdown between mid-March and mid-May, new report finds. – @CNBChttps://t.co/Gfa1GCfGX7
Stratocumulus Cloud Deck Collapse and other Tipping Elements in the Climate System that Can Smush Us // May 12, 2020
Stratocumulous cloud decks cover lots of ocean and block sunlight providing some cooling offset to GHG warming. Typically these clouds are 1 km above ocean surfaces and are about 370 meters thick, and are sustained by long wave radiation cooling at their tops.
As CO2 concentration increases, convective circulation resupplying moisture to the clouds from ocean evaporation can be disrupted, leading to less long wave cooling cutting off the source of surface moisture, leading to disintegration of the clouds and abrupt, acute surface warming of up to 8 C.
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Mechanisms, Evidence, and Impacts of Climate Tipping Elements: Earth System Dynamics // May 12, 2020
A new review paper called “ESD Reviews: mechanisms, evidence, and impacts of climate tipping elements” was published online a few weeks ago and assessed the latest science on risks and impacts of various tipping elements. In the last video, here, and in the next video I chat about the risks of these tipping elements. The discussion includes the usual suspects:
Ref: ‘ESD Reviews: Mechanisms, Evidence, and Impacts of Climate Tipping Elements‘, Seaver Wang and Zeke Hausfather. The Breakthrough Institute, Oakland, USA, Received: 26 Mar, Accepted for review: 20 Apr, Discussion started: 21 Apr 2020.
Abstract: ‘Increasing attention is focusing upon climate tipping elements – large-scale earth systems anticipated to respond through positive feedbacks to anthropogenic climate change by shifting towards new long-term states. In some but not all cases, such changes could produce additional greenhouse gas emissions or radiative forcing that could compound global warming. Developing greater understanding of tipping elements is important for predicting future climate risks. Here we review mechanisms, predictions, impacts, and knowledge gaps associated with ten notable climate tipping elements.‘
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Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System // May 11, 2020
In 2007 Lenton et. al drew on results from experts at an international conference to identify “Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system”. They assessed the likelihood of thresholds being reached to trigger tipping, timescales of tipping and transition times, and consequences to the climate system and humanity.
Canada Geese and their chicks have hijacked my bike…
And, of course, the famed Shackleton
A new review paper published in the journal Earth System Dynamics assessed the latest scientific analysis on risks and impacts of the various tipping elements. Here, and in the next few videos I chat about the risks of these tipping elements.
Ref: ‘Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system.
Lenton Kriegler Hall Lucht, Rahmstorf, Schellnhuber, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Feb 12;105(6):1786-93.
Abstract: ‘The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point.
‘We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points‘.
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How Aerosol Driven Water Droplet Concentrations Control Low Level Cloud Coverage Affecting Climate // May 8, 2020
In a nutshell, with more aerosols (particles and non-water liquids) in the atmosphere, there are more cloud condensation nuclei so many more and smaller water droplets in clouds. Thus clouds are much more reflective of incoming sunlight, causing some cooling to partially offset GHG warming.
Smaller water droplets in clouds means that they rain less, become thicker, hold more water, cover a larger fraction of the sky and persist for a lot longer causing even more cooling offset. With global industrial shutdowns from our coronavirus responses, we have less aerosols in the skies, thus less of this cooling offset occurring.
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Science of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Vital to Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Models and Projections // May 7, 2020
In this video and the next I explain the basic science of
Direct aerosol effects (scattering; blocking sunlight) and
Indirect effects (smaller cloud droplets increasing reflectivity in the Twomey Effect, suppressing drizzle,
Increasing cloud heights and cloud lifetimes in the Albrecht Effect, and Heating Effects dissipating clouds).
Scientists can determine the number of droplets Nd and the vertical updraft velocity (Wb) at the base of Marine Stratospheric Clouds from satellite measurements, allowing determination of the number of Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) which is key to understanding aerosol and cloud climate interactions.
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Humanities Preferred “Climate Niche” is Shifting Away From Where Most of Us Live Now // May 5, 2020
Why do we live where we do? Many complex social reasons exist, but fundamentally most of us live in a “climate niche” with Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) 11 to 15 C (52 to 59 F), consistent for humanity over the last 6000 years. This will shift significantly over the next 50 years.
The mean human will experience a temperature rise of +7.5 C, which is about 2.3 times the mean global temperature rise.
Furthermore, without migration 3.5 billion people will be exposed to MAT’s greater than 29 C that cover 19% of global land area;
this MAT is presently only found on 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the Sahara Desert.
‘We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints.
‘We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.’
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What do you think about the Three UFO Videos Officially Released Recently by the Pentagon? // May 5, 2020
In this age of disruption both from abrupt climate change and exponential COVID-19 pandemic growth, we often need distractions. This is a very interesting and thought provoking diversion.
I elucidate my thoughts on three videos officially released by the Pentagon on “Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon” which the rest of us call UFOs.
I discuss the naval aviation footage and suggest explanations and chat about how we really need the military to release much more detail in order to reach an assessment.
I do think that there is almost certainly life out there in space; however can it contact us: see Drake equation?
Ref: Pentagon declassifies three UFO videos taken by Navy pilots.
TUE, APR 28 20206:32 AM ED, Natasha Turak. CNBC:
‘The declassification of the videos late Monday was meant to “clear up any misconceptions by the public on whether or not the footage that has been circulating was real,” the Pentagon said in a statement Monday.
The footage, which shows unidentified objects flying at high speeds in the Earth’s atmosphere along with audio of Navy pilots expressing shock and awe, was initially leaked in 2007 and 2017‘.
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Top Russian doctor falls out of 5th floor window during conference about lack of PPE for medics
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Could we all live OUTSIDE for a few weeks to SUPPRESS the Coronavirus Pandemic? // Apr 23, 2020
Last video I discussed extensive detailed results in a scientific study (link immediate below) looking at coronavirus virus transmission in over 7000 cases. There was only ONE case in which a person outdoors transmitted the virus to another person outdoors.
This is quite an amazing result, and needs to be studied carefully in further work. It obviously suggests that we may be safer outside, as long as we maintain social (physical) distancing. Does it mean that if the world moved outside for a few weeks to we could suppress the disease? Or perhaps if every window in every building was opened wide would maybe that be enough?
How the CORONAVIRUS is an INDOOR disease // Apr 22, 2020
I chat about recent scientific findings on coronavirus spreading being almost exclusively indoors. In the study, case reports and contact tracing were looked at in 320 municipalities in China, examining all outbreaks involving 3 or more cases; the major characteristics and indoor environmental issues associated with the enclosed spaces were studied.
The venues where the outbreaks occurred were in 6 main categories:
homes,
transport,
food,
entertainment,
shopping, and lastly
miscellaneous.
Only a SINGLE outbreak occurred OUTSIDE, and it involved only two cases!!!
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Why Coronavirus is so Contagious: It is like Wet Noodles that you Throw Against a Wall and Stick // Apr 21, 2020
Third in a new series of 4 videos (now 5) on my latest climate change and coronavirus musings. Topics:
Arctic polar vortex collapse spilling cold dry air south into US Deep South, clashing with warm humid air moving north from crazily warm Gulf of Mexico Sea-Surface Temperature anomaly 2.25 C, creating huge storms with tornado outbreaks, including a huge pair (2 mile wide; 1 mile wide) cutting up to 80 mile devastation swath.
5 C temperature anomaly over huge Eurasian region. Dimming?
Why coronavirus spread is huge; prion-like features and “wet-noodle” stickiness.
Large China contact tracing study on how spread is indoors, NOT outdoors.
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Not so Greatest but Latest on the Coronavirus and Abrupt Climate Change // Apr 20, 2020
Second in a series. Latest musings on climate and coronavirus.
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The coronavirus pandemic is shaking fundamental assumptions about U.S. exceptionalism. Seeing images of overwhelmed American hospital wards and snaking jobless lines, many are looking at the richest and most powerful nation in the world with disbelief. https://t.co/ouJB1JXKPv
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This is important. Until now the first US #COVID19 death was thought to be Feb 29th, Seattle WA https://t.co/ziFslDHShl But now autopsy (and @CDCgov) confirmation of 2 deaths in California Feb 6 and 17th. >3 weeks earlier than previously known. https://t.co/9hRGJp0QZg
“We are all interconnected,” primatologist Jane Goodall tells @NewsHour of the direct line between the global pandemic and humanity’s disregard for and mistreatment of nature. “And if we don’t get that lesson from this pandemic, then maybe we never will.” https://t.co/icKBmeUZj1
Logic 101: COVID-19 Spreading Characteristics: What We Know // Apr 15, 2020
Logic 101: Coronavirus Spread:
1) The virus can be spread by people who never develop any symptoms.
2) People that get sick may have no symptoms for two weeks.
3) People travel all around the world; can spread virus anywhere within a day or two.
4) Virus has exponential growth with high R0 value.
5) China locked down 50-70 million people starting Jan 23rd.
6) Given 1 to 5, obviously the virus will go global. What more did anyone need to know? Blaming China, WHO, a specific leader etc. now is counterproductive; we need global cooperation and sharing of the science to face our challenges.
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The Latest and Not so Greatest Musings on Abrupt Climate Change and Coronavirus Happenings // Apr 16, 2020
Arctic polar vortex collapse spilling cold dry air south into US Deep South, clashing with warm humid air moving north from crazily warm Gulf of Mexico Sea-Surface Temperature anomaly 2.25 C, creating huge storms with tornado outbreaks, including a huge pair (2 mile wide; 1 mile wide) cutting up to 80 mile devastation swath.
Huge 5 C temperature anomaly this year over huge Eurasian region.
Dimming? Why coronavirus spread is huge; prion-like features and “wet-noodle” stickiness.
Massive China contact tracing study on how spread is indoors, NOT outdoors. And more…
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The view from quarantine is deeply misleading—and falsely encouraging—about the state of the disease. (1/x) https://t.co/U9f9c7p2Ji
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My favorite moment at @NYGovCuomo’s briefing today wasn’t him telling Trump to get off the couch and ‘go to work,’ but his response to the president’s claim he wasn’t ‘grateful’ enough: ‘What am I supposed to do, send a bouquet of flowers?’ https://t.co/52X7l9VMUd
— Marlo #SocialDistancing Garnsworthy🌊❄️ (@MarloWordyBird) April 18, 2020
Our interdisciplinary study in @ScienceMagazine of nearly 1800 tropical coral reefs around the world identifies the coral reefs that can simultaneously meet select fisheries, biodiversity, and ecological function goals to varying degreeshttps://t.co/Gg1wvMWbMtpic.twitter.com/i0dFNO7WsU
Our latest paper on "Public Health Principles for a Phased Reopening During COVID-19: Guidance for Governors" with colleagues @cmyeaton@T_Inglesby and others https://t.co/GWXxKQcxWF
First Arctic Blue Ocean Event: What Computer Simulations and Statistical Trend Analysis Tells Us // Apr 6, 2020
In this video and the next, I continue my examination of Arctic sea ice data which gives us a clear picture of its present state and clearly shows the relentless downward trends in extent, thickness, and volume that allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about when it will vanish in a Blue Ocean Event (BOE). It is just a matter of time before the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking about? I give my own educated opinion (guess), and draw on some recent peer-reviewed scientific papers that attempt to narrow down the timing of the first BOE, from both computer modelling simulations and statistical trend analysis.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event: Timing Gleamed from Statistical Trend Analysis and Computer Simulations // Apr 6, 2020
Second video, continues from above.
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Horrifyingly Simple Math: USA Coronavirus Cases to Soon EXCEED Total of Cases in Rest of the WORLD // Apr 6, 2020
Instead of MAGA (Make America Great Again) the US leadership has MAGI (Make America Gravely ill). Ontario just released its virus mortality expectations of between 3,000 and 15,000 people, down from an expected 100,000 due to measures taken. We can do the opposite calculation with Trump (in a future video), and estimate the number of deaths in the US attributable to his denial, misinformation, and bungling.
But for this video, I compare :
a) the ratio of US cases to the rest of the world, and
b) the ratio of US cases to the world total.
As of April 5th a) was over 35% and b) was almost 26%. If trends continue; there will soon be more cases in the US then in the total rest of the world added up together. Horrifying, and completely avoidable with a competent leader.
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Sounds from a Million Ice Crystals Jiggling in the Waves: Frazil Ice on the Ottawa River in Spring // Apr 6, 2020
I found the Perfect Social (Physical) Distancing Spot on a Breakwater on the Ottawa River today: there isn’t a soul within many hundreds of meters of me; it’s just me and the Sun and the Waves and the River and the Fresh Spring Air. There is no better way to spend some time.
Steady Westerly Breeze generated waves have shredded many of the remaining remnants of river ice into tiny ice crystals (Frazil Ice), which create beautiful, somewhat eerie and haunting sounds as they collide into each other under the mechanical churning of the waves.
I cycled to this spot; only 26 km (16 miles) round trip today, a rest from my Saturday trip of 114.4 km (71.1 miles). Nothing beats great exercise for lifting ones spirits during this time of abrupt climate change and coronavirus pandemic.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a move in Canada as well for the CERB (Emergency Relief Benefit) to morph into a permanent universal guaranteed income. As has been pointed out, programs that get instituted in crisis times — income tax, EI— rarely get undone later. #cdnpolihttps://t.co/Mg7uYwwU6C
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#GreatBarrierReef research: First the north, then the middle, now widespread #coral bleaching including in the south. In just 5 years!
Nearly two dozen U.S. environmental rollbacks have gone into place under the cover of the coronavirus pandemic according to @WeAreDrilled tracker. This is the shock doctrine @NaomiAKlein warned about https://t.co/iCxbV4lnZ9
"We estimate that between 1-5% of the U.S. incarcerated population — 23,000 to 115,000 people — will require high-quality intensive care for #COVID19 in the next few months. Almost none of them will get that care; thus, most of them will die." https://t.co/LM2FqKB9rk
— Dr. Ayana Elizabeth Johnson (@ayanaeliza) April 7, 2020
The essential go-to website for near real-time plots on the Arctic sea-ice can be easily found by Googling “Arctic sea ice graphs”. Personally, I really appreciate the effort and expertise of Zach Labe who generates numerous graphs and animations that clearly show the rapidly decreasing trends in Arctic sea ice extent, thickness, and volume.
In this video and the next, I examine this data which gives us a clear picture of the present state of the Arctic and from the trends allows each of us to draw our own conclusions about the near term trends.
It is just a matter of time before the ice vanishes, but how much time are we talking?
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Coronavirus: What can you do and how can it end? From Alex Smith’s Radio Ecoshock, an interview from April 1, 2020.
A COLOSSAL BLUNDER HITS CANADA: PAUL BECKWITH
‘I called our regular scientist correspondent Paul Beckwith to discuss his three part-video on whether we can expect extreme heat events as the industrial shut-down lowers air pollution. I think that could happen.
‘It is important. But first – Paul blew me away by predicting Canada is not an oasis from the Corona pandemic developing just south of the border. He says Canadians made “colossal blunders” that could cost us dearly in weeks to come‘.
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“I wish it need not have happened in my time,” said Frodo. “So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” – J.R.R. Tolkien#COVIDー19#COVID19Pandemic
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In 2017 the military identified a novel influenza disease as "the most likely and significant threat" which it anticipated would lead to a shortage of ventilators, face masks and hospital beds, per Pentagon document leaked to me.
NEW: Two months before the novel coronavirus likely began spreading in Wuhan, the Trump administration ended a $200-million program aimed at detecting — well, novel coronaviruses. The staff had been working with the lab in — well, Wuhan. w/ @RaineyTimehttps://t.co/N9LsMS3eN3
Arctic Polar Vortex Shift from North Pole to Greenland: Large Ozone Hole and Sea-Ice Loss // Mar 28, 2020
I predicted 1.5 years ago that Arctic sea-ice loss will shift the jet stream center of rotation to Greenland’s center at 73 degrees N latitude. This shift essentially occurred, at least temporarily, about one week ago; the center of rotation of the polar vortex moved near the northern tip of Greenland.
The tight polar vortex with a cold upper atmosphere (recall as the surface warms the upper atmosphere cools) has created a large Arctic ozone hole, mentioned over a decade ago as an Arctic tipping point. With more air exchange from low to high latitudes, the Arctic sea ice peaked early (Mar 2) and has since been rapidly declining.
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Shackleton the Explorer Goes Nuts in Quarantine // Mar 28, 2020
In these dire times of coronavirus exponential growth and ongoing abrupt climate change, I hope that you are all coping as well as possible. Clearly, Shackleton the Explorer is letting off steam, and is wondering why his human family rarely leaves the house these days.
Me, I have been able to exercise so much lately that I am in the best shape I have been in for decades; for example I biked 25 kilometres (over 14 miles) and walked 10 kilometres (over 6 miles) today, and have lowered my resting heart rate from about 52 to 47 over the last month. I am also boosting my immune system with copious vegetables and vitamins and other stuff. Take care, and enjoy “Shacks” antics. Please share some of your own personal coping stories and inspiration in the comments section:)!!
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It was a very early maximum for Arctic sea ice this year. Around March 2nd…. https://t.co/pq4FVyd6Rn
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Trump's response to #COVID19 is already the greatest failure of leadership in American history, and he's only getting warmed up. https://t.co/5UBXsS8vU5
The huge decline in road traffic, air travel and other business activities across Europe during the coronavirus pandemic has led to sharp reductions in pollution over several major cities, new images published by the European Space Agency show https://t.co/nJcrRPbJ82pic.twitter.com/IeBhOnBY12
Another must-read piece by @JeffGoodell of @RollingStone, "Zero Hour: There’s No Stopping Climate Change, But How Bad It Gets Is Still Up To Us: It is more important than ever that we eliminate fossil fuels and reduce suffering in a warming world" https://t.co/iAbHadSAKQ
Want to see the true potential impact of ignoring social distancing? Through a partnership with @xmodesocial, we analyzed secondary locations of anonymized mobile devices that were active at a single Ft. Lauderdale beach during spring break. This is where they went across the US: pic.twitter.com/3A3ePn9Vin
Magnitude of Global Dimming from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 1 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020
Global Dimming from industrial and transportation aerosols is likely between 0.25C and 1.1C with a best estimate of 0.5C. As global industry/transportation shutters due to our coronavirus actions, the sky clears due to reduced pollution, unmasking global dimming.
My educated best guess on the size of the direct effect warming pulse is 0.25C globally if half of industry shuts down, realized as a 0.5C warning over land and 0.125C warming over the oceans. Maybe double these numbers with indirect effects from cloud changes. Also, daily temperature range will increase, specifically due to shutdown of the airline industry.
Amount of Global Dimming Expected from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 2 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020
Continues where last video, left off.
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Warming we can expect from Global Dimming reduction due to Coronavirus Industrial Shutdowns: 3 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020
Continues where second video, left off. Video three of three.
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A simple expression of why physical distancing is crucial & urgent & will help you & your loved ones & the loved ones of your loved ones, etc – AND lift the load on our medical pros. Share, repost, republish; it's creative commons. 🙏 @SiouxsieW & @XTOTLhttps://t.co/cfXuXp8fy2pic.twitter.com/Aw2PPTowSH
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I don't want anyone to forget that two months ago the US was stridently criticizing the containment measures China was taking.
We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why the most extensive travel restrictions in human history haven’t been enough to stop the coronavirus outbreak https://t.co/7wGK5vx0tY
A simple expression of why physical distancing is crucial & urgent & will help you & your loved ones & the loved ones of your loved ones, etc – AND lift the load on our medical pros. Share, repost, republish; it's creative commons. 🙏 @SiouxsieW & @XTOTLhttps://t.co/cfXuXp8fy2pic.twitter.com/Aw2PPTowSH
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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I don't want anyone to forget that two months ago the US was stridently criticizing the containment measures China was taking.
We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why the most extensive travel restrictions in human history haven’t been enough to stop the coronavirus outbreak https://t.co/7wGK5vx0tY
Modelling the Coming Coronavirus Tsunami: Imperial College Paper // Mar 18, 2020
This new paper from Imperial College models the expected number of cases of coronavirus and the total number of deaths that we would expect in both the UK (Great Britain) and in the USA.
The modelling starts with a worst case scenario of no interventions, and projects total deaths of 510,000 in the UK (peaking early June) and 2.2 million in the USA (peaking late June) with a caveat: these are direct deaths, not accounting for spillover effects to other critical care patients without the virus).
It then models the effects of so-called Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to shift the curve to a later date, and lower the peak. These include shutting schools and universities, social distancing, self-isolation, quarantines, to shutting cities and countries.
Ref: ‘Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand‘. 16 March 2020, Link to 20 page article, here. here.
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Will the Coronavirus Pandemic Weaken in the Northern Hemisphere as we move into Summer? // Mar 17, 2020
I discuss a new scientific paper that examines the present coronavirus spread and shows correlations of the hardest hit regions to temperature and humidity changes with latitude. This is only one paper, but it seems to indicate that the hardest hit regions are within an average temperature band from 5C to 11C, with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/cm3). If this is confirmed in subsequent scientific studies then it could indicate that Covid-19 is a seasonal respiratory virus. Promising (since it would slow down in summer); but too early to tell for sure at the moment.
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History of Pandemics; Will Covid-19 Slow Down in Summer? // Mar 17, 2020
Throughout human history, as we spread across the world we have had infectious diseases as a constant companion. Outbreaks continue to happen, even more frequently in our modern era.
First, I discuss a timeline over the last 2000 years and chat about some of histories most deadly pandemics, including the biggies such as Black Death (Bubonic Plague); with 200 million dead (30-50% of Europe); smallpox killing 90% of Native Americans, and the Spanish flu.
Next I discuss what we know about seasonal cycles of many infectious diseases, and then some recent papers considering whether Covid-19 may be seasonal, perhaps weakening as we head to Northern Hemisphere summer.
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Temperature anomalies we’re off the chart for Dec-Jan-Feb 2030. Look at these numbers, with 1951-1980 baseline. Add 0.3C to convert to 1880-1910 baseline, add another 0.3C to convert to 1750 baseline. That’s 1.78C warmer than 1970. #ClimateEmergency#ClimateChangepic.twitter.com/XffumLkkQi
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 1 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020
On March 10th a vitally important article was published online by Tomas Pueyo, and I chat about it in this video and my next two. Even if you do not understand it all, or my chat about it, please forward it to your politicians, community leaders and business leaders.
It can save a large number of lives, but action needs to be taken immediately. I can not stress this enough. The most important concept discussed is determining the true number of cases from the diagnosed number of cases, and the vital importance of social isolation in your community.
Ref: ‘Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now‘, by Tomas Pueyo. Link to excellent article, at Medium.com, Mar 10, 2020.
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 2 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020
Continues, first video above.
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 3 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020
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Maybe we should all start wearing soap-on-a-rope around our necks?
This is huge: Ohio Health Dept. Director Amy Acton is saying that evidence of community spread indicates that 1% of Ohioans are currently carrying coronavirus. That's *117,000* people.
Wow — dean of University of Washington medical school is asking qualified graduate students to pause their research and instead help run COVID-19 lab tests.
Chat on Hard-Hitting New Report: “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change”: 1 of 2 // Mar 7, 2020
A new report called “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change” came out last month, produced by a National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change, within The Center for Climate and Security.
I discuss the key points for each of the two warming scenarios:
in the near term with 1-2 C of warming, and
in the medium-long term with 2-4+ C of warming. Impact threats to society are already very high, and soon to be catastrophic, according to this hard-hitting report.
Ref: ‘A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HOW LIKELY WARMING SCENARIOS INDICATE A CATASTROPHIC SECURITY FUTURE‘: click here, to download full 86 page file, or read only format off of web, here. From February 2020.
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A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change; also Coronavirus Growth Rates: Part 2 of 2 // Mar 7, 2020
I continue my chat on the dire report: A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change. I then discuss how China went from 278 cases of COVID-19 to 80,000 cases in 45 days.
If USA growth rates are similar, 401 cases today would grow to about 80,000 cases by April 21st. Growth rates in different countries can be similarly estimated, allowing you to project and prepare for what will likely happen; much variation between different countries depends on resources and actions. Some epidemiologists think 20-60% of the global population will be infected.
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I’ve been following you and @PaulHBeckwith and @Guy_McPherson for YEARS!!! I believe everything you say. I know about the climate. WE HAVE TO STOP POLITICIZING IT OR WE WILL NEVER FIX IT.
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Striking satellite images… Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China https://t.co/jnjfH7MQ5v
Coronavirus Effect on Global Warming and Global Warming Impact on Pandemic Risks: Part 1 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020
The Coronavirus has shuttered about 25% of Chinese industrial production for weeks on end. Since Chinese production and industrial activist accounts for about 1/4 of global production, 1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16 or about 6% of global production has been halted. Thus, my back of the envelope best guess has global CO2 emissions down about 6%, and globally produced aerosols down about 6% as well.
Since global dimming from aerosols is thought to be between 0.25 to 1.1 C, if we take the 1 C number as an upper limit, then the Coronavirus has resulted in global warming of about 0.06 C; with regional warming over China of about 0.25 C.
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Coronavirus and Climate Change: Intimate Connections: Part 2 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020
It is well known that as our planet rapidly warms, there are more disease vectors that affect human health. Diseases such as Zika Virus, West Nile Disease, Ebola, Malaria, etc. propagate faster and more severely in warmer regions.
Looking at history, when Europeans went to warmer lands of long established civilizations (Incas, Aztecs, and Mayans) it was their diseases that wiped out these Indigenous populations. Immune systems of higher latitude nations (Europeans) were stronger than those of people in lower latitude regions, the latter had no immunity to diseases the invaders inadvertently brought in.
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Habitat Stress Forcing Poleward Animal Migration Increases Risk of New Virus Generation: Part 3 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020
It is thought that the coronavirus originated in Wuhan’s wild animal market, perhaps moving first from bats to a small mammal and then to humans. We know that as the globe rapidly warms, many animal species are forced to migrate towards the poles in search of more optimal habitats as their existing regions become too warm and dry to continue to sustain them.
This migration causes these animals to interact more with other species, and become more stressed, weakening their immune systems and increasing the probability of them becoming virus carriers and propagators.
Skating with the Wolves (and Ranting about Climate Coronavirus Connections) // Mar 1, 2020
Nothing beats an early morning vigorous skate through the Quebec snow covered forests with the wolves. The ice was perfectly flat and nearly pristine along this 3 km loop in the woods at Lac-des-Loups, and the path was almost deserted. Essentially, this was the perfect place for me to film a rant video while skating, to summarize some of the key connections between abrupt climate system change and the Coronavirus, and vice-versa.
It is very clear to me that climate change increases the risk of viral and bacterial disease outbreaks around the planet, and when these outbreaks are large enough to become global pandemics they significantly affect climate. If you like my videos, please donate at http://paulbeckwith.net and Thanks for Watching!!
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Skating Seven Miles Through the Beautiful Winter Forest in Lac-des-Loups (Lake of Wolves) Quebec!) // Mar 1, 2020
Last video focused on the connections between abrupt climate system change and the connections to the coronavirus. Some people rightly complained that as I skated in a beautiful forest landscape in Quebec they just saw my face and not enough of the scenery; this video is for those people.
Here I focus on the skating path and the wonderful snow laden trees bordering the path as I navigate through the forest. As I post this video, I am resting from my hour long skate covering over 7 miles (12 km), which is 4 complete loops) through the forest , according to my Garmin Fenix watch, which tells me everything about my body; in fact more than anybody would ever want to know!!
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Not only did @realDonaldTrump inherit a growing economy’; he also inherited a fully staffed and competent pandemic response team…
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For the first time in recorded history, there will be no measurable rainfall in San Francisco in the month of February.
My husband attended question period this week. Reported that @MacLeodLisa spent 90% of the time doing sudoku in plain sight of the gallery. She earns a six figure salary to play sudoku while education, autism and adult services are in crisis. And yet teachers are a problem ?
Coronavirus is primarily spread from respiratory droplets to the nose and mouth, not through contact with contaminated objects. Thus, your incessant promotion of hand-washing is unscientific and leads people to a false sense of security. https://t.co/v7QcM1Vgxl
Clearly, the money and power in society is pushing us at ever faster rates towards a barren Earth…
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Forward J.P.Morgan’s report: “Risky business: The Climate and the Macroeconomy” to Climate Deniers // Feb 24, 2020
I continue to chat about the J.P.Morgan Special Report, referenced above.
It is one thing for a tree-hugger or climate scientist to talk about our impending climate catastrophe, but another thing entirely for the largest investment bank funding fossil fuels to report using these dire terms.
Thus, I highly recommend you forward this video and link to politicians and your climate denier friends.
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I think the bottom line on @Chase's climate announcements today is: a couple of decades late, and about $196 billion dollars short.https://t.co/bYwZQdYiSA
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'Buying an old and leaky pipeline in order to take over a private sector project that had hit the rocks was hardly smart. But overpaying for it to the extent that the Liberals did was an act of political desperation,' writes @ElizabethMayhttps://t.co/GlOSpaJyGn
Moderators: What's your favorite quote that represents you? Bernie: We are in a planetary emergency and only a radical, sustained, transformative overhaul of every aspect of society will bring about a florishing era on the only place in the known universe that harbors life
West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Expected to Greatly Accelerate as Southern Ocean Warms: Part 1 of 3 // Feb 19, 2020
An island off the northernmost tip of Antarctica reached a record breaking temperature of 20.75 C (69.35 F) for the first time, after setting a record the previous week of 18.3 C (65 F), besting the previous record of 17.5 C (63.5 F) in March 2015.
How Southern Ocean Warming Drives Substantial Ice Mass Loss from Antarctica; Part 2 of 3 // Feb 20, 2020
I continue to discuss a new paper that examines:
how southern ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica early in the last interglacial period (129 to 116 thousand years ago),
and the implications of this today.
Back then, with warmer polar temperatures, global mean sea level was +6 to 9 m (roughly 20 to 30 feet) higher than today. With Greenland ice sheet melt contributing about 2 m, and ocean thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers contributing about 1 m; that means Antarctica would have contributed between 3 to 6 m, mostly from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).
How close are Southern Ocean Temperatures to a West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Point? Part 3 of 3 // Feb 20, 2020
I continue chatting on the new paper examining how southern ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica early in the last interglacial period (129 to 116 thousand years ago), and the implications for us today of accelerated melt and sea level rise.
According to the paper, an early last-interglacial warning of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) of 1.6 C relative to present day occurred; meanwhile SST temperatures bracketing coastlines of the most vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) increased as much as 1 C between 1981 and 2010. Not good; we may be very close to a tipping point.
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Here's a great, very human and inspiring video from scientist @PaulHBeckwith.
'I don't have a lot of hope, but things aren't hopeless either…You have compassion for people and you try to make a difference' https://t.co/DJLr43JIUC
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The greatest "Arctic Amplification" is found in the boreal fall. As sea ice begins refreezing, heat is released back into the overlying atmosphere. This energy transfer has been enhanced by the recent reductions in sea ice cover. Data using @BerkeleyEarth from 1900 to 2019. pic.twitter.com/vZk6a1pWRy
here's the best response to Jeff Bezos' new Earth Fund. @AMZNforClimate is one of the truly effective groups of workers on the planet–pay attention to them! https://t.co/0pDNw7QFos
If this study is confirmed by many others, then between 1955 and 2005 about half of the surface warming in the Arctic, and about half of the Arctic sea-ice extent loss was actually due to the GHG (Green House Gases) effect from ODS (Ozone Depleting Substances), and not due to ozone changes.
After stabilizing for many years after the 1987 Montreal Protocol, the ODS CFC-11 (trichlorofluoromethane has been rising since 2013 or so from illicit production in China, according a separate paper. Our societies cannot afford to let these trace, long lived, huge GWP (Global Warming Potential) gases to rise in concentration in our atmosphere.
That’s eight new videos, so that your job to take in a markedly wide view on weather and climate, is THAT much easier. Donations to Paul, were and are, continue to be appreciated. PayPal account is not required, just normal credit card.
'Ignored and trivialized': Experts warned Australian government before catastrophic blazes
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An older couple started talking to me in the park. They asked me where I went to school and what I did.
Want to be shouted at for 20 minutes? Tell them you studied weather and climate at Harvard and work at The Washington Post.
Beckwith’s Live Mainstream National Media (CTV TV and CBC TV) Interviews: Aussie Wildfires: 2 of 3 // Feb 2, 2020
Back in September, 2019 (oh so long ago, in abrupt climate system change time) I did a video on the record setting Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) over Antarctica and explained how it would deflect the jet streams (and this rain bearing storms) away from Australia in their summer (Canada’s northern hemisphere winter).
The rest is history, as they say.
Australia has been hit by extreme heat and dryness, and thus ongoing apocalyptic wildfires.
As the SSW subsided, heavy rain and golf-ball” sized hailstorms hit,
Then back to drought and massive dust storms.
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Beckwith’s Interviews Live On-Air with Canada’s National TV Broadcasters: Aussie Wildfires: 3 of 3 // Feb 2, 2020
Over the last month I have had six or seven on-air TV interviews with Canada’s largest private broadcaster (CTV News) and another with Canada’s largest public broadcasters (CBC News). In this final video of my three part video series I continue to play the recorded TV news clips, and discuss:
The keystone role that abrupt climate system change has in driving Australia’s catastrophic wildfires.
I also discuss the jaw-dropping ineptitude of governments to respond to our ongoing climate casino reality.
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Ice Carving Competition at Ottawa’s Yearly WinterLude Festival (soon to be WaterLude?).
Bench is made of ice (I was on the cold seat!)
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January 2020 so far..
US vs. Iran WW3 Threat Australia Bushfire Indonesia Flood Philippines "Taal Volcano" Eruption Corona Virus in China Earthquake in Turkey & Puerto Rico Sudden Death of Kobe Bryant Afghanistan Plane Crash
— #UaapSeason82 Womens Volleyball (@phvolleyballs) January 29, 2020
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Earth's rising global temperature and its associated interannual variability…
This variability, for example, can be influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (bottom graph – Niño3.4 index) and/or volcanic eruptions (green triangles). Graph by https://t.co/lTiRZOPa7Z. pic.twitter.com/wdoqjrqqFb
“The keywords ‘climate action’ and ‘climate emergency’ were generally not searched for in the past, but their use increased 20-fold in 2019.” https://t.co/imvlnLz9Kr
We got 20-30 cm of snow; eastern Newfoundland received almost a meter of snow; snowfall rates of 10 cm per hour; winds up to 157 km/h (Cat. 2 hurricane wind equivalent).
The Sudden Stratospheric Warming that switched on in September just switched off, so jet streams could bring moisture and rainfall over Australia to put out fires.
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#Copenhagen is planting fruit trees in streets so everyone can enjoy fresh fruit. In #Ottawa, fruit #trees are being planted to support local food banks. #Adelaide is considering a similar plan to help the homeless.
The #Panama Canal is running out of water Temperature increases have led to a rise in evaporation from the reservoirs that supply the canal. Authorities are having to take action to keep the supply route running smoothly.#ClimateChange@GeraldKutneyhttps://t.co/GxR5tSOuuR
How Arctic Ocean Blue Ocean State Will Crush Humanity Like a Bug: Part 1 of 3 // Jan 10, 2020
In my previous two videos I discussed how the reflectivity of the Arctic region reduced from 52% to 48% between 1979 and 2011, with global average warning 0.21 W/m2 (1/4 that of CO2).
Now I explain the newest science from 2019 on how a Blue-Ocean State (zero Arctic sea ice) in summer would heat the overall planet 0.71 W/m2 with expected cloud invariance (or 2.24 W/m2 with clear skies, or 0.37 W/m2 if overcast). This equals 1 trillion tons of CO2 or 25 years of warming. i.e. global food shortage chaos.
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Another TV interview from Monday the 6th: I chatted earlier today on CTVNews about the horrible fires, and we covered impacts to First Nations people.
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Here on Extinction Radio again, Episode 102 – 10th December 2019 – Paul Beckwith live from CoP 25 in Madrid. The interview with founder and creator, Mike Ferrigan, has downloadable versions in both video and audio for this episode.
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I somehow got hold of this: a current internal list detailing how the climate and bushfire crisis is impacting fresh produce supply, from the fruit and veg section of a major nation-wide supermarket. #ClimateCrisispic.twitter.com/cbedPcMiB3
“Murdoch empire has gone all-out on disinformation, trying to place the blame on arsonists and “greenies” who won’t let fire services get rid of enough trees
"A trio of recent deals tells us something important: that 2020 may be the year when climate-risk analysis moves into the mainstream. Investors have begun to realise that it can be more costly to ignore these issues than to grapple with them." https://t.co/UUx2WwJZdm
Arctic Sea-Ice Loss and Literal Darkening of the Arctic Causing Warming Amplification: Part 1 of 2 // Jan 7, 2020
I am back after my much needed holiday break. I am chomping at the bit and ready to go. Here I discuss how the Arctic region (from 80 to 90 degrees N) albedo (reflectivity) declined from reflecting 52% of sunlight in 1979 to reflecting only 48% of the sunlight in 2011. This decline occurred mostly in regions where the Arctic sea ice melted out, and was not compensated by cloud cover since the latter did not increase significantly. Arctic temperatures thus increased by 3x the global average.
Darkening Arctic with Loss of Sea-Ice and Snow Cover, Consequences of Blue-Ocean State: Part 2 of 2 // Jan 7, 2020
How much Arctic darkening will occur with an ice-free Arctic Ocean (Blue-Ocean State)? How much more warming will occur? To get a handle on the answers I continue to delve into the scientific literature. According to a recent paper, the annually-averaged Arctic Ocean planetary albedo under ice-free and cloud-free conditions would be 14% over the region. Compare this to the estimated cloud-free albedo of 39% in 1979. The Arctic is becoming a much Darker place; cloud growth does not compensate for ice loss.
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Very cool of @theAGU@AGU_Eos to run my commentary "Australia, Your Country Is Burning—Dangerous Climate Change Is Here With You Now": https://t.co/Gz3OTTutMp
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Support For Proportional Representation (By Province):
0.5°C safety 1.3°C irreversible feedbacks (now) 1.5°C severe danger 2°C extreme danger 2.5°C approaching hell 3°C horror 3.5°C death of organised society 4°C human survival in doubt 5°C extinction possible 6°C extinction likely 7°C current trajectory
I saw that happening in the last days. Revolting! „Australia suddenly appears to be getting swamped by mis/disinformation as a result of this environmental catastrophe.“ https://t.co/XZvc4x5dyk
Here Paul is again interviewed by Metta Spencer. Previously, Paul was on her show, on 14 October, as shared here, proximate to the Young Turks. As she says: ‘Canadian climatologist Paul Beckwith attended the COP 25 meeting in Madrid that ended in a stalemate. He and Metta agree that there is too little progressbyelected government officials, and they consider ways of speeding up responses to the emergency. Beckwith favors sprinkling iron in oceans to encourage plankton and feeding CO2 to limestone.’
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New CTV national TV news clip, from 12 noon yesterday. Click link here. ———- ———-
The Dark Edges Of Climate Change:
I chat on EcoShock Radio with the great Alex Smith about climate restoration while I was at COP25 in Madrid Spain. This is from 18 Dec, after Paul got back (dk).
‘Paul Beckwith Reporting From COP25 Climate Conference In Madrid‘:
‘The world’s largest climate meeting wrapped up in Madrid. It is called The Conference of the Parties. This was COP25. There were no headlines other than world leaders again agreed to let Earth slip farther into climate disaster. Radio Ecoshock had our own observers on site, including regular guest Paul Beckwith. Paul is a genuine climate scientist who often teaches at the University of Ottawa. Now he is also Professor to the World with his in-depth series of climate videos on You tube.
‘Outside the COP25 climate conference in Madrid’s December, climate activists gathered to call for real action. But a small number of experts claim we can “restore” the climate with technology. Canadian scientist Paul Beckwith is tracking that web of small foundations and micro-investors pushing everything from carbon-capturing concrete to fertilizing ocean plankton. All that becomes more desperate as yet another gathering of world leaders abandons the future to stalling and words‘.
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Peter Lougheed warned YEARS AGO that poorly managed development of Albertan tar sands without consideration for the environment and the boom bust cycle affecting jobs and the economy would create huge divisions in Canada. Weak, dishonest leaders blame it on a Trudeau. #cdnpolipic.twitter.com/3xCMxsogye
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Total #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the 6th lowest on record (JAXA data)
Compared to previous decades: • about 430,000 km² less the 2000s mean • about 990,000 km² less the 1990s mean • about 1,330,000 km² less the 1980s mean Additional plots: https://t.co/FUU9OSP7nfpic.twitter.com/I8ZOQlbyq4
Why is it, that out of all the Sciences (eg, Histology, Aeronautics, Cosmology, etc), the only Science subjected to massive and very well funded Denialist Disinformation is Climatology? “Qui Bono” = “Who Benefits” may be relevant? https://t.co/2WA9m6kRZ3
The President of the United States spent last night amplifying far right accounts, disinformation, memes, and videos to millions of online followers across the world.
This is not how the leader of the free world should behave. This is not normal. This is not ok.
Wadhams, Carter, Beckwith, Valdez chat on our DIRE Climate Emergency, and on what WE Must Do: 1 of 2 // Dec 22, 2019
In the late afternoon of Friday Dec.13th at COP25 in Madrid Spain, Dr. Peter Wadhams, Dr, Peter Carter, myself (Paul Beckwith), and Regina Valdez chat on our dire, ongoing climate emergency, and about what we need to do to extricate ourselves from the crisis and ensure future survival on Earth. Whether or not humanity will be successful is not the issue; we have no option but to do what is necessary to survive with our planetary resources and human ingenuity, for as long as we can.
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Wadhams, Carter, Beckwith, Valdez chat on our DIRE Climate Emergency, and on what WE Must Do: 2 of 2 // Dec 22, 2019
Second of two videos, continues where first video left off.
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Back in Canada after the COP25. A winter wonderland… ———- ———-
The ring of fire around Sydney is as angry and as frightening as we've seen. 20,000 people are tonight in the path of the mega fire rolling down the Blue Mountains into the town of Lithgow. #9News | https://t.co/ZiY2jT1X46pic.twitter.com/zBuzyrUX3u
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“Greenland is melting along the lines of the highest rate of warming examined by climate models. In other words, we’re in the worst-case scenario.”https://t.co/BZFOLGwJrx
“Tech companies have fostered a grass-roots surveillance culture that has convinced millions of Americans that they live better when they buy smart speakers, carry smart phones, watch smart televisions, turn their doorbells into unblinking video cameras.” https://t.co/xm8WlJ0Oa6
Kids Across Europe Ask Paul Questions About Climate Change: COP25 Madrid Spain: Part 1 of 3 // Dec 20, 2019
I am extremely happy and grateful to post this video and the next two from my adventures in Madrid, Spain at COP25. My friend Alfonso Soria put out the word to his many teacher friends across Europe that climate scientist Paul was in Madrid.
Teachers in different countries recorded their kids (of all different ages) asking me questions on global warming/climate. The questions were awesome! Enjoy this holiday treat; I found it very touching. Thank you kids and teachers!!
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This is a series of annual special reports for CMD from guest contributor Alex Carlin about his observations at the United Nations climate conference — and this year from the “People’s Summit” in Santiago, Chile as well.
‘Shifting “Center of Cold” Underscores Critical Need for Climate Restoration December 13, 2019–Here at the UN Climate Change Conference in Madrid (COP 25), I ran into a great scientist whom I have followed for years, Paul Beckwith. Paul is a renowned climate system scientist at the University of Ottawa, who puts out many informative and entertaining videos that have helped innumerable people, including myself, get up to speed on what he calls “abrupt climate system change,” where you ask questions like,
”will Earth become Venus any time soon?” In fact, his videos were my first entry into climate science, and I found them to be extremely well done, effective, and fun to watch.
As I interviewed Paul here, he enlightened me about Greenland becoming the “center of cold” in the Arctic. That is, if we don’t prevent the Arctic Ocean from losing its perennial ice, it will become a blue water ocean for most of the year, and Greenland will be colder than the North Pole.
Paul said, “This will lead to profound changes. Greenland is going to be exposed, and melt rates are going to go way way up,” leading to biblical sea level rises. But beyond submerging Miami, he explained that,
The center of cold in the Arctic will move fairly far to the south: from the North Pole (90 degrees North) to the center of Greenland (73 degrees North). So, since the jet air streams which travel around the Earth actually circle around the ‘center of cold,’ this will cause them to become even wavier than they are now, and also it will bring a jet stream ‘trough’ over North America for extended periods of time.
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Huge precedent! "The Dutch Supreme Court ruled the Netherlands is obligated to reduce carbon pollution because it’s violating its citizens’ human rights. The precedent-setting case provides a huge bump to other court battles happening around the world…" https://t.co/zaZ7Bkk1hM
Humanity has often flirted with extinction in the past. Around 195,000 years ago a long glacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 6 – MIS6) wiped out most humans, leaving only a small band of perhaps several hundred people left, living in South Africa. #ClimateChange#climate
The Science Behind Our Climate Emergency in the Oceans: COP25 Madrid: Part 1 of 2 // Dec 11, 2019
Continuing on the climate emergency theme, myself, Dr. Peter Carter from the Climate Emergency Institute, and Regina Valdez discuss the oceans, and the scientific justification for an oceanic climate emergency. Clearly, as oceans warm, expand, acidify, and have reduced vertical mixing of oxygen and nutrients, the entire marine ecosystem from the base of the food chain to the highest trophic levels are all threatened. Life on land requires life in the oceans.
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Our Oceanic Climate Emergency: COP25 Madrid: Life on Land Needs Life in the Oceans: Part 2 of 2 // Dec 11, 2019
Second of two videos, continues from above.
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A Rant Through Madrid Spain’s Metro System on my way to the COP25 // Dec 11, 2019
The Madrid Metro System is an extremely clean, efficient, modernized transportation system, and many stations, like this one near the COP25 were adorned with posters chock full of interesting climate emergency slogans.
I couldn’t resist a stroll through the corridors, filming what was there and recording the messaging for the COP. Spain, Madrid specifically, did a great job in pulling together all the preparations for the conference with less than a months notice.
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Nothing else need be said, at this time: James Hansen & Dan Galpern – Sue the ******, Solve the Problem https://t.co/Mr754WwQfG
6 lives lost in fires, 100 ppl a day hospitalised with respiratory problems, 2.7m ha and 724 homes burnt, towns running out of air and choking on smoke pollution. 11 days into summer. To call it “philosophical” is downright offensive. #NSWFires#QLDFireshttps://t.co/casKSaInRB
The Arctic's snow and ice are the planet's air-conditioner, reflecting the sun's energy back into space and keeping temperatures around the North Pole cool.
But a new report shows there are signs that this critical cooling system may be breaking down. https://t.co/SE1eCk1Qj9
Anxiously preparing for my #COP25 press conference in 1.5 hours or so. Today’s topic is the scientific justification that we are in an urgent climate emergency
Global Climate Emergency Scientific Justification: COP25 Madrid Press Conference: Part 1 of 2 // Dec 5, 2019
The World Meteorological Organization-WMO reported global average temperatures 1.1C higher than 19th century levels.
Paris 1.5C and 2C targets are relative to a pre-industrial baseline (1750). Thus, add 0.3C to the WMO number so warming is already 1.4C. How can this not be a climate emergency?
Making the case for scientific justification of a global climate emergency, myself, Dr Peter Carter from the Climate Emergency Institute, and Regina Valdez chat. We are at the COP25 Conference, right now, in Madrid Spain.
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Second of two videos, continues from above.
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A new UN report today said that in order to preserve a livable planet, we need to increase climate action five-fold, starting immediately.
This quote from Gabriel is probably the best I've ever heard about what that sense of urgency feels like.
The Galton board: 3000 steel balls fall through 12 levels of branching paths and end up matching a bell curve distribution. Each ball has a 50% chance of following each branch such that the balls are distributed by the mathematical binomial distribution https://t.co/CSS8vafLRdpic.twitter.com/PlQ2EYe7ua
On the brink of 2020, we now need to reduce emissions by 7.6% every year from 2020 to 2030. If we do not, we will miss a closing moment in history to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Climate Restoration to Ensure Life’s Long-Term Survival on our Planet: 1 of 3 // Nov 25, 2019
When people talk about what society needs to do about climate change you often hear talk of Mitigation (reducing emissions to zero by 2050) and Adaptation (dealing with the changes that are already occurring). We must add CLIMATE RESTORATION to this lexicon.
Climate restoration is all about ensuring that the climate for our children and grandchildren is returned to the healthy climate enjoyed by our parents and grandparents when they were young children.
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11.20 Whistleblower Dr Luber worked CDC for 17 yrs, heading its climate & health program til last year then reassigned.
Stunted Growth in Arctic Sea Ice Refreeze // Nov 19, 2019
Arctic sea ice behavior continues to surprise us. In August as it approached the September minimum, ice loss stalled out, and as it refroze in October/November ice growth stalled again. The high Arctic above 82.5 degrees latitude was 7 degrees C warmer than normal for October.
The jet streams crossed Greenland pushing warm air northward into the Arctic Ocean forming a strong cyclone bringing lots more heat and high winds over the struggling sea ice, as I show on Earth Nullschool. ———- ———-
Big announcement.
Starting this Thursday, both @ScienceWarning & myself are sharing material information being given to us, which we will be providing you here.
Recent interview on Extinction Radio: ‘Episode 101 – 15th November 2019 – Paul Beckwith, Patrick Farnsworth and Michael Sliwa‘. Click here for full episode. ———- ———-
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here. ———- ———-
Dozens of counties across the US have declared an agricultural disaster as record flooding, drought and extreme cold cause "unprecedented" crop losses.
Before saying goodnight for now, we wanted to share an extra feature, to share some of the work of two colleagues, Alex Smith of Radio EcoShock, from the May 8th, 2019 episode: ‘Harsh News from the Weatherman‘.
It features Nick Humphrey, who dk recently connected with on Facebook after a several year rapprochement. He has also been features on our friend Sandy Schoelles’sEnvironmental Coffeehouse. SoundCloud is always a nice way to go, for those of you that can:
Twenty Four Climate COPs and Diddly Squat. Can COP25 in Madrid be Different? // Nov 8, 2019
Twenty-four COPs and diddly squat. What can humanity possibly achieve at COP25? Many of us had high hopes for strong, concerted action on climate change after COP21’s Paris Agreement, only to have our hopes crushed like bugs.
Soon I am going to Madrid for COP25 and I will do everything in my power to educate policymakers in all governments about how our climate emergency is rapidly spiralling out of control. Wish me luck, and please see my ask below.
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Preparations for Madrid COP25 Climate Conference: A Plethora of Catastrophes to Present // Nov 9, 2019
As abrupt climate change accelerates and detrimental consequences to humanity notch upward, there is never a lack of material to present. I focus on:
what is happening,
why, and what we can expect in the next 5 years, 10 years, etc.
As I prepare for presentations at Madrid’s COP25,
I have a huge number of colourful infographics, gifs, and papers to draw on. I discuss some here; if you come across something exceptional then please alert me in a comment with a link.
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I cut through crap, produce edgy video editorials-resolving to continue long as I live. I dont expect #COP25 negotiation breakthroughs-nor expect biggest players stranglehold to be loosened-nor expect false self-congratulations part of annual ritual to be truthful or meaningful. pic.twitter.com/dUD87UBOHP
I am an independent, Climate System Scientist. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.
It would mean a lot, if you would please consider supporting my Trip to COP25–expenses will include transportation/airfare from Ottawa, Canada, to Madrid, Spain, as well as meals and transportation while at COP.
Please also consider donating to support my work. Please click here. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card.
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There's a metaphor here, I think: Massive flooding strands UK shoppers in a shopping mall overnight, where they're forced to buy blankets to sleep on the food court tableshttps://t.co/DKtFdRe0cH
Insurance companies to CA homeowners: we can't insure your house because climate change makes it too risky Insurance companies to Big Oil: we'd love to insure your new pipeline… https://t.co/HtfZBBKtCy
WE ARE BEING WARNED Humanity is on collision course with Nature. A damaged Nature will survive.
All scientists, citizens, companies & organizations are invited to sign/endorse the articles recommendations, & help change civilization’s current trajectory.https://t.co/SLqIe8DyYzhttps://t.co/bHWdsVnPJ5
Paul Goes Soon to Madrid’s COP25 to Hang Out with Greta and Warn Our Planet on Our Climate Emergency // Nov 7, 2019
Many people like me that were going to attend the Conference of Parties (COP25) climate conference in Santiago, Chile in early December watched as civil unrest and protests worsened. Chile has been a relatively stable place in South America since the end of the Pinochet regime about 30 years ago.
Things were in limbo as the Chilean government cancelled the COP, but fortunately the mantle was taken up by Madrid in Spain. I head to Madrid in a few weeks.
Please consider a new–or further–donation to my PayPal, to help offset my out-of-pocket COP25 travel expenses. Does not require an account, just credit card.
Or if you prefer, you can alternatively consider please donating at my GoFundMe page, at:
Paul Beckwith, well-known climate system scientist/physicist/engineer and educator, will be attending theUN Climate Change Conference from December 2 to December 13, 2019, in Madrid, Spain. The conference will feature the 25th session of the Conference of the Parties(COP 25) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). His travel expenses will be out-of-pocket.
Based inOttawa, Ontario, Canada, Paul isa respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos, usually pertaining to climate system science, abrupt climate change, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences…
During his time at COP 25, Paul will have the opportunity toparticipate in press conferences, provide climate reports, and meet with other climate scientists and activists, such as:
Greta Thunberg(Youth Swedish Climate Activist),
Dr. James Hansen (Ex-Nasa scientist/Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions Program at Columbia University),
Dr. Peter Wadhams (Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group) and
Dr. Peter Carter (Founder of the Climate Emergency Institute and IPCC Expert Reviewer).
Paul’s expenses will include transportation/airfare from Ottawa, Canada, to Madrid, Spain, as well as meals and transportation while in Madrid. He would be most grateful for every single donation.
Last but not least, very special thanks to both ScientistsWarning.org’s Core Team Members, Heidi Brault and Charles Gregoire. They are very special persons. ———- ———-
Also, I cannot thank @StuartGaia enough for his friendship over many years, and his dedication to the truth about our climate crisis and societies money perversions. pic.twitter.com/GUHkhCUmPQ
Rapid Sea-Level Rise “Threat Multipliers” to Coastlines, Nuclear Power Plants, and Mega-Cities
The military worries about rapid climate system change as being a “threat multiplier”. As climate caused catastrophes worsen, risks to nuclear power plants, spent radioactive fuel storage, and the power grid proportionately increase.
We’ve already had nuclear power plants narrowly missing direct hits by massive hurricanes, specifically in Florida in the last few years.
We had to throttle down power output from nuclear plants using river cooling water during heat waves, due to high water temperatures, or low water levels. The biggest risk going forward is to coastal nuclear plants being swamped by rapid sea level rise.
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Waging War Has Gigantic Carbon Footprint that is NOT even Counted in Overall Global Emissions
Horribly, some major industries that cross borders, most significantly container shipping transport, and airline transport, for both goods and people, are not counted in global carbon budgets.
The military carbon footprints in most countries are not counted either, or even calculated consistently and publicly reported on or even acknowledged. Many, like the U.S. military, which has waged war since 2001, have an enormous carbon footprint. This has to change, with our climate emergency nobody gets a free pass. In this video and the next two, I continue to chat on risks of collapse of the U.S. military from abrupt climate system change. ———- ———-
Climate Change Caused Power Grid Collapse and Disease Epidemics Could CRUSH U.S. Military Like a Bug
Cascading, devastating, consequences of abrupt climate change are hitting us (you and I) harder and harder, threatening to even topple the mighty U.S. military within 20 years.
One of the weakest links in modern economies is the rapidly degrading electrical power grid; think of the enormous size, power, and wealth in California’s high-tech industries, yet many companies and over a million people there have been facing rolling power outages with their decrepit, wildfire causing power line poles being toppled in Santa Ana winds, bringing economies to their knees.
What happens when the power no longer comes on?
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U.S. Military Could Collapse within 20 Years due to Climate Change: Pentagon Commissioned Report
A recent report by the U. S. Army War College (Pentagon commissioned) concludes that the U. S. Military could collapse within 20 years from climate change. This is a startling admission; that the most powerful military force that has ever existed on Earth could be rendered impotent, crushed like a bug, in less than 2 decades by climate change.
Clearly, the ability of abrupt climate system mayhem to utterly destroy humanities military, infrastructure, indeed human civilization itself is scarcely recognized or acted on by human power structures, yet is blindingly obvious to hordes of schoolchildren around the planet (and me). ———- ———-
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here. ———- ———-
Amid the impeachment inquiry, the Trump admin has:
1) launched a campaign offensive around its fossil fuel agenda 2) started formally withdrawing from Paris 3) finalized clean water rule repeal 4) weakened species protections 5) sued Cali over climatehttps://t.co/Xe8LrfpK6e
How Hurricanes (Typhoons, Cyclones) Trigger Earthquakes As They Cross Continental Shelves: 1 of 2 // Oct 20, 2019
When Typhoon Hagibis hit Tokyo, Japan October 12th, 2019 there was a 5.7 earthquake the same day. A new paper discusses “stormquakes”, as a new discovery connecting small magnitude 3.5 earthquakes to tropical storms or nor’easters crossing “ocean banks” on continental shelves, exciting vibrations in the rock that can then propagate across entire continents.
However, this is not new stuff!! I discussed these connections with Hurricane Sandy in the fall of 2012, where the storm triggered three large earthquakes (magnitudes 7.8, 6.3, and 6.2) off Vancouver, Canada.
Paul is ‘the first person interviewed when you open the Table of Contents pdf’, on Talk Show, TOC: To Save The World.
Project Save the World is sponsored by Peace Magazine: ‘We post a new hour-long video discussion every Monday at 8:00 pm EDT on Peace Magazine’s Facebook page, YouTube, and our website,http://tosavetheworld.ca, where you can endorse the Platform for Survival, 25 public policy proposals to reduce the risk of six threats to humankind.
Each sound track is available as an audio podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and other sites, as well as on our website‘.
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Our new @NatureClimate paper finds land sector could contribute 20 to 30% of the mitigation needed by 2050 to limit warming to 1.5C. Deforestation and reforestation make up around 55% of the total, but a bunch of other actions matter too: https://t.co/yMawFQf9mmpic.twitter.com/qTELMnlvkw
Scary conditions in the Arctic. Lowest October sea ice extent on record! So far only 4.97 km² and the re-freeze proceeds agonizingly slow… pic.twitter.com/RGxtuyFH83
How a Limited Nuclear War (Pakistan v. India) Would Cause Global Food Shortages and Mass Starvation // Oct 18, 2019
Since the Cold War between the world’s major superpowers ended, people have become very complacent about the threats of nuclear war. A new research paper shatters this illusion by showing that even a relatively small and limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan, apart from killing more people in those countries (50-125 million) in less than one week than all World War II fatalities, would block 20 to 35% of surface sunlight and cool the surface 2C to 5C causing global crop failures; thus causing mass starvation and additional worldwide mayhem.
Ref: India-Pakistan nuclear war could kill millions and threaten global starvation: A study conducted by researchers from the University of Colorado Boulder and Rutgers University examines how such a hypothetical future conflict would have consequences rippling across the globe. Today, India and Pakistan each have about 150 nuclear warheads at their disposal, and that number is expected to climb to more than 200 by 2025.
How “Nuclear Winter” Halts Global Plant Growth Causing Crop Failure and Worldwide Mass Starvation // Oct 18, 2019
The unthinkable “nuclear winter” scenario occurs when detonations of many nuclear bombs over cities create intense fireballs which loft black carbon high into the stratosphere (upper atmosphere), blocking the Sun and thus halting global plant growth thus causing mass starvation. A Pakistan – India nuclear war (or US – Russia nuclear war) would:
block surface sunlight 20-35% (75%),
cool global surfaces 2-5C (10C),
reduce precipitation 15-30% (60%),
reduce Net Primary Productivity 15-30% (100%) on land;
‘A giant cloud from 2017 Canadian fires lingered in the atmosphere for a year, showing scientists how a cloud from a nuclear bomb would behave‘.
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“We didn’t see anything like this prior to the late 1990s,”
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Arctic Methane Measurements over Eastern Siberian Shelf Are Now the Highest Ever Measured: 1 of 2 // Oct 10, 2019
A group of Russian scientists led by Igor Semiletov, aboard one of the world’s largest research ships, the RV Akademik Mstislav Keldysh over the Arctic Ocean’s Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf have directly measured extremely high methane levels in the water column and atmosphere above. Seafloor permafrost sediments are thawing with high ocean temperatures and the organic material is then decomposed by microbes to produce methane which bubbles up to the surface. Methane levels in air were as high as 16 ppm which is 9x higher than global average levels.
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Jaw-Dropping Methane Levels up to 9 times Global Average Measured Recently Over Arctic Shelf: 2 of 2 // Oct 10, 2019
In our world of satellite data, computer models, and simulations, on-the-ground (on-the-ocean in this case!) field work is invaluable. UK’s Peter Wadham’s is the sea-ice expert and Russia’s Igor Semiletov is the Arctic methane expert, both exploring via numerous expeditions over many decades. Recent data from an expedition led by the latter report report stunning methane levels 9x higher than global averages. This is very serious, given methane’s global warming potential of 34x, 86x, and over 150x with timescales of 100 years, 20 years, and a few years, respectively.
———— Is Greta Thunberg the Catalyst that Tips Humanity to Understand Huge Climate Risks and Finally Act? // Sep 27, 2019
As I marched in today’s Climate Strike for in Ottawa along with thousands of people I had time to reflect on what is really going on. Many years ago I figured out that inevitably humanity would reach a tipping point in its understanding of the huge risks that all life on Earth faces from accelerating climate system destabilization. I also said we would likely only recognize reaching a tipping point in the rear view mirror, after it occurred. Is it possible that Greta Thunberg is the catalyst for thrusting us beyond this tipping point of understanding? It certainly feels like it.
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Variability and long-term decline in September #Arctic sea ice thickness (upper) & volume (lower).
—> September 2019 was the 2nd lowest Arctic sea ice volume on record.
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Canada’s fossil fuel subsidies amount to $1,650 per Canadian. It’s got to stop.: https://t.co/6RYUHv8poa
Greta Thunberg the Catalyst that Tips Humanity to Understand Huge Climate Risks and Finally Act? // Sep 27, 2019
As I marched in today’s Climate Strike for in Ottawa along with thousands of people I had time to reflect on what is really going on. Many years ago I figured out that inevitably humanity would reach a tipping point in its understanding of the huge risks that all life on Earth faces from accelerating climate system destabilization.
500,000 in Montreal
today, where Greta was…
I also said we would likely only recognize reaching a tipping point in the rear view mirror, after it occurred. Is it possible that Greta Thunberg is the catalyst for thrusting us beyond this tipping point of understanding? It certainly feels like it.
Ref2: ‘Why is Greta Thunberg so triggering for certain men?‘ Irish Times, Sat 07-Sept-2019, by Jennifer O’Connell. How can a 16-year-old girl in plaits, dedicated to trying to save the planet, inspire such incandescent rage?
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Return of the BLOB; aka Marine Heat Wave // Sep 25, 2019
In 2014 a phenomena appeared on which there is no history. The ocean temperature off the west coast of North America rose and destroyed marine diversity and wreaked havoc on weather patterns around the globe. Known as the “BLOB”, this voracious spot raised water temperatures in the North Pacific between 4 and 5 degrees Celsius (7-8 F), killing off humpback whales, Pacific cod, and huge numbers of birds, among other creatures.
Is the BLOB, otherwise known as a Marine Heat Wave (MHW) back to torture us? Water temperature is thus far up 2.8 degrees C.
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Marine Heat Waves Resulting in Severe Consequences: BLOB 2.0 // Sep 26, 2019
I continue chatting on the new “BLOB”, this voracious spot of very high water temperatures in the North Pacific Ocean, otherwise known as a Marine Heat Wave (MHW). As abrupt climate change accelerates, the heating is highly non uniform across the planet. Most people know that Arctic Warming is 3x to 5x faster than the global average, but not that:
land is warming 2x faster than oceans
mountain regions 2x to 3x faster
western ocean boundary currents 2x to 3x faster than the overall ocean.
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After discussing with Greta here in Potsdam and in Stockholm, I can vouch that she acts out of her own authentic motivation, and she knows the science. I wish more politicians would get this well-informed about climate science! Why is that not the case? https://t.co/PRIWTfwmZJ
Paul just asked that this be published, to this site, dk:
Greta Thunberg’s full speech to world leaders at UN Climate Action Summit // Sep 23, 2019
‘Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. “You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words,” Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. “You’re failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you,” she added.
Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN’s meeting of political and business leaders.’
Ref2: ‘Climate activist Greta Thunberg, 16, addressed the U.N.’s Climate Action Summit in New York City on Monday. Here’s the full transcript of Thunberg’s speech, beginning with her response to a question about the message she has for world leaders.
“My message is that we’ll be watching you.
“This is all wrong. I shouldn’t be up here. I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you!
“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!
“For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal clear. How dare you continue to look away and come here saying that you’re doing enough, when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight.
“You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that. Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil. And that I refuse to believe.
“The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], and the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control.
“Fifty percent may be acceptable to you. But those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution or the aspects of equity and climate justice. They also rely on my generation sucking hundreds of billions of tons of your CO2 out of the air with technologies that barely exist.
“So a 50% risk is simply not acceptable to us — we who have to live with the consequences.
“To have a 67% chance of staying below a 1.5 degrees global temperature rise – the best odds given by the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] – the world had 420 gigatons of CO2 left to emit back on Jan. 1st, 2018. Today that figure is already down to less than 350 gigatons.
“How dare you pretend that this can be solved with just ‘business as usual’ and some technical solutions? With today’s emissions levels, that remaining CO2 budget will be entirely gone within less than 8 1/2 years.
“There will not be any solutions or plans presented in line with these figures here today, because these numbers are too uncomfortable. And you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is.
“You are failing us. But the young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say: We will never forgive you.
“We will not let you get away with this. Right here, right now is where we draw the line. The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.
“Thank you.”
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Signs and impacts of climate change speeding up, latest science says: -> Sea-level rise accelerating from 3.2mm per year since 1993 to 5mm per year ->5-year period from 2014 to 2019 warmest on record ->Temperatures up by 1.1°C since 1850, 0.2°C just between 2011 and 2015 pic.twitter.com/2O0OV0zAER
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Here is the first of three new videos dealing with much more southern weather and oceanography, posted today and yesterday. Paul also added one more video dealing with the North Pole and Greenland from our recent post, here. This is from three days ago.
Record Setting Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Over Antarctica: Causes and Consequences //
I shift gears from the Arctic to chat about the Southern Hemisphere and Antarctica. Since the last week of August, the stratospheric polar vortex first became elongated and then completely destabilized, with some regions warming up abruptly from about -70C to an incredible +13C, causing the high altitude vortex to morph into two and then even three vortices.
My understanding is that rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice in some regions and gain in others caused an asymmetry of sea ice around the continent, thus causing asymmetry and breakdown of the vortex.
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“By 2100, average temperatures could rise 7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels if carbon emissions continue unabated, two separate models set to replace those used in current UN projections, from two different leading research centers showed.” https://t.co/6KKFekVsUQ
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What’s up (down) with Arctic Sea-Ice: Extent, Thickness, Volume Dynamics and Thermodynamics // Sep 12, 2019
In September, 2012 Arctic sea ice extent (regions with at least 15% sea ice concentration) set a record low extent, far below any previous year and subsequent year, until now.
This year, up until about mid-August, sea ice extent closely tracked 2012, in fact was even lower than 2012 for long periods of time. Then, quite unexpectedly, 2019 melt significantly flattened out, stalling to be far behind 2012.
In this first of a series of videos, I discuss possible reasons for this stalling, in light of the fact that sea-ice volume continued to track closely to that in 2012, with no sign of stalling.
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New Ice Behavior Regime for Arctic Sea Ice Melt // Sep 132, 2019
I continue discussing details of Arctic sea ice melt, including the puzzling stalling of the extent drop in mid-August; yet continuation of volume loss to match 2012 (year that set records for both lowest volume and lowest extent).
Physical properties of the sea ice remaining are different since most of the stronger, purer (less salt content), thicker, older multi-year ice has melted out, or been exported and melted, leaving behind only weaker, saltier, thinner, younger first year and second year ice. We are in a new ice behavior regime, with different melt and freeze dynamics.
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Is Climate System Internal Variability Significantly Messing with Arctic Sea Ice Demise Predictions? // Sep 13, 2019
Continuing my Arctic sea ice loss videos, I discuss a paper on sea ice thickness variability arguing that internal variability of the climate system is very large, and thinner ice is even more sensitive to internal variability.
It suggests that we cannot predict complete loss of Arctic sea ice within a time window of less than 20 years; and that the difference in emissions pathways between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 adds 5 more years to uncertainty. I am extremely skeptical of this result. To me, large variability means when a large negative swing occurs the sea ice will unexpectedly and rapidly vanish.
Ref: ‘How predictable is the first ice-free Arctic summer?’ 25 August 2016 17:44, Guest post by Dr. Alexandria Jahn.
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Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness in Six Different Arctic Basins // Sep 14, 2019
Continuing my Arctic sea ice loss videos, I examine a paper on sea ice thickness variability that uses the PIOMAS model and a Community Earth System Model. Dividing the Arctic Ocean up into 6 different basins:
Barents-Kara Seas,
Laptev Sea,
East Siberian Sea,
Beaufort-Chukchi Seas,
Greenland Sea, and the
Central Arctic Basin (CAB).
It examines each basins sea ice thickness history and projections, and timing as to when basin thickness average falls below 0.5 meters. Greenland Sea lasts longest (cushioned by cold glacier meltwater); the CAB lasts next longest.
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Global atmospheric temperature change (1979-2018).
The lower atmosphere is warming while the upper atmosphere is cooling – a clear fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect from human emissions of carbon dioxide. #showyourstripespic.twitter.com/0VdHs00Fq0
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A beautiful, informative article discussing how climate has changed over the last ~120 years.
The rate of #Arctic sea ice decline has significantly slowed compared to 2012. It is very unlikely this year will set a new record minimum extent in September. pic.twitter.com/VlGO4GKt6H
The growing threat of the gas dubbed “the electrical industry’s dirty little secret…”
THREAD
Emissions of Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) have risen dramatically in recent years partly due to renewable energy @bbcnews EXCLUSIVEhttps://t.co/cQZx8VDobI
Bahama Death Toll of 40,000 from Hurricane Dorian: My Estimate // Sep 9, 2019
Just after Category 5 Hurricane Dorian stalled over the Grand Bahamas and Abaco Islands for 1.5 days, with
185 mph sustained winds (225 mph gusts) and a
storm surge covering 2/3 of the islands,
with up to 25 foot deep seawater,
the world media reported an absurd death toll of exactly 5 people.
Over the next 10 days their insane number climbed to 7, 10, 20, …, 45. What really happened?
I estimate a death toll of up to 40,000 people; over 10% of the countries population. Most of these people were likely washed out to sea by the massive storm surge, never to be seen again.
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How Bahamas (and ALL Caribbean) can Increase Resiliency to Face Onslaught of MASSIVE Hurricanes // Sep 9, 2019
Clearly, the northernmost Bahama islands have been essentially destroyed with tremendous loss of life; last video I estimated 40,000 dead; most people washed out to sea to never be seen again. The world faces many extremely difficult decisions on what to do moving forward, including should we even rebuild, to be destroyed again?
Given that we do rebuild, I chat about how it should be done in the most resilient way possible, and suggest that the Caribbean Island’s own their own cruise ships to greatly increase resiliency in the face of massive hot-water charged superstorms.
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"Just two vendors—ES&S & Dominion Voting—account for 80% of US election equipment. Thus, corrupt insiders or foreign hackers could wreak havoc on elections throughout the US by infiltrating either of these vendors." By @jennycohn1 Thread. 1/ https://t.co/eYU69P4AuT
Here is the full story we put together after getting off the ferry this morning. Hurricane evacuees kicked off the boat. Crew on the boat blamed US Customs and Border Protection, CBP now blames the ferry company @Balearia . pic.twitter.com/QLRcxbALdk
Hurricane Danger Increasing from Climate Change: chat on the SCIENCE // Sep 3, 2019
I delve deeply into recent, cutting edge science on how climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) above 26.5 C fuel cyclones, making them more intense.
Global satellite coverage available since 1985 shows a consistent average of 80 tropical cyclones per year,
varying from 65 to 90, with no discernible trend.
However, since 1975 there has been a substantial increase in the proportion of Cat. 4 -5 hurricanes of 25-30% per degree C of global warming (and a similar decrease in Cat. 1 -2 hurricanes.
Rapid intensification of hurricanes has increased 4.4 mph per decade.
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Unprecedented Behaviour: Category 5 Dorian Gets Stuck on Grand Bahama Island // Sep 3, 2019
What causes a Category 5 Hurricane (Cat. 6 if it existed) to park itself over Grand Bahama Island, and stay stationary over 1.5 days while churning away, grinding the island to a pulp, and submerging lots of the island under 24 feet of seawater?
I show you on Earth NullSchool how Dorian behaved, and then I delve into the science on how climate change is making hurricanes much more dangerous. Imagine what would happen if Dorian had parked itself off Miami instead; the damage to Florida’s east coast could have run into trillions of dollars. We must think about the unthinkable, with abrupt climate change.
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Hurricane Dorian Essentially Wipes Grand Bahama Island from the Map // Sep 3, 2019
It is heart-wrenching witnessing utter devastation that Hurricane Dorian unleashed on the Bahamas. This powerful Category 5
(sustained winds over 180 mph (300 km/hr),
peak winds 225 mph (360 km/hr),
storm surge 24 feet)
razed and submerged lots of Bahama’s northern islands,
unprecedentedly parking over Grand Bahama for 36 hours.
Imagine being hit by winds equal to a tornadoes EF3-EF4 not for a minute or so, but continuously for 1.5 days, while inundated with 24 foot ocean surge, and torrential rainfall. If this had occurred 50 miles to the west, it could have caused trillions of dollars of damage to Florida’s east coast.
‘Major hurricanes are by far the world’s costliest natural weather disasters, in some cases causing well over $100 billion in damage. There’s now evidence that the unnatural effects of human-caused global warming are already making hurricanes stronger and more destructive. The latest research shows the trend is likely to continue as long as the climate continues to warm.’
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First person account of Dorian who was lucky to escape with his life. HurricaneMan:
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Island of 50,000 People in the #Bahamas Is 70% Under Water
Yep, I’m alive. Made it to Nassau. #Hurricane#DORIAN: By far the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing. Thought I was playing it safe by riding it out in a solid-concrete school on a hill in Marsh Harbour. Thought wrong.
Since records began in 1851, #Dorian is the slowest moving major hurricane (something that scientists have linked to a warming climate). This is what happens when a storm just sits like a blender over the Bahamas. pic.twitter.com/5qxHKfh7N7
Amazon Rainforest as a Significant but Highly Vulnerable Global Climate Tipping Element // Aug 27, 2019
The Amazon Rainforest is one of the very significant yet vulnerable tipping elements in the overall climate system. Willful human destruction of the rainforest by slash-and-burn techniques (trees are toppled by chainsaw or tractors with chains, allowed to dry out, and are then torched) is behind 99% of the present fires, according to some accounts. In this first of a series of 5 videos, I wade through the science and attempt to determine the most accurate numbers on the Amazon Rainforest impact as a carbon sink and oxygen producer, in the overall global context.
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Vital Significance of Amazon Rainforest as Carbon Sink // Aug 27, 2019
How significant, on a global scale, is the Amazon Rainforest? Best I can tell, correct annual numbers are: Tropical rainforests account for 34% of land-based global photosynthesis; Amazon Rainforest is almost half that, namely 16%. Total oxygen produced by land-based photosynthesis is 330 Pg, thus Amazon is 54 Pg. Ocean phytoplankton oxygen production is 240 Pg. Total global photosynthesis is 330 + 240 = 570 Pg of oxygen (58% land, 42% ocean). Amazon produces 54/570=9.5% of total global oxygen; with carbon sink being 9.5% of global plant total sink.
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Amazon Rainforest: Crunching the Numbers // Aug 27, 2019
As far as I can tell in my analysis, the most accurate numbers on carbon sink and oxygen production sizes for the Amazon Rainforest in a global photosynthesis context are in a blog by ecologist Yadvinder Malhi, which I discuss in detail within this series of 5 videos (this one is 3/5). If the entire Amazon Rainforest was to collapse (burn) then about 90 Pg of carbon would be released to the atmosphere (adding about 40 ppm, an increase of almost 10% of our present 415 ppm), using up 240 Pg of oxygen (a very small 0.02% of the oxygen level in the atmosphere).
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We Need to Plant Many New Amazon Equivalents, Not Destroy Our Existing One // Aug 27, 2019
If the entire Amazon burned down, a release of 90 Pg of carbon to the atmosphere, equivalent to a 40 ppm rise in atmospheric CO2, was mentioned in the previous video description based on Yadvinder Malhi blog. By the same token, if people on Earth got their act together and planted a new Amazon (about 390 billion trees, estimated from Amazon Wikipedia) this would drawdown about 40 ppm (90 Pg) or 10% of atmospheric concentration. At present, atmospheric CO2 rises 2-3 ppm/year, so 40 ppm is only between13-20 years worth of global emissions.
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Playing with Amazon Fire will get us all Burned // Aug 27, 2019
According to the Wiki on Amazon Rainforest: “In 2018 about 17% of the Amazon Rainforest was already destroyed. Research suggests that upon reaching about 20-25% (hence 3-8% more), the tipping point to flip it into non-forest ecosystems – degraded savannah – (in eastern, southern and central Amazonia) will be reached.” Given 3 recent century scale droughts in the Amazon Rainforest in 2005, 2010, and 2015-2016, and slash-and-burn human practices accelerating again, we are quite literally playing with fire in a game we cannot win.
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This story is a real bombshell. Reporter Ryan Grim reveals that one of the biggest culprits of Amazon destruction is a US company, Blackstone, whose CEO is close friends with Trump and bankrolls the US Senate leader Republican Mitch McConnell. https://t.co/Kphs5dPA70
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People tell me ditching school is bad, but I must say, "nurdles" are way worse.https://t.co/cr5gcB7CH4
