Earth Spasms from Profoundly Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 12, 2019
Fourth view in this by now, four part series.
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I had the honor & privilege of bringing@GretaThunberg to COP-24 thus helping launch her youth activism for life on Earth into orbit.
A look at the loss of thicker (usually older) #Arctic sea ice in Octobers from 1979-2016 (PIOMAS, ice < 1.5 meters masked black) pic.twitter.com/BtHCwVUdKk
Our media and 24 hour news cycle simply can’t handle the scope of this story. It should be THE story. Everything else is mice scurrying compared to this. https://t.co/uO6OGCYcAr
Reflections on Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 11, 2019
For many years, myself and colleagues at AMEG (Arctic Methane Emergency Group; founded by John Nissen in the UK) have brainstormed on how risky our rapidly accelerating climate destabilization is to all ecosystems on Earth, including humanities, and what we need to do about it [1].
In this first of a series of videos, I chat on abrupt climate changes in the past, what is happening now, and what we can expect in the near future.
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The Latest and Not-So-Greatest on Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 11, 2019
Second of two videos.
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Focus on Emitters. Got minute? All it takes @KevinClimate Deputy Dir Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research get to point. We need focus policies on curbing emissions of wealthiest persons. He sizes benefits to humanity of adjusting patterns of small %. https://t.co/NJYVNoDbsFpic.twitter.com/eXyMUWodbQ
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No state had it worse with wildfires last year than California, a federal report released this week confirmed. https://t.co/XGVTI4Pt0e
“Global warming used to be viewed as a problem distant in time and space,”
“But Americans increasingly understand that global warming is here and now and are growing concerned about the threat to themselves, their communities and the nation.” https://t.co/LmOD5Zy9sM
— Paul Dawson on Climate Change (@PaulEDawson) March 10, 2019
1:2 'None of this is front page news.
1 The oceans are being killed. 2 Forests will soon be gone. 3 Fertile soil is disappearing. 4 Megafauna risk extermination. 5 Insects are vanishing. 6 Climate chaos is inevitable. 7 Extinction is now. 8 Plastic is in our blood.'@ClimateBenpic.twitter.com/PvasD7wKXS
Yesterday was the busiest day of the year in the skies so far and our busiest day ever. 202,157 flights tracked! The first time we've tracked more than 200,000 flights in a single day on https://t.co/krDfUYSbzKpic.twitter.com/ApCMHaVEQp
[1] While the first link is not current, we share them as they are nevertheless still representative. The second one is to the Facebook AMEG Page. Paul also writes about AMEG, here: Arctic Methane Emergency Group: Plea to G20 Leaders, from July 07, 2017.
Rise of The METHANE; Latest Science on Temporal and Spatial Variations: 1 of 2 // Feb 26, 2019
Since 2007 atmospheric methane concentrations have risen strongly; average rate 7 ppb per year. Methane’s Global-Warming Potential multiplies warming vs. CO2 by 34x, 86x, and 150-200x on time scales of 100 years, 20 years, and a few years, respectively.
Total radiative forcing of methane is rapidly catching that of CO2, making Paris targetsnearly impossible to reach without emergency actions.
Here, and next video, I chat on latest methane science; including spatial and temporal variation, isotopic changes, emission locations, etc…
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Rise of the METHANE Over Time and Latitude: 2 of 2 // Feb 28, 2019
Second video in same series on rise of Methane.
Ref: Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014‐2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement
Nisbet, Manning, Dlugokencky,Fisher, Lowry: First published: 05 February 2019:
‘The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1775 ppb in 2006 to 1850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio has shifted, in a new trend to more negative values that have been observed worldwide for over a decade.
‘The causes of methane’s recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and sub‐tropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive.
‘The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/yr in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden‘.
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‘As part of the IPCC WG1 SPM (pdf) released last Friday, there was a subtle, but important, change in one of the key figures – the radiative forcing bar-chart (Fig. SPM.4). The concept for this figure has been a mainstay of summaries of climate change science for decades, and the evolution over time is a good example of how thinking and understanding has progressed over the years while the big picture has not shifted much.’
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This is mad. I'm in a T-shirt. In the Scottish Highlands. In February. I've seen daffodils, bumblebees, frogs, ticks, bats and slow worms. If there's a cold snap, wildlife that has come out of hibernation will suffer enormously. #ClimateCrisis#EcologicalEmergencypic.twitter.com/GIOvtSqA7O
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The extreme event continues to unfold from the Bering Sea (Alaska) into the #Arctic over the next week. Temperatures will rise to more than 20°C above average with further sea ice retreat expected (https://t.co/BkhAkJipgm). Meanwhile, cold air will be displayed into North America pic.twitter.com/HSg2Lt3Jpl
Congress change: “Feinstein has amassed a career’s worth of legislative savvy…having blown our chance at leading, it’s time for those of us of a certain age to follow, with all the grace that we can still muster.“ @billmckibben https://t.co/Ykk2YJXGdC
Parts of the Arctic north of Alaska are currently 50°F warmer than "normal", creating periodic open water in normally hard-frozen sea ice in the dead of winter.https://t.co/471rIpkWbepic.twitter.com/2hg9DGVU4S
I got hot, walking in a t-shirt today. I hope you all realise how utterly weird things have got. And this is with just 1C of heating so far. But remember – there was a difference of only 4C between the last ice age and the Holocene. #ClimateBreakdown
As a #climate scientist, I want to be crystal clear about one thing: the sweeping scope of the #GreenNewDeal approach to addressing #ClimateChange is *not* overly ambitious. It is absolutely commensurate with the massive scale of the challenge at hand. #GND (1/3) pic.twitter.com/pM8f1OFbsy
LECTURE ONE: How Abrupt Climate Change is Redrawing the Map // Feb 20, 2019
In my last video I skated on Ottawa’s frozen Rideau Canal and RANTed about abrupt climate change redrawing planetary maps. Now, in the next few video LECTUREs, I show you new peer reviewed scientific papers (free) supporting what I RANTed about.
Tropics are growing by 30 miles (0.5 degrees latitude) per decade; Hadley Cell expansion, but a “tropic squeeze” shrinking is occurring in equatorial regions with heavy rains (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ). Since 1920, Sahara Desert has grown by 10%, advancing as much as 500 miles northward.
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LECTURE TWO: Abrupt Climate Change Disruption of Your Life // Feb 21, 2019
People used to have to move to experience a new climate. Now, you just have to wait a few years. The North American 100th meridian separating the dry West from the wetter East shifted 140 miles east since 1980.
US Tornado Alley has moved 500 miles east in 30 years. Dorothy, it’s no longer in Kansas. Plant Hardiness Zones migrate Northward 13 miles per decade.
Canada’s Permafrost line has moved 80 miles north in 50 years. Wheat Belts are march poleward up to 160 miles per decade; southern Australia’s is pushing into the sea.
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LECTURE THREE: Your City’s Climate is Shifting Beneath Your Feet // Feb 22, 2019
Thousands of northern lakes no longer freeze up. Amplified warming at high latitudes changed annual ice cover to intermittent or no ice when mean annual surface air temperature exceeds 8.4 C, subject to other factors (lake depth; size, lake elevation; coastline complexity).
A peer-reviewed science paper on “climate analogues” shows how climate in North American cities is shifting south-south-west by an average of 500 miles within a generation. See how fast and far your own cities climate is going.
LECTURE FOUR: Four-Fifths of Coldest Arctic Air Volume has GONE // Feb 22, 2019
In this video, I mostly talk on how the coldest Arctic air volumes are gone. In fact 80% of the coldest air masses are no longer there. Not just cold air at the surface, but cold air all the way up.
As the entire Arctic continues warming at rapidly accelerating rates it is only a matter of time when sea-ice no longer forms; Greenland melting will cause rapid sea-level rise. Extreme weather severity, duration, and frequency will also skyrocket, and unprecedented weather events like snow in deserts will occur.
‘Trends and variations in the amount of cold air mass in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere are evaluated for the 60 year period, 1959–2018. The two indicators are polar cold air mass (PCAM), which is the amount of air below a potential temperature threshold, and negative heat content (NHC), which includes a weighting by coldness. Because the metrics of coldness are based on multiple layers in the atmosphere, they provide a more comprehensive framework for assessment of warming than is provided by surface air temperatures alone‘.
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A mere 100 companies are responsible for 71 percent of global climate emissions.
These people are locking you and everything you love into a tomb.
You have every right to be pissed all the way off.
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Ocean plastics is not the most serious environmental threat to the planet, say two environmental scientists.
“There are still people who focus on sea level rise and imagine that they’ll be fine so long as they don’t live on the coastline. But this is pure fantasy. No one will avoid the ravages of warming, and that reality will soon be impossible to ignore.” https://t.co/gmD86pt3eQ
Forget about carbon emissions and carbon neutrality – if permafrost continues to melt at current rates, it could be game over for humanity https://t.co/wGRYFUQUBJ
climate denial—“The Serengeti strategy” @MichaelEMann—“Much as lions on the Serengeti seek out vulnerable zebras at the edge of a herd, special interests faced with adverse scientific evidence often target individual scientists….” https://t.co/g7NrhSzlPM
Preventing the Earth from descending into a lifeless husk of a planet in a geological blink of an eye is technologically possible, experts say. But it will require confiscating unearned wealth from billionaires and ending the pointless wars we've been fighting for generations. https://t.co/vSiVeoqV82
Tropics have expanded by 0.5 degrees in latitude per decade since 1970s:
Sahara Desert enlarged 10% since 1910.
US100th Meridian has shifted 140 miles to East since 1980.
Tornado Alley moved 500 miles East since 1990.
Plant Hardiness Zones in US move North 13 miles per decade.
Permafrost Line in Canada moved 80 miles North in last 50 years.
Wheat Belt pushed poleward 160 miles per decade, and is rapidly moving out of Australia.
Thousands of Northern Hemisphere lakes are losing ice cover.
Climate of Cities is shifting up to 500 miles within one generation.
Arctic has lost 80% of coldest air in 6 decades.
Uggggggg….. Grrrrrrrr… WTF… What’s Next???
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The most common estimates of the humans who have ever lived on Earth are around 108 billion people. Using that assumption, a little under 7% of all people who have ever lived are alive right now https://t.co/o2njtFnC9Kpic.twitter.com/Xq1AXjwbvd
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Scientists call it California’s “other big one,” and they say it could cause three times as much damage as a major earthquake ripping along the San Andreas Fault. https://t.co/21jaf6VatH
Trump’s gone full dictator on President’s Day. Praising his tv network Fox News, calling the DoJ & FBI traitors, calling McCabe deranged, attacking Rosenstein, attacking Sessions and lying saying that there was an illegal coup attempted by the DoJ. Trump’s lost his fricking mind.
This is really important: is everyone processing that, across two tweets today—considered official presidential statements—the President of the United States falsely accused the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Justice of secretly plotting a "treasonous" "coup"?
Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event Consequences for Greenland: 1 of 2 // Feb 15, 2019
Between 60,000 and 22,000 years ago there were numerous abrupt temperature fluctuations recorded by oxygen and nitrogen isotopes (paleo-thermometer proxies) in Greenland ice cores [1]. Temperatures over parts of Greenland rose by up to 16.5 C within a decade or two, in the largest of these so-called Dansgaard-Oescher (D-O) Oscillations.
I chat on the latest science, about how a lack of Arctic sea-ice was the primary factor. This is crucial info to help us figure out what will happen to Greenland when we have no surrounding sea ice left.
[1] Ref: Arctic sea ice loss in the past linked to abrupt climate events, February 11, 2019, British Antarctic Survey: Lead author, Dr. Louise Sime, a climate scientist at BAS says:
“For years scientists have been puzzled about the correlation between Arctic sea ice loss and the extreme climate events found in the ice core record. There were at least four theories being mooted and for two years we’ve been investigating this problem. I’m delighted that we have proven the critical importance of sea ice using our numerical model simulations.
“The summer time sea ice in the Arctic has experienced a 40% decline in the last few decades, but we know that about two thirds of that reduction is caused by human-induced climate change. What we now need to determine is, what can be learnt from these past sea ice losses to enable us to understand what might happen next to our climate3.”
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Impact of Abrupt Sea-Ice Loss on Greenland: 2 of 2 // Feb 15, 2019
Second video continues where previous left off.
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‘Greenland, Antarctica, South America, the Himalayas – it’s all going, the ice is leaving the Earth.
This is a whirl-wind roundup of new science with Ottawa climate expert Paul Beckwith. We talk pollution (is it saving us?), vanishing glaciers, Tasmanian dry lightening fires, James Hansen’s latest, tech to draw down carbon dioxide, and why this scientist made 500 videos to educate and warn the public via YouTube‘.
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The study found that the world’s seven major industrial democracies spent at least $100 billion a year to prop up oil, gas and coal consumption at home and abroad in 2015 and 2016 despite their pledge to end fossil fuel subsidies by 2025.#ClimateChangehttps://t.co/Pq3aGf2Azs
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Bitter Ann Coulter scolds Trump’s wall plan: ‘The only national emergency is our president is an idiot’ https://t.co/szVpzK8SRW
In the past fifty years, average February temperatures in Utqiagvik, America’s northernmost city, have risen *11 degrees*. Arctic Alaska is experiencing the birth of a new climate. https://t.co/D2EQAVsLME
David Wallace-Wells writes, "Being alarmed is not a sign of being hysterical; when it comes to climate change, being alarmed is what the facts demand. Perhaps the only logical response." https://t.co/EpvzWhfWVa
Alpine Glacier Melt-Out at the Third Pole // Feb 12, 2019
Since 1970 about 15% of the glacial ice has melted out at the “Third Pole”; the extensive region with high elevations in Asia that encompasses the Himalayan Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau. Warming is being amplified by a little-known feedback called Elevation Dependent Warming (EDW). A conservative estimate is that we will lose one-third, one-half or two-thirds of the ice with average global temperature change of 1.5 C, 2.0 C, and 4.0 C, respectively, threatening the water supply (and food supply) for up to 2 billion people.
———- ———- Amplification of Warming at High Elevations // Feb 13, 2019
In most (but not all) high-elevation regions, like the Third Pole (Tibetan Plateau; Himalayan Mountains), Antarctica, Greenland, Rockies, Alps, etc. the higher up you go, the greater the rate of warming. This is not commonly known, but the rate of temperature rise is about 2x, 3x or even greater, at higher altitudes than at lower altitudes, in a phenomena called Elevation Dependent Warming (EDW); clearly analogous to greater warming at higher latitudes. This is bad, especially for Greenland, Antarctica, as well as for the 2 billion people using Third Pole runoff.
———- ———- Feedback Mechanisms Amplifying Warming in Alpine Regions // Feb 13, 2019
In the previous video I described how most alpine regions are warming two to three times faster at high elevations versus low elevations (and global average warming rates). Now I chat about feedbacks and processes that cause this, and how they vary with seasons and different regions. Albedo feedback, similar to that causing polar amplification, is one effect; others include upward creep of snow and tree lines, water vapour increases, cloud changes, aerosol loading changes, and both short-wave and long-wave radiation effects at altitude.
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"The repercussions this will have for the planet's ecosystems are catastrophic to say the least." https://t.co/11vrjHbuuS
"This drought is not going to end until we stop global warming,"
"It's not just precipitation, it's temperatures. We need to understand how what's happening on the land and to plants affects flows. It would be crazy to bet on increased precipitation."https://t.co/AgO1faLPix
I asked some Green New Deal critics for alternative policy suggestions.
The only one that emerged was a sort of "Green Marshall Plan" that relies on yet-to-be-developed technology for low- or zero-carbon agriculture and manufacturing.https://t.co/ogBCBK7BLK
Just about nobody in political life talks about climate change with the required level of alarm and fear. This will be a generational battle for survival.
Jet Stream Shift 17 degrees Southward to Greenland
Summary
Well known and respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos of sometimes daunting subjects, especially in climate system science, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences at YouTube.
Frequently called upon for commentary by fellow educators, activists, and public. Physicist, Engineer, and part-time professor at the University of Ottawa. His primary interest is joining-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change to determine where we are heading, and how fast, and what it all means for us and our amazing planet.
