Impact of Coronavirus On Global Dimming

Magnitude of Global Dimming from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 1 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020

Global Dimming from industrial and transportation aerosols is likely between 0.25C and 1.1C with a best estimate of 0.5C. As global industry/transportation shutters due to our coronavirus actions, the sky clears due to reduced pollution, unmasking global dimming.

My educated best guess on the size of the direct effect warming pulse is 0.25C globally if half of industry shuts down, realized as a 0.5C warning over land and 0.125C warming over the oceans. Maybe double these numbers with indirect effects from cloud changes. Also, daily temperature range will increase, specifically due to shutdown of the airline industry.

Ref:  ‘Coronavirus: Air pollution and CO2 fall rapidly as virus spreads‘, Matt McGrath 19 March 2020, BBC
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Amount of Global Dimming Expected from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 2 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020

Continues where last video, left off.
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Warming we can expect from Global Dimming reduction due to Coronavirus Industrial Shutdowns: 3 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020

Continues where second video, left off. Video three of three.
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Continues where last video, left off.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Global Warming, Policy, Rapid Climate Change, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Coronavirus Tsunami

Modelling the Coming Coronavirus Tsunami: Imperial College Paper // Mar 18, 2020

This new paper from Imperial College models the expected number of cases of coronavirus and the total number of deaths that we would expect in both the UK (Great Britain) and in the USA.

The modelling starts with a worst case scenario of no interventions, and projects total deaths of 510,000 in the UK (peaking early June) and 2.2 million in the USA (peaking late June) with a caveat: these are direct deaths, not accounting for spillover effects to other critical care patients without the virus).

It then models the effects of so-called Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to shift the curve to a later date, and lower the peak. These include shutting schools and universities, social distancing, self-isolation, quarantines, to shutting cities and countries.

Ref:  ‘Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand‘.  16 March 2020, Link to 20 page article, here. here.
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Will the Coronavirus Pandemic Weaken in the Northern Hemisphere as we move into Summer? // Mar 17, 2020

I discuss a new scientific paper that examines the present coronavirus spread and shows correlations of the hardest hit regions to temperature and humidity changes with latitude. This is only one paper, but it seems to indicate that the hardest hit regions are within an average temperature band from 5C to 11C, with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/cm3). If this is confirmed in subsequent scientific studies then it could indicate that Covid-19 is a seasonal respiratory virus. Promising (since it would slow down in summer); but too early to tell for sure at the moment.
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History of Pandemics; Will Covid-19 Slow Down in Summer? // Mar 17, 2020

Throughout human history, as we spread across the world we have had infectious diseases as a constant companion. Outbreaks continue to happen, even more frequently in our modern era.

First, I discuss a timeline over the last 2000 years and chat about some of histories most deadly pandemics, including the biggies such as Black Death (Bubonic Plague); with 200 million dead (30-50% of Europe); smallpox killing 90% of Native Americans, and the Spanish flu.

Next I discuss what we know about seasonal cycles of many infectious diseases, and then some recent papers considering whether Covid-19 may be seasonal, perhaps weakening as we head to Northern Hemisphere summer.
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Recently, with the much esteemed Stuart H. Scott–cf Stuart Gaia, twitter here.  ScientistsWarning.org, and Scientists Warning TV, on YouTube.

As usual, in very, very good company:


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Additional recent, videos:

A few more, for good measure:


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW

Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 1 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020

On March 10th a vitally important article was published online by Tomas Pueyo, and I chat about it in this video and my next two. Even if you do not understand it all, or my chat about it, please forward it to your politicians, community leaders and business leaders.

It can save a large number of lives, but action needs to be taken immediately. I can not stress this enough. The most important concept discussed is determining the true number of cases from the diagnosed number of cases, and the vital importance of social isolation in your community.

Ref:  ‘Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now‘, by Tomas Pueyo.  Link to excellent article, at Medium.com, Mar 10, 2020.
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 2 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020

Continues, first video above.


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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 3 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020

Continues, from second video above.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Posted in Catastrophe, Policy, Tragedy, Warnings, z Public Health, z Urgent | Tagged | Leave a comment

Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change

Chat on Hard-Hitting New Report: “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change”: 1 of 2 // Mar 7, 2020

A new report called “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change” came out last month, produced by a National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change, within The Center for Climate and Security.

I discuss the key points for each of the two warming scenarios:

  • in the near term with 1-2 C of warming, and
  • in the medium-long term with 2-4+ C of warming. Impact threats to society are already very high, and soon to be catastrophic, according to this hard-hitting report.

Ref: ‘A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
HOW LIKELY WARMING SCENARIOS INDICATE A CATASTROPHIC SECURITY FUTURE‘:  click here, to download full 86 page file, or read only format off of web, here.  From February 2020.
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A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change; also Coronavirus Growth Rates: Part 2 of 2 // Mar 7, 2020

I continue my chat on the dire report: A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change. I then discuss how China went from 278 cases of COVID-19 to 80,000 cases in 45 days.

If USA growth rates are similar, 401 cases today would grow to about 80,000 cases by April 21st. Growth rates in different countries can be similarly estimated, allowing you to project and prepare for what will likely happen; much variation between different countries depends on resources and actions. Some epidemiologists think 20-60% of the global population will be infected.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Posted in Biology, Catastrophe, Global Warming, News, Science, Warnings, z Urgent | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Coronavirus Effect on Global Warming and Global Warming Impact on Pandemic Risks

Coronavirus Effect on Global Warming and Global Warming Impact on Pandemic Risks: Part 1 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020

The Coronavirus has shuttered about 25% of Chinese industrial production for weeks on end. Since Chinese production and industrial activist accounts for about 1/4 of global production, 1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16 or about 6% of global production has been halted. Thus, my back of the envelope best guess has global CO2 emissions down about 6%, and globally produced aerosols down about 6% as well.

Since global dimming from aerosols is thought to be between 0.25 to 1.1 C, if we take the 1 C number as an upper limit, then the Coronavirus has resulted in global warming of about 0.06 C; with regional warming over China of about 0.25 C.
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Coronavirus and Climate Change: Intimate Connections: Part 2 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020

It is well known that as our planet rapidly warms, there are more disease vectors that affect human health. Diseases such as Zika Virus, West Nile Disease, Ebola, Malaria, etc. propagate faster and more severely in warmer regions.

Looking at history, when Europeans went to warmer lands of long established civilizations (Incas, Aztecs, and Mayans) it was their diseases that wiped out these Indigenous populations. Immune systems of higher latitude nations (Europeans) were stronger than those of people in lower latitude regions, the latter had no immunity to diseases the invaders inadvertently brought in.
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Habitat Stress Forcing Poleward Animal Migration Increases Risk of New Virus Generation: Part 3 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020

It is thought that the coronavirus originated in Wuhan’s wild animal market, perhaps moving first from bats to a small mammal and then to humans. We know that as the globe rapidly warms, many animal species are forced to migrate towards the poles in search of more optimal habitats as their existing regions become too warm and dry to continue to sustain them.

This migration causes these animals to interact more with other species, and become more stressed, weakening their immune systems and increasing the probability of them becoming virus carriers and propagators.

Ref:  ^DJI, aka Dow or “Dow Jones Industrial Average“.


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Skating with the Wolves (and Ranting about Climate Coronavirus Connections) // Mar 1, 2020

Nothing beats an early morning vigorous skate through the Quebec snow covered forests with the wolves. The ice was perfectly flat and nearly pristine along this 3 km loop in the woods at Lac-des-Loups, and the path was almost deserted. Essentially, this was the perfect place for me to film a rant video while skating, to summarize some of the key connections between abrupt climate system change and the Coronavirus, and vice-versa.

It is very clear to me that climate change increases the risk of viral and bacterial disease outbreaks around the planet, and when these outbreaks are large enough to become global pandemics they significantly affect climate. If you like my videos, please donate at http://paulbeckwith.net and Thanks for Watching!!
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Skating Seven Miles Through the Beautiful Winter Forest in Lac-des-Loups (Lake of Wolves) Quebec!) // Mar 1, 2020

Last video focused on the connections between abrupt climate system change and the connections to the coronavirus. Some people rightly complained that as I skated in a beautiful forest landscape in Quebec they just saw my face and not enough of the scenery; this video is for those people.

   

Here I focus on the skating path and the wonderful snow laden trees bordering the path as I navigate through the forest. As I post this video, I am resting from my hour long skate covering over 7 miles (12 km), which is 4 complete loops) through the forest , according to my Garmin Fenix watch, which tells me everything about my body; in fact more than anybody would ever want to know!!
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rant, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Climate Catastrophe Warning in J.P.Morgan’s, Risky Business – Climate and Macroeconomy

Climate Catastrophe Warning in J.P.Morgan’s: Risky Business: the Climate and The Macroeconomy: 1 of 2 // Feb 24, 2020

“…it is clear that the Earth is on an unsustainable trajectory. Something will have to change at some point if the human race is going to survive.”

Economic Research Report: J.P.Morgan, Jan 14, 2020 titled “Risky Business: the climate and the macroeconomy” (Google it!)’.

“The New York bank (J.P.Morgan) is one of 33 powerful financial institutions to have provided an estimated total of $1.9 Trillion to the fossil fuel sector between 2016 and 2018”:  Guardian Oct 2019, ‘Top investment banks provide billions to expand fossil fuel industry‘.

Clearly, the money and power in society is pushing us at ever faster rates towards a barren Earth
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Forward J.P.Morgan’s report: “Risky business: The Climate and the Macroeconomy” to Climate Deniers // Feb 24, 2020

I continue to chat about the J.P.Morgan Special Report, referenced above.

It is one thing for a tree-hugger or climate scientist to talk about our impending climate catastrophe, but another thing entirely for the largest investment bank funding fossil fuels to report using these dire terms.

Thus, I highly recommend you forward this video and link to politicians and your climate denier friends.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Expected to Greatly Accelerate as Southern Ocean Warms

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Expected to Greatly Accelerate as Southern Ocean Warms: Part 1 of 3 // Feb 19, 2020

An island off the northernmost tip of Antarctica reached a record breaking temperature of 20.75 C (69.35 F) for the first time, after setting a record the previous week of 18.3 C (65 F), besting the previous record of 17.5 C (63.5 F) in March 2015.

I show on Earth Nullschool how:

  • a dip in the Southern Hemisphere jet stream let warm air penetrate the Antarctica Peninsula;
  • temperatures over this region in the last 50 years have increased by 3 C (5.4 F),
  • which is 4 to 5 times the global average rise.

However it is the temperature rise in the Southern Oceans that greatly accelerates West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt.

Ref:  ‘Ancient Antarctic ice melt increased sea levels by 3+ metres – and it could happen again’, by Sherry Landow, 12 Feb, 2020, from unsw.edu.au.
Ref2: Seymour Island.
Ref3: Antarctic island hits record temperature of 20.75C, 14 Feb 2020 BBC.
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How Southern Ocean Warming Drives Substantial Ice Mass Loss from Antarctica; Part 2 of 3 // Feb 20, 2020

I continue to discuss a new paper that examines:

  • how southern ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica early in the last interglacial period (129 to 116 thousand years ago),
  • and the implications of this today.

Back then, with warmer polar temperatures, global mean sea level was +6 to 9 m (roughly 20 to 30 feet) higher than today. With Greenland ice sheet melt contributing about 2 m, and ocean thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers contributing about 1 m; that means Antarctica would have contributed between 3 to 6 m, mostly from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).

 

Ref:  Eemian.

Ref2: ‘Early Last Interglacial ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica‘, from Pnas, 11 Feb, 2020.
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How close are Southern Ocean Temperatures to a West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Point? Part 3 of 3 // Feb 20, 2020

I continue chatting on the new paper examining how southern ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica early in the last interglacial period (129 to 116 thousand years ago), and the implications for us today of accelerated melt and sea level rise.

According to the paper, an early last-interglacial warning of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) of 1.6 C relative to present day occurred; meanwhile SST temperatures bracketing coastlines of the most vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) increased as much as 1 C between 1981 and 2010. Not good; we may be very close to a tipping point.
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And, just in case you missed this recent prior series, from 11 Feb: ‘Sex-Crazed Grasshopper (Locust) Swarms Amplified by Climate Change Caused Extreme Desert Rainfall‘ and ‘Climate Induced Frenzy: Grasshopper Metamorphosis from Loner to Ravenous Super-Swarm Munchers‘.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Posted in Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, New Video, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Weather | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment