——— ———- Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.
If you prefer to directly support my press conference presentations and travel to the global COP27 climate conference in early November then please consider donating to my GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-…
Please donate here to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.
If you prefer to directly support my press conference presentations and travel to the global COP27 climate conference in early November then please consider donating to my GoFundMe, here.
Alternately, you can set up a monthly donation on my Patreon site, here.
Sincerely, Paul
An extremely important peer reviewed scientific paper came out a few months showing how Arctic Sea Ice Loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events.
We are presently experience the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) state of La Niña, for the third year in a row (very unusual), and even with this cooler variability state, we are seeing a world of grief (massive floods, massive droughts, heat waves, massive hurricanes, etc. etc.).
When we next have a powerful El Niño in a few short years then global average temperatures will be sure to skyrocket to unheard off record levels.
Thus, this paper is extremely important. As we move to a seasonally ice free state in the Arctic (I came up with the phrase “Blue Ocean Event” many years ago to describe the first year where there is no sea ice left in the Arctic by the end of the summer) we can expect an increase in the intensity of El Niño’s, and they will occur more often (with higher frequency), and the corresponding La Niña cooling periods will be less intense and happen less often.
I show graphs of global temperature rise overlayed with various ENSO indices, and clearly strong El Niño’s happening more often will be highly destructive to human societies and cause great risk to our global food supplies.
Bottom Line: Elevator Points:
1) Present Arctic Sea Ice Loss has not yet significantly changed the occurrence of strong El Niño’s
2) As Arctic Sea Ice Loss Continues and the Arctic becomes seasonally free (most peer reviewed papers say by 2040) the frequency of strong El Niño events increases by between about 1/3 and 1/2 (actually by between 37% and 48% according to two different climate models (CCSM4 Community Climate System Modelversion 4; and CESM1.2: Climate Earth System Modelversion 1.2)
Basically, buckle your seatbelts.
Abrupt Climate System Change is worsening quickly, and the worsening will continue to accelerate and take mighty highly-nonlinear exponential leaps in severity, frequency, and consequences to us humans, let alone to all of Earth’s Flora and Fauna.
Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.
If you prefer to directly support my press conference presentations and travel to the global COP27 climate conference in early November then please consider donating to my GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-…
Ref: Arctic sea-ice loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Zhu Zhu, Radley M. Horton, Yongyun Hu & Shang-Ping Xie Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 4952 (2022) Cite this article. Published: 23 August 2022
Abstract Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially and is projected to reach a seasonally ice-free state in the coming decades. Little is known about whether dwindling Arctic sea ice is capable of influencing the occurrence of strong El Niño, a prominent mode of climate variability with global impacts. Based on time slice coupled model experiments, here we show that no significant change in the occurrence of strong El Niño is found in response to moderate Arctic sea-ice loss that is consistent with satellite observations to date. However, as the ice loss continues and the Arctic becomes seasonally ice-free, the frequency of strong El Niño events increases by more than one third, as defined by gradient-based indices that remove mean tropical Pacific warming induced by the seasonally ice-free Arctic. By comparing our time slice experiments with greenhouse warming experiments, we conclude that at least 37–48% of the increase of strong El Niño near the end of the 21st century is associated specifically with Arctic sea-ice loss. Further separation of Arctic sea-ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing only experiments implies that the seasonally ice-free Arctic might play a key role in driving significantly more frequent strong El Niño events.
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Flowers blooming in the north of Ireland. It’s nearly November. So much heat in the system. The climate is changing before our eyes. The first generation to ever witness environmental change at this rate. Maybe the last. pic.twitter.com/vhTAt7tloK
In this video, I discuss evidence that clearly shows there was large methane clathrate thaw on continental shelves off Africa during the Eeemian Interglacial around 125-126,000 years ago.
The evidence [1] is in the marine core sediment layers on the continental shelf and just outside the shelf in the water column down to 1800 m depths. The sediment core record evidence, using various dating proxies, various types of biologically derived organic proxies, and isotopic analysis give us proof for large methane emission into the water column and oxidation, large atmospheric methane concentrations, and warning of the intermediate water layers by 6.8 C at 700 meters depth (from about 7 degrees C to about 14 degrees C). This warming physically enters deep into the marine sediments destabilizing the methane clathrates, by melting the ice cage and releasing methane gas.
As mentioned in the previous video, in the North Atlantic the subsurface water at 150 meter depth of Newfoundland warmed from about 7 degrees C by between 8 and 12 degrees C, destabilizing the ice sheets and glaciers causing tremendous calving as measured by Ice Rafted Debris (IRD) in Heinrich Events.
In this video, the peer recent reviewed scientific paper shows that intermediate depth water off Africa at 700 meter depth warmed from 7 degrees C by about 6.8 degrees C, destabilizing methane clathrates within the sediment.
Combined, these papers are bad news for present day humanity.
Importance for Present Day Climate System:
1) Clearly, with AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) the intermediate water will warm significantly, by at least 7 degrees C in both the North Atlantic and equatorial East Atlantic (likely also at many other places; two studies were just scratching the surface).
2) In the North Atlantic, we can expect this warming to greatly destabilize Greenland Ice Sheets and Glaciers grounded below sea level.
3) In the equatorial East Atlantic, this warming destabilized methane sediments within the sea floor sediments, and caused massive outbursts of methane changing global climate.
4) Although not discussed here, I recall a paper from a few years ago by Hansen et. al (and other papers) talking about how intermediate water near Antarctica was warming quickly. We know that Antarctica Ice melt is rapidly accelerating, with a doubling period of about 7 years (as is Greenland Ice melt). Clearly, Greenland Ice is melting from below (by warm ocean water) and on top (by warm air temperatures). However Antarctica is not melting a lot on top (still too cold) so therefore HAS to be melting more and more from below, from warming ocean water.
Sincerely, Paul
Ref 1: Evidence for massive methane hydrate destabilization during the penultimate interglacial warming. Link, here. Schneider, Yu, Kylander-Clark. Edited by Mark Thiemens, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; received February 3, 2022; accepted July 2, 2022. August 22, 2022 ———– ———–
As individuals, and as a society, our track record on assessing risk and responding to reduce risk appropriately is dismal.
There are numerous examples of this inadequacy, but one of the worst is our lack of understanding the grave risks from abrupt climate system change in time to enact plans to mitigate and save our societies and ourselves, and the plants and animals that we occupy this planet with.
Risk is generally determined by multiplying the probability or likelihood of something happening with the impact or consequences to us if that something actually happens.
Our risk assessment is horribly bad when the probability is very low and the impacts are very huge, so the product (risk) is significant, but mathematically the variance or uncertainty is extremely high. When the impacts are very severe and negative, we tend to ignore them and convince ourselves that they will never happen. This is a very dangerous path to proceed on, and eventually it comes along “unexpectedly” and caused us severe difficulties.
What could be more devastating than a loss of civilized society with massive mortality and morbidity in a small number of countries cascading into a loss of ordered society in more and more countries until it eventually cascades into all global societies?
Any scientific study that tries to better understand how we as individuals or the collective we (society) think about risks as we live through our life cycles is useful to help us get a better handle on how we can address risks logically and smartly rather than ignore them by sticking our heads into the sand.
Please donate at here, et to support my research and videos. ———- ———–
To support my preparation, travel, and attendance at the global climate conference COP27 please consider reading more details here. If you wish to specifically support my upcoming trip to the UNFCCC COP27 climate conference to present at daily news conferences, here is my GoFund Me page: Help Paul Go to COP27 – UN Climate Conference. ———- ———
OOPS. Global Dimming is Worse than we thought // Oct 8, 2022
I am exchanging corny physics jokes with a good friend of mine. My last contribution was:
Q: I didn’t realize that Einstein was a real person. A: I always thought that he was a theoretical physicist.
His last contributions were:
Q: Why does a burger have less energy than a steak? A: Because it’s in its ground state.
Q: What’s the most terrifying word in nuclear physics? A:Oops.
Thus, I just had to use the word Oops to lead off my title to this video!!
I chat about a brand spanking new peer reviewed paper that determines the aerosol-cloud radiative effect (global dimming) is much larger than we thought; in fact over 40% worse.
If this finding pans out (remember, this is only one paper, and needs to be confirmed with many studies) then it means:
Climate models are too conservative
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is more sensitive than we thought
Warming will accelerate much more as we reduce aerosols from emissions
on the positive side, MCB (Marine Cloud Brightening) will be far more effective than we thought. ——— ———-
This is how the world ends, not with a bang or a whimper, but with rising GHG's choking the life out of our once glorious planet …
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here. ———- ———
In order to save the planet, all we need is for every human on Earth to make sacrifices, change their behavior and attitude, consume less, use less electricity, cars, planes, recycle, have less babies, care about others – and all in the same time. Totally Doable, right?
I’m back. My sabbatical to renovate my 111 year old house, relax, recharge my batteries, and fall in love with my puppy has reached its conclusion. The next five weeks will be extremely busy for me with new climate videos, new analysis, and new insights into our rapid climate system change, as I prepare for multiple presentations at COP27 in Egypt in early November.
The story on this years hurricane season seems to be “In with a whimper, and out with a bang”. In rapid succession, Typhoon Nora devastated the Philippines and Vietnam, Hurricane Fiona savaged Canada’s Maritime provinces, and Hurricane Ian trashed parts of Florida.
I chat about the climate change factors that are leading to much more powerful hurricanes/ typhoons/ cyclones, much more rapid storm intensification, and slower, even stalled transit leading to much larger rainfalls, storm surges, storm durations, and greater catastrophic damages.
I often wonder how much longer we can rebuild for. Eventually, with more and more back to back storms, often a place has not even recovered from a climate catastrophe in our climate casino, before it is hit again. Surely, in the not-too-far future we will not have any resources (money or materials or desire) to rebuild and we will see a rapid retreat from coastlines.
If you wish to specifically support my upcoming trip to the UNFCCC COP27 climate conference to present at daily news conferences, here is my GoFund Me page: Help Paul Go to COP27 – UN Climate Conference. ——— ———-
Look at the dots. It's very clear. The last El Nino in 2015 took Earth to a new stage of warming. The heat never fell back to 2014 levels. The jump up in global temperature at the next El Nino will take Earth to the next stage of global warming. This will be a much uglier stage pic.twitter.com/niQdtdgYqk
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here. ———- ———
ICYMI – some of last month's striking climate data visualizations…
+ Record high August temperatures in the northern mid-latitudes + 10th lowest annual minimum Arctic sea ice extent + Record hot August for the Northern Hemisphere + Near-record high levels of methane (CH₄) pic.twitter.com/dSE12LDxSR
The Dumbing Down of Society: Possible Reasons for the Global Reduction in IQ (Intelligence Quotient)
Jul 29, 2022
From about 1900 to 1975 there was an increase in the IQ (Intelligence Quotient) of people of roughly 3 IQ points per decade. Measured in many different countries across the various population demographics, this apparently significant gain in human intelligence was known as Flynn’s Law.
There was a reversal of this trend around 1975. A peer reviewed study from Norway, published just a few years ago, shows that people’s average IQ is dropping about 7 points per generation now. If we assume a generation is about 25 years, the present drop rate is roughly the same magnitude as the previous gain rate up to 1975, a sharp reversal of Flynn’s Law.
I chat about the suspected reasons for this according to the intelligence experts, including a negative effect from particulate air pollution. I propose that the actual cause may be due to CO2 levels in the atmosphere rising from a level of 320 ppm to 420 ppm over the last 4 to 5 decades.
On the Extremely High Risk of Societal Collapse from Solar Storm Coronal Mass Ejection
Jul 25, 2022
We worry about societal collapse from Abrupt Climate System Change Mayhem that is accelerating in magnitude and frequency, and yet we tend to overlook other risks.
In 1859 an enormous Solar Storm erupted from a sunspot, causing a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that hit the Earth. Fortunately at that time, there was not a lot of electronics on the Earth to fry. If that same event happened today, it would likely knock out most of our electronic systems, including power grids, transportation infrastructure, the vast global internet, water and sewage systems, and everything else relying on electricity.
We had a near miss in 2012, when the Sun produced such a high magnitude event, but fortunately it missed the Earth by a mere 9 days. An extremely close call, that did not wake us up to the huge risks. The most recent peer-reviewed science forecasts that such an event could occur and strike Earth with a probability of up to 12% per decade.
This risk is much higher than you likely thought, even if you were aware of the nature of these Solar Storm CME events. Why do I produce a video on this topic now?
1) A software update by a communications company in Canada glitched and knocked out internet for a day for millions of Canadians, and some unlucky people had no internet for up to 4 days. This prompted mainstream media articles on system vulnerabilities. 2) A recent Solar Storm occurred about a week ago. 3) The risk of a catastrophic event is as high as 12% per decade. 4) In 2012 we (the Earth) had a close shave, missing catastrophic damage by 9 days. 5) Solar activity is increasing, so the risks of a catastrophic event are increasing over the next few decades. 6) Ice core records indicate that over the last 150 years we have had 42 events, of which 6 were major.
The record-breaking heat wave in Britain last week, bringing temperatures as high as 104.5 degrees Fahrenheit, would have been “extremely unlikely” without the influence of human-caused climate change, a new report has found. https://t.co/AFWa6D9HgX
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here. ———- ———
9” of rain in 12 hours in Hazard, KY is simply in its own Universe. To say it’s an expected 1-in-1000 year event, in a 20th century climate, is an understatement. But with climate change, what was almost impossible then is now not only possible, it’s probable. pic.twitter.com/yFV6PIZBIf
About a year ago Greenland made worldwide jarring climate news as it rained for the first time ever on the summit at an elevation of almost 2 miles.
This unprecedented rain event occurred during a very powerful atmospheric river (AR) event, that brought a tremendous amount of heat and moisture to the highest regions of the massive ice sheet. These ARs are happening more often with abrupt climate system change, and in previous videos I have discussed their physics, and their consequences, including the British Columbia flooding, and the ARs reaching Antarctica causing massive ice melt at the South Pole.
Most main-stream glaciologists and other scientists think that it will take many decades to centuries to get massive ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica.
I firmly believe that as the frequency, severity, and duration of Atmospheric River (ARs) that hit Greenland and Antarctica continue to increase, the melt rates of Greenland and Antarctica will spike abruptly upward, and raise sea levels in a highly nonlinear, abrupt fashion.
Please donate here to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system change, and teach you what I know about the latest science in easily understood lay-person language. I truly believe that much joy in life comes from continuous learning and teaching, and I am sure that I learn as much from researching, studying, and filming these videos as you may learn from watching them. ———- ———–
Meanwhile, selected temperature anomalies > Shanghai and Chongqing, China, hit earliest 40°C in their history > Ourense, Spain at record 43.3°C > Kamchatka, Russia record at 33.1°C > 50°C in Death Valley, USA > 37.8°C in Paraguay > 45°C in Portugal#climate crisis? What crisis? pic.twitter.com/8E50ooowYv
Within the Pentagon and US Department of Defence Agencies, there is an ongoing quest to automate conflict, militarize data, and predict the future.
A new book (2022) called “War Virtually” by Anthropologist Roberto J. Gonzalez delves into this mostly secretive quest.
I was wondering whether the “predict the future” part examined abrupt climate system change as the core for these predictions, and was very surprised to find out that climate was hardly considered, if at all.
I discuss the details of what is actually considered, and really wonder what is going on and why climate change is hardly even mentioned.
As you probably already know, I always have multiple books on the go. As well as War Virtually, I highly recommend the fiction by Clive Cussler called “Arctic Drift” published in 2008; it is chock full of Arctic and Canadian settings, and covers Arctic sea ice and science quite well. I also recommend Erik Larson’s 2020 non-fiction called “The Splendid and the Vile” covering Sir Winston Churchill WWII leadership and the darkest days for Britain in 1939 and 1940 as they stood alone and withstood the German Blitzkrieg and Luftwaffe military might. Another great read, and great insights into the true leadership of Churchill. Very sad that we have no compatible leadership in any country on tackling abrupt climate system change. ———- ———–
Jul 11, 2022
To get a better handle on understanding abrupt climate system change, and how it makes out lives much more unpredictable, within the climate casino, understanding the overall Earth Energy budget and Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is vital.
In fact, 93% of the EEI is going into the oceans and heating them. Only about 3% of EEI is melting ice in glaciers on mountains and Greenland and Antarctica. Meanwhile about 4% is heating the land and melting the permafrost, and less than 1% is going into the atmosphere. This means that less than 1% is casing the in-your-face global warming that most of us human landlubbers are experiencing.
We have all seen the graphs of increases in GMST (Global Mean Surface Temperature) and discuss the 1.5 C and 2 C numbers that are debated as-nauseous at yearly climate conferences. Yet, this consequence is only due to less than 1% of the EEI.
Clearly, we need to understand the overall energy flows, energy reservoirs, and changes in the overall Earth System in order to figure out what is really happening, and evaluate properly measures to mitigate the problem.
In this video I focus mostly on a brand new peer reviewed paper published one week ago called “A perspective on climate change from Earth’s Energy Imbalance”.
Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change. ———- ———–
In #ClimateCrisis news 1 Thousands evacuating Sydney floods 2 Millions remain displaced by floods in Assam, India 3 Italy’s drought worsens, salty sea creeps into Po river 4 Eastern Africa drought worst in recorded history, 16.7m suffer food insecurity 5 Chilean lake vanishes pic.twitter.com/5DKQ826aly
Please donate here to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system change, and teach you what I know about the latest science in easily understood lay-person language. I truly believe that much joy in life comes from continuous learning and teaching, and I am sure that I learn as much from researching, studying, and filming these videos as you may learn from watching them. ———- ———–
Climate change affects all of us. Temperature change by country – 1880 – 2021. Notice a pattern?
'Crisis by 2040'. So many people I meet think the climate crisis is something that will hit in 100 years time. Not true. It's already killing people, and by the laws off physics, it can only get worse. It's going to affect all of us. https://t.co/ziUbPaEQzj
In this video I delve into the details of the hydroxyl radical (OH*). This extremely reactive molecule is known as the “detergent of the atmosphere” and is the major scrubber of methane in the atmosphere.
Methane levels in the atmosphere are rapidly rising, with 2020 and 2021 being record setting years, by far. Since the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of methane is 34x that of CO2 on a 100 year timescale, a huge 86x on a 20 year timescale, and a whopping 150x to 200x on a year or two timescale, the record rise in methane is contributing enormously to abrupt climate system change.
Thus, knowing the details of the OH* molecule in the atmospheric are crucial for figuring out what to do to try and mitigate the atmospheric methane.
Short wavelength solar radiation in the Ultraviolet (UV; wavelength shorter than about 336 nm) has enough energy to break apart the ozone molecule into an O ion and an oxygen molecule. The extremely reactive O singlet reacts with water in the atmosphere to produce the OH. Thus, the concentration of OHis very high in the tropics which have lots of penetrating UV (low stratospheric ozone) and large water vapour concentrations (very hot Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) with lots of evaporation).
Since methane is rapidly rising, people thought that OH* would be depleted, but fortunately the OH* production (from ozone breakdown, water vapour reactions, reactions with NOx, widening of the Hadley Cell by between 0.5 to 1.0 degrees latitude per decade) are almost cancelling out the OH* loss from methane destruction chemical reactions. Some good news for a change; hopefully it continues.
The ARCTIC CARBON BOMB is real, Nature Journal 2021, NOAA Arctic Report Card 2019. Permafrost has been found to be emitting methane, CO2 and nitrous oxide for the past 10 years, now in large amounts, at 1C global warming. pic.twitter.com/8FvAJAaFvy
Please donate here to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system change, and teach you what I know about the latest science in easily understood lay-person language. I truly believe that much joy in life comes from continuous learning and teaching, and I am sure that I learn as much from researching, studying, and filming these videos as you may learn from watching them. ———- ———–
It's already so incredibly bad, everyone, and this at just 1.3°C of mean global heating. It's all caused by the fossil fuel industry, and it is irreversible. It's time to end fossil fuels #EmergencyModehttps://t.co/QJcTVYMH93
The ocean is a critical ally in efforts to address the climate emergency. It generates 50% of the oxygen we need & absorbs 25% of all carbon dioxide emissions.
Jet Stream Shift 17 degrees Southward to Greenland
Summary
Well known and respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos of sometimes daunting subjects, especially in climate system science, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences at YouTube.
Frequently called upon for commentary by fellow educators, activists, and public. Physicist, Engineer, and part-time professor at the University of Ottawa. His primary interest is joining-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change to determine where we are heading, and how fast, and what it all means for us and our amazing planet.
Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist 