Tipping Points in Permafrost Systems: Impact of Local Tipping Points

Tipping Points in Permafrost Systems: Impact of Local Tipping Points // 1/28/23

As permafrost rapidly thaws in northern regions from abrupt climate system change caused Arctic Temperature Amplification, we reach local tipping points that greatly accelerate warming and more permafrost thawing.

This video discusses recent science examining these localized tipping points.

Please donate here to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change and bring you the most recent cutting edge scientific findings on climate change in a jargon free, easily digestible video format.
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If we lose the Arctic, we lose the world: COP27 Science Talks from the Cryosphere Pavillion / 1/27/2023

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Here are a series of cutting edge scientific topics on the massive changes occurring in the Arctic region.
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Reducing Black Carbon (BC) and Methane Emissions: COP27 scientific presentations / 1/26/2023

Many scientists think that to rapidly chip away at the radiative forcing warming the planet, it would be very beneficial to reduce black carbon (BC) emissions and methane emissions.

While attending some scientific presentations on cutting edge research in this field at COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt these very topics were discussed in detail, and I thought it very worthwhile to video record them and present them here on my channel.

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Summary of Recent Work Not Appearing on My Channel

Paul Beckwith: Summary of my recent work that does not appear here on my own YouTube channel

I am often on many videos, above and beyond my own YouTube channel here. In fact, when I attend conferences such as COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt and COP15-CBD (Conference on Biodiversity) in Montreal, Canada, most of my work is recorded on videos that other people film, and post on their respective channels, and I don’t repost them on my own channel (I usually have more than enough of my own videos to post)!!

People often ask me to summarize my work “outside” this channel so that they can follow me for work I do outside of my own channel. In this video here, I attempt to do exactly that.

Essentially every week, Climate Emergency Forum films a video on a cutting edge climate topic with regulars Regina Valdez, Peter Carter, and myself, plus we often have a guest. The brains and brawn behind the organization, operation, and video editing and production are Charles Gregoire and Heidi Brault. When we attended COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh we filmed numerous press conferences (every other day for two weeks) plus individual “roving” style interview as well. These videos are very high production quality, and well worth watching. Please follow the Twitter feed @ClimateEForum and the website http://climate emergency forum.org and the YouTube channel @ClimateEmergencyForum to see our groups work.

I also work with the group Facing Future, who also had many press conferences at COP27; essentially every other day. The excellent work of this fantastic group of dedicated, highly motivated people can be found at the website http://facingfuture.earth and on the YouTube channel @FacingFuture

A long-time friend of mine is Metta Spencer in Toronto; she is a bundle of energy at her spry young age of 94 years old. She produces weekly videos on her Saving the Planet video channel, and got me to join the Pugwash Group. She is very active in deeply questioning scientists, engineers, and others to find the most promising climate solutions that are scalable. I am usually on her program a few times per month. Please follow her excellent YouTube video channel @ToSaveTheWorld that I always love appearing on as much as possible.

Another group whose videos I have frequently appeared on is the World Talent Economy Forum, run by Sharif Uddin Ahmed Rana who is based in Bangladesh. Up until a few months ago, I appeared as a panelist on a few shows per week, covering a huge variety of interesting current topics. I plan on restarting my appearances on this great forum starting next week. Please check out this groups website at http://wteforum.org and YouTube channel at WTE Forum @wteforum1212

All of the above groups are those that I regularly appear on. In addition, there are many other great organizations (groups) that I am a special guest on. I also appear often on mainstream media TV, radio stations, and I endeavour to post links on Social Media to.

As far as Social Media goes, apart from my website http://PaulBeckwith.net and YouTube channel @PaulHBeckwith I am most active on Twitter @PaulHBeckwith and Facebook Paul.beckwith.9 and LinkedIn and Instagram.

I am planning on using Reddit this year, as well as joining Mastodon, Telegraph, etc. etc. soon to further the reach of my abrupt climate system change work this year.

Please donate here to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system change. If you prefer Patreon, my account is http://Patreon.con/PaulBeckwith and also please remember to check out all the other forums where I appear regularly, but don’t get posted on my own YouTube channel!!

[
Editor, dk: Paul as a rule, does not like to share or, as it were eschews the broadcast of social media performance stats, but I see no harm in doing this as a ‘one off’ or every four years, as it were. This is part of where your hard earned and deeply valued Donations, go. Tirelessly and ceaselessly spreading the word.

Youtube 6.44m views, 25,300 followers–in 11.5 years
(BTW: 254 followers PER view is a very good figure–aka yield or conversion)
Twitter followers: 24,500
WordPress 658,000 views, 306,000 visitors cumulative–6.5 years
(2.2 page visits per visitor).
]

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El Niño likely to start mid-2023 and cause global average temperatures to exceed 1.5C in 2024

When the next El Niño occurs, it seems pretty obvious that we will likely set the highest global average temperature ever. In this video I chat about how this is likely to occur in the next couple of years.

According to NOAA and others, by mid-2003 we will likely start to transition from our weakening La Niña state to neutral and then to an El Niño, models suggest that by next Fall odds are about even that we will be in an El Niño state, and 2023 global average temperature is likely to compete with the record levels set in 2016. Hold on to your hats. Since the atmospheric warming lags the ocean temperature warming by about 3-4 months, this means that 2024 will likely be the warmest year yet by far, in fact temperatures will possibly exceed 1.5 C for the entire year.

My Part I video was abruptly cut off by my phone alarm, so I continued my discussions with Part II.

How strong will this El Niño be? Even a weak one is likely to push global average temperatures to record levels; while a super-El Nino (like in 2015-2016 and also 1998) will surely blow away the previous global average temperature records. When this happens, we will really wonder about how humanity can survive, let alone thrive with these new extremes in weather and climate.

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Part 2: Next El Niño likely to turbocharge global temperature records into exceeding 1.5C in 2024

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The excellent sustained work of Jim McHenry, here (214): an here (215).

Climate Change Emergency Protest #214 “A Reckoning “ January 14, 2023 Gettysburg Pa USA

Climate Change Emergency Protest #215 “Unsustainable” January 19, 2023, Gettysburg, PA USA
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Broken Jet Stream Cause of Recent Flash Freeze, Big Blizzard, then Rapid Melt in North American

I coined the phrase “weather whiplashing” many years ago to describe the wrenching changes that often occur now due to abrupt climate system change.

The recent weather in North America is a perfect example of this phenomena. Shortly before Christmas, there were warm temperatures and rainfall, followed by a flash freeze, high winds, and heavy snowfall, leading to blizzard conditions in many places. Buffalo, NY and the Fort Erie region were particularly hit hard by the cold front picking up moisture from the warmer than normal Great Lakes causing heavy lake effect snowfalls on the eastern shoreline regions of the lakes. The long duration high winds pushed lake water eastward, causing a seiche whereby water levels on western shorelines dropped 7 feet, and the water piling up on eastern shorelines raised water levels over 10 feet, which combined with 30 foot plus waves to damage coastal properties.

A week later, there was a massive melt of this snow, as temperatures went well over freezing and caused rapid melt and flooding.

Welcome to the turbocharged weather wilding phenomena that is directly caused by abrupt climate system change.

Please donate here, to support my research and videos teaching you all about abrupt climate system change and it’s consequences.
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Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.

If you prefer to directly support my press conference presentations and recent travel to the global COP27 climate conference in last month then please consider donating to my GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-…

Alternately, you can set up a monthly donation on my Patreon site: https://www.patreon.com/paulbeckwith

Sincerely, Paul

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The Arctic Ocean and Mid-Latitude Connections: Is Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Making the Weather Worse?

12/06/22

Answer to title question? YES!!

Of course, most social media savvy people, and definitely my followers all know that Arctic temperature amplification is making the jet streams slow down, and become wavier, greatly increasing the frequency, severity, and duration of extreme weather events. Thus, loss of Arctic sea ice, which greatly increases Arctic amplification, is definitely making mid-latitude weather worse.

It always takes the detailed science a while to catch up, even with what seems to be obvious things.


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Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.

If you prefer to directly support my press conference presentations and recent travel to the global COP27 climate conference in last month then please consider donating to my GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-…

Alternately, you can set up a monthly donation on my Patreon site: https://www.patreon.com/paulbeckwith

Sincerely, Paul

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COPPING OUT Of Climate Action

Posted on November 23, 2022, by Radio Ecoshock
From Johannesburg, Professor Patrick Bond exposes the Just Transition and dirty deeds done. Two reports from COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh Egypt, Daphne Wysham and Paul Beckwith call in. Daphne, former host of Earthbeat Radio, now heads methaneaction.org. Paul is a Canadian climate scientist with experience in COP conferences and communication.

link to audio, here (lo-fi), or CD quality replay, here.

PAUL BECKWITH FROM COP27 EGYPT
From the COP27 climate conference in Sharm El-Sheikh Egypt, Paul Beckwith reports in. Paul is a Canadian climate system scientist and the largest single science video provider on YouTube. He posted some cool YouTube video tours of COP and places like the Glaciology Pavilion.

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Heartfelt Chat by Glaciologist on “The Jubilee Expedition” in Svalbard 2022, documents dead glacier

Nov 9, 2022

An excellent talk on how the glaciers, surrounding sea ice, and island of Svalbard is changing.

Svalbard is warming 7 times faster than the global atmospheric temperature, and the glaciers are rapidly melting.

The expedition documented a dead glacier (completely gone) and a vanished lake (from a collapsing glacier).

Well worth a watch.
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Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.

If you prefer to directly support my press conference presentations and travel to the global COP27 climate conference in early November then please consider donating to my GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-…

Alternately, you can set up a monthly donation on my Patreon site: https://www.patreon.com/paulbeckwith

Sincerely,
Paul

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Why Arctic Sea Ice Loss Will Cause Stronger More Frequent El Niño’s

10/29/022

Please donate here to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.

If you prefer to directly support my press conference presentations and travel to the global COP27 climate conference in early November then please consider donating to my GoFundMe, here.

Alternately, you can set up a monthly donation on my Patreon site, here.

Sincerely,
Paul

An extremely important peer reviewed scientific paper came out a few months showing how Arctic Sea Ice Loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events.

We are presently experience the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) state of La Niña, for the third year in a row (very unusual), and even with this cooler variability state, we are seeing a world of grief (massive floods, massive droughts, heat waves, massive hurricanes, etc. etc.).

When we next have a powerful El Niño in a few short years then global average temperatures will be sure to skyrocket to unheard off record levels.

Thus, this paper is extremely important. As we move to a seasonally ice free state in the Arctic (I came up with the phrase “Blue Ocean Event” many years ago to describe the first year where there is no sea ice left in the Arctic by the end of the summer) we can expect an increase in the intensity of El Niño’s, and they will occur more often (with higher frequency), and the corresponding La Niña cooling periods will be less intense and happen less often.

I show graphs of global temperature rise overlayed with various ENSO indices, and clearly strong El Niño’s happening more often will be highly destructive to human societies and cause great risk to our global food supplies.

Bottom Line: Elevator Points:

1) Present Arctic Sea Ice Loss has not yet significantly changed the occurrence of strong El Niño’s

2) As Arctic Sea Ice Loss Continues and the Arctic becomes seasonally free (most peer reviewed papers say by 2040) the frequency of strong El Niño events increases by between about 1/3 and 1/2 (actually by between 37% and 48% according to two different climate models (CCSM4 Community Climate System Model version 4; and CESM1.2: Climate Earth System Model version 1.2)

Basically, buckle your seatbelts.

Abrupt Climate System Change is worsening quickly, and the worsening will continue to accelerate and take mighty highly-nonlinear exponential leaps in severity, frequency, and consequences to us humans, let alone to all of Earth’s Flora and Fauna.

Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.

If you prefer to directly support my press conference presentations and travel to the global COP27 climate conference in early November then please consider donating to my GoFundMe: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-paul-…

Alternately, you can set up a monthly donation on my Patreon site: https://www.patreon.com/paulbeckwith

Sincerely,
Paul

Ref: Arctic sea-ice loss is projected to lead to more frequent strong El Niño events
Jiping Liu, Mirong Song, Zhu Zhu, Radley M. Horton, Yongyun Hu & Shang-Ping Xie
Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 4952 (2022) Cite this article. Published: 23 August 2022

Abstract
Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially and is projected to reach a seasonally ice-free state in the coming decades. Little is known about whether dwindling Arctic sea ice is capable of influencing the occurrence of strong El Niño, a prominent mode of climate variability with global impacts. Based on time slice coupled model experiments, here we show that no significant change in the occurrence of strong El Niño is found in response to moderate Arctic sea-ice loss that is consistent with satellite observations to date. However, as the ice loss continues and the Arctic becomes seasonally ice-free, the frequency of strong El Niño events increases by more than one third, as defined by gradient-based indices that remove mean tropical Pacific warming induced by the seasonally ice-free Arctic. By comparing our time slice experiments with greenhouse warming experiments, we conclude that at least 37–48% of the increase of strong El Niño near the end of the 21st century is associated specifically with Arctic sea-ice loss. Further separation of Arctic sea-ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing only experiments implies that the seasonally ice-free Arctic might play a key role in driving significantly more frequent strong El Niño events.


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Massive Methane Hydrate Destabilization in the Past with Profound Implications for Today’s Climate

Oct 22, 2022

In the last video from October 21st, (‘AMOC Slowdown causing Rapid Warming of Subsurface North Atlantic causing Rapid Loss of Greenland Ice‘) I chatted about how huge subsea warming occurred at 150 meters depth in the North Atlantic Ocean and triggered Heinrich Events.

In this video, I discuss evidence that clearly shows there was large methane clathrate thaw on continental shelves off Africa during the Eeemian Interglacial around 125-126,000 years ago.

The evidence [1] is in the marine core sediment layers on the continental shelf and just outside the shelf in the water column down to 1800 m depths. The sediment core record evidence, using various dating proxies, various types of biologically derived organic proxies, and isotopic analysis give us proof for large methane emission into the water column and oxidation, large atmospheric methane concentrations, and warning of the intermediate water layers by 6.8 C at 700 meters depth (from about 7 degrees C to about 14 degrees C). This warming physically enters deep into the marine sediments destabilizing the methane clathrates, by melting the ice cage and releasing methane gas.

As mentioned in the previous video, in the North Atlantic the subsurface water at 150 meter depth of Newfoundland warmed from about 7 degrees C by between 8 and 12 degrees C, destabilizing the ice sheets and glaciers causing tremendous calving as measured by Ice Rafted Debris (IRD) in Heinrich Events.

In this video, the peer recent reviewed scientific paper shows that intermediate depth water off Africa at 700 meter depth warmed from 7 degrees C by about 6.8 degrees C, destabilizing methane clathrates within the sediment.

Combined, these papers are bad news for present day humanity.

Importance for Present Day Climate System:

1) Clearly, with AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) the intermediate water will warm significantly, by at least 7 degrees C in both the North Atlantic and equatorial East Atlantic (likely also at many other places; two studies were just scratching the surface).

2) In the North Atlantic, we can expect this warming to greatly destabilize Greenland Ice Sheets and Glaciers grounded below sea level.

3) In the equatorial East Atlantic, this warming destabilized methane sediments within the sea floor sediments, and caused massive outbursts of methane changing global climate.

4) Although not discussed here, I recall a paper from a few years ago by Hansen et. al (and other papers) talking about how intermediate water near Antarctica was warming quickly. We know that Antarctica Ice melt is rapidly accelerating, with a doubling period of about 7 years (as is Greenland Ice melt). Clearly, Greenland Ice is melting from below (by warm ocean water) and on top (by warm air temperatures). However Antarctica is not melting a lot on top (still too cold) so therefore HAS to be melting more and more from below, from warming ocean water.

Sincerely,
Paul

Ref 1: Evidence for massive methane hydrate destabilization during the penultimate interglacial warming. Link, here. Schneider, Yu, Kylander-Clark. Edited by Mark Thiemens, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA; received February 3, 2022; accepted July 2, 2022. August 22, 2022
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Please donate here to support my research and videos on the cutting edge science of abrupt climate system change.

If you prefer to directly support my press conference

presentations and travel to the global COP27 climate conference in early November then please consider donating to my GoFundMe page, ‘Help Paul Go to COP27 – UN Climate Conference‘ here.

Alternately, you can set up a monthly donation on my Patreon site, here.

Sincerely,
Paul
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Metta Spencer, To Save The World, Hudson Bay Ice, Paul with Dr. Peter Wadhams, and Dr. Stephen Salter.

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How do Individuals and Society think about RISK

Oct 6, 2022

As individuals, and as a society, our track record on assessing risk and responding to reduce risk appropriately is dismal.

There are numerous examples of this inadequacy, but one of the worst is our lack of understanding the grave risks from abrupt climate system change in time to enact plans to mitigate and save our societies and ourselves, and the plants and animals that we occupy this planet with.

Risk is generally determined by multiplying the probability or likelihood of something happening with the impact or consequences to us if that something actually happens.

Our risk assessment is horribly bad when the probability is very low and the impacts are very huge, so the product (risk) is significant, but mathematically the variance or uncertainty is extremely high. When the impacts are very severe and negative, we tend to ignore them and convince ourselves that they will never happen. This is a very dangerous path to proceed on, and eventually it comes along “unexpectedly” and caused us severe difficulties.

What could be more devastating than a loss of civilized society with massive mortality and morbidity in a small number of countries cascading into a loss of ordered society in more and more countries until it eventually cascades into all global societies?

Any scientific study that tries to better understand how we as individuals or the collective we (society) think about risks as we live through our life cycles is useful to help us get a better handle on how we can address risks logically and smartly rather than ignore them by sticking our heads into the sand.

Please donate at here, et to support my research and videos.
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To support my preparation, travel, and attendance at the global climate conference COP27 please consider reading more details here. If you wish to specifically support my upcoming trip to the UNFCCC COP27 climate conference to present at daily news conferences, here is my GoFund Me page: Help Paul Go to COP27 – UN Climate Conference.
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OOPS. Global Dimming is Worse than we thought // Oct 8, 2022

I am exchanging corny physics jokes with a good friend of mine. My last contribution was:

Q: I didn’t realize that Einstein was a real person.
A: I always thought that he was a theoretical physicist.

His last contributions were:

Q: Why does a burger have less energy than a steak?
A: Because it’s in its ground state.

Q: What’s the most terrifying word in nuclear physics?
A:Oops.

Thus, I just had to use the word Oops to lead off my title to this video!!

I chat about a brand spanking new peer reviewed paper that determines the aerosol-cloud radiative effect (global dimming) is much larger than we thought; in fact over 40% worse.

If this finding pans out (remember, this is only one paper, and needs to be confirmed with many studies) then it means:

Climate models are too conservative

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is more sensitive than we thought

Warming will accelerate much more as we reduce aerosols from emissions

on the positive side, MCB (Marine Cloud Brightening) will be far more effective than we thought.
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Hurricanes Wreaking Havoc in our Climate Fuelled World

I’m back. My sabbatical to renovate my 111 year old house, relax, recharge my batteries, and fall in love with my puppy has reached its conclusion. The next five weeks will be extremely busy for me with new climate videos, new analysis, and new insights into our rapid climate system change, as I prepare for multiple presentations at COP27 in Egypt in early November.

The story on this years hurricane season seems to be “In with a whimper, and out with a bang”. In rapid succession, Typhoon Nora devastated the Philippines and Vietnam, Hurricane Fiona savaged Canada’s Maritime provinces, and Hurricane Ian trashed parts of Florida.

I chat about the climate change factors that are leading to much more powerful hurricanes/ typhoons/ cyclones, much more rapid storm intensification, and slower, even stalled transit leading to much larger rainfalls, storm surges, storm durations, and greater catastrophic damages.

I often wonder how much longer we can rebuild for. Eventually, with more and more back to back storms, often a place has not even recovered from a climate catastrophe in our climate casino, before it is hit again. Surely, in the not-too-far future we will not have any resources (money or materials or desire) to rebuild and we will see a rapid retreat from coastlines.

Please donate here.

If you wish to specifically support my upcoming trip to the UNFCCC COP27 climate conference to present at daily news conferences, here is my GoFund Me page: Help Paul Go to COP27 – UN Climate Conference.
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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