Earth Climate System: Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse

Earth Climate System: Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse // Aug 11, 2018

Ten years ago Timothy Lenton (b. 1973) spearheaded a scientific paper examining expert assessments on the types and likelihoods of Tipping Elements in the Climate System. A number of top European climate scientists published an update a few days ago, to get a handle on the risk of cascading climate feedbacks propelling the Earth into a hothouse state.

They suggest that we are on that path now, and have a decade or two to avoid the worst. I fear that we have already gone over that cliff, and I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.
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Ref 1:  ‘Climate change: ‘Hothouse Earth‘ risks even if CO2 emissions slashed, By Matt McGrath — Environment correspondent, 6 August 2018

Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.  Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this “irreversible pathway”.  

‘Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.  An international team of climate researchers, writing in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says the warming expected in the next few decades could turn some of the Earth’s natural forces – that currently protect us – into our enemies‘.

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Ref 2. ‘Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene‘.  Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber.
PNAS August 9, 2018. 201810141; published ahead of print August 6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

Abstract:
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be.

‘If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values‘.
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Regions Will Be Uninhabitable, From Unrelenting Heat & Humidity. Primer on Wet Bulb Temp

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Human Body Limit to Heat Stress from Abrupt Climate Change // Aug 3, 2018

The average persons core body temperature is 98.6 F (37 C). Human skin is a few degrees colder, being about 35 C (95 F).  Heat travels from hot regions to cold regions, according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

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Thus when the wet-bulb temperature, which is the temperature at 100% humidity, reaches 35 C (95 C) the human body can no longer shed heat (sweat no longer evaporates), thus core body temperature rises, and the healthiest person, (editor:  ‘even’) sitting in the shade, dies in about 6 hours.

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The rest of us (young, old, medicated, out-of shape, obese, etc…) are SOL at even lower wet-bulb temperatures.  Adaptation would require living inside with AC, living in caves, or wearing cooled suits; who wants to do that??
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Uninhabitable Regions with Extreme Heat and Humidity // Aug 2, 2018

At 35 degrees Celsius (95 F) and 100% humidity (at 100% humidity this temperature is called the wet-bulb temperature) the human body is unable to cool itself by sweating, since the sweat will not evaporate from the skin. As a result, the body core temperature rises, heat exhaustion and then heatstroke sets in.

A physically healthy person sitting in the shade, in a well ventilated area, is dead in 6 hours. Higher temperatures, and correspondingly lower humidity do the same thing. The very young, old, people on medication, etc. succumb to less extreme temperatures and humidity.

This video expands upon my last video, which explains how many regions around the planet are reaching these uninhabitable conditions.
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Kevin Hester and Paul Beckwith on the Gary Null Show // Fri 03 Aug 2018, NZ

Thank you to Gary Null and Kevin Hester.

Thanks also to super blogger, Robin Westenra for sharing this at See More Rocks blog: ‘Paul Beckwith, Gary Null and Kevin Hester analyse the rapidly unfolding Climate Catastrophe‘.
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Unrelenting Heat, Humidity Will Soon Make Regions UNINHABITABLE // Aug 1, 2018

How hot can it actually get?  What is in store for us?  When you combine the heat domes sitting over many countries with high humidity, many areas around the planet will soon reach the deadly 35 C (95 F) 100% humidity (wet bulb temperature) or equivalent situation whereby a perfectly healthy person outside, in a well ventilated area, in the shade will die from the heat in 6 hours.

Most people, like the very young, the elderly, and the rest of us won’t last anywhere as long, at even lower temperatures.  I discuss the latest peer-reviewed science on how parts of high-risk regions in the North China Plains, Middle East, and South Asia will soon be rendered uninhabitable by combined heat and humidity.
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Antarctica Under Abrupt Climate Change // Jul 28, 2018

The majority of land masses are in the northern hemisphere, along with the majority of human populations. However, we can never forget the Southern Hemisphere, and the enormous mass of ice that sits on Antarctica.

With Arctic Temperature Amplification, mostly from an increase in absorbed sunlight due to darkening from snow and ice decline, more heat travels from the equator to the Southern Hemisphere, with important consequences to air and water circulation around Antarctica.

It is vital to understand how an Arctic Blue Ocean situation will impact glacier mass in Antarctica, and thus sea-level rise Extreme weather events around the entire globe are notching up in frequency, severity, and duration, as well as changing location, and many people are surprised that this is also happening in the Southern Hemisphere.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event Consequences: Air and Ocean Circulation Changes

 

Arctic Blue Ocean Event Consequences: Air and Ocean Circulation Changes //  Jul 28, 2018

It is becoming common knowledge that we are rapidly heading to complete loss of Arctic sea-ice.  Without a course reversal, one eventually gets where one is headed.  What will the consequences be, to the Arctic and to the rest of the planet?

Using my three cats as willing(?) helpers, I attempt to explain how the Beaufort Gyre and TransArctic Drift will reverse, monsoonal torrential rains will attack permafrost on land along Arctic coastlines, with severe increases in methane and carbon dioxide releases from this big thaw.

Our world will rapidly change for the worse as Arctic feedbacks accelerate and the jet streams stall out. We will have to relearn how to grow food in new ways and regions as existing farmland becomes subject to droughts and/or switches to torrential rains. Buckle your seatbelts.
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Monsoonal Patterns Start Dominating Jet Stream Circulation // Jul 28, 2018

Abrupt climate change is hitting humanity over the head with a big mallet this summer. The root cause is Arctic warming at much faster rates than equatorial warming, and the result is a mangled jet stream.

With a slower, wavy, fractured jet stream losing its domination of weather patterns, topography like elevation changes and land/water borders are taking over, making our global weather patterns more monsoonal-like, even in the Arctic as I describe in detail in previous videos.

Human health, vegetation, including crops, and everything else is severely being degraded by rapid climate change, necessitating declaration of a global climate emergency with a proportionate, global response, as if our survival depends on it. Because it does.
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Incessant Body Blows to Humanity From Abrupt Climate Change

Incessant Body Blows to Humanity From Abrupt Climate Change // Published on Jul 24, 2018

If you think that this years heatwaves are brutal, be thankful that we are not in an El Niño, which would have added even more heat to our atmosphere, thanks to energy release from the oceans.

Building on my previous two videos, I show you we have lost all Arctic Sea Ice thicker than 2 meters, and what’s left is being churned upped by a strong cyclone, and undergoing rapid melt, with almost 2 months left to go in the melt season. I clearly show what a “monsoon” is; India’s is the best example but it appears that this phenomena giving torrential rains is making an appearance in the Arctic.

     

These are quite nice accolades and compliments.

 

Ditto!
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Global Heatwaves to Arctic Monsoons: Climate Mayhem

Arctic Monsoons: A New Climate Nightmare // Published on Jul 23, 2018

Please help me wake up mainstream media.  We have a climate EMERGENCY on our hands. Extensive, long duration heat waves, caused by a stuck jet-stream are roasting people in heatwaves around the globe.

People living in the far north, in countries extending up north of the Arctic Circle are enduring unprecedented heat, wildfires, drought, and torrential rains and of course have no air conditioning; why would they.

With the land super-hot for days on end, convective lifting (hot air rises) lowers air pressure at the surface, drawing in moisture filled ocean air, leading to buildup of Arctic Monsoons, yet another “unexpected” surprise.

The big heatwave: from Algeria to the Arctic. But what’s the cause? Guardian, Sunday 22 July, 2018 by Robin McKie.
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Global Heatwaves to Arctic Monsoons: Climate Mayhem // Published on Jul 23, 2018

“I can’t hold it! She’s breaking up, she’s breaking up —” I’m not talking about Steve Austin, astronaut: a man barely alive (Six Million Dollar Man), but about Earth’s climate.

 

Arctic Sea-Ice is dying, with maximum thickness – 2 meters. Stuck jet-stream ridges with massive long-lived heat domes are cooking people, ecosystems, and crops, and creating unprecedented wildfires north of the Arctic Circle, with ash darkening ice and snow causing further rises in Arctic temperatures.

Arctic monsoons (my term) with torrential rains are becoming a new phenomena.

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Methane: Consequence and Accelerant for Abrupt Climate Change

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Methane: Consequence and Accelerant for Abrupt Climate Change // Jul 15, 2018

Abrupt climate change, specifically Arctic Temperature Amplification is rapidly taking us on a collision course to an ice-free Arctic, and is threatening to turn vast stores of carbon in thawing permafrost and sea-floor sediments into methane and carbon dioxide, further increasing warming in a vicious cascade of feedback loops.

In this ongoing series on methane, I discuss details of methane release on land, under the oceans, and chat about how it changes climate. Natural sources are emitting more methane with warming.
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Questions Galore on Arctic Methane // Jul 14, 2018

How much methane is being produced in the Arctic?

  • What exact regions are producing it? Where are we measuring it, and how?
  • How does the concentration change on an hourly basis? Daily? Weekly, monthly, seasonally and yearly?
  • How much climate warming is it causing, locally, regionally and globally?
  • What are the ways that methane is removed from the atmosphere? Can we increase these, and how do they vary with latitude?

We have many more important questions, and not so many answers.

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Arctic Methane and Abrupt Climate Change // July 12, 2018

As Abrupt Climate Change continues it’s accelerating nonlinearity, feedbacks cascade into more feedbacks. A huge wildcard continues to be methane release from the Arctic as we approach and pass beyond a “blue Arctic” event with zero sea-ice.

When there is no ice in the Arctic Ocean to keep temperatures near the freezing point, latent heat processes cease and temperatures of the sea and air skyrocket upward exposing huge methane risks. We really need to understand what will happen with an Arctic barren of sea-ice.
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Japan Crushed by Godzilla-Like Deluge, Floods, and Landslides

Japan Crushed by Godzilla-Like Deluge, Floods, and Landslides // Jul 10, 2018

Abrupt Climate Change wreaks havoc many different ways in different places. A cacophony of adverse conditions is occurring in Japan.  Very hot sea-surface temperatures create high air humidity; winds directed by a stuck jet stream bring this moisture over Japan; it rises up over mountainous terrain, condenses into storm clouds, with long-duration torrential rains for days, saturating and lubricating the soils, making them much heavier so they move downhill in massive landslides, inundating and levelling villages causing mass fatalities.
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I was again on the show, Dougie Hanson, Voices Of Dissent, on Saturday July 7, 2018 from about about 6:45 to 7:00 pm.  Link for replay, is here, VOD HR2 7-7-18.MP3.
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Can You Try to Guess Which One is Me?
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