Contact Paul

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4 Responses to Contact Paul

  1. Sorry for the typos above…. I should always review before sending, but in essence the gist of the question is still the same.

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  2. Brandon Jacobs says:

    Paul,

    I wanted to correct my figures, Methanogenesis is not 40x greater, it’s approximately 61x greater when you cross the 10C threshold for greater than ~50 days.

    The Arctic north of 60 Latitude is ONLY NOW crossing that threshold.

    Much of the arctic remains below 10C and you need ~50 days of continuous above 10C temperatures at which point the Methanogenesis spikes by 61x.

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  3. Brandon Jacobs says:

    Corrected comment: Paul, I wrote you on youtube, I’m a big fan. I will try to be brief but I think most people (and most of your videos) are looking at the wrong problem. I agree with you that abrupt climate change will occur, but I think it is caused by events set in motion 10-20 years ago. It is not something happening because of the forcing now, or happening because of a pending major catastrophe such as methane hydrates.

    In brief, the problem is methanogenesis and not methane hydrates.

    I would love to see more of your videos but shifting emphasis from the methane hydrates to a conversation of methanogenesis and to see what your very scientific and logical mind is able to find following those bread-crumbs.

    I will not include links to the sources in this email because I don’t want my first conversation to be screened by a spam filter.

    But, methanogenesis rapidly approaches optimum after 10C and after 30 days of bacterial growth.

    What this means is that as more of the arctic wetlands are exposed to days above 10C the increase of methane production from the Arctic will skyrocket, the difference between 5C and 10C over a 30 day time frame is around 10x. Over a 50 day time frame the difference is about 61x (Corrected as mentioned in 2nd comment).

    So the conversation should include “days above 10C” North of 60th latitude.

    Basically if a region is above 10C for more than 60 days it might as well be tropical (optimum methane production is between 32-40C).

    So while the Arctic is very cold it’s on a threshold, between being Arctic, and being Jungle in terms of Methanogenesis.

    We are watching that threshold be crossed now, we are seeing creation of craters in the arctic as you’ve mentioned because the number of days above 10C has increased from 0 days, to some variable average depending on what latitude you are at.

    I think we should be determining how many days above 10C we are getting on average across Siberia, and the North Canadian shield.

    Once the 10C barrier is crossed, the only variable left to consider is how much acreage in wetlands is increased.

    For instance, we can expect a 61x (Corrected as mentioned in 2nd comment) increase in Methane production from wetlands that already exists in the arctic wherever 60days of 10C+ occurs.

    But then will the acreage of active wetlands increase by 2x, 3x? etc.

    I think Methanogenesis is much more significant than the potential of a 3000Mt+ release of Methane hydrates.

    If we push CH4 to 2,700ppb then we will increase to +1watt of radiative forcing.

    So determining the concentration of CH4 as a result of wetlands is important.

    Currently wetlands are estimated to be about 25% of all CH4 released on the planet, so if you double the acreage of all wetlands by adding the Arctic to the system, then we can estimate that we will add about .125 watts just from that increase alone. (additional 25% of the .5 watt forcing from the current increase in CH4 from pre-indstrial levels).

    That .125 watts then can be factored by the estimated Methanogenesis increase due to Arctic. If arctic triples the wetland area, then it’d be around .25 watts, if it quadruples then it’d be around .375 watts. And so on.

    Thanks for your time reading this.

    I hope to see more of your research regarding the methanogenesis component.

    Regards,
    Brandon Jacobs

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  4. JEFF GREENE says:

    You need Patreon!

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