Albedo Not Tomato, Potato, Keto, or Waco

All about Albedo & Arctic Darkening: Snow, Ice, Clouds, Open-Ocean, Sun Angle // Aug 3, 2019

I continue chatting about Albedo (reflectance) and how the Arctic is rapidly darkening. By assumption, when people talk about albedo it is for:

  • Diffuse unpolarized light (such as from a light bulb vs a laser),
  • For sunlight wavelengths in the visible spectrum, and
  • Normal incidence (light perpendicular to surface).

Without going too much into the physics, I try to give you a feel for how the snow and ice and open water and low sun angle in the Arctic all affect albedo.

 

I’m going to France in Sept. to attend an important conference called Summit of Minds.  Also, I’m attending COP25 (Santiago Chile, Dec.) to report to you. Please donate at easy to use PayPal feature (does not require account) as I connect-the-dots on our global climate disruption.
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Blue Ocean Event (BOE) Consequences: Key Points to Know // hh

Complete loss of Arctic Sea-Ice has global equivalent heating 0.71 W/m2 relative to 1979:

  • If cloud fraction unchanged (by 2016, we’d already had 0.21 W/m2).
  • If cloud fraction changed to 0% (clear sky) global equivalent heating is 3 times higher;
  • If cloud coverage changed to 100% (complete coverage) global equivalent heating is 2 times lower
  • Since Arctic region is about 1/30 of globe surface area, 0.71 W/m2 globally is actually 21.3 W/m2 of heating concentrated in Arctic.
  • 0.71 W/m2 global heating equivalent would correspond to 1 Trillion tons of CO2 emissions (25 years of present day emissions) or 56.7 ppm

I expect BOE by 2022 or so; risk higher each year.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event (BOE) Key Points to Know (continued) // Aug 3, 2019

Continues from last video.


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Five: Ice-Free Arctic, Wildfires, Albedo, Feedbacks, and Equivalent Emissions.

How Much Heating can we EXPECT from an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean? // Aug 1, 2019

Abrupt Climate System Disruption is clearly accelerating; we are in a global climate EMERGENCY, not yet widely acknowledged by the powers that run our society. This will change very soon, as geopolitics pivots to a fight for our very existence on this planet.

  • The HUGE Achilles Heel of our climate system is the Arctic, and the Blue Ocean Event that is coming at us like a freight train.
  • It will hit us hard, but how hard?

I don’t have anywhere near all the answers but I go through the very latest science and my thoughts on what we can expect in a few short years when Arctic sea-ice vanishes from the top of our planet.

Ref:  ‘Earth-Sun Relationships and Insolation‘:  ‘In the previous topic, we learned that the Earth’s seasons are controlled by changes in the duration and intensity of solar radiation or insolation. Both of these factors are in turn governed by the annual change in the position of the Earth’s axis relative to the Sun‘.
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Arctic Wildfires and Peat Fires Darken Arctic and Emit more Carbon than MANY Countries // Jul 30, 2019

Another HUGE feedback darkening the Arctic and releasing literally tons of Greenhouse Gases are the crazy number of intense, hot, long-burning wildfires in the Arctic that have been decimating boreal forests, and even worse, igniting peat fires.

  • Peat is normally very wet (95% water content), acting as a block to wildfires.

However unprecedented Arctic warming this June/July has desiccated (dried out) many peat regions; the resulting compressed spaghnum high in carbon is igniting from wildfires and lightning strikes. Peat fires are bad news; able to burn deep into the ground, and last for weeks, months, and even years.
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Arctic Albedo Change with ZERO Sea-Ice: Devil is always in the Details; CLOUDS, in this Case // Jul 30, 2019

As I often say in my videos, “the devil is always in the details.” The study that equates a complete loss of Arctic Sea-Ice to 25 years of emissions has the assumption that cloud cover was essentially unchanged, which is not likely a decent assumption but a first step.

The paper than goes on to say that if clouds vanished, the sea-ice loss effect would be even larger by a whopping factor of three, and that if the sky above the newly opened water had 100% cloud coverage the sea-ice loss albedo effect would be reduced by a factor of two!! Which is it?

  • I expect cloud coverage would increase above the open water, and by Google Scholar searching a new paper shows that about 81% of the sky is cloudy over the vanquished sea-ice, so that modifies albedo but by how much??
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Total Loss of Arctic Sea-Ice Will Cause Warming Equal to 25 Years of Present Emissions // Jul 30, 2019

A new peer-reviewed scientific paper just came out arguing that a complete loss of Arctic sea-ice will have an equivalent warming impact to:

  • 25 years of global CO2 emissions (25 years x present emissions of 40 GTco2/year = 1 Trillion Tons of CO2).
  • This 57 ppm increase of CO2 concentration equivalence causes a radiative forcing averaged globally of 0.7 W/m2, except it’s concentrated in the Arctic.

As we have emitted 2.4 Trillion Tons of CO2 since the start of the industrial revolution, 1 Trillion Tons is HUGE, and will propel us like a ballistic missile to a much warmer world, miles above the 2 degree C Paris “safe level”.

Ref:  ‘Research Highlight: Loss of Arctic’s Reflective Sea Ice Will Advance Global Warming by 25 Years‘, ‘Radiative Heating of an Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean‘, Pistone, Eisenman and Ramanathan, 20 June 2019.

Abstract: During recent decades, there has been dramatic Arctic sea ice retreat. This has reduced the top‐of‐atmosphere albedo, adding more solar energy to the climate system. There is substantial uncertainty regarding how much ice retreat and associated solar heating will occur in the future…
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Rapidly Darkening Arctic is a Powerful Warming Feedback // Jul 30, 2019

As the Arctic continues to rapidly warm, losing sea-ice, land-based snow cover, and be exposed to high latitude wildfires, peat fires, and rain versus snow it literally becomes a darker place.

  • Overall Arctic albedo (reflectivity) in 1979 was 52%, declining to 48% by 2011, measured by CERES instruments on satellites.

I’d love to find data from 2011 to present, which will most certainly show a continued, even accelerated albedo decline. A darker Arctic absorbs much more solar energy causing Arctic temperature amplification. I chat about the vital significance of changing albedo and consequences to our climate system.
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Environmental Coffeehouse Interview, Sea-Ice Death Spiral, Global Aviation

Editor: For the first time in the last four years, we lead off with a video BY others, not Paul’s. Having seen virtually all of Paul’s videos, some of them several times, it is clear that peripatetic, free, and informal as this interview is, that Sandy Schoelles nevertheless manages to really capture a bit of Paul’s soul.

Having had the privilege to know Sandy for several years now and seen her work evolve, she is one of the most honest, kindest, dedicated persons in our climate area you will ever meet. Never heard one bad word said about her by anyone, ever. She has faced pain and discomfort, yet manages to somehow keep going, very often with a smile or kind word and never a bad word about others. We happily showcase her work, dk.

Paul Beckwith: Asteroids to Cloud Seeding & Ice Melt // Jul 25, 2019

Welcome Paul Beckwith tonight! We have a lot to cover… and Paul talked about the asteroid, 2019.  OK that was a near miss with earth that morning….just mere hours after Paul did 3 videos on asteroids! That is a topic we very rarely discuss….we also talk about the latest in Abrupt Climate Change, carbon capture, the moonshots and what is ahead for us and the other inhabitants of our beautiful planet . Join us for some good discussion and bring your questions!
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How Much Longer Will Arctic Sea-Ice Last?? 1 of 2 // Jul 27, 2019

The most important question on the minds of many people paying attention to abrupt climate system change is:  When will we have the first BOE: Blue Ocean Event?? It is just a matter of time before the entire Arctic Ocean becomes devoid of summer sea-ice, but we don’t know exactly when.

In this video and the next I show many plots and maps of

  • Arctic sea ice extentarea,
  • thicknessvolume,
  • regional variations, albedo, etc.

to come up with some picture (or guess) as to what will happen as this destruction of Arctic sea-ice unfolds. Ice loss momentum is enormous.

Ref: Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog, PIOMAS July 2019.
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Arctic Sea-Ice is in a Death Spiral, and on it’s Last Legs: 2 of 2 // Jul 27, 2019

Continues last video, as Part Two, on Arctic Sea ice
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Global Aviation Impact on Climate System Change are HUGE // bbb

On June 29th, 2019 a record 202,157 planes flew; essentially double the quietest day (Christmas Day, 2018) in the past 12 months.

Peak number of simultaneous flights on June 29th was above 19,000.

Each year, there are 4 billion passengers, expected to double over the next two decades.

About 4 to 9% of the climate change impact of human activities is from aviation. Since 1990, carbon dioxide emissions from flying are up 83%; the climate impact is 2-4x that of the carbon dioxide alone. The “cheap fares” are NOT cheap in terms of their huge climate change impacts.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Asteroids: Risk and Impacts, or Air Conditioning Demand?

[
Addenda by dk, 2 am Fri, 25 July: ‘City Killer Sized Asteroid Aptly Named “Asteroid 2019 OK” Barely Missed Earth this Morning‘ // Jul 25, 2019

What a crazy coincidence. Last night I uploaded three videos on asteroid and comet impacts. This morning we had an extremely close call. Asteroid 2019 OK missed Earth by 0.19 LD (72,000 km; about 6 Earth diameters; 19% of Earth-to-Moon distance). Asteroid diameter was between 57 to 130 meters, speed 24.5 km/s. Upper end size would hit with an energy of 260 MT (17,000 Hiroshima size bombs), causing a 2.6 km diameter crater 556 meters deep. The fireball would have been 1.5 km in diameter, and the frequency of occurrence is about once every 12,000 years. An extremely close call; and a total surprise.

Ref 1:  The Watchers:  ‘Asteroid 2019 OK to flyby Earth at 0.19 LD on July 25 – the largest of the year‘.

Ref 2:  ‘Apollo Asteroid
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All below, published about 12:00:30 am EST, early Thursday (late Wed PST).
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Risks and Impacts of Asteroids and Comets on Humanity: 1 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

Risk = Likelihood x Consequence. Abrupt climate change is happening now and consequences are becoming increasingly severe. However, there are other existential risks that humanity faces. In this 1st of 3 videos on asteroid and comet impacts and risks, I hopefully pique your interest by discussing some of the most famous impacts, such as the:

I talk about the sky surveys to find asteroids and comets, and nifty sites to calculate impact effects.
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Asteroid and Comet Impact Effects: Fireball, Earthquake, Ejecta, Air Blasts, Tsunamis: 2 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

Imagine that an asteroid strikes Earth 100 km (62 miles) from your location; it is like the asteroid from 66 million years ago that killed most dinosaurs. You are too close, in fact inside the fireball so everything ignites within seconds. After 20 seconds, a magnitude 10.3 earthquake hits you.

Ejecta arrives 2.4 minutes after impact, your location collapses into the final crater, and eventually covers you with 876 meters of ejecta. An air blast hits 5.05 minutes after impact. A massive tsunami wave is generated. Actually you don’t have to imagine this; you can easily calculate all this on a easy-to-use website, as I demonstrate:)

Ref:  Impact Earth, Purdue University.
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Asteroid Mitigation: Gravity Tractors, Kinetic Impactors, Laser Ablation, Nuclear Detonation: 3 of 3 // Jul 24, 2019

I am willing to bet that you are not aware of the “Planetary Defense Coordination Office -PDCO”.  These folks categorize and track “Potentially Hazardous Objects -PHOs; a subset of Near Earth Objects -NEOs whose orbits come close to Earth’s and are if a size large enough (30 to 50 meters; or 100 to 165 feet) to cause significant damage on Earth.

Strategies and technologies to mitigate PHOs, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, laser ablation, and nuclear detonations are studied as possible ways to deflect and/or break up and destroy the asteroid or comet to save Earth. That is a relief:)
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Global Growth in Air Conditioning Demand is Warming the World: 1 of 2 // Jul 21, 2019

Heatwaves around the planet are happening much more often, at much higher temperatures and humidities, with much longer durations, and they are occurring in regions that did not have them before. Thus, demand for air conditioning is skyrocketing.

Globally, the 1.6 billion AC units in 2018 are projected to grow to 5.6 billion units by 2050, and by 2050 they will use as much electricity as China does today for all activities. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation to power these ACs will nearly double, and waste heat from ACs that is vented outside can heat cities by a few degrees.

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All about Air Conditioning: Necessary for Survival: 2 of 2 // Jul 21, 2019

Most homes in hot counties have not yet purchased their first Air Conditioner, for example

  • India has less than 5% penetration.
  • Japan leads the world, with over 91% of households having AC today, followed by
  • the USA with 90%,
  • Korea at 86%,
  • Saudi Arabia at 63%, and
  • China at 60%, with
  • Mexico down to 16%, and other countries well below that.
  • Most Europeans don’t have or have previously needed AC, with France about 5%
  • and Germany about 1%,

but long duration severe heat waves there recently are quickly changing AC from a luxury item to a survival item. I chat about all the details, and about the need to increase efficiencies.

Ref:  The Future of Cooling, IEA–International Energy Agency.
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Dynamic Systems, Ocean Acidification, and Tipping Points

Nonlinear Tipping of Oceanic Carbon Cycle Driving Mass Extinctions: 1 of 2 // Jul 19, 2019

A characteristic of the five large mass extinctions in Earth’s geological history is disruption of the ocean carbon cycle, causing large, rapid ocean acidification. Acidification is proceeding extremely fast today, in what is a human-caused sixth mass extinction.

Some of the rapidly rising carbon dioxide in our atmosphere reacts with water forming carbonic acid, dissociating to bicarbonate ions, then carbonate ions, making the oceans much more acidic.  Like a canoe reaching the tipping point, the ocean carbon cycle can cross a threshold and tip as we drive emissions ever higher.

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Nonlinear Tipping of Oceanic Carbon Cycle Driving Mass Extinctions: 2 of 2 // Jul 19, 2019

What do tipping canoes, phase transitions like water freezing to ice, breaking sticks, chopping down dead trees, the carbon cycle in the ocean, and human relationships all have in common?

Answer: they are highly nonlinear, dynamic systems, that exist in stable states until pushed by some factor above so-called critical thresholds. Then abrupt disruption sweeps the systems to abruptly change towards a new, distant, eventually stable state. Rapid increases in ocean acidification from fossil fuel combustion emissions risks crossing the threshold to a mass extinction.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Not in Eighty Years But Now: Global Food, Climate Casinos, New Orleans

How 2030 is the new 2100: Global Food Yields Already Dropping from Abrupt Climate Change // July 12, 2019

2030 is the new 2100. Climate change is ALREADY reducing global food yields TODAY, with an average 1% annual reduction in the worlds top ten global crops, providing 83% of food calories to humanity: top ten food crops:

  • barley, cassava, maize (corn), oil palm,
  • rapeseed (canola),rice, sorghum,
  • soybean, sugarcane, wheat.

Most reduced: oil palm (-13.4%); increased: soybeans (+3.5%).

Negatively affected regions are Europe, South Africa, and Australia; +ve is Latin America; mixed is Asia, North and Central America.

Growing season temperatures over all harvested areas is up 0.5 to 1.2 C since the early 1970s.
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Step Right Up in the Climate Casino: New Orleans Looks to Be Next // July 10, 2019

Once again, New Orleans, LA (NOLA) is threatened with inundation, which could result in yet another water-world type flooding disaster. About a week ago, the European forecast models projected a low pressure region developing and passing southward from land into the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening into a potential hurricane in the exceptionally warm ocean surface waters, and then looping back ashore near NOLA. Unfortunately, this projection is playing out (more notes below)
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Grave Flooding Risks in New Orleans, LA: Yet Again // July 10, 2019

(Continues from above:)  The tropical storm, likely to become Hurricane Barry will dump several feet of water around and inside the city within a few short days. This huge amount of water will add to the already swollen, record duration flooding of the Mississippi River, which is at great risk of overtopping levees, flooding the city yet again..
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Game of Risk: DC Submersion, Guadalajara Hail, Planting Glorious Trees, Antarctic Regimens, Arctic Blues

Tiny Blip in Jet Stream Submerges Large Parts of Washington, DC // July 8, 2019

Only a few days ago, America celebrated its July 4th Independence Day, and the government whipped out tanks for Washington, DC festivities. I hope the military hardware was moved, or it may have been submerged today by raging torrents of water from flash floods due to over a months rainfall dropping in a few hours. Perhaps next party, more appropriate military equipment will be amphibians, or boats; heck, maybe even submarines!!
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Our Climate Casino: The Ultimate Reality Game of RISK // Jul 7, 2019

Going to Hades in a Handbasket?? No wall could stop Mexican Hail, over 3 feet deep clogging streets of Guadalajara. European Heatwave broke; new report details climate change root cause. Massive flooding inundated far northern Irkutsk (remember this “Game of Risk” country!); unprecedented numbers/sizes of wildfires scorched many places within Arctic Circle; Baked Alaska had record heatwave; species at risk are migrating; seaweed blooms 5,000 miles long appeared, running from west Africa all the way to Mexico. Eco-anxiety is a public crisis; nice to have company. Mussels cooked in their shells. Sea ice collapsing.
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Game of RISK in Real Life: Abrupt Climate Casino Disruption // Jul 7, 2019

Continues above Climate Casino video. I am fighting off shingles. Please, no sympathy but donations are gratefully encouraged. Live long and prosper:)!! Easy to use donate feature, here. No PayPal required.
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Regime Change Underway in Antarctica: Isolating Wall Breached // Jul 5, 2019

Since Southern Annular Mode (SAM) wind circulation; also ocean currents circumventing Antarctica appear to have been breached in 2014, there will be profound consequences. Jet streams will further criss-cross the Antarctica Ice Cap, mixing cold dry air with hotter humid air, accelerating sea-ice loss and increasing glacial ice-cap melt and ice sheet calving rates. South Pole warming rates will accelerate to exceed global averages, similar to what has played out and is ongoing in the Arctic. Antarctic Albedo Feedbacks will kick into gear, further disrupting global jet streams.
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Wall Isolating Antarctic Cold, Ice, and Snow Breached in 2014 // Jul 5, 2019

Over the last 40 years, passive microwaves emitted from Earth’s surface were detected both night and day and through clouds (thus in all weather conditions) by satellites sensors, measuring Antarctica Sea Ice extent, concentration, and area cycling up and down throughout yearly seasons, with even greater ranges of variability in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Arctic. Sea ice trended up over the years, reaching a maximum in 2014, but since then has plummeted, likely indicating a tipping point breach of the Southern Annular Mode wall. No, Prez T cannot rebuild it.
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Antarctic Sea Ice Tipping Point Crossed in 2014: Abrupt Climate System Disruption Accelerates // Jul 5, 2019

Up until 2014, strong winds circumventing Antarctica (and resulting powerful circumpolar ocean currents) were a barrier isolating the continent from thermal intrusions. Sea ice pulled away from coastlines more strongly over passing decades by increasing Southern Annular Mode (winds strengths) due to leftward Coriolis deflection. Sea ice extent trended upwards by 1% per decade. Feb 2014 had record high Antarctic sea ice extent. Then the barrier was breached. The average Antarctic sea ice extent plummeted a staggering 2 million square kilometres within 3 years.
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To Arctic Blue Ocean Zero and Beyond. What? When? Where? Why? What then? // Jul 4, 2019

If jet streams become quasi-stationary sometime after Blue Ocean Zero, as I contemplated last video, what happens? Living under a trough will almost be stormy and raining; while living under a ridge you will have long duration heatwaves and drought. Neither situation makes it easy to grow food; how will we feed ourselves? Maybe the best place to live would be right under the Rossby wave, in the transition zone. Not at the wave peak, which has extended right up to the North Pole, or at the trough bottom, which has crossed the equator, but perhaps in regions where the wave moves nearly north-south or south-north?
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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