Greta: Catalyst Tipping Humanity to Finally Act, Tipping Humans to Understand Huge Risks?

Greta Thunberg the Catalyst that Tips Humanity to Understand Huge Climate Risks and Finally Act? // Sep 27, 2019

As I marched in today’s Climate Strike for in Ottawa along with thousands of people I had time to reflect on what is really going on. Many years ago I figured out that inevitably humanity would reach a tipping point in its understanding of the huge risks that all life on Earth faces from accelerating climate system destabilization.

500,000 in Montreal
today, where Greta was…

I also said we would likely only recognize reaching a tipping point in the rear view mirror, after it occurred. Is it possible that Greta Thunberg is the catalyst for thrusting us beyond this tipping point of understanding? It certainly feels like it.

 

Ref intra to Paul’s site, here: Emissions, Carbon Dioxide Removal,  Solar Radiation Management, Three Legged Stool.

Ref2:  ‘Why is Greta Thunberg so triggering for certain men?‘   Irish Times, Sat 07-Sept-2019, by Jennifer O’Connell.  How can a 16-year-old girl in plaits, dedicated to trying to save the planet, inspire such incandescent rage?
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The Return of Blob 2.0? Marine Heat Wave

Return of the BLOB; aka Marine Heat Wave // Sep 25, 2019

In 2014 a phenomena appeared on which there is no history. The ocean temperature off the west coast of North America rose and destroyed marine diversity and wreaked havoc on weather patterns around the globe. Known as the “BLOB”, this voracious spot raised water temperatures in the North Pacific between 4 and 5 degrees Celsius (7-8 F), killing off humpback whales, Pacific cod, and huge numbers of birds, among other creatures.

Is the BLOB, otherwise known as a Marine Heat Wave (MHW) back to torture us? Water temperature is thus far up 2.8 degrees C.
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Marine Heat Waves Resulting in Severe Consequences: BLOB 2.0 // Sep 26, 2019

I continue chatting on the new “BLOB”, this voracious spot of very high water temperatures in the North Pacific Ocean, otherwise known as a Marine Heat Wave (MHW). As abrupt climate change accelerates, the heating is highly non uniform across the planet. Most people know that Arctic Warming is 3x to 5x faster than the global average, but not that:

  • land is warming 2x faster than oceans
  • mountain regions 2x to 3x faster
  • western ocean boundary currents 2x to 3x faster than the overall ocean.

Ref:  ‘THE BLOB EXPLAINED – WHAT IS THE BLOB?
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Greta Thunberg’s full speech to world leaders at UN Climate Action Summit

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Paul just asked that this be published, to this site, dk:

Greta Thunberg’s full speech to world leaders at UN Climate Action Summit //  Sep 23, 2019

‘Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg chastised world leaders Monday, Sep. 23, for failing younger generations by not taking sufficient steps to stop climate change. “You have stolen my childhood and my dreams with your empty words,” Thunberg said at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York. “You’re failing us, but young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say we will never forgive you,” she added.

Thunberg traveled to the U.S. by sailboat last month so she could appear at the summit. She and other youth activists led international climate strikes on Friday in an attempt to garner awareness ahead of the UN’s meeting of political and business leaders.’

Ref:  ‘Greta Thunberg stares down Trump as two cross paths at UN‘.

Ref2:  ‘Climate activist Greta Thunberg, 16, addressed the U.N.’s Climate Action Summit in New York City on Monday. Here’s the full transcript of Thunberg’s speech, beginning with her response to a question about the message she has for world leaders.

My message is that we’ll be watching you.

“This is all wrong. I shouldn’t be up here. I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you!

“You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!

“For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal clear. How dare you continue to look away and come here saying that you’re doing enough, when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight.

“You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that. Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil. And that I refuse to believe.

“The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], and the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control.

“Fifty percent may be acceptable to you. But those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution or the aspects of equity and climate justice. They also rely on my generation sucking hundreds of billions of tons of your CO2 out of the air with technologies that barely exist.

“So a 50% risk is simply not acceptable to us — we who have to live with the consequences.

“To have a 67% chance of staying below a 1.5 degrees global temperature rise – the best odds given by the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] – the world had 420 gigatons of CO2 left to emit back on Jan. 1st, 2018. Today that figure is already down to less than 350 gigatons.

“How dare you pretend that this can be solved with just ‘business as usual’ and some technical solutions? With today’s emissions levels, that remaining CO2 budget will be entirely gone within less than 8 1/2 years.

“There will not be any solutions or plans presented in line with these figures here today, because these numbers are too uncomfortable. And you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is.

“You are failing us. But the young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say: We will never forgive you.

“We will not let you get away with this. Right here, right now is where we draw the line. The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.

“Thank you.”

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Record Setting Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Over Antarctica: Causes and Consequences

Here is the first of three new videos dealing with much more southern weather and oceanography, posted today and yesterday.  Paul also added one more video dealing with the North Pole and Greenland from our recent post, here.  This is from three days ago.

Record Setting Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Over Antarctica: Causes and Consequences //

I shift gears from the Arctic to chat about the Southern Hemisphere and Antarctica. Since the last week of August, the stratospheric polar vortex first became elongated and then completely destabilized, with some regions warming up abruptly from about -70C to an incredible +13C, causing the high altitude vortex to morph into two and then even three vortices.

My understanding is that rapid loss of Antarctic sea ice in some regions and gain in others caused an asymmetry of sea ice around the continent, thus causing asymmetry and breakdown of the vortex.
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What’s Up Or Down: Extent, Thickness, Volume, Thermodynamics of Arctic Sea-Ice

What’s up (down) with Arctic Sea-Ice: Extent, Thickness, Volume Dynamics and Thermodynamics // Sep 12, 2019

In September, 2012 Arctic sea ice extent (regions with at least 15% sea ice concentration) set a record low extent, far below any previous year and subsequent year, until now.

This year, up until about mid-August, sea ice extent closely tracked 2012, in fact was even lower than 2012 for long periods of time. Then, quite unexpectedly, 2019 melt significantly flattened out, stalling to be far behind 2012.

In this first of a series of videos, I discuss possible reasons for this stalling, in light of the fact that sea-ice volume continued to track closely to that in 2012, with no sign of stalling.
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New Ice Behavior Regime for Arctic Sea Ice Melt // Sep 132, 2019

I continue discussing details of Arctic sea ice melt, including the puzzling stalling of the extent drop in mid-August; yet continuation of volume loss to match 2012 (year that set records for both lowest volume and lowest extent).

Physical properties of the sea ice remaining are different since most of the stronger, purer (less salt content), thicker, older multi-year ice has melted out, or been exported and melted, leaving behind only weaker, saltier, thinner, younger first year and second year ice. We are in a new ice behavior regime, with different melt and freeze dynamics.
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Is Climate System Internal Variability Significantly Messing with Arctic Sea Ice Demise Predictions? // Sep 13, 2019

Continuing my Arctic sea ice loss videos, I discuss a paper on sea ice thickness variability arguing that internal variability of the climate system is very large, and thinner ice is even more sensitive to internal variability.

It suggests that we cannot predict complete loss of Arctic sea ice within a time window of less than 20 years; and that the difference in emissions pathways between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 adds 5 more years to uncertainty. I am extremely skeptical of this result. To me, large variability means when a large negative swing occurs the sea ice will unexpectedly and rapidly vanish.

    

Ref:  ‘How predictable is the first ice-free Arctic summer?’ 25 August 2016 17:44, Guest post by Dr. Alexandria Jahn.
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Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness in Six Different Arctic Basins // Sep 14, 2019

Continuing my Arctic sea ice loss videos, I examine a paper on sea ice thickness variability that uses the PIOMAS model and a Community Earth System Model. Dividing the Arctic Ocean up into 6 different basins:

  • Barents-Kara Seas,
  • Laptev Sea,
  • East Siberian Sea,
  • Beaufort-Chukchi Seas,
  • Greenland Sea, and the
  • Central Arctic Basin (CAB).

It examines each basins sea ice thickness history and projections, and timing as to when basin thickness average falls below 0.5 meters. Greenland Sea lasts longest (cushioned by cold glacier meltwater); the CAB lasts next longest.
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Bahama Death Toll of 40,000 from Hurricane Dorian: My Estimate

Bahama Death Toll of 40,000 from Hurricane Dorian: My Estimate // Sep 9, 2019

Just after Category 5 Hurricane Dorian stalled over the Grand Bahamas and Abaco Islands for 1.5 days, with

  • 185 mph sustained winds (225 mph gusts) and a
  • storm surge covering 2/3 of the islands,
  • with up to 25 foot deep seawater,
  • the world media reported an absurd death toll of exactly 5 people.

Over the next 10 days their insane number climbed to 7, 10, 20, …, 45. What really happened?

I estimate a death toll of up to 40,000 people; over 10% of the countries population. Most of these people were likely washed out to sea by the massive storm surge, never to be seen again.
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How Bahamas (and ALL Caribbean) can Increase Resiliency to Face Onslaught of MASSIVE Hurricanes // Sep 9, 2019

Clearly, the northernmost Bahama islands have been essentially destroyed with tremendous loss of life; last video I estimated 40,000 dead; most people washed out to sea to never be seen again. The world faces many extremely difficult decisions on what to do moving forward, including should we even rebuild, to be destroyed again?

Given that we do rebuild, I chat about how it should be done in the most resilient way possible, and suggest that the Caribbean Island’s own their own cruise ships to greatly increase resiliency in the face of massive hot-water charged superstorms.
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A BIG thread….

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Climate Charged Hurricane Dorian Tragically Destroys Grand Bahamas

Art at Royal Botanical Gardens in Burlington, Ontario (L)
Google Google Earth and explore Grand Bahama Island (R)

Abrupt Climate Change Realities: Hurricanes Stronger, Intensify Faster, Move Slower, Dump More Rain // Sep 3, 2019

I continue to delve deeply into recent, cutting edge science on how climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous.

  • Warming oceans have more evaporation;
  • warmer air holds more water vapour,
  • so storms are stronger and intensify more rapidly and
  • cause much greater rainfall.
  • Also, the forward speed of tropical storms has reduced globally by 10% since 1949;
  • slowing over land is even greater (by 21% in western North Pacific, and 16% in North Atlantic).

Hurricane Dorian was essentially STATIONARY for 1.5 days; Hurricane Harvey in 2017 meandered at 1-2 mph over Texas in 2017 dropping 5 feet of rain.

Ref:  Intense Hurricanes like Dorian Produce 1,000 Times More Damage & They’re Becoming More Common, By Jeff Berardelli.
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Hurricane Danger Increasing from Climate Change: chat on the SCIENCE // Sep 3, 2019

I delve deeply into recent, cutting edge science on how climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) above 26.5 C fuel cyclones, making them more intense.

  • Global satellite coverage available since 1985 shows a consistent average of 80 tropical cyclones per year,
  • varying from 65 to 90, with no discernible trend.
  • However, since 1975 there has been a substantial increase in the proportion of Cat. 4 -5 hurricanes of 25-30% per degree C of global warming (and a similar decrease in Cat. 1 -2 hurricanes.
  • Rapid intensification of hurricanes has increased 4.4 mph per decade.

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Unprecedented Behaviour: Category 5 Dorian Gets Stuck on Grand Bahama Island // Sep 3, 2019

What causes a Category 5 Hurricane (Cat. 6 if it existed) to park itself over Grand Bahama Island, and stay stationary over 1.5 days while churning away, grinding the island to a pulp, and submerging lots of the island under 24 feet of seawater?

I show you on Earth NullSchool how Dorian behaved, and then I delve into the science on how climate change is making hurricanes much more dangerous. Imagine what would happen if Dorian had parked itself off Miami instead; the damage to Florida’s east coast could have run into trillions of dollars. We must think about the unthinkable, with abrupt climate change.
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Hurricane Dorian Essentially Wipes Grand Bahama Island from the Map // Sep 3, 2019

It is heart-wrenching witnessing utter devastation that Hurricane Dorian unleashed on the Bahamas. This powerful Category 5

  • (sustained winds over 180 mph (300 km/hr),
  • peak winds 225 mph (360 km/hr),
  • storm surge 24 feet)
  • razed and submerged lots of Bahama’s northern islands,
  • unprecedentedly parking over Grand Bahama for 36 hours.

Imagine being hit by winds equal to a tornadoes EF3-EF4 not for a minute or so, but continuously for 1.5 days, while inundated with 24 foot ocean surge, and torrential rainfall. If this had occurred 50 miles to the west, it could have caused trillions of dollars of damage to Florida’s east coast.

Ref:  How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous, Jeff Berardelli.  Monday, July 8, 2019:

Major hurricanes are by far the world’s costliest natural weather disasters, in some cases causing well over $100 billion in damage. There’s now evidence that the unnatural effects of human-caused global warming are already making hurricanes stronger and more destructive. The latest research shows the trend is likely to continue as long as the climate continues to warm.’
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First person account of Dorian who was
lucky to escape with his life. HurricaneMan:

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