How do Individuals and Society think about RISK

Posted on October 7, 2022 by paulbeckwith

Oct 6, 2022

As individuals, and as a society, our track record on assessing risk and responding to reduce risk appropriately is dismal.

There are numerous examples of this inadequacy, but one of the worst is our lack of understanding the grave risks from abrupt climate system change in time to enact plans to mitigate and save our societies and ourselves, and the plants and animals that we occupy this planet with.

Risk is generally determined by multiplying the probability or likelihood of something happening with the impact or consequences to us if that something actually happens.

Our risk assessment is horribly bad when the probability is very low and the impacts are very huge, so the product (risk) is significant, but mathematically the variance or uncertainty is extremely high. When the impacts are very severe and negative, we tend to ignore them and convince ourselves that they will never happen. This is a very dangerous path to proceed on, and eventually it comes along “unexpectedly” and caused us severe difficulties.

What could be more devastating than a loss of civilized society with massive mortality and morbidity in a small number of countries cascading into a loss of ordered society in more and more countries until it eventually cascades into all global societies?

Any scientific study that tries to better understand how we as individuals or the collective we (society) think about risks as we live through our life cycles is useful to help us get a better handle on how we can address risks logically and smartly rather than ignore them by sticking our heads into the sand.

Please donate at here, et to support my research and videos.
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To support my preparation, travel, and attendance at the global climate conference COP27 please consider reading more details here. If you wish to specifically support my upcoming trip to the UNFCCC COP27 climate conference to present at daily news conferences, here is my GoFund Me page: Help Paul Go to COP27 – UN Climate Conference.
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OOPS. Global Dimming is Worse than we thought // Oct 8, 2022

I am exchanging corny physics jokes with a good friend of mine. My last contribution was:

Q: I didn’t realize that Einstein was a real person.
A: I always thought that he was a theoretical physicist.

His last contributions were:

Q: Why does a burger have less energy than a steak?
A: Because it’s in its ground state.

Q: What’s the most terrifying word in nuclear physics?
A:Oops.

Thus, I just had to use the word Oops to lead off my title to this video!!

I chat about a brand spanking new peer reviewed paper that determines the aerosol-cloud radiative effect (global dimming) is much larger than we thought; in fact over 40% worse.

If this finding pans out (remember, this is only one paper, and needs to be confirmed with many studies) then it means:

Climate models are too conservative

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is more sensitive than we thought

Warming will accelerate much more as we reduce aerosols from emissions

on the positive side, MCB (Marine Cloud Brightening) will be far more effective than we thought.
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Hurricanes Wreaking Havoc in our Climate Fuelled World

Posted on October 2, 2022 by paulbeckwith

I’m back. My sabbatical to renovate my 111 year old house, relax, recharge my batteries, and fall in love with my puppy has reached its conclusion. The next five weeks will be extremely busy for me with new climate videos, new analysis, and new insights into our rapid climate system change, as I prepare for multiple presentations at COP27 in Egypt in early November.

The story on this years hurricane season seems to be “In with a whimper, and out with a bang”. In rapid succession, Typhoon Nora devastated the Philippines and Vietnam, Hurricane Fiona savaged Canada’s Maritime provinces, and Hurricane Ian trashed parts of Florida.

I chat about the climate change factors that are leading to much more powerful hurricanes/ typhoons/ cyclones, much more rapid storm intensification, and slower, even stalled transit leading to much larger rainfalls, storm surges, storm durations, and greater catastrophic damages.

I often wonder how much longer we can rebuild for. Eventually, with more and more back to back storms, often a place has not even recovered from a climate catastrophe in our climate casino, before it is hit again. Surely, in the not-too-far future we will not have any resources (money or materials or desire) to rebuild and we will see a rapid retreat from coastlines.

Please donate here.

If you wish to specifically support my upcoming trip to the UNFCCC COP27 climate conference to present at daily news conferences, here is my GoFund Me page: Help Paul Go to COP27 – UN Climate Conference.
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Societal Dumbing Down of IQ, Collapse Risk From Solar Storm

Posted on July 29, 2022 by paulbeckwith

The Dumbing Down of Society: Possible Reasons for the Global Reduction in IQ (Intelligence Quotient)

Jul 29, 2022

From about 1900 to 1975 there was an increase in the IQ (Intelligence Quotient) of people of roughly 3 IQ points per decade. Measured in many different countries across the various population demographics, this apparently significant gain in human intelligence was known as Flynn’s Law.

There was a reversal of this trend around 1975. A peer reviewed study from Norway, published just a few years ago, shows that people’s average IQ is dropping about 7 points per generation now. If we assume a generation is about 25 years, the present drop rate is roughly the same magnitude as the previous gain rate up to 1975, a sharp reversal of Flynn’s Law.

I chat about the suspected reasons for this according to the intelligence experts, including a negative effect from particulate air pollution. I propose that the actual cause may be due to CO2 levels in the atmosphere rising from a level of 320 ppm to 420 ppm over the last 4 to 5 decades.


Ref: The Intelligence of Dogs: Canine Consciousness and Capabilities, Stanley Coren 1994
Ref2: In Praise Of Walking, Shane O’Mara 2019
Ref3: Robert Ludlum’s The Treadstone Exile, Joshua Hood 2022
Ref4: Frich Centre, Norway
Ref5: Proceedings of The Norwegian Academy of Sciences–PNAS.org
Ref6: Flynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally Caused, Bratsberg Rogeberg 2018
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On the Extremely High Risk of Societal Collapse from Solar Storm Coronal Mass Ejection

Jul 25, 2022

We worry about societal collapse from Abrupt Climate System Change Mayhem that is accelerating in magnitude and frequency, and yet we tend to overlook other risks.

In 1859 an enormous Solar Storm erupted from a sunspot, causing a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that hit the Earth. Fortunately at that time, there was not a lot of electronics on the Earth to fry. If that same event happened today, it would likely knock out most of our electronic systems, including power grids, transportation infrastructure, the vast global internet, water and sewage systems, and everything else relying on electricity.

We had a near miss in 2012, when the Sun produced such a high magnitude event, but fortunately it missed the Earth by a mere 9 days. An extremely close call, that did not wake us up to the huge risks. The most recent peer-reviewed science forecasts that such an event could occur and strike Earth with a probability of up to 12% per decade.

This risk is much higher than you likely thought, even if you were aware of the nature of these Solar Storm CME events. Why do I produce a video on this topic now?

1) A software update by a communications company in Canada glitched and knocked out internet for a day for millions of Canadians, and some unlucky people had no internet for up to 4 days. This prompted mainstream media articles on system vulnerabilities.
2) A recent Solar Storm occurred about a week ago.
3) The risk of a catastrophic event is as high as 12% per decade.
4) In 2012 we (the Earth) had a close shave, missing catastrophic damage by 9 days.
5) Solar activity is increasing, so the risks of a catastrophic event are increasing over the next few decades.
6) Ice core records indicate that over the last 150 years we have had 42 events, of which 6 were major.

Ref: A major solar Storm Can Strike Earth. We Need to Be Ready, Breyers, July 14, 2022
Ref2: The Rogers Outage is a Sign We Need to Get Serious About Infrastructure Resilience, McGrath Jul 8, 2022
Ref3: Carrington Event. The Carrington Event: History’s Greatest Solar Storm, May & Dobrijevic, May 20, 2022
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Greenland Ice Sheet Vulnerable to Bone-Crushing Melt from Stronger More Frequent Atmospheric Rivers

Posted on July 15, 2022 by paulbeckwith

Jul 14, 2022

About a year ago Greenland made worldwide jarring climate news as it rained for the first time ever on the summit at an elevation of almost 2 miles.

This unprecedented rain event occurred during a very powerful atmospheric river (AR) event, that brought a tremendous amount of heat and moisture to the highest regions of the massive ice sheet. These ARs are happening more often with abrupt climate system change, and in previous videos I have discussed their physics, and their consequences, including the British Columbia flooding, and the ARs reaching Antarctica causing massive ice melt at the South Pole.

Most main-stream glaciologists and other scientists think that it will take many decades to centuries to get massive ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica.

I firmly believe that as the frequency, severity, and duration of Atmospheric River (ARs) that hit Greenland and Antarctica continue to increase, the melt rates of Greenland and Antarctica will spike abruptly upward, and raise sea levels in a highly nonlinear, abrupt fashion.

Ref: Greenland Ice Sheet Rainfall, Heat and Albedo Feedback Impacts From the Mid-August 2021 Atmospheric River,Jason E. Box,Adrien Wehrlé,Dirk van As,Robert S. Fausto,Kristian K. Kjeldsen,Armin Dachauer,Andreas P. Ahlstrøm,Ghislain Picard
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Please donate here to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system change, and teach you what I know about the latest science in easily understood lay-person language. I truly believe that much joy in life comes from continuous learning and teaching, and I am sure that I learn as much from researching, studying, and filming these videos as you may learn from watching them.
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Crossover of Military Attempts to “Predict the Future” on Climate Predictions; Perspective on Earth’s Energy Imbalance

Posted on July 12, 2022 by paulbeckwith

Jul 10, 2022

Within the Pentagon and US Department of Defence Agencies, there is an ongoing quest to automate conflict, militarize data, and predict the future.

A new book (2022) called “War Virtually” by Anthropologist Roberto J. Gonzalez delves into this mostly secretive quest.

I was wondering whether the “predict the future” part examined abrupt climate system change as the core for these predictions, and was very surprised to find out that climate was hardly considered, if at all.

I discuss the details of what is actually considered, and really wonder what is going on and why climate change is hardly even mentioned.

As you probably already know, I always have multiple books on the go. As well as War Virtually, I highly recommend the fiction by Clive Cussler called “Arctic Drift” published in 2008; it is chock full of Arctic and Canadian settings, and covers Arctic sea ice and science quite well. I also recommend Erik Larson’s 2020 non-fiction called “The Splendid and the Vile” covering Sir Winston Churchill WWII leadership and the darkest days for Britain in 1939 and 1940 as they stood alone and withstood the German Blitzkrieg and Luftwaffe military might. Another great read, and great insights into the true leadership of Churchill. Very sad that we have no compatible leadership in any country on tackling abrupt climate system change.
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Jul 11, 2022

To get a better handle on understanding abrupt climate system change, and how it makes out lives much more unpredictable, within the climate casino, understanding the overall Earth Energy budget and Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is vital.

In fact, 93% of the EEI is going into the oceans and heating them. Only about 3% of EEI is melting ice in glaciers on mountains and Greenland and Antarctica. Meanwhile about 4% is heating the land and melting the permafrost, and less than 1% is going into the atmosphere. This means that less than 1% is casing the in-your-face global warming that most of us human landlubbers are experiencing.

We have all seen the graphs of increases in GMST (Global Mean Surface Temperature) and discuss the 1.5 C and 2 C numbers that are debated as-nauseous at yearly climate conferences. Yet, this consequence is only due to less than 1% of the EEI.

Clearly, we need to understand the overall energy flows, energy reservoirs, and changes in the overall Earth System in order to figure out what is really happening, and evaluate properly measures to mitigate the problem.

In this video I focus mostly on a brand new peer reviewed paper published one week ago called “A perspective on climate change from Earth’s Energy Imbalance”.

Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change.
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Please donate here to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system change, and teach you what I know about the latest science in easily understood lay-person language. I truly believe that much joy in life comes from continuous learning and teaching, and I am sure that I learn as much from researching, studying, and filming these videos as you may learn from watching them.
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On the Vital Importance of Atmospheric Hydroxyl Radical (OH*) Chemistry For Removal of Methane

Posted on June 28, 2022 by paulbeckwith

Jun 27, 2022

In this video I delve into the details of the hydroxyl radical (OH*). This extremely reactive molecule is known as the “detergent of the atmosphere” and is the major scrubber of methane in the atmosphere.

Methane levels in the atmosphere are rapidly rising, with 2020 and 2021 being record setting years, by far. Since the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of methane is 34x that of CO2 on a 100 year timescale, a huge 86x on a 20 year timescale, and a whopping 150x to 200x on a year or two timescale, the record rise in methane is contributing enormously to abrupt climate system change.

Thus, knowing the details of the OH* molecule in the atmospheric are crucial for figuring out what to do to try and mitigate the atmospheric methane.

Short wavelength solar radiation in the Ultraviolet (UV; wavelength shorter than about 336 nm) has enough energy to break apart the ozone molecule into an O ion and an oxygen molecule. The extremely reactive O singlet reacts with water in the atmosphere to produce the OH. Thus, the concentration of OH is very high in the tropics which have lots of penetrating UV (low stratospheric ozone) and large water vapour concentrations (very hot Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) with lots of evaporation).

Since methane is rapidly rising, people thought that OH* would be depleted, but fortunately the OH* production (from ozone breakdown, water vapour reactions, reactions with NOx, widening of the Hadley Cell by between 0.5 to 1.0 degrees latitude per decade) are almost cancelling out the OH* loss from methane destruction chemical reactions. Some good news for a change; hopefully it continues.

Ref: Detergent-like Molecule Recycles Itself in Atmosphere (yr 2000).

Ref2: Study Discovers That This Methane Depleting Atmospheric Molecule Can Recycle Itself, Katarina Samurović, January 29, 2019

Ref: Global Monitoring Laboratory, Global CH4 Monthly Means

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Please donate here to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system change, and teach you what I know about the latest science in easily understood lay-person language. I truly believe that much joy in life comes from continuous learning and teaching, and I am sure that I learn as much from researching, studying, and filming these videos as you may learn from watching them.
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Canada’s Recent DERECHO was a DOOZY: The Science and Impacts of Derechos, Downbursts, and Tornados

Posted on June 10, 2022 by paulbeckwith

Jun 9, 2022

I was on an island in cottage country on Saturday May 21st, 2022 when Canada’s first Derecho since 1999 passed over me like a freight train. Fortunately, there were no tornados or downbursts in my immediate vicinity, or in the vicinity of my house in Ottawa.

It was not forecast in advance; there was no inkling that it was coming.

The derecho (straight line winds reaching hurricane strength) toppled trees and caused much damage in a swath extending from the U.S. border near Windsor all the way through the most heavily populated parts of Canada (in southern Ontario and Quebec) to the New England state of Maine.

It hit Sarnia, Ontario at 9:30 am and passed through most major cities in southern Ontario and Quebec before reaching Quebec City at 6:30 pm, traversing a distance of nearly 1000 km (620 miles) in 9 hours, giving an average forward speed of 110 kph (basically Category 1 hurricane wind speeds).

An EF-2 tornado was spun off the derecho in the town of Uxbridge, ON damaging many houses and trees. Downbursts were generated in numerous locations along the derecho path, and one that hit west Ottawa toppled four steel transmission line towers. To topple these towers, the downburst winds reached an estimated speed of 180 to 190 kph.

In this video I examine in detail this Canadian extreme weather event that impacted millions of people on Saturday May 21st (about 900,000 homes lost power, 150,000 in Ottawa alone). Power was out for several weeks for many people in Ottawa, and in rural regions.

Please donate here to support my research and videos as I join the dots on abrupt climate system change, and teach you what I know about the latest science in easily understood lay-person language. I truly believe that much joy in life comes from continuous learning and teaching, and I am sure that I learn as much from researching, studying, and filming these videos as you may learn from watching them.
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Climate Change Impacts on El Niño — La Niña (ENSO) Variability and the Severe Global Consequences

Posted on June 1, 2022 by paulbeckwith

Jun 1, 2022

Description, detailed discussion of El Niño and La Niña.

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Ref: Use of Climate Reanalyzer. SST Anomaly.
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Ref 2: Ref: The Walker Circulation: ENSO’s Atmospheric Buddy, by Tom Di Liberto
Published August 1, 2014 Updated October 5, 2021:

‘Reading back over the many excellent (if I do say so myself) posts here at the ENSO blog, there have been several re-occurring themes—the biggest of which is that ENSO is not just an ocean phenomena but an ocean-atmospheric interaction. ENSO is no one-man act. If the ocean is Abbott, then the atmosphere is Costello; the ocean…Laverne, the atmosphere…Shirley; the ocean…Kanye, the atmosphere…Kim. And just like there would be no “Kimye” without Kanye West and Kim Kardashian, there is no ENSO event without both an atmospheric and oceanic response.

‘We have previously touched on both aspects of this with a post on the importance of a sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean (and the lack of gradient may be currently hindering the development of El Niño) as well as a post on the atmospheric response, the SO part of ENSO, where Emily Becker described the Southern Oscillation, especially the lack of typical response in that Southern Oscillation during June 2014.‘


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Also mention of thirteen interviews on CBC:

CBC interviews Wednesday morning EDT…
Please see below for the interview schedule for Paul Beckwith.
All times below are ET.
For Guest / Host – Local time at guest location

6:10 MONTREAL – Daybreak
Sean Henry – Host, Twitter: @cbcdaybreak

6:20 CAPE BRETON (SYDNEY) – Information Morning
Steve Sutherland – Host, Twitter: @InfoMorningCB

6:40 KITCHENER-WATERLOO – The Morning Edition
Host: Craig Norris, Twitter: @cbckw891

6:50 CHARLOTTETOWN – Island Morning
Mitch Cormier – Host, Twitter: @mitchcormierCBC
https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-30-island-morning

7:00 SAINT JOHN – Information Morning
Julia Wright – Host, Twitter (show): @InfoAMSJ and Twitter (host): @thewrightpage

7:30 YELLOWKNIFE – The Trailbreaker
Loren McGinnis- Host, Twitter: @TheTrailBreaker

7:40 MONCTON – Information Morning
Jonna Brewer – Host, Twitter: @JonnaBrewerCBC

7:50 EDMONTON – Edmonton AM
Mark Connolly – Host, Twitter handle @markconnollycbc

8:00 CALGARY —The Eyeopener
David Gray – Host, Twitter (host David Gray): @graydio1, Show: @cbceyeopener

8:10 VICTORIA – On The Island
Gregor Craigie – Host
Twitter: @cbcontheisland @GregorCraigie

8:20 KELOWNA – Daybreak South
Chris Walker – Host, Twitter: @cbckelowna

8:40 REGINA – The Morning Edition
Host: Stefani Langenegger, Producer: Janani Whitfield, Twitter handle: @SLangeneggerCBC

8:50 ONTARIO – Ontario AM
Twitter: @CBCOntMorning
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Ref: Use of Climate Reanalyzer. SST Anomaly

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Insights From Past Millennia for Climate Impacts on Human Health & Survival: AMOC Tip would Crush Us

Posted on May 21, 2022 by paulbeckwith

May 20, 2022

In the last video I chatted in great detail about how a collapse of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) ocean current system is at grave and ever increasing risk of occurring; in fact I discussed how Early Warning Signs (EWS) are already looking pretty dire.

What would the consequences to humanity actually look like if the AMOC was to shut down?

To try and probe this question, in this video I examine in detail a fascinating peer reviewed paper called “Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival”. Over the past several thousands of years, there have been many different civilizations build up and then very quickly collapse and essentially vanish, and this paper tries to tease out the climate connections to many of these collapses. The nexus of drought-food scarcity-famine seems to be the most common pathway leading to the collapse of many societies.

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Please donate to here, to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change.
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Ref1: Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival, by Anthony J. McMichael — Feb 6, 2012 // Link to direct PDF here of full article.

Abstract
Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and survival via weather extremes and climatic impacts on food yields, fresh water, infectious diseases, conflict, and displacement. Paradoxically, these risks to health are neither widely nor fully recognized. Historical experiences of diverse societies experiencing climatic changes, spanning multicentury to single-year duration, provide insights into population health vulnerability—even though most climatic changes were considerably less than those anticipated this century and beyond. Historical experience indicates the following.

(i) Long-term climate changes have often destabilized civilizations, typically via food shortages, consequent hunger, disease, and unrest.
(ii) Medium-term climatic adversity has frequently caused similar health, social, and sometimes political consequences.
(iii) Infectious disease epidemics have often occurred in association with briefer episodes of temperature shifts, food shortages, impoverishment, and social disruption.
(iv) Societies have often learnt to cope (despite hardship for some groups) with recurring shorter-term (decadal to multiyear) regional climatic cycles (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation)—except when extreme phases occur.
(v) The drought–famine–starvation nexus has been the main, recurring, serious threat to health.

Warming this century is not only likely to greatly exceed the Holocene’s natural multidecadal temperature fluctuations but to occur faster. Along with greater climatic variability, models project an increased geographic range and severity of droughts.

Modern societies, although larger, better resourced, and more interconnected than past societies, are less flexible, more infrastructure-dependent, densely populated, and hence are vulnerable. Adverse historical climate-related health experiences underscore the case for abating human-induced climate change.

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