Heat Wave in India & Pakistan Hits 1 Billion: Coal to Generate Electricity for AC’s in Short Supply

Heat Wave in India & Pakistan Hits 1 Billion: Coal to Generate Electricity for AC’s in Short Supply // Apr 28, 2022

More than 1 Billion people are facing a relentless heatwave in India and Pakistan this week. Temperatures are forecast to reach 50 C (122 F) near the border of the two countries over the next few days, under what has been described as a record breaking heat dome for April.

This is happening in what is supposed to be a cooler year due to the ongoing La Niña state.

Coal supplies in India for generating electricity in electrical power plants is in short supply; demand has gone way up to power Air Conditioners to allow people to cope with the heat.

Interesting, this is mimicking the opening scenes in Kim Stanley Robinson’s recent climate fiction book called “The Ministry for the Future” in which lack of AC results in millions of heat deaths. Hopefully this does not happen, but the risks are ever increasing.

Grain crops are withering in the fields, and this is exacerbating the risks of food disruptions, on top of the global risks to grain from lack of supply by Ukraine and Russia.

Also, people are not as resilient to extreme heat as we thought. Theoretically, we thought that a wet bulb temperature of 35C (with 100% humidity) was the limit of endurance, but a recent study published by Penn State shows that even young, healthy test subjects undergoing light metabolic activity could only withstand a wet bulb temperature of about 31C, much lower than the theoretical 35C.

Please donate here, to support my research and videos as I teach you the latest climate and weather disruption science in easily understood lay-person terms.

Sincerely,
Paul
Newton
Shackleton
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Ref: Humans can’t endure temperatures and humidities as high as previously thought, March 01, 2022, by Katie Bohn:

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — As climate change nudges the global temperature higher, there is rising interest in the maximum environmental conditions like heat and humidity to which humans can adapt. New Penn State research found that in humid climates, that temperature may be lower than previously thought.

It has been widely believed that a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was the maximum a human could endure before they could no longer adequately regulate their body temperature, which would potentially cause heat stroke or death over a prolonged exposure.
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Climate Change Emergency Protest #177

The New Gettysburg Address” April 29, 2022 Gettysburg PA USA (2 minutes). Jim McHenry.

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Atmospheric River Attacks on West Antarctic and East Antarctic Ice Sheets, Ice Shelves, and Sea Ice

Atmospheric River Attacks on West Antarctic and East Antarctic Ice Sheets, Ice Shelves, and Sea Ice // Apr 21, 2022

In the previous video I chatted about how Atmospheric Rivers have directly contributed to the past collapses of both Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula.

In this video I perform a more detailed analysis on how these Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are moving to higher and higher latitudes because of abrupt climate system change, and hitting both poles with more intense, higher water content, long duration, hotter rivers of air (1 to 3 km above sea level).

I discuss three fairly recent peer-reviewed papers. The first discusses the factors involved in causing the new record low sea ice extent around Antarctica, the second details Increases in AR impacts on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), and the third discusses overall AR consequences to the continent as a whole. Clearly, one of the big surprises to me is the number of rainfall events around the Antarctica coastline, and it is obvious that this cannot be good for Antarctic sea ice longevity.

Please donate to here to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on the latest science of abrupt climate system change. Please do your part to help me increase viewership of these videos by sharing far and wide and often on any and all social media platforms.

Sincerely,
Paul
Shackleton, Sally, Mop
Newton (Sir Isaac)

Ref: Antarctic Sea Ice Hit a Record Low, Now Scientists Think They Know Why, By Chelsea Harvey, E&E News on April 20, 2022

Antarctic sea ice hit a stunning record-low minimum at the end of February, dropping below 772,000 square miles for the first time since satellites began observing the southern continent more than 40 years ago. * Now scientists say they’ve untangled the reasons why. * A study published yesterday in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences points to a perfect storm of factors that sent Antarctic sea ice spiraling downward in the past year. Some involve natural climate cycles—while others may be influenced by human-caused climate change.

An Unprecedented Record Low Antarctic Sea-ice Extent during Austral Summer 2022, Wang, Luo, Yang, Yu, Shi & Han, April 19, 2022

Abstract: Seasonal minimum Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) in 2022 hit a new record low since recordkeeping began in 1978 of 1.9 million km2 on 25 February, 0.17 million km2 lower than the previous record low set in 2017. Significant negative anomalies in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, the Weddell Sea, and the western Indian Ocean sector led to the new record minimum. The sea ice budget analysis presented here shows that thermodynamic processes dominate sea ice loss in summer through enhanced poleward heat transport and albedo-temperature feedback. In spring, both dynamic and thermodynamic processes contribute to negative sea ice anomalies. Specifically, dynamic ice loss dominates in the Amundsen Sea as evidenced by sea ice thickness (SIT) change, while positive surface heat fluxes contribute most to sea ice melt in the Weddell Sea.

Atmospheric river of moisture will trigger storms and tornadoes this week, By Jennifer Gray, CNN meteorologist. Updated 5:05 PM ET, Mon April 11, 2022

You may have heard of atmospheric rivers impacting the West Coast. We had several notable ones this year that brought flooding, staggering snowfall amounts to the mountains in the west, and even landslides.

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HUGE: Atmospheric Rivers Triggered Collapse of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves Larsen A and Larsen B

HUGE: Atmospheric Rivers Triggered Collapse of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves Larsen A and Larsen B // Apr 14, 2022

A HUGE and significant new peer reviewed scientific study/paper ties the collapse of both Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelf collapses on the Antarctica Peninsula to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs).

We know that ARs we’re recently blamed for the simultaneous heat waves in the Arctic (30 C temperature anomaly) and in Antarctica (40 C temperature anomaly).

Now, this new paper I discuss shows that ARs are responsible for over 60% of large ice sheet calving events in the last two decades since they:

bring extremely warm temperatures to the ice sheets
cause extensive surface melt, followed by ice fracturing via hydrofracking forcing
remove significant sea-ice in the proximity of the ice shelves
cause large ocean swells to destabilize the ice shelves
–Basically, Atmospheric Rivers are hammering the glacial ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic, greatly increasing ice calving and melt losses.

Since this AR mechanism is not accounted for in any climate models, it represents a mechanism to greatly accelerate polar warming, ice destruction, and sea level rise.

Ref: Intense atmospheric rivers can weaken ice shelf stability at the Antarctic by Peninsula, Wille, Favier, Jourdain, Kittel, Turton, Agosta,Gorodetskaya (et al), Published: . Download PDF–14 pp. here.

The disintegration of the ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula have spurred much discussion on the various processes leading to their eventual dramatic collapse, but without a consensus on an atmospheric forcing that could connect these processes. Here, using an atmospheric river detection algorithm along with a regional climate model and satellite observations, we show that the most intense atmospheric rivers induce extremes in temperature, surface melt, sea-ice disintegration, or large swells that destabilize the ice shelves with 40% probability.

This was observed during the collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves during the summers of 1995 and 2002 respectively. Overall, 60% of calving events from 2000–2020 were triggered by atmospheric rivers. The loss of the buttressing effect from these ice shelves leads to further continental ice loss and subsequent sea-level rise. Under future warming projections, the Larsen C ice shelf will be at-risk from the same processes.


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Atmospheric Methane Increases on a Tear + Ideas on Methods like ISA to Reduce Global Concentrations // Apr 14, 2022

Atmospheric Methane concentrations are rising like a bat out of hell.

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) just reported that atmospheric methane concentrations rose in 2021 by a record setting 17 ppm, following on the heels of the previous record setting rise of 14.7 ppm in 2020.

Isotopic studies comparing the ratio of C-13 to the more common C-12 show that most of the rise in atmospheric methane since 2006 is due to natural emissions from things like wetlands. With a warmer climate there is much more water vapour in the atmosphere, and this ends up recharging and creating new wetlands.

The La Niña of the last few years means wetter equatorial regions with larger wetlands and thus more methane emissions from microbial decomposition of organic matter in the wetlands. Since methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 on a molecule to molecule basis, this rise is extreme serious for amplifying climate warming. In fact the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of methane is 34x that of CO2 averaged over a hundred year timescale, and 86x over a twenty year timescale, and many reports and media still under quote these numbers in error.

The big question is what can we do, if anything, to remove methane from the atmosphere ocean system?

I chat about a couple of peer reviewed scientific papers that examine this is detail. My favourite method by far is to deploy Iron Salt Aerosols (ISA) to lower atmospheric methane concentrations, brighten low level clouds to reduce warming, and disperse iron on to the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton blooms to capture carbon.

These processes all occurred naturally as the Earth entered cooling ice-age periods in the deep past; and we need to trigger them now. Ice core samples in both Greenland and Antarctica show that this mineral dust had levels 4-7 times higher during these cooler periods than we have now.
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Pole to Pole, with Paul Beckwith: Radio Ecoshock, podcast, 13 April 2022, with super host, Alex Smith:

Pole to Pole Climate Change.

Both Poles are strangely hot. Eastern Australia just had biblical rains; the Pacific Northwest too. Storms and record-setting numbers of tornadoes hammer the U.S. mid-west. This sounds like a good time to figure out what to do. From the results of thousands of scientific papers, experts at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change just issued the last part of their every-five-years reports. It is called the Working Group III report – but who cares? The world is sick, broke, and at war right now.

Why is weather so strange so soon? What does the IPCC say we can do about catastrophic climate change? Paul Beckwith is the Canadian climate scientist who tracks all this. Paul has attended a couple of international climate conferences, including COP26 in Glasgow last November. He makes summaries of science for the rest of us in his popular YouTube channel.

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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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New Report on Climate Mitigation: Assessment Report (AR6) by Working Group (WG3) of the IPCC

New Report on Climate Mitigation: Assessment Report (AR6) by Working Group (WG3) of the IPCC // Apr 4, 2022

In this video I chat about the New Report released today on Climate Mitigation; namely the Assessment Report 6 (AR6) by Working Group 3 (WG3) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

To remind you, WG2 is about Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change, while WG1 is about the Physical Basis of Climate Change.

Combined, these three reports are about 10.5 thousand pages, which is obviously an encyclopedic undertaking, and I endeavour to read them from start to finish.

This video is a very cursory look at the latest WG3 report, since although I do read quite fast, I have not been able to read the full report yet:)

My GoldenDoodle puppy Newton (as in Sir Isaac Newton) is now 12 weeks old. He is a perfect example of exponential growth. I estimate that his size doubles roughly every 2 weeks. We first met him at the breeders when he was 6 weeks old, and he was tiny!! When we picked him up and brought him home at 8 weeks he looked twice as big. At 10 weeks he had doubled again, and now at 12 weeks, sitting in my lab and licking my face he looks enormous. The three cats were bigger than him when we got him home for the first time at 8 weeks old, and now he absolutely dwarfs them. They are all getting along very well as we struggle to get into a routine with them all. It’s not easy.

I am also finding out that everything I thought I already knew about raising and training a puppy is completely incorrect. I have to start again from square one, according to my doggy advisors, and the literature.

Now that the snow in Ottawa has mostly melted, I spend several hours picking up the yard, since it became much too risky to walk around. At least the smell had vanished after a month.

Ref: Download, full report here. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change
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kkkk

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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Climate Change Risk Assessment: Emissions, Heat Waves, Drought, and Cascading Impacts: Chatham House

Climate Change Risk Assessment: Emissions, Heat Waves, Drought, and Cascading Impacts: Chatham House // Mar 17, 2022

I chat in detail about the excellent Chatham House report on Climate Change Risks to our society.

First I talk a bit about what Chatham House is and does. You may have heard about meetings that follow Chatham House rules, which basically mean that all ideas and topics in the meeting can be openly and publicly disseminated, but no person in the meeting can be identified and no idea can be attributed to any person. This protocol ensures that ideas can be openly and truthfully discussed without any political or peer pressure nonsense inhibitions.

I then go over the key summary and conclusions of the report, and talk about the key ideas within, relating to direct climate effects, temperature rises, heat waves and drought and direct impacts on society via food supply disruption and water disruption.

To me, the most interesting and important sections in the report are on the cascading systemic impacts of climate change on society, and the numerous cause and effect flowcharts outlining how climate disruption impacts and multiplies societal disruption in areas of finance, supply chains, armed conflict, resource wars, political instabilities, poverty, nationalism and populism; all very relevant topics two years into a pandemic that many thing is ending, with armed conflict of Russia invading Ukraine and dictator threats of nuclear conflict and chatter about the possibilities of World War III.

Please donate here to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system disruption. Also to support Shackleton kitty treats, and Newton puppy treats; these two animals are vital for keeping my spirits up during these very unstable times!! Thanks for watching; see you in a few days:).
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Ref: How many people have ever lived on earth?

Ref: Holes the size of city blocks are forming in the Arctic seafloor.

Marine scientists have discovered deep sinkholes — one larger than a city block of six-story buildings — and ice-filled hills that have formed “extraordinarily” rapidly on a remote part of the Arctic seafloor.

Mapping of Canada’s Beaufort Sea, using a remotely operated underwater vehicle and ship-mounted sonar, revealed the dramatic changes, which the researchers said are taking place as a result of thawing permafrost submerged underneath the seabed.

The changes the scientists observed occurred between 2010 and 2019, during which four mapping surveys had taken place, covering an area of up to 10 square miles (26 square kilometers).’

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Survival Saga of Shackleton the Explorers Antarctic Journey and Discovery of his Ship Endurance

Survival Saga of Shackleton the Explorers Antarctic Journey and Discovery of his Ship Endurance // Mar 11, 2022

Amazingly, Sir Ernest Shackleton ship Endurance has just been found in 10,000 feet of ice covered water in the Weddell Sea near the Antarctic Peninsula. The ship is so well preserved, it seems like it just sank yesterday. The extremely cold water lacks sea worms that eat wood, and the extremely clear water allowed two undersea drones (robots) to get crystal clear photographs of the ship. Identity of many sunken ships is very difficult, but the Endurance name and a 5 pointed star could be clearly seen on the stern of the ship, sitting upright on the ocean floor.

This story is especially meaningful to me, since I named my first cat Shackleton the Explorer.

I chat about the expedition to discovery the Endurance, about Shackleton’s expedition from 1914-1917, and about how the entire 28 person crew survived the absolutely incredible ordeal in the oceans and sea ice just off Antarctica without the loss of a single crewman.
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Everyone Loses in the Climate Casino, October 31, 2021 (link to rest of article, here)

The analogy of a “casino” to describe climate change related catastrophes has gained some recent traction, thanks mostly to Paul Beckwith’s frequent use of this terminology in his blog posts and YouTube videos. At first, the word “casino” seems to be an appropriate metaphor. “Casino” describes the apparently random way that fires, floods, droughts, heat waves and other climate-related catastrophes are striking apparently random locations with random intensities and consequences. Pick a location and give odds for what catastrophe is going to strike there next. Spoiler: the answer is 100%.

As someone whose career was focused for over a decade in the casino industry (my casino website is advancedadvantageplay and my YouTube channel is AdvancedAdvantagePlay), I am not comfortable with this analogy. One of my primary activities as a consultant in the industry was finding legal ways to beat casino games and writing about those methods. I also devoted considerable mathematical energy to analyzing “normal” outcomes for games and identifying issues with games based on a risk-analysis of historical outcomes. My understanding of the mathematical risks associated with climate change comes directly from my understanding of risks the player and house are taking in a casino setting.

What is true (and you may have an aunt or uncle who can testify to this) is that in casinos there are always long-term winners, just by chance. There are people who don’t know anything about the games they play who just by the grace of being that lucky statistical outlier (which must exist) end up beating the house for months or years or maybe their whole lives. Someone wins the lottery. Someone hits the slot jackpot. Casinos have winners.


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Just wanted to say hi and catch up a bit. It’s a veritable winter wonderland in Ottawa tonight, as we just had about 3 to 4 inches (7.5 to 10 cm) of very wet snow and it has stuck to all the tree branches, making them all look very spectacular.

Puppy Newton just loves the snow, so I filmed this while he was frolicking around, digging holes, running in circles, and taking in all the new sights, sounds, and smells — especially smells — as 9 week old puppies are supposed to do!!
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Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my videos as I research and study and present the latest cutting edge science on abrupt climate system change.lease consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Climate Recap around the Globe

Climate Recap around the Globe // Feb 27, 2022

I chat about recent and significant climate mayhem and extreme weather events around the globe.

There are a few puppy and cat disruptions, but not too many; please bear with me.
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Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my videos as I research and study and present the latest cutting edge science on abrupt climate system change.lease consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Societal Decline of Rationality and the Collective Good; with the Rise of Emotion and the Individual

Societal Decline of Rationality and the Collective Good; with the Rise of Emotion and the Individual // Feb 17, 2022

Is our entire world going nuts?

Are people in all fields of human endeavour, and at all levels of government and corporations losing it?

Are we no smarter than a sack-of-hammers?

Often, it seems that way to me, due to human inability to address climate change. In the last few weeks, with the “occupation of Ottawa” this feeling has been greatly amplified, at least for me and the vast majority of Ottawa residents.

This is not just in our imaginations. I chat about a recent peer reviewed scientific paper that examines the language used in millions of books from 1850 to present day.

This study clearly shows a decline in rationality and science based thought since the 1980s, and a sharp rise in intuitive and emotional type words over the last few decades. Not only is rationality being trumped by emotion and beliefs, but we have also shifted away from the collective, to the individual.

Fascinating study, with numerous, far reaching implications, especially since we need science and rational thinking to preserve any semblance of democracy, and have any change of dealing with abrupt climate system change and near-term (5 to 10 year) global food shortages from extreme weather in our climate casino.
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Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my videos as I research and study and present the latest cutting edge science on abrupt climate system change.lease consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Protest–Occupation–of Ottawa After One Week

Protest (Occupation) of Ottawa After One Week

Last night, during a perfect snowy winter evening, I did my daily walk downtown Ottawa while filming (dk: the “Freedom Convoy” Protests [1] ).

It seemed a bit like the calm before the storm [2], as many more trucks and people are expected to join the protesters this weekend, and there will be counter protests with up to 1000 people, according to the police.

Protests are also expected in Toronto at Queens Park (seat of Ontario government), in Quebec City (at the start of the Quebec Winter Carnival), and elsewhere.

Ottawa’s Winterlude, which normally happens for two weeks this time of year has been relegated to some ice sculptures in an undisclosed location, to be only viewed online.

Enjoy your weekend:)

BTW, this is video 1,010. ONE-thousand or more videos, in seven+ years. And still going. Any donations however large or small, were and are still very much appreciated!
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Ref [1]: ‘It’s been dubbed the Freedom Convoy, and it’s got the country talking.

The movement was sparked by a vaccine mandate for truckers crossing the US-Canada border, implemented by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government earlier this month.

Upset with the new measure that would require unvaccinated Canadian truckers crossing the two nations’ boundary to quarantine once they’ve returned home, a loose coalition of truckers and conservative groups began to organise the cross-country drive that began in western Canada‘ [3].
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Ref [2]: The “Blue Ocean Event” Will be a Tipping Point for our Climate

Let that sink in. They see a linear relationship between our CO2 emissions and ice melting, and the rate of ice melting is accelerating.

Based on this and other research, Beckwith believes the most likely scenario is the following: After the first Blue Ocean Event (less than 1 million square kilometres of ice left) with open water in September, within a few years, open water will occur for August, September, and October. Within a few more years, July and November will also become ice-free.

Within a decade the entire Arctic Ocean will be ice-free. This will accelerate the positive feedback loop, where reflective, absorbent ice melts to heat-absorbing less reflective water, thus accelerating the already dangerous rate of warming. This, as Beckwith says, is how the BOE will crush humanity like a bug‘.
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Ref [3] Day 1 of Toronto protest strikes a different tone than Ottawa, ‘Day 1 of the trucker protest in Toronto wasn’t quite over but as the supper hour approached it was clearly a much different experience than what we’ve seen in Ottawa over the past week or more. Throughout the afternoon people gathered waving flags and signs, singing, chanting and even playing volleyball in the streets.’
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lease consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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