Food Supply Threats from Ongoing Catastrophic FLOODING in US Midwest

 

Food Supply Threats from Ongoing Catastrophic FLOODING in US Midwest // Apr 12, 2019

I chat about ongoing US Midwest misery from a deep, persistent jet stream trough. After a cold snowy winter, a “bomb cyclone” dumped up to 5 feet of snow over a wide area; then another hit the region; the forecast indicates the possibility of a third event. These storms occur over the ocean as well known “nor’easter’s”, but rarely over land. Ongoing rain and snow from ongoing storm trains flooded many farms, and destroyed stored grains. Normal April planting is not happening. Not good for our food supply.
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Three other recent videos:

Chat on Persistent Cold Blob over North America // Apr 5, 2019

Our destabilizing climate has many unpleasant surprises over our entire planet. The Arctic is warmer than normal by 5.7C; Antarctica is 2.4C colder than normal.

A long-term, stuck Rossby wave trough of the jet stream gave North America a cold blob:

  • Basically a “global warming hole”while the rest of the planet baked.
  • As the Arctic “center of cold” shifts from the North Pole to central Greenland (83 degrees N latitude),
  • This cold blob could become a frequent feature as we near a Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic.
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Climate System Upheaval: Arctic Sea-Ice, Snow Cover, Jet-Stream, Monsoonal Consequences // Apr 6, 2019

As Arctic sea-ice plunges to record lows, many pundits are calling for a near-term Blue Ocean Event in which the entire Arctic Ocean is essentially devoid of ice. In my last video analysis (and this one), I chat:

  • Time frames for increasing duration of the open ocean state, from 1 month to 3 to 5 and then to year-round.
  • I emphasize the overlooked but equally important loss of terrestrial snow cover to make the Arctic a very dark and hot place. I discuss:
  • Changes to jet streams, including a 17 degree latitude shift south in its center of rotation, and
  • Changes to weather drivers from jet-stream to monsoonal, even in the Arctic.
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Arctic Sea-Ice Collapse Accelerating. What Next? // Apr 6, 2019

Continue last video, on Climate System Upheaval, left off.

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State of Climate: Not Good at All, Faster Than Expected

State of the Climate: NOT Good at All // Apr 2, 2019

Second of two videos.  Every spring, for the past 25 years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) releases their State of the Climate report. This years edition clearly shows how dire our climate situation is becoming.

Just when you think it can’t get worse, it does. In this, and the next few videos, I chat on highlights and key points that are in the report, which I highly recommend you read as well. Consequences to us and all other species on our planet are profound.

Ref: ‘Climate Change: Global Impacts ‘Accelerating’‘, 28 March 2019:  ‘The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says that the physical and financial impacts of global warming are accelerating.  Record greenhouse gas levels are driving temperatures to “increasingly dangerous levels”, it says.  Their report comes in the same week as the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a surge in CO2 in 2018‘.

Ref:  ‘Global Climate Indicators‘:  ‘The Global Climate Indicators are a set of parameters that describe the changing climate without reducing climate change to only temperature.

They comprise key information for the most relevant domains of climate change: temperature and energy, atmospheric composition, ocean and water as well as the cryosphere.’

WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate‘, click here to download 44 pp. PDF, 1233_en.
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State of the Climate: FASTER than Expected // Mar 30, 2019

First of two videos.  Above video was second.
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Two-Way Connections Between Arctic & World, Record Northern Temps

Two-Way Connections Between the Arctic and the rest of the Globe // Mar 26, 2019

Third video. I discuss a new UN Environmental Report titled “Global Linkages: A Graphic Look at the Changing Arctic” (Google it!). Mainstream Media focused on only one small part of the report (namely the question as to whether 3-5C of warming is locked-in for the Arctic) and ignored the rest of the report.

The report contains many excellent graphics that I chat about, namely the:

  • Cryosphere, permafrost,
  • Short-lived climate pollutants, persistent organic pollutants,
  • Ocean acidification, plastics, mercury, and
  • Biodiversity, including migration and invasive species.

Ref:  click to download Linkages, report Arctic_Graphics, large PDF here.
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Linkages from Globe to Arctic and from Arctic to Globe /// Mar 24, 2019

Second Video. ‘Most of the territory sweltered in record or near-record temperatures, triggering concern over rapidly disintegrating ice roads, a call in some quarters for government action on climate change, and even a warning about rotting meat‘.

Refs:  ‘For first time since records began, NWT hits 20C in March‘.  20 Mar, 2019,

The Northwest Territories highway system:  ‘Highways and Winter Roads‘.
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Record Temperatures 20-25C Above Norm in far North /// Mar 23, 2019

First Video. The Northwest Territories of Canada had March temperatures above 20C for the first time (hit 21.6C or 71F); breaking norms by 20-25C (normal is below freezing). I discuss a new study from UN Environment that made global news about the inevitability of sharp rises in temperature being locked in.

Arctic temperature amplification has mostly been due to:

  • Albedo declines with reduced sea-ice and land snow cover.
  • Wavy jet streams bring heat (sensible and latent) to the Arctic;
  • Arctic air moved south in a big blob over North America, and
  • Ocean mixing brings heat from depth to the surface to melt out ice.

Refs:  Factcheck 22 March 2019: ‘Is 3-5C of Arctic warming now ‘locked in?

Appears phrase I originated years back, continues to make its way into the mainstream press now.  Timely recent example.  One among several:

Sharp rise in Arctic temperatures now inevitable – UN‘.

Climate Model: Temperature Change (RCP 2.6) – 2006 – 2100‘.
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Faster Than Expected, Earth Spasms: Abrupt Climate Change

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Faster Than Expected Abrupt Climate Change Wisdom // Mar 12, 2019

Fourth video in prior series, from Tuesday, called ‘Reflections on Abrupt Climate Change‘.
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Earth Spasms from Profoundly Abrupt Climate Change  // Mar 12, 2019

Fourth view in this by now, four part series.
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Reflections on Abrupt Climate Change

Reflections on Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 11, 2019

For many years, myself and colleagues at AMEG (Arctic Methane Emergency Group; founded by John Nissen in the UK) have brainstormed on how risky our rapidly accelerating climate destabilization is to all ecosystems on Earth, including humanities, and what we need to do about it [1].

In this first of a series of videos, I chat on abrupt climate changes in the past, what is happening now, and what we can expect in the near future.
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The Latest and Not-So-Greatest on Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 11, 2019

Second of two videos.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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[1] While the first link is not current, we share them as they are nevertheless still representative.  The second one is to the Facebook AMEG Page. Paul also writes about AMEG, here:  Arctic Methane Emergency Group: Plea to G20 Leaders, from July 07, 2017.

Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Science, Uncategorized, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Rise of the METHANE Over Time and Latitude, Two Videos

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Rise of The METHANE; Latest Science on Temporal and Spatial Variations: 1 of 2 // Feb 26, 2019

Since 2007 atmospheric methane concentrations have risen strongly; average rate 7 ppb per year. Methane’s Global-Warming Potential multiplies warming vs. CO2 by 34x, 86x, and 150-200x on time scales of 100 years, 20 years, and a few years, respectively.

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Total radiative forcing of methane is rapidly catching that of CO2, making Paris targets nearly impossible to reach without emergency actions.

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Here, and next video, I chat on latest methane science; including spatial and temporal variation, isotopic changes, emission locations, etc…
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Rise of the METHANE Over Time and Latitude: 2 of 2 // Feb 28, 2019

Second video in same series on rise of Methane.

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Ref: Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014‐2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement
Nisbet, Manning, Dlugokencky,Fisher, Lowry:  First published: 05 February 2019:

The increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1775 ppb in 2006 to 1850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio  has shifted, in a new trend to more negative values that have been observed worldwide for over a decade.

‘The causes of methane’s recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and sub‐tropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive.

‘The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/yr in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden‘.
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Ref:  The Evolution of Radiative Forcing Bar-Charts, Filed under: Climate Science Greenhouse gases IPCC — gavin @ 7 October 2013:

As part of the IPCC WG1 SPM (pdf) released last Friday, there was a subtle, but important, change in one of the key figures – the radiative forcing bar-chart (Fig. SPM.4). The concept for this figure has been a mainstay of summaries of climate change science for decades, and the evolution over time is a good example of how thinking and understanding has progressed over the years while the big picture has not shifted much.’
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Quadfecta: Bo, Bis, Bit, Bimus: Glacialis Detrimentum

LECTURE ONE: How Abrupt Climate Change is Redrawing the Map // Feb 20, 2019

In my last video I skated on Ottawa’s frozen Rideau Canal and RANTed about abrupt climate change redrawing planetary maps. Now, in the next few video LECTUREs, I show you new peer reviewed scientific papers (free) supporting what I RANTed about.

 

Tropics are growing by 30 miles (0.5 degrees latitude) per decade; Hadley Cell expansion, but a “tropic squeeze” shrinking is occurring in equatorial regions with heavy rains (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, or ITCZ). Since 1920, Sahara Desert has grown by 10%, advancing as much as 500 miles northward.
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LECTURE TWO: Abrupt Climate Change Disruption of Your Life // Feb 21, 2019

People used to have to move to experience a new climate. Now, you just have to wait a few years. The North American 100th meridian separating the dry West from the wetter East shifted 140 miles east since 1980.

 

US Tornado Alley has moved 500 miles east in 30 years. Dorothy, it’s no longer in Kansas. Plant Hardiness Zones migrate Northward 13 miles per decade.

Canada’s Permafrost line has moved 80 miles north in 50 years. Wheat Belts are march poleward up to 160 miles per decade; southern Australia’s is pushing into the sea.
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LECTURE THREE: Your City’s Climate is Shifting Beneath Your Feet // Feb 22, 2019

Thousands of northern lakes no longer freeze up. Amplified warming at high latitudes changed annual ice cover to intermittent or no ice when mean annual surface air temperature exceeds 8.4 C, subject to other factors (lake depth; size, lake elevation; coastline complexity).

A peer-reviewed science paper on “climate analogues” shows how climate in North American cities is shifting south-south-west by an average of 500 miles within a generation. See how fast and far your own cities climate is going.

Ref: Startling Interactive Map Shows What Climate Change Will Do to Your City by 2080.  Navigable site, interactive map here:  What will climate feel like in 60 years?
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LECTURE FOUR: Four-Fifths of Coldest Arctic Air Volume has GONE // Feb 22, 2019

In this video, I mostly talk on how the coldest Arctic air volumes are gone. In fact 80% of the coldest air masses are no longer there. Not just cold air at the surface, but cold air all the way up.

As the entire Arctic continues warming at rapidly accelerating rates it is only a matter of time when sea-ice no longer forms; Greenland melting will cause rapid sea-level rise. Extreme weather severity, duration, and frequency will also skyrocket, and unprecedented weather events like snow in deserts will occur.

Ref:  Indicators and Trends of Polar Cold Airmass: Kanno, Walsh,  Abdillah, Yamaguchi and Iwasaki, Published 11 February 2019.  Abstract:

Trends and variations in the amount of cold air mass in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere are evaluated for the 60 year period, 1959–2018. The two indicators are polar cold air mass (PCAM), which is the amount of air below a potential temperature threshold, and negative heat content (NHC), which includes a weighting by coldness. Because the metrics of coldness are based on multiple layers in the atmosphere, they provide a more comprehensive framework for assessment of warming than is provided by surface air temperatures alone‘.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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