Surprising Effects: Glacier Melt, Mayhem Down Under, Argentina Heat, Tasmanian Fires, Land vs. Water Temps

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Non-Intuitive Consequences of Rapid Melt in Greenland and Antarctica: 1 of 2 // Feb 8, 2019

Glaciers on Greenland and Antarctica are rapidly melting due to Abrupt Climate Change, and melt rates are doubling with a period of roughly 7 years.  This is exponential, after:

  • 7 years melt rates are double (2x), after 14 years rates are 4x, after 21 years rates are 8x, etc.

In this video and the next I, discuss consequences that are rarely considered, like

  • reduced gravitational pull near the glaciers, isostatic rebound, and
  • reduction of vertical ocean mixing from surface freshwater lensing effects, leading to: increased basal ice sheet melting.

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Surprising Effects from Rapid Glacier Melt in Greenland and Antarctica: 2 of 2 // Feb 9, 2019

Ref:  Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt: Golledge, Keller, Gomez, Naughten, Bernales, Trusel, Edwards.  Nature Volume 566, pages 65–72, 2019. Published: 06 February 2019.

Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. … Here we show, using simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets constrained by satellite-based measurements of recent changes in ice mass, that increasing meltwater from Greenland will lead to substantial slowing of the Atlantic overturning circulation, and that meltwater from Antarctica will trap warm water below the sea surface, creating a positive feedback that increases Antarctic ice loss.’
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Mayhem Down Under: Atacama Desert Waterfall; Argentinian Heatwaves; Tasmanian Dry Lightning Fires // Feb 7, 2019

Climate Mayhem is hitting many regions in the Southern Hemisphere. A misconception is that the bottom of the planet is more immune from rapid climate disruption due to its remoteness from the Arctic.

Even many 1 Percenters and 0.1 Percenters are confused, and preparing Bug-Out places in New Zealand; they are sadly mistaken.  I discuss:

  • torrential rains and waterfalls in the Atacama Desert in Chile (driest Desert in world);
  • heatwaves at the Southern tip of Argentina, and
  • unprecedented wildfires from “dry lightning” in old-growth pristine forests in Tasmania.

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Global Average Temperature Rising About 3x Faster Over Land Than Water // Feb 7, 2019

Last year (2018) was the 4th warmest year, following behind El Niño influenced years 2015 (3rd), 2016 (1st), and 2017 (2nd). An El Niño may develop this year (65% chance) but is not likely to be super-strong, like that in 2015 and 1998.

Since 1970, average global temperatures are rising an average 0.17 degrees C per decade, but that slope is increasing. Rise over the land (0.27 C per decade) is almost 3X faster than that over the ocean (0.10 C per decade).  Land at high latitudes gets a double whammy, due to polar temperature amplification.
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Antarctica Needs a Dentist

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Thwaites Glacier. Credit: NASA/OIB/Jeremy Harbeck

Huge Cavity Melted Out in Antarctic Glacier: Part 1 of 2 // Feb 4, 2019

A huge cavity–4 km wide by 10 km long by 300 meters high–has melted at the glacier base in only 3-5 years.  Total melt of west Antarctic glaciers:

  • Would raise global sea levels about 5 meters;
  • Greenland glacier melt would add 7 meters;
  • East Antarctic plus mountain glacier melt would add 60 meters (total about 72 meters = 238 feet).

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I discuss how melt rates of Antarctica glaciers are rapidly increasing due to warm salty ocean water incursions under the ice; in fact under Thwaites Glacier in west Antarctica an enormous hole— 4 km w x 10 km L x 300 meter H–has appeared in only a few years.

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Ref:  Huge cavity in Antarctic glacier signals rapid decayA gigantic cavity – two-thirds the area of Manhattan and almost 1,000 feet (300 meters) tall – growing at the bottom of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is one of several disturbing discoveries reported in a new NASA-led study of the disintegrating glacier. The findings highlight the need for detailed observations of Antarctic glaciers’ undersides in calculating how fast global sea levels will rise in response to climate change.

Researchers expected to find some gaps between ice and bedrock at Thwaites’ bottom where ocean water could flow in and melt the glacier from below. The size and explosive growth rate of the newfound hole, however, surprised them. It’s big enough to have contained 14 billion tons of ice, and most of that ice melted over the last three years’.
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Huge Cavity Melted Out in Antarctic Glacier: Part 2 of 2 // Feb 4, 2019

Second video, continues from first.  Please consider supporting or continuing to support my independent climate system science research and videos, by donating to my website efforts.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Polar Vortex and Australia Scorched: Three Videos, Risks, Gists, Mayhem

   

Chat on Enormous Risks of Rapid Climate Disruption: 1 of 3 // Jan 25, 2019

Ongoing 2019 climate disruption is fast and furious. Abrupt climate system change cares not about human affairs, structures, politics, our livelihoods, and our precious but precarious civilizations. Disruption accelerates at ever faster rates wreaking havoc on our lives, with huge consequences. Media coverage on climate disruption, weather extremes, etc. in the main-stream is better, but often inaccurate; while risks and consequences are significantly downplayed.
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The Gist of Rapid Climate Disruption: 2 of 3 // Jan 26, 2019

This is the second of three videos, continuing on the same subject.

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Abrupt Climate Mayhem Mash: 3 of 3 // Jan 27, 2019

Quote from Carl Sagan’s The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

I have a foreboding of an America in my children’s or grandchildren’s time — when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what’s true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness…

The dumbing down of American is most evident in the slow decay of substantive content in the enormously influential media, the 30 second sound bites (now down to 10 seconds or less), lowest common denominator programming, credulous presentations on pseudoscience and superstition, but especially a kind of celebration of ignorance.


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Climate Change Disruption, Ratio of Male-Female Babies

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Climate Change Disruption of Baby Male-Female Ratio // Jan 23, 2019

Two truisms on rapid climate change are that a) it affects just about everything, and b) it is happening much faster than expected.

With a) in mind, it is no surprise that climate change is affecting the ratio of male-to-female newborn babies. With temperature rise, there are more male babies born. However with acute stress to pregnant woman from weather extremes like floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, torrential rains as well as from other external events like earthquakes, tsunamis, and war, there are fewer male babies born. I chat on this.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Status Report On Our Abruptly Changing Climate, Two Videos

Status Report on our Abruptly Changing Climate: 1 of 2 // Jan 18, 2019

Here is an overdue chat on our abruptly changing climate. After a hiatus for chess study and competition and to recharge my internal batteries, I am refreshed and chomping at the bit, like the proverbial Energizer Bunny:)

I join-the-dots on extreme events like Australia’s heat waves (50 C; 122 F), eastern North America and European deep freezes, torrential rains in Europe and California, accelerating ice melt from Greenland and Antarctica releasing methane, and huge insect kills in near-equator rainforests.
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Status Report on our Abruptly Changing Climate: 2 of 2 // Jan 18, 2019

Second video, same introductory text.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Jubilee Video, Donation Drive, Searchable Index, Joining Dots: You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

My 500th Video & Searchable Index: Joining Dots on Abrupt Climate System Change: Last Chance to Donate in 2018:) // Dec 31, 2018

Recently released by NOAA, the Arctic Report Card 2018 details profound changes underway in the Arctic from rapid temperature increases.

What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.” Quote: Beckwith, 2009

Abrupt Climate Change; “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.  As Arctic sea-ice hurtles to oblivion, Greenland becomes exposed as the last bastion of coldness in the vast Arctic region. Shortly thereafter, around the world, “the coast is toast”, or rather submerged. Jet streams Kaput
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Arctic Darkening from Spring Snow Cover Loss Exceeds Sea-Ice Loss Effect: Part 4 // Dec 30, 2018

Many people know that accelerating sea-ice loss (12-13% per decade in September’s) is darkening the region leading to Temperature Amplification. However, darkening from loss of terrestrial snow cover in Spring (23% per decade in June) is an even larger effect, and is rapidly accelerating.
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Over several months, we have been laying the ground work, with a view to not only our ‘500th Jubilee Video‘, but having already begun–draft–the large and arduous effort of redoing our useful and valuable but nevertheless ponderous tags, but have also begun to elaborate a database comprised of all of the videos. This is step one of about twenty.

We have maximally provided links, descriptions, and major categories.  This is part of an ongoing evaluation, learning, and exploration process.  A careful collaborative decision was made to take some part of the donations and allocate resources to this concentrated work by both Paul and David–time, effort, and expertise by Paul and material work in preparing and supporting the framework by David.  Viewable sheet in navigable window, here:

This is a read only version, in Google Sheets, which is nevertheless searchable. Link to actual sheet, Paul 5 dBase Dec, End of 2018 here.  Does NOT need a google account to access.

Like in Excel, Word, and Google Sheets, just enter ‘CntL-H‘ to get a query or dialogue box, then simply type a word phrase, to search for information. Of course, hard as we tried to move the ball up near the goal line for the New Year, we are not finished and certainly will be sharing more polished versions. It’s still a good start and fitting after so many video’s, posts here, tweets, and events–dk.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Posted in Activism, Analysis, Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Warnings, Weather | Leave a comment

Arctic Summer Temperatures Set to Skyrocket Like “Bat Out of Hell”

Arctic Summer Temperatures to Skyrocket like a “Bat out of Hell”: Part 3 // Dec 29, 2018

Recently released by NOAA, the Arctic Report Card 2018 details profound changes underway in the Arctic from rapid temperature increases.

What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.” Quote: Beckwith, 2009

Incredibly fast Arctic warming dwarfs the global average and is accelerating:

  • Winter temperature anomalies are highest, followed by Autumn and Spring.
  • Arctic Sea-Ice melt keeps Summer anomalies low;
  • When Sea-Ice vanishes Summer warming will skyrocket like a “bat out of hell”.

Your considering to please support–or continuing to support–my videos with a new–or renewed–donation, with a view to a present for my recent Dec 26th Birthday, will be much appreciated.

Soon we will have a navigable video index in Excel/Google Sheets as Paul rapidly approaches his 500th video–ushering the end of a most dramatic 2018, are well underway with a much needed complete rework of categories and tags, and we appreciate all your generous support, comments, donations, and good words.

2,847,540 video views, 14,046 subscribers, and 415,109 site views from 186,576 unique visitors has been a true team effort, with Paul, of course, front and center (dk).  Paul busts his hump with unrelenting, single minded passion, so that you, the reader, can more quickly assimilated the flood of news as we reach or exceed unprecedented tipping points.
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Why Santa Must Move to Antarctica: Part 2 /// Dec 27, 2018

Santa must move to Antarctica. The Arctic is too warm, and Rudolph and his pals are going extinct. Penguins can pull the sleigh. They can’t fly, but neither can reindeer, red noses or not. At least penguins are birds with wings. Santa must do this soon, before Arctic sea ice vanishes.

     

Link to 2018 Report Card is currently not working, due to US Government shutdown.  Once it is active, click here.
 

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Profound Consequences of Arctic Warming: Part 1 /// Dec 27, 2018

The report gets many things right about vitally important changes underway, but is way too conservative in a number of topics, and fails to make predictions/projections about what will happen next, and how soon.

As I chat with you, I endeavour to fill in these gaping oversights.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Christmas Tipping Points or Just Cascading Feedbacks, Destabilizing Systems?

  

Cascading Feedbacks Destabilizing Our Climate System: 2 of 2 // Dec 23, 2018

One global truth: the only constant is change. In the case of the climate system, this change is massive far-reaching abrupt change, highly nonlinear, much faster than expected, highly exponential in many cases, full of unexpected surprises, leaving no part of Earth untouched. In this video (and next) I chat on a new study that makes a stab at:

  • a) identifying elements in the Earth system that are changing,
  • b) identifying drivers that cause these changes, and
  • c) identifying feedbacks and interconnections between changing elements and processes.

         

Ref:  Cascading regime shifts within and across scales:  Rocha, Peterson, Bodin, Levin.
Science 21 Dec 2018:  Vol. 362, Issue 6421, pp. 1379-1383, DOI: 10.1126/science.aat7850.

Ref2:  Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, download PDF version, from BioRxiv, here

The potential for regime shifts and critical transitions in ecological and Earth systems, particularly in a changing climate, has received considerable attention. However, the possibility of interactions between such shifts is poorly understood. Rocha et al. used network analysis to explore whether critical transitions in ecosystems can be coupled with each other, even when far apart (see the Perspective by Scheffer and van Nes).

They report different types of potential cascading effects, including domino effects and hidden feedbacks, that can be prevalent in different systems. Such cascading effects can couple the dynamics of regime shifts in distant places, which suggests that the interactions between transitions should be borne in mind in future forecasts.

‘Abstract: Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types of cascading effects: Domino effects create one-way dependencies, whereas hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions.

‘We compare them with the control case of driver sharing, which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections‘.
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Climate System Tipping Points from Cascading Feedbacks: 1 of 2 // Dec 21, 2018

One global truth: the only constant is change. Second video, continues from above.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Apocalyptic Christmas // Dec 21, 2018

It’s beginning to look apocalyptic
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Jet Streams Getting Stuck: Weather Gone Nuts, Crappy Weather

Why Jet Streams Get Stuck and Weather Goes Nuts: 1 of 2 // Dec 18, 2018

From top-down, big-picture thinking on the climate system, it is clear that when Arctic temperatures increase much faster than lower latitude temperatures, the jet streams must slow down and become wavier; in fact I have discussed this since 2010.

Peer-reviewed science is finally catching up. In this and the next video, I chat on:

  • Jet streams (planetary waves; Rossby waves) getting stuck in place, with:
  • Large ridges and troughs,
  • Causing extreme weather events via Quasi-Resonant Amplification.

Ref:  link to Earth Null School, 250 mb, here (1).

Google Scholar, ‘Jet-Streams’ sorted by date/relevance, link here (2), and

And from Michael Mann’s website, Research:  ‘Mann, M.E., Rahmstorf … Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events: The role of quasi-resonant amplification, Science Advances’–link to MannEtAlScienceAdvances18 (3).
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Crappy Weather From Stuck Jet Streams: 2 of 2 // Dec 18, 2018

My job is to join-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change and teach you. Your please considering donating in support of the continuation and furtherance of my work is greatly appreciated.
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Noam Chomsky – Political Betrayal, Mobilizing Action


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Some other recent videos from Paul’s vast promethean output:


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Methane Levels from Copernicus, Rise Literally Off-the-Charts

         

Comparing Methane Levels from Copernicus, MetOps, and Ground Data: 1 of 2 // Dec 12, 2018

Methane levels are rapidly increasing globally. Methane release in the Arctic from thawing terrestrial and marine permafrost, and from methane clathrates on shallow continental shelves are a huge and ever increasing risk.

  • I compare and contrast methane observations from satellites (Copernicus and MetOp1) and from
  • Ground flask measurements to see what is happening now;
  • I chat about the colour legend change for the Copernicus data,
  • which was offset by 100 ppb, and what that means, and why.

Link to See More Rocks post, Large heat anomalies in Pacific Right Now by Robin Westenra [Addenda, Fri 13-Nov:  Reconsidering the large increase in methane emissions].

Link to Trends in Atmospheric Methane, NOAA.org.


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Global Methane Rise Literally Off-the-Charts: 2 of 2 // Dec 12, 2018

The unrelenting increase in global levels of atmospheric methane went literally off-the-charts used to display methane for the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). Methane levels were so high that:

  • They swamped out the colour scheme used in the map legend,
  • Causing saturation in large red blobs with little detail.
  • The colour legend was shifted by 100 ppb to more clearly show the detailed structure of where methane was being emitted.

I strive to maintain scientific independence so that I can always present you with the total unvarnished truth about our rapidly changing climate system and the dangers that we face. I rely on your generous donations to do this, so please consider donating for my efforts.

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Beckwith at Paris COP21 in 2015.
Wishing now, that he was in
Poland this year at COP24

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Videos on learning and neuroscience, from Nov 30th, Dec 2nd, and Dec 3rd, 2018 respectively:

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Plethora of Dire Climate Reports, Interview on Climate Matters TV

With Shackleton the Cat

A Plethora of Dire Climate Reports: 1 of 2 // Nov 30, 2018

For ages, I’ve been screaming from rooftops, clad in sandwich-boards, on the urgency of declaring a global climate emergency.  Some city’s and groups are now doing the same.

Governments, scientists, and main-stream media are not there yet (or even close) but judging by the plethora of recent reports and press they are inching forward.

I chat, top-level, to you, on:

  • IPCC SR1.5,
  • World Meteorological Organization GHG levels,
  • UN Emissions Gap,
  • US Fourth National Climate Assessment,
  • and Lancet Human Health; all major reports.

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A Plethora of Dire Climate Reports: 2 of 2 // Nov 30, 2018

The Second video.
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Conversation with:
Paul Beckwith on Jet Streams and Ocean Currents
// Nov 24, 2018

Stuart Scott of Climate Matters TV and United Planet, Faith Science Initiative–aka UPFSI–just published a video excerpted from his conversation with me from earlier this year.  As he says:

‘Paul Beckwith and I had spoke in April this year. He explained how the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles create both the jet streams and ocean currents. People need to understand more what drives both weather (short term variation) and climate (long term variation). Paul is well practiced in explaining the planetary phenomenon that drive both. Live data from’ Earth Null School here.
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Another freshly published video from Climate Matters TV, but also from several months ago.  Yet timely:

Another conversation with:
Paul Beckwith, Climate Change Emergency // Nov 30, 2018


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Stuart Scott with Greta Thunberg, the girl from Sweden who is doing school strikes on Fridays:  (from The New Yorker, Fifteen Year Old Climate Activist, Demanding a New Kind of Politics).

Recent:  In Katowice, Poland before start of COP24.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Climate Change Cremation Consequences: Paradise Lost

Climate Change Cremation Consequences: Paradise Los:  1 of 2 // Nov 17, 2018

As people age they tend to think about their own mortality more, and plan their final exit, whether it be cremation or burial. Many people in Paradise, California had no such choice.

They were essentially cremated inside their houses, workplaces, and cars from horrific fires that essentially wiped the city from the face of the Earth.

At filming time, about 1300 people are missing, and I fear that many of these men, woman, and children have been reduced to ashes, never to be seen again. Consequences of abrupt climate change are inarguably horrendous. We must halt denial insanity.

Your please supporting this effort with donations is greatly appreciated.  Thanks also to those who gave recently, or in the past.  Much appreciated.
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Climate Driven Hell in Paradise California: 2 of 2 // Nov 18, 2018

Paradise, a city of 27,000 people in California is no more. A wildfire on steroids, a veritable tsunami of flames, cremated people in their homes, workplaces and vehicles. Drought sucked moisture out of the air, and strong Santa Ana and Diablo winds reaching above hurricane force fanned hellish flames and gave people virtually no time to escape.

The vagaries of the fire, as I explain, torched structures and cars while leaving some trees virtually untouched. Nutter conspiracy theories of energy beams, chemtrail spraying, and HAARP, etc. are dismantled in my chat.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Herculean Climate Rant to Rouse Humanity

Herculean Climate Rant to Rouse Humanity // Nov 8, 2018

I am only wearing a T-Shirt in this RANT as I walk to school in Ottawa. Problem is that we are in November, and I am at at latitude 45 N and it is a balmy 10 C (50 F). Dude, where is winter?? I chat on:

  • Rapid Climate Change, Arctic darkening,
  • Hope vs Hopelessness, Compassion, Resilience, Stoic Stoicism,
  • CDR, SRM, Iron Salt Aerosols, Marine Permaculture Arrays,
  • Sulphur, Biomimicry, Trees,
  • Artificial Cement, Sucking Carbon from the Sky and Water, and a lot of other cooling things.

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Mini-Tsunami in Flooded Quarry, and Cement Chat // Nov 11, 2018

About a week ago, in this water filled quarry in Quebec, a rock wall collapsed, generating a tsunami that crossed the lake, picking up sand and rocks from the lake floor and casting them on the far shoreline. There was some damage to docks, etc; the amazing thing was that a submerged airplane in 25 feet of water was moved several feet by the force of the wave. Not sure if the sunken submarine at 60 feet depth was moved.

My 16yr old son had four scuba dives here this weekend, to successfully complete his scuba certification. I hiked around the site and chat about ideas to make cement limestone from CO2 that is captured from the atmosphere; this has great potential scalability.
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Nature Bats Last 2018 | October 5, 2019 | Guy McPherson, Paul Beckwith & Kevin Hester.  This was previously published as, The Case for Declaring a Climate Emergency, from the previous podcast, which Paul shared on October 27th.  Here is a convenient video version:


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Extinction Radio Interview, Kevin Anderson and Paul Beckwith, Episode 95, 5th November 2018, linked here.
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Climate or Bust, a Global Reckoning, Published by Revolt Against Plutocracy, Nov 7, 2018


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Trifecta: Climate Tipping Points: Atmospheric/Ocean Circulation, Gary Null Podcast, Radio EcoShock Interview

Climate Tipping Points: Atmospheric and Ocean Circulation // Nov 1st, 2018

Presently, global average temperature is rising 0.25C per decade. However nonlinear, tipping points can greatly increase this rate of warming. Atmospheric circulation (jetstreams) and ocean circulation (currents like the AMOC, or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) can switch state behaviour and quickly rocket us up to a much different, chaotic world. In this video, the first of two parts, I chat about the risks of these tipping points being triggered.
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Global Circulation Tipping Points in the Atmosphere and Oceans // Oct 30, 2018

In this second video, I continue to chat about the risks of these tipping points being triggered.
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A review of the IPCC report and updates on the status of global climate change, The Gary Null Show – 10.17.18.  Replay at link, or Podbean download here.  While the entire episode is 59:13 long, Paul’s segment starts at the 41:10 mark.

Key segment at 56:10:  Paul talks about impact, four to ten years out of BOE, ‘blue ocean event’, shift of center of gravity of extreme cold to Greenland, global food shortages, and urgency of declaring then acting on our global climate emergency.

Dr. Null’s patently conceived show introductions–where he outlines what to expect–are impeccably clear.  By all means, listen to the entire show, but those on short shift can zone in on the part framing Paul, by going to the 1:04 mark.

It was a great honor for Paul to be on Gary Null’s show again.  For those of you in Canada perchance unfamiliar, or in Europe who might not know him at all, Dr. Null has for decades helped listeners with diet and nutrition, in all aspects of holistic or clean, correct living.  His reputation is of the highest standard in the USA and has been heard probably by over 20M–or more–listeners, maybe 50M…

He is a sound voice of clear-eyed reason in all aspect of healing.  This must necessarily now include our home, planet earth.  To be clear:  how can it be that a widely regarded show focused on nutrition again hosts a climate system scientist?  Because ‘as it is above (outside), so it is below (inside, dk):

Paul ‘chats about the latest scientific developments on “faster than expected” climate change, and ineffectual human responses rather lack of responses’.
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Big Trouble on a Small Planet, Alex Smith, Radio EcoShock, posted Wed 24 October, 2018.

Here is a link for the Lo-Fi version of the show (Paul is the whole show)

Welcome to a stormy world. Canadian climate scientist Paul Beckwith and I cover the breaking science news behind the big storms and strange times. It’s not just you: the record weather on the outside, with a climate shift behind it all. From a hot Arctic to the hurricanes we investigate the big picture, while Billionaires tell us to “get used to it”‘.

As Alex goes on to say:  ‘When we need the big picture on continuing extreme weather, I call Paul Beckwith. He’s got the cutting science behind the scenes. Next up on Radio Ecoshock we travel to the atmosphere with specialist scientists like John Lin from Utah and from the UK, Edward Hanna.

Famous American scientist Michael Mann is coming up – plus two interviews with lead scientists on that alarming news about way more heat in the ocean! Along the way, we discover why all the computing power behind Bit Coin can – all by itself – take us to the two degree C. danger zone. When scientists are on edge, they talk directly and fully to you on Radio Ecoshock‘.
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Artifacts of a colder Canada, soon to only
appear in memories and museums.
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Cornel West: on fighting fascism; Lee Gelernt: on child separation; Paul Beckwith: on climate emergency

Choices of links to show, here and here:  It is delightful to be on Dougie Hanson, The Abolitionist’s show, Voices of Dissent again:  ‘One Person, One Vote: anything less diminishes democracy‘.
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Above is image, not navigable video.

Clip from a few weeks ago:  CTV News Channel Interview:   Hurricane Michael.  ‘Recent weather events are certainly sounding the alarm on climate change. Climate system scientist, Paul Beckwith, joins us for his insight’.
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Abandoned car on an island connected with a bridge
to the mainland; bridge was removed in 1950s…

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Freakishly Slow Sea Ice Regrowth, Interviewed by Kevin Hester on NBL

    

Freakishly Slow Sea Ice Regrowth: 1 of 2 // Oct 26, 2018

Arctic sea ice regrowth in October is freakishly slow. We are at record low ice extent for late October; even lower than the 2012 minimum. In this video, and the next, I chat about:

  • Beaufort Gyre stalling and reversal,
  • atmospheric and ocean circulation changes,
  • sea-surface and water column temperatures,
  • salinities,
  • heat transport, and much more.

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Freakishly Slow Sea Ice Regrowth: 2 of 2 // Oct 26, 2018

Second video continues as before.  And since formation in 2015, there have been two permanent hot spots in the oceans off Svalbard, with water temperatures at 78 degrees latitude North of 18.5 degrees Celsius in late October.

 
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The Case for Declaring a Climate Emergency, Paul was a guest on Nature Bats Last three weeks ago, here.  He was interviewed by super activist, spokesperson for the earth, and good friend and supporter of Dr. Guy McPherson, Mr. Kevin Hester–himself quite a person in his own right!  Not to be missed!  57:25 long.


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.  Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Flaws in IPCC Report: Abrupt Cryospheric Tipping Elements in Climate System

Abrupt Cryospheric Tipping Elements in Climate System // Oct 18, 2018

Computer modelling simulations of climate change have a very difficult time accounting for abrupt, nonlinear state changes, also known as tipping points. Since IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, including the sr15_ts (download PDF of sr15_ts here):

  • Rely too much on computer models,
  • They tend to understate the urgency and emergency state of ongoing abrupt climate change.

In this video I discuss the main broad-brush tipping points in the climate system, with a focus on the cryosphere (frozen regions).

Canada on October 17th

Ref:  Tipping Elements – the Achilles Heels of the Earth System, from the Potsdam Institute fro Climate Impact Research.
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More On Abrupt Cryospheric Tipping Elements in Climate System // Oct 19, 2018

Continuation of Thursday’s video on how computer modelling simulations of climate change have a very difficult time accounting for abrupt, nonlinear state changes, also known as tipping point, relying too much on computer models, understating urgency of climate change.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

      

I visited the Mosaica exhibit in Gatineau; huge plant displays; amazing art!!

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Ref: Hurricane Michael Reminded America Why Climate Change is a National Security Risk, For the Air Force, Climate Change Just Got Personal.

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Abrupt Climate Change Will Rapidly Blow Past 1.5C and 2C

Abrupt Climate Change Will Rapidly Blow Past 1.5C and 2C // Oct 10, 2018

As I filmed today, yet another massive hurricane has just come ashore in Florida’s panhandle. Hurricane Michael, at 155 mph (1 mph shy of Cat. 5) appeared almost out of nowhere and strengthened rapidly in the way too-warm Gulf of Mexico.

This video is not just on this storm, but:

  • Primarily on the human/media/global storm that has arisen with the release of the IPCC 1.5C report on our present state of the climate system, and
  • Whether or not we can keep global temperature rise to 1.5C or even to 2C.

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Profound Climate Mayhem With NO Arctic Sea-Ice

 

Part 2: Profound Climate Mayhem With NO Arctic Sea-Ice // Oct 4, 2018

In a few years we face a world with NO Arctic sea-ice. Profound climate and weather changes will profoundly disrupt human societies, eg. severe global food shortages.

In previous videos I discussed timeframes and trajectories for a zero sea-ice state, and a shift of the center-of-cold by 17 degrees latitude.
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Profound Climate Mayhem With NO Arctic Sea-Ice // Oct 3, 2018

Just as in the last video, I delve into heat capacity changes with spiking Arctic warming, magnified ocean waves bringing heat from depth, destabilizing Greenland’s glaciers; also wind reversals, monsoon effects, and bubbling methane.


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Three More Videos On Tornadoes: Ottawa,

Nonlinear Tornado Damage With Rapid Climate Change / Sep 29, 2018

This video is the last of four on the science, dynamics, and consequences of tornado swarms that will become more frequent in northern states and Canada.  The first video ‘Our Changing World; A Tornado Outbreak in Canada‘ was shared Wednesday, here.

We can build new houses to withstand an EF2 tornado by spending an extra $150 to simply strap down the roof with horizontal nails attaching ties between walls and roof beams. So simple and cheap. Wind drag force on a house scales to wind velocity squared; wind power scales to velocity cubed. Thus, below a certain wind speed there is almost no damage; slightly above that threshold there is catastrophic damage. Highly nonlinear process.
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Will Tornado Alley Shift Northward Into Canada? / Sep 28, 2018

Third of four videos discusses dynamics of tornadoes and how they impact people and communities: 

Supercells are huge collections of storm clouds bunched together, with rotation. They often generate tornados, as happened recently in Ottawa, and a few days later, in Detroit. As rapid climate change proceeds, and the speed, waviness, location, and nature of jet streams changes, it is possible that “Tornado Alley” in the US will shift northward, and impact northern states and Canada greatly.

This video
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What Happened Inside the EF3 Tornado Hitting Ottawa? / Sep 27, 2018

This is the second video in this series.  An EF3 tornado razed the town of Dunrobin and moved into Ottawa crossing the river hitting Gatineau; it had winds up to 265 km/h (1 km/h faster is EF4).

  • The forward speed of the cold front generating Supercell clusters and tornados was 80 km/h, thus rotation speed of the tornado was 185 km/h (for CCW rotation, the right front quadrant was 185+80=265 km/h while the left front quadrant was 185-80=105 km/h).
  • Air pressure inside funnels drops as much as 60%; a 1 km wide funnel moving forward at 80 km/h crosses a point on the ground in 45 seconds.

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Our Changing World; A Tornado Outbreak in Canada

Our Changing World; A Tornado Outbreak in Canada //  Sep 26, 2018

After an outbreak of 6 tornadoes in Ontario and Quebec on Friday September 21, 2018 there have been many questions. In Ontario, there was an EF1 near Calabogie, an EF3 that destroyed much of Dunrobin, then tracked through Ottawa and went across the Ottawa River to damage Gatineau in Quebec, and an EF2 in the southern part of Ottawa. There were 3 additional tornadoes in northern regions of Quebec. Is this a freak of nature or part of a worrying new trend?

This video is the first of four where I discuss the science, properties, and changing nature of tornadoes in our rapidly warming world.

Parliament Buildings in Canada, Friday September 21st, with storm carrying tornado behind. Just to left and right of tower (Peace Tower) you can see rotation of Supercell.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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The Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE). When? Then What?

The Arctic Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE). When? Then What? // Sep 20, 2018

We are hurtling towards the Blue Ocean Event (BOE) in the Arctic. Nobody knows for sure when it will happen.

From my analysis, which I discuss in this video, my best guess is that the BOE will happen in 2022. There will be essentially NO sea ice in the Arctic Ocean for a few weeks to a month in September, 2022.

After this BOE happens, then what will follow in subsequent years? I think that by BOE+2 years the Arctic Ocean will be ice free for August, September, and October. By BOE+4 years it will be ice free for 5 months, and by BOE+10 years the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice year round.

   

During this decade of gut-wrenching transition, our climate and weather patterns will be profoundly disrupted, chaotic, and unstable, for example presenting enormous risks to our global food supply.

I am not paid by anybody for my work analyzing and producing these videos. Please consider donating at Please Donate to Paul, to support my efforts at educating the public on the risks that we collectively face.
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Jet Stream Center-of-Rotation to Shift 17 degrees Southward from North Pole to Greenland with Arctic // Sep 9, 2018

When all the sea-ice in the Arctic has vanished from melt and transport, what will happen? This so-called Blue-Ocean-Event (BOE) in the Arctic will mean that the last bastion of ice and coldness in the Arctic will be Greenland.

Thus, instead of the Center-of-Coldness or Centroid (I name it ColdTroid) being near the North Pole, as it has been in human history it will be centred over the middle of Greenland, and thus be at about 73 degrees N latitude.

  • Thus, to first-order simplicity, one can expect the jet streams to shift their center of rotation 17 degrees from the North Pole where they are now towards Greenland.
  • This jet stream shift, causing a decoupling from Earth’s axis of rotation, obviously has profound consequences for our global weather patterns and climate system and human civilization, and plants and animals, and, for example our ability to grow food.

But hey; humans will at least be able to drill and mine the Arctic, at least those of us that are left.
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Stuart Scott, Charles Gregoire,
Heidi Brault, and Paul Beckwith, L to R.

Tonight it was a great delight to attend a FREE Public Policy Meeting at the Sandy Hill Community Center in Ottawa, on:

Climate Change, Collapsing Ecosystems & Unsustainable Global Policies, by friend and acclaimed public speaker Stuart Scott Executive Director of Scientist Warning to Humanity and Climate Matters TV.  His main channel is here.

This was wonderfully promoted and hosted by Charles Gregoire and Heidi Brault (organizers).
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut hits Philippines, Hong Kong on way to 中国 China

Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut hits Philippines, Hong Kong on way to 中国 China, One // Sep 16, 2018

By all measures, Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut is a monster storm. While the eyes of the West have been preoccupied with Hurricane Florence, a much larger and more powerful storm razed the northern Philippines, is causing large damage now in Hong Kong, and is heading to 中国 China. In my last two videos I examined, in great detail, the latest science on Super Storms, and here I show you specifically how Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut is further evidence that abrupt 气候变化 climate change has made our planet a very dangerous place.

As bad as these storms have been, the consequences to cities could have been much worse. Last year, if Hurricane Irma had not veered at the last minute, it would have razed Miami and the east coast of Florida, causing a trillion dollars of damage. If Florence was a bit further north it would be dumping its multi-trillion gallons of water on the major cities of the eastern USA like Washington, Boston, Philadelphia.

We need politicians who understand the reality of climate change consequences.
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Typhoon 台风 Mangkhut hits Philippines, Hong Kong on way to 中国 China, Two // Sep 16, 2018

Typhoon 台风 Mangkhat. Buildings were rolled over onto other buildings. Massive trees were uprooted. Construction cranes were toppled over. Seawater surged into the city streets, and the storm surge broke into the lobby’s of buildings. Skyscrapers lost their external panels, and swayed for several hours.

As catastrophic as this typhoon 台风 damage was to Hong Kong and southern 中国 China and the Philippines, the western media was focused instead on Hurricane Florence dumping trillions of gallons of water on North Carolina, and refusing to leave. These massive Superstorms, simultaneously striking heavily populated regions on opposite sides of the planet are not freaks of nature. They are children of abrupt 气候变化 Climate Change, and those children are growing and getting stronger all the time. Watch out.

  • Denying 气候变化 climate change is criminal, in my opinion, as abrupt changes accelerate around our planet.
  • We cannot trust our lives to rich old white men who dominate the corridors of power.

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These statistics show the power of Super Typhoon Mangkhut, CNN, Updated 2:37 AM ET, Sat September 15, 2018

Here are some statistics that show Mangkhut’s power:

  • Mangkhut was the strongest storm anywhere on the planet in 2018, with wind speeds at one stage of 285 kph (180 mph).
  • Mangkhut made landfall of 165 mph (270 kph), 75 mph (120 kph) stronger than Hurricane Florence that hit North Carolina on the same day.
  • Typhoon-force winds stretched for 270 kilometers (168 miles), the distance between Paris and Brussels.
  • It is the strongest storm to make landfall in the Philippines since Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, and the strongest to make landfall on the Philippines’ northern island of Luzon since Super Typhoon Megi in 2010.
  • On Luzon, more than 30 million people were expected to face tropical storm-force winds.

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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The Science of Today’s Superstorms: 1 of 3

The Science of Today’s Superstorms: 1 of 3 // Sep 14, 2018

The West is focused on the massive deluge from Hurricane Florence drowning North Carolina, with big threats to people living amongst the stinky pig manure pools, coal ash piles left over from power plants, and toxic Superfund sites (witches brews of carcinogens).

Meanwhile, a much larger (double size of Florence) more intense (Category 5) hydraulic buzz-saw of a hurricane just razed the top of the Philippines and entered the very hot waters of the South China Sea heading directly for over 120 million people living near the Pearl River Delta in China.

Just another day on Earth with an effed-up climate.
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Abrupt Climate Change Consequences Are Here Today: Superstorms: 2 of 3 // Sep 15, 2018

Science of Superstorms:

  • Sea-surface Temperatures over 26.5 C.
  • Warm water to Depth.
  • Not much wind shear.
  • More water vapour in atmosphere to turbocharge storms.
  • Wavy jet stream ridges constrain direction of storms.
  • Lack of steering winds allow storm to be almost stationary allowing deluges and 5 feet of rain in places.
  • Water on land surface fuels hurricane (brown ocean effect), so it takes a long time over land to lose strength.

All this and more is discussed.
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As mentioned near the start of the video, David Korn Special Projects has been helping me here from day one and before.  He explains that while money matters, it is ‘like’ thirteenth in his top ten of hierarchy of values.  He seeks to help those who truly want to be able to be helped.  Structure projects, messages, not just mechanically, but strategically.  With both a heavy project management, financial management and sales, and a design background alike, he is a wide angle lens for business, efforts, and initiatives, and personal and professional effectiveness.  He is best used where many factors come into play.  For the fast take on him, suggest the 27:50 mark in this podcast. Segment–about eight minutes long for those short on time.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Our Near-Term Future: What Current Arctic Sea-Ice Melt and Export Patterns Tell Us

Patterns of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss: Melt versus Export // Sep 6, 2018

Following up on my previous video, posted September 5th 2018 as Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis, the summer melting characteristics for Arctic Sea-Ice are definitely changing.

 

Melt occurs on:

  • 1) the top of the ice (air temperature above freezing, melt ponds, water within/between ice crystals, and ash/dirt in ice lower albedo),
  • 2) the edge of the ice (wave action fracturing, water mixing, turbulence),
  • 3) the bottom of the ice (water above freezing, fresh water lens, warmer salty water below).

Also, ice is exported out:

  • a) the Fram Strait (less now as ice retreats),
  • b) to the Atlantic north of Svalbard,
  • c) out the Nares Strait (more now) and
  • d) out the Canadian Archipelago channels (more now; no ridged ice left to block it).

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Further Dynamics of Arctic Sea Ice Loss // Sep 7, 2018

Following up on my previous 2 videos, the mechanisms for ice loss (surface melt, edge melt, bottom melt, export out Fram Strait, Nares Strait, Canadian Archipelago) are in flux.Understanding the dynamics of the melt is necessary to get a better educated guess on when the first total ice loss (blue ocean event) will occur, how long it will last, and how it will precondition the Arctic Ocean for subsequent years.

I make use of Zack Labe’s excellent Arctic Sea Ice graphics to explain to you many of the dynamics of Arctic Sea ice Loss.
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Arctic Sea-Ice Loss as a Pivot Point for Humanity // Sep 8, 2018

Fourth video of a series of four on the changing dynamics of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss (melt versus export) as we tease out clues as to when the first blue-ocean event will occur. Also:

  • what will happen after the first blue-ocean event, both in the Arctic and elsewhere?

How will things proceed in subsequent years, and what impacts will humanity have to face?

Link to Arctic Sea Ice Graphs, here.

‘Great map.  Link to very bottom’ shown here.
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Everything you wanted to know about Arctic Sea-Ice Loss is in my 4 video series; all on YouTube.

My next few videos to be filmed will describe exactly what I expect to happen next.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis // Sep 5, 2018

It appears that Arctic Sea-Ice will hang on for another year, as the melt season draws to a close for 2018. No blue-ocean event this year. However, the nature of the melt is definitely changing, and we can discern patterns in the melt from year to year.

 

For example, at minimum-sea ice extent in Sept., 2014 there was still relatively thick ice (multi-year, and/or ridged ice) north of the Canadian Archipelago, but it pretty much vanished by the subsequent melt season. All that’s been left in September’s since then is ice less than a meter thick, apart from some 2 meter ice hanging on near the archipelago islands. What’s next? When? Why?

Stay tuned for 3 more ice videos.
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Very substantial interview with Jennifer Hynes and Mike Ferrigan, on Extinction-Radio-Ep 91-Sept-04-2018.  Starts around 5:52 mark and continues to past 1:26 or ninety minutes+.

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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

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Quality of Life drops as Climate Change hits Home

Quality of Life drops as Climate Change hits Home // Aug 29, 2018

Where I live, it has been too hot and too humid this summer. Quality of life has degraded. Ongoing climate system change is hitting my home, and is likely in-your-face as well this year; please comment on your own situation.

I chat about heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and monsoonal like torrential rains that are worsening as Arctic sea-ice degrades. What about human responses. Scientists are very worried but lack power. Politics is divisive.

As climate change causes more and more migration, governments become more and more populist and nationalistic and also deny climate change. What can we do??
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Earth Climate System: Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse

Earth Climate System: Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse // Aug 11, 2018

Ten years ago Timothy Lenton (b. 1973) spearheaded a scientific paper examining expert assessments on the types and likelihoods of Tipping Elements in the Climate System. A number of top European climate scientists published an update a few days ago, to get a handle on the risk of cascading climate feedbacks propelling the Earth into a hothouse state.

They suggest that we are on that path now, and have a decade or two to avoid the worst. I fear that we have already gone over that cliff, and I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.
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Ref 1:  ‘Climate change: ‘Hothouse Earth‘ risks even if CO2 emissions slashed, By Matt McGrath — Environment correspondent, 6 August 2018

Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.  Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this “irreversible pathway”.  

‘Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.  An international team of climate researchers, writing in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says the warming expected in the next few decades could turn some of the Earth’s natural forces – that currently protect us – into our enemies‘.

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Ref 2. ‘Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene‘.  Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber.
PNAS August 9, 2018. 201810141; published ahead of print August 6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

Abstract:
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be.

‘If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values‘.
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Regions Will Be Uninhabitable, From Unrelenting Heat & Humidity. Primer on Wet Bulb Temp

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Human Body Limit to Heat Stress from Abrupt Climate Change // Aug 3, 2018

The average persons core body temperature is 98.6 F (37 C). Human skin is a few degrees colder, being about 35 C (95 F).  Heat travels from hot regions to cold regions, according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

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Thus when the wet-bulb temperature, which is the temperature at 100% humidity, reaches 35 C (95 C) the human body can no longer shed heat (sweat no longer evaporates), thus core body temperature rises, and the healthiest person, (editor:  ‘even’) sitting in the shade, dies in about 6 hours.

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The rest of us (young, old, medicated, out-of shape, obese, etc…) are SOL at even lower wet-bulb temperatures.  Adaptation would require living inside with AC, living in caves, or wearing cooled suits; who wants to do that??
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Uninhabitable Regions with Extreme Heat and Humidity // Aug 2, 2018

At 35 degrees Celsius (95 F) and 100% humidity (at 100% humidity this temperature is called the wet-bulb temperature) the human body is unable to cool itself by sweating, since the sweat will not evaporate from the skin. As a result, the body core temperature rises, heat exhaustion and then heatstroke sets in.

A physically healthy person sitting in the shade, in a well ventilated area, is dead in 6 hours. Higher temperatures, and correspondingly lower humidity do the same thing. The very young, old, people on medication, etc. succumb to less extreme temperatures and humidity.

This video expands upon my last video, which explains how many regions around the planet are reaching these uninhabitable conditions.
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Kevin Hester and Paul Beckwith on the Gary Null Show // Fri 03 Aug 2018, NZ

Thank you to Gary Null and Kevin Hester.

Thanks also to super blogger, Robin Westenra for sharing this at See More Rocks blog: ‘Paul Beckwith, Gary Null and Kevin Hester analyse the rapidly unfolding Climate Catastrophe‘.
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Unrelenting Heat, Humidity Will Soon Make Regions UNINHABITABLE // Aug 1, 2018

How hot can it actually get?  What is in store for us?  When you combine the heat domes sitting over many countries with high humidity, many areas around the planet will soon reach the deadly 35 C (95 F) 100% humidity (wet bulb temperature) or equivalent situation whereby a perfectly healthy person outside, in a well ventilated area, in the shade will die from the heat in 6 hours.

Most people, like the very young, the elderly, and the rest of us won’t last anywhere as long, at even lower temperatures.  I discuss the latest peer-reviewed science on how parts of high-risk regions in the North China Plains, Middle East, and South Asia will soon be rendered uninhabitable by combined heat and humidity.
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Antarctica Under Abrupt Climate Change // Jul 28, 2018

The majority of land masses are in the northern hemisphere, along with the majority of human populations. However, we can never forget the Southern Hemisphere, and the enormous mass of ice that sits on Antarctica.

With Arctic Temperature Amplification, mostly from an increase in absorbed sunlight due to darkening from snow and ice decline, more heat travels from the equator to the Southern Hemisphere, with important consequences to air and water circulation around Antarctica.

It is vital to understand how an Arctic Blue Ocean situation will impact glacier mass in Antarctica, and thus sea-level rise Extreme weather events around the entire globe are notching up in frequency, severity, and duration, as well as changing location, and many people are surprised that this is also happening in the Southern Hemisphere.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event Consequences: Air and Ocean Circulation Changes

 

Arctic Blue Ocean Event Consequences: Air and Ocean Circulation Changes //  Jul 28, 2018

It is becoming common knowledge that we are rapidly heading to complete loss of Arctic sea-ice.  Without a course reversal, one eventually gets where one is headed.  What will the consequences be, to the Arctic and to the rest of the planet?

Using my three cats as willing(?) helpers, I attempt to explain how the Beaufort Gyre and TransArctic Drift will reverse, monsoonal torrential rains will attack permafrost on land along Arctic coastlines, with severe increases in methane and carbon dioxide releases from this big thaw.

Our world will rapidly change for the worse as Arctic feedbacks accelerate and the jet streams stall out. We will have to relearn how to grow food in new ways and regions as existing farmland becomes subject to droughts and/or switches to torrential rains. Buckle your seatbelts.
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Monsoonal Patterns Start Dominating Jet Stream Circulation // Jul 28, 2018

Abrupt climate change is hitting humanity over the head with a big mallet this summer. The root cause is Arctic warming at much faster rates than equatorial warming, and the result is a mangled jet stream.

With a slower, wavy, fractured jet stream losing its domination of weather patterns, topography like elevation changes and land/water borders are taking over, making our global weather patterns more monsoonal-like, even in the Arctic as I describe in detail in previous videos.

Human health, vegetation, including crops, and everything else is severely being degraded by rapid climate change, necessitating declaration of a global climate emergency with a proportionate, global response, as if our survival depends on it. Because it does.
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Incessant Body Blows to Humanity From Abrupt Climate Change

Incessant Body Blows to Humanity From Abrupt Climate Change // Published on Jul 24, 2018

If you think that this years heatwaves are brutal, be thankful that we are not in an El Niño, which would have added even more heat to our atmosphere, thanks to energy release from the oceans.

Building on my previous two videos, I show you we have lost all Arctic Sea Ice thicker than 2 meters, and what’s left is being churned upped by a strong cyclone, and undergoing rapid melt, with almost 2 months left to go in the melt season. I clearly show what a “monsoon” is; India’s is the best example but it appears that this phenomena giving torrential rains is making an appearance in the Arctic.

     

These are quite nice accolades and compliments.

 

Ditto!
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Global Heatwaves to Arctic Monsoons: Climate Mayhem

Arctic Monsoons: A New Climate Nightmare // Published on Jul 23, 2018

Please help me wake up mainstream media.  We have a climate EMERGENCY on our hands. Extensive, long duration heat waves, caused by a stuck jet-stream are roasting people in heatwaves around the globe.

People living in the far north, in countries extending up north of the Arctic Circle are enduring unprecedented heat, wildfires, drought, and torrential rains and of course have no air conditioning; why would they.

With the land super-hot for days on end, convective lifting (hot air rises) lowers air pressure at the surface, drawing in moisture filled ocean air, leading to buildup of Arctic Monsoons, yet another “unexpected” surprise.

The big heatwave: from Algeria to the Arctic. But what’s the cause? Guardian, Sunday 22 July, 2018 by Robin McKie.
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Global Heatwaves to Arctic Monsoons: Climate Mayhem // Published on Jul 23, 2018

“I can’t hold it! She’s breaking up, she’s breaking up —” I’m not talking about Steve Austin, astronaut: a man barely alive (Six Million Dollar Man), but about Earth’s climate.

 

Arctic Sea-Ice is dying, with maximum thickness – 2 meters. Stuck jet-stream ridges with massive long-lived heat domes are cooking people, ecosystems, and crops, and creating unprecedented wildfires north of the Arctic Circle, with ash darkening ice and snow causing further rises in Arctic temperatures.

Arctic monsoons (my term) with torrential rains are becoming a new phenomena.

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Methane: Consequence and Accelerant for Abrupt Climate Change

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Methane: Consequence and Accelerant for Abrupt Climate Change // Jul 15, 2018

Abrupt climate change, specifically Arctic Temperature Amplification is rapidly taking us on a collision course to an ice-free Arctic, and is threatening to turn vast stores of carbon in thawing permafrost and sea-floor sediments into methane and carbon dioxide, further increasing warming in a vicious cascade of feedback loops.

In this ongoing series on methane, I discuss details of methane release on land, under the oceans, and chat about how it changes climate. Natural sources are emitting more methane with warming.
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Questions Galore on Arctic Methane // Jul 14, 2018

How much methane is being produced in the Arctic?

  • What exact regions are producing it? Where are we measuring it, and how?
  • How does the concentration change on an hourly basis? Daily? Weekly, monthly, seasonally and yearly?
  • How much climate warming is it causing, locally, regionally and globally?
  • What are the ways that methane is removed from the atmosphere? Can we increase these, and how do they vary with latitude?

We have many more important questions, and not so many answers.

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Arctic Methane and Abrupt Climate Change // July 12, 2018

As Abrupt Climate Change continues it’s accelerating nonlinearity, feedbacks cascade into more feedbacks. A huge wildcard continues to be methane release from the Arctic as we approach and pass beyond a “blue Arctic” event with zero sea-ice.

When there is no ice in the Arctic Ocean to keep temperatures near the freezing point, latent heat processes cease and temperatures of the sea and air skyrocket upward exposing huge methane risks. We really need to understand what will happen with an Arctic barren of sea-ice.
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Japan Crushed by Godzilla-Like Deluge, Floods, and Landslides

Japan Crushed by Godzilla-Like Deluge, Floods, and Landslides // Jul 10, 2018

Abrupt Climate Change wreaks havoc many different ways in different places. A cacophony of adverse conditions is occurring in Japan.  Very hot sea-surface temperatures create high air humidity; winds directed by a stuck jet stream bring this moisture over Japan; it rises up over mountainous terrain, condenses into storm clouds, with long-duration torrential rains for days, saturating and lubricating the soils, making them much heavier so they move downhill in massive landslides, inundating and levelling villages causing mass fatalities.
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I was again on the show, Dougie Hanson, Voices Of Dissent, on Saturday July 7, 2018 from about about 6:45 to 7:00 pm.  Link for replay, is here, VOD HR2 7-7-18.MP3.
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Can You Try to Guess Which One is Me?
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Hotter Than HOT Heatwaves: Mortalities, Ozone, Less Sex, Lazy Sperm, Lighter Babies

Massive Deadly Heatwaves: A Consequence of Abrupt Climate Change // Jul 6, 2018

Many people around the planet have had to endure extensive, long duration heatwaves in early July; some people have not been successful.  Most places are woefully unprepared for heatwaves, and it takes significant spikes upward in death rates before politicians actually start doing anything.

In Canada, the province of Quebec keeps better records for heatwave mortalities, and has reported many deaths; in other provinces like Ontario it will take many weeks for authorities to obtain and analyze data from morgues.
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Climate Change ImpactsAn Interview with Paul Beckwith, by James Cox // May 22, 2018

As he said:  ‘I was able to connect with Paul Beckwith first on March 20th, 2016 and more recently on May 18, 2018. We discussed the current state of Climate Change and what it means for global economic prospects.  Professor Beckwith is a noted expert on Abrupt Climate Change. He is a professor at the University of Ottawa’.  As Paul says:

I think the warming of the Arctic is destabilizing the climate system. The disruption of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the temperate regions is what sets up weather patterns like the Jetstream.

“The Jetstream has basically broken down at this stage. The Whole arctic region is getting much darker due to sea ice loss, which leads to increased heat absorption, which then leads to accelerated glacial and ice melt.”

He continues, “One of the things that is very concerning is people are talking about making changes to behavior and policy for 20 years or a hundred years down the road, like with the Paris Accords. I don’t think we have that kind of time.

I agree with him. Climate change is accelerating — CO2 concentration and temperatures are rising at an increasing rate. As Tom Keene of Bloomberg [dk, recommends:  Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Pimm Fox have the economy and the markets “under surveillance“] is famous for saying, “slope matters”.

Prof. Beckwith says, “People don’t have an understanding or appreciation of exponential growth means”.
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Major Earth Stressors: Methane and Overpopulation

On Increasing Risks From Arctic Methane / Jul 3, 2018

As climate change accelerates, it is crucial to understand risks from feedbacks like methane bursts from terrestrial permafrost (think Siberian blowholes) and marine sediment clathrates (think methane “gun”).   To understand these things, this video continues the Arctic Methane story.

Risks increase significantly as we near an Arctic “blue ocean” event (loss of all sea-ice), which will greatly accelerate Arctic warming, since ice keeps Arctic Ocean temperatures near zero Celsius.

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What YOU Need to Know About Methane / Jun 30, 2018

  • What are the major sources and sinks for methane gas?
  • Are they “natural” or human caused; does “natural” even exist in our world of abrupt climate change?  How does methane concentration change hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, seasonally and yearly?
  • How does it change with latitude, elevation, and even temperature? Why does any of this matter?

Believe me; if, or rather when, it comes up big time from a burst it will affect us all.  This info is very important.
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Overpopulation: A New City (270,000 People) Appears EVERY Day /Jul 1, 2018

The number of people increases by about 270,000 every single day, on average. That’s a new cities worth of people.  Obviously, this exponential acceleration in global population is not sustainable, and puts huge stresses on food, water, land, pollution, and all resources.

What can we do about this?  Ignoring it, and hoping it will go away, or sort out itself, is pretty dumb.  The way it would sort-out-itself would very likely be a massive global food shortage or plague, which is not a desirable outcome, but seems to be where we are headed.
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Human Overpopulation: Expose the Pink Elephant

Human Overpopulation: Expose the Pink Elephant // Jun 29, 2018

A cyclone wreaks death and destruction on delta, with death toll estimates of 15,000, then 2,000,000, settling on 500,000. We will never know for sure, since most bodies were washed out to sea.

We will blame the cyclone, ocean temperatures, jet streams, Arctic temperature amplification, or people for living in harms way.  But we never blame overpopulation. We rarely acknowledge exponential population growth stressing resources and crowding people into tiny regions prone to catastrophe. We must come to grips with overpopulation [1].
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[1] Link to World Meters, World Population, here.
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The Nuts and Bolts Of Arctic Methane

The Nuts and Bolts of Arctic Methane // Published on Jun 27, 2018

In this first of a series of videos on Arctic Methane, I get down to the nitty-gritty.  I discuss natural and human-caused sources of methane, and how humans are even changing these natural sources with abrupt climate change.

I highly recommend that you go to “AMAP Arctic Methane” here, and download the comprehensive report there–or if you prefer, readily aar2015-c1-Methane.pdf here–to follow along as you watch this video and the ones to follow.

The risk of huge burps of methane in the Arctic are ever increasing from Arctic Temperature Amplification and accelerating sea ice loss.
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Gut-Wrenching Arctic Changes Causing Climate Turmoil

Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea-Ice // Published on Jun 13, 2018

Persistent cyclones churning up Arctic sea-ice are bad news. Maximum Arctic sea-ice savagery occurred in 2012 from a massive long-lived August cyclone leading to the outstanding record September sea-ice minimum. We just had a big one in early June.

There is almost no thicker multi-year ice left in the Arctic; what is left is thin, brittle, slushy, darker, and honeycombed with saline pockets like Swiss cheese. It won’t be around much longer; it is headed to oblivion. Russia and the USA seem happy with this. Little do they know.

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Climate System Tipping to Ice-Free Arctic // Published on Jun 13, 2018

Abrupt change always surprises people.  Why? With climate we expect it now. Change that always happens “faster than expected” can not be good for us.

We have stretched our climate to the limit; it is now broken. Like a twig or rubber band that has snapped. We have exceeded resilience limits of the system, and it is now undergoing accelerating, out-of-control change to a much warmer planet, with a warm Arctic and a drunken, meandering, weaker, almost psychotic jet stream.

Unguided storms wander around like a wrecking-ball on steroids, wreaking havoc on humans and their stuff…
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Cows, Pigs, Chickens Dominate Planet ~ Earth’s Creatures Decimated By Humans

Cows, Pigs, and Chickens Dominate Our Planet // Published on Jun 6, 2018

New jaw-dropping peer-reviewed science paper: farmed poultry makes up 70% of all birds on Earth, with just 30% being wild. Even worse: 60% of all mammals are livestock, like cattle and pigs, 36% are human and just 4% are wild animals.

Humans have decimated life everywhere on Earth, including remote regions like the poles and deep oceans.  Lots of the extra carbon in the atmosphere/oceans used to be safely stored in plants/animals.  Restoring a healthy biosphere would do wonders for restoring a healthy climate.
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Human Decimation of Earth’s Creatures // Published on May 29, 2018

Earth’s 7.6 billion people represent an eeny-weeny-itsy-bitsy proportion of all living things; in fact only 0.01% or 100 ppm of total biomass. Yet, since the dawn of civilization, humanity has reduced global biomass (weight of all life) by half, and have destroyed a stunning, pants dropping 83% of all wild mammals [1].

And we are just warming up (pun intended). I discuss findings from a new peer-reviewed study on the biomass distribution on Earth [dk, see link below], and how we have changed it over time. Not good.

Humans Just 0.01% of All Life but have Destroyed 83% of Wild Mammals –Study.  Damian Carrington, Guardian Environment editor, Mon 21 May 2018 15.00 EDT.

Groundbreaking assessment of all life on Earth reveals humanity’s surprisingly tiny part in it as well as our disproportionate impact.

‘Humankind is revealed as simultaneously insignificant and utterly dominant in the grand scheme of life on Earth by a groundbreaking new assessment of all life on the planet.

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The world’s 7.6 billion people represent just 0.01% of all living things, according to the study. Yet since the dawn of civilisation, humanity has caused the loss of 83% of all wild mammals and half of plants, while livestock kept by humans abounds.’

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[1] ‘The biomass distribution on EarthYinon M. Bar-On, Rob Phillips, and Ron Milo
PNAS May 21, 2018. 201711842; published ahead of print May 21, 2018, Edited by Paul G. Falkowski, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, and approved April 13, 2018 (received for review July 3, 2017).

Significance
‘The composition of the biosphere is a fundamental question in biology, yet a global quantitative account of the biomass of each taxon is still lacking. We assemble a census of the biomass of all kingdoms of life. This analysis provides a holistic view of the composition of the biosphere and allows us to observe broad patterns over taxonomic categories, geographic locations, and trophic modes.

Abstract
‘A census of the biomass on Earth is key for understanding the structure and dynamics of the biosphere. However, a global, quantitative view of how the biomass of different taxa compare with one another is still lacking. Here, we assemble the overall biomass composition of the biosphere, establishing a census of the ≈550 gigatons of carbon (Gt C) of biomass distributed among all of the kingdoms of life. We find that the kingdoms of life concentrate at different locations on the planet; plants (≈450 Gt C, the dominant kingdom) are primarily terrestrial, whereas animals (≈2 Gt C) are mainly marine, and bacteria (≈70 Gt C) and archaea (≈7 Gt C) are predominantly located in deep subsurface environments’.   Continues at link.
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Severe Global Water Cycle Shifts from Abrupt Climate Change

Severe Global Water Cycle Shifts from Abrupt Climate Change // Published on May 27, 2018

Freshwater availability for drinking is being disrupted around Earth.

Same for irrigation water relied upon to grow many crops.  Soils are drying out and groundwater is being depleted much faster than it can be recharged.  Alpine glacier water storage in snow and ice is collapsing, and extreme droughts in some places and torrential rains with floods in other places is accelerating [1], [2].

I discuss Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) measurements from GRACE satellites, and changes around Earth from 2002 to 2016, while the satellites ran.
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[1]  ‘This is an eye-opener’: Changes in global water supply hint at future conflicts and crises“:  ‘By combining 14 years’ worth of satellite data, scientists have captured a startling portrait of the world’s water supply undergoing rapid transformation. The new analysis points to areas where there is increasing potential for conflict as a growing demand for water collides with the impacts of climate change. In Canada, the maps shows shifting water supplies that include wetter, more flood-prone regions in many areas of the country but a general drying out in the western sub-Arctic.’  Article continues at link.

[2]  Emerging trends in global freshwater availability.  Really excellent work (dk)

Abstract:  ‘Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002–2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof.

‘Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world’s water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security’.  Continues at link, above.

 

 

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What Happens In The Arctic, Does NOT Stay In The Arctic

 

What Happens In The Arctic, Does NOT Stay In The Arctic // Published on May 11, 2018

The Arctic is NOT like Las Vegas.  What happens there, specifically the rapid darkening due to loss of sea-ice and snow cover is causing accelerated heating, which is disrupting global weather patterns.  Extreme weather events around the planet are increasing in frequency of occurrence, intensity, and duration; wreaking havoc on human infrastructure.  As the Arctic continues to darken, and heat up, these disruptions to our weather and climate will greatly magnify, and threatens global food supplies.
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A Day (Night) in the Life of a Climate Scientist:

I often work late days, getting in late and staying late at night, continuing on my lifelong habit as a night owl.  I was returning home from the university about 2 am last night, when I arrived in front of my house and saw a movement inside my car parked on the street in front of my house.  It was a very dark night, and the street lights are poor.

I approached the car and couldn’t believe it was mine, so walked behind it verifying my license plate.  A dude jumped out of the car, placed a wad of Canadian Tire money in my hand, and bolted to his bike and took off.  Fortunately, it had rained that morning and I was carrying an umbrella.  I ran behind his bike, and jammed my umbrella between his spokes on the back wheel.

He wiped out, got up fast, and bolted again, running and then jumping on his bike. We repeated this umbrella trick a few more times before he evaded my reach and rode off at top speed. I counted out the wad of Canadian tire money in my hand; it was a grand total of 85 cents. No damage to my car; my wife had forgot to lock it up.

In reflection afterwards, walking past my house and calling the police would have been a better plan.  Live and learn. Something new every day!
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Extinction Radio Episode 87, 7th May, 2018 – Paul Beckwith, Carolyn Baker

Video is shared at part two, from 06:00 to 1:01:52 mark: Interview: Paul Beckwith interviewed by Jennifer Hynes (famed, and justly highly regarded climate generalist, of Methane Monster kind, dk).

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Arctic Temperature Amplification Mechanisms // Published on May 7, 2018

Rapid climate change on Earth does not change everywhere at the same rates.  Since 1950, the Arctic heating pace is double that of the global average.  HOWEVER, more recently, according to US CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability), the Arctic has been warming SIX times faster than the global average.  Mostly, this is due to darkening of the Arctic, from exponentially declining sea-ice and snow cover, but there are additional feedback mechanisms as well that I discuss here.

   

Here is the link, to the last post, for those who missed it–dk.
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Testimonial: Learned Most About Climate Change from Plethora of Paul Beckwith’s YouTubes

  Continue reading

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Methane Venting Over Arctic Sea Ice — OSFAS Lecture, WBAI Live

Methane Venting Into Air Over Arctic Sea Ice // Published on Apr 27, 2018

  • Humanity, we have a problem.  We are venting methane into the Arctic.
  • Why?  How much?  How fast?
  • What does it mean for abrupt climate change?
  • What does it mean for Arctic temperatures, sea-ice, and global extreme weather whiplashing?

Using European Satellite Data (Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service; CAMS) I show that methane is now venting into the air at the surface in the Arctic in the Kara Sea off the Russian Island of Novaya Zemlya.

260px-Ivan_bomb

It must be seeping from the ocean floor, bubbling up through the shallow water column and working its way through the sea ice cover.

You may recall that many large “methane craters” have been discovered lately on the Yamal Peninsula (полуо́стров Яма́л) which juts out into the Kara Sea in this region.  This is not good for humanity.

And Paul reminds us that not only are donations appreciated, but go directly to and are used entirely for his research, effort, search for new ideas or solutions, webpage production, his operating expenses like reference materials, books, and travel when they occur.  Easy to use donate button shared below, using links at bottom of post (Editor/webpage producer, dk).
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Paul gave a talk Thursday night, in Ottawa, OSFAS Lecture, at the Metcalfe Auditorium, 7 to 8 pm.  Ottawa Society for the Arts and Sciences:

Abrupt Climate Change, Driving Weather Mayhem:  Where We Were, Where We Are, and Where We are Going.
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Paul was on the air live Thursday night, streamed live with Dane Wigington of GeoEngineering Watch, and author, Economist and Financial Analyst Patrick Wood, at WBAI 99.5 FM, New York, NY.

This was on the radio show, In Other News, hosted by Geoff Brady:  Climate Change Scam?  Or Global Warming Rising.  Link not yet available, but here is the archive location, for zealous fans, end users, and deep students of the climate change discussion phenomenon.
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Ever Greater Risks to Nuclear Power Plants, From Extreme Weather Events

Ongoing Chernobyl and Fukushima Disasters // Published on Apr 26, 2018

Thirty two years ago the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the Ukraine melted down.  Huge radiation releases occurred; estimates are 10x higher than Fukushima. Official deaths are ridiculously low (9,000 people). New analysis recently by Russian scientists assesses the death toll range as 1 to 1.5 million people. Fukushima deaths: 200,000 people within 10 years and 400,000 people within 50 years.
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Assessing the Ever Greater Risks of Extreme Weather Events to Nuclear Power Plants // Published on Apr 24, 2018

Abrupt climate change disruption to global heat flow in the atmosphere and oceans is amping up extreme weather events, increasing risks to nuclear power plants.  Heat waves and droughts dry up rivers making the water too hot to cool reactors.  Rising sea level and larger storms will flood coastal reactors; eg. powerful hurricanes in 2017 posed a huge threat to Florida reactors, not to mention tsunamis on top of higher sea levels (Japan).

Ref:  Consequences of reactor failures, using Chernobyl and Fukushima as examples are analyzed [1].   Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment, Volume 1181 (Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences) 1st Edition [2], Chernobyl Contamination: An Overview, Vassily B. Nesterenko Alexey V. Yablokov–First published: 30 November 2009 [3].
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[1] Pr A.Yablokov and Pr C.Busby on Fukushima victim estimations, link to video.  ‘Alexey Yablokov and Chris Busby participated in the International Radioactivity Risk Kongress in Berlin 6-8.03.2011  [editor, dk:  link to download, not facsimile].   Alexey Yablokov´s with colleges V. B. Nesterenko and A. V. Nesterenko estimation of 1,5 million early deaths in the after Chernobyl period until 2004.  Yablokov mentions even his college Khudoley, V.V. from N. N. Petrov’ Research Institute of Oncology, Center of Independent Environmental Expertise, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia.

‘Yablokov urges to establish rad-monitoring of foods and water, mentioning even marine life forms. He offers the sufficient experience from Chernobyl in areas of Bio Technologies. In the very end of this sequence he even points out the crucial need of independent civil systems for measurement of radiation as industry and state constantly conceal the data, being trapped in the current systems. Yablokov strikes that data based on the ICRP estimation of dose are unscientific and incorrect, leaving governments with unreliable risk estimation models. He even informs that the radioactive milk could be reprocessed to be safe again, as there are BioTechnolgies developed for that.’  Article continues with link.

[2] ‘This volume, written by leading authorities from Eastern Europe, outlines the history of the health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Although there has been much discussion concerning the impacts of nuclear accidents, and Chernobyl in particular, never before has there been a comprehensive presentation of all the available information concerning the health and environmental effects of the low dose radioactive contaminants that were emitted from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant.

‘The official discussions emanating from the IAEA and associated UN agencies (e.g. the Chernobyl Forum reports) have largely downplayed or ignored many of the findings reported in the Eastern European scientific literature and as a consequence these reports have erred on the side of negative findings simply because much of what was known was not included in their assessments. This new book provides a complete and extensive summary of all known research, including that published in Russian and Ukrainian, and provides new insights to the likely long term health and environmental consequences of nuclear accidents.

[3] Chernobyl Contamination: An Overview, link to abstract.
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Global Ocean Circulation: AMOC runs Amok

Global Ocean Circulation: AMOC runs Amok // Apr 17, 2018

What happens if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning (AMOC) slows down, or even stops? The former has happened, and if the latter occurs there will be global chaos.  How close are we to reaching the threshold for a “rewriting” of global ocean circulation? If it occurs, will it be permanent, for at least hundreds of years? How much will already extreme weather change, and how much will global food supply be impacted?
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Ocean Currents Disruption: Slower and Wavier

Ocean Currents Disruption: Slower and Wavier // Published on Apr 14, 2018

Cutting edge science finds ocean currents slowing down.  We all know the equator is warm and poles are cold. This temperature difference causes heat flow from the equator to poles. As the Arctic warms like crazy, heat flow there slows, thus jet streams slow and are wavier; the same slowing and waviness increase happens with ocean currents.  If sluggish ocean currents (slowing of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) halt or redistribute, we are in for a heap of chaotic climate change mayhem.
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How Climate Change Affects Your Home: Two Videos for USA and Canada

Climate Atlas for USA: How will your home change? Part 2 // Published on Apr 12, 2018

Have you looked out the window lately?  You probably notice big changes in temperatures (highs, lows, averages), in precipitation (rain, snow, freezing rain), in storms (intensity, duration, frequency) and in the plants and animals around you.  Find out more about these changes, and see what climate projections say about the next decade, or two, or six for your home [USA].
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Climate Change Hitting Your Home: Part 1 // Published on Apr 11, 2018

How does climate change affect where you live?  How much will temperature increase (min, averages, max) in the next 10 years, 20 years, … , 50 years; where you live?  How much will rainfall change? How many days delay will there be for the first fall frost; how many days earlier will the last spring frost occur? Will climate be better for growing corn; how about for potatoes? I give you the tools to get insight into these changes.  Starting with Canada.

30180800_1996904207004807_506173090_n
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Links for Climate Atlas, Prairie Climate Center, U.S. Climate AtlasEurope, and some on Asia (editor, dk)
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Propaganda and Information Warfare In Social Media

 

Propaganda and Information Warfare Within Social Media // Published on Apr 5, 2018

A confluence of recent technologies are undermining planetary democracies, and negating our ability to act on climate change.  The global proliferation of smart phones, individually associated with a unique identifier (IP address), and thus geographical region, in conjunction with social media information on the hearts and minds of users, data mined and sold to corporations with nefarious intentions has hijacked the zeitgeist of individuals, thus regions and voting blocks and countries and entire societies by aggregating the sum-total of information.  Dark times indeed.

    

Acknowledgements, to Arctic News blog by Sam Carana for use of above image.  Thanks Sam.

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Tugging Heart-Strings to Manipulate Minds: Social Media PsyOps

Tugging Heart-Strings to Manipulate Minds: Social Media PsyOps // Mar 29, 2018

Deep dark insidious forces are working to destroy democracy and destabilize organized society.  Covert psychological operations (psyops) techniques from hideously honed spycraft in the past, combined with widespread dissemination via social media with cascading amplification of messages has shifted balances of power allowing for the control of many by the few, without the many even knowing.

Manipulating minds via propagation of propaganda that pull our heartstrings in echo chambers has insidiously accelerated chaos and destroyed our ability to deal with amplified environmental disaster that topple our towers while rendering us immobile. What to do?
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Climate Dude Rant About Pink Haired Guy – Let Them Eat Cricket Cake

Rant Time by a Climate Dude about a Guy with Pink Hair // Published on Mar 22, 2018

I’ve been long overdue for a rant, but due to the late hour of filming while walking home on nearly deserted streets, this video is, at best, a subdued rant. At worst, it is, well…read the comments.

 

I touch on my recent Grand Solar Minimum debunking videos; on a new book that I am reading by Hector MacDonald called “Truth; How the Many Sides to Every Story Shape Our Reality”, and also on Cambridge Analytica’s successful hacking of democracy based on deep and dark manipulations of the on average 5,000 data points on each persons Facebook profile that they illegally hijacked from a Russian psychologist; as exposed by the guy from Canada with pink hair.
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Climate Mayhem? Let them eat Cricket Cake // Published on Mar 22, 2018

Another rant. Holding the iPhone steady in selfie mode for 15 minutes to film a video tires out the arm.  I’ll have to invent a selfio stick. At least this type of filming let’s you have eyes in the back of your head, which is useful while walking on a path where cyclists speed by.

Have you ever eaten a bug? Great protein. A writer called to ask me about MicroFarming, more specifically Cricket Farming.  Babies grow to fully grown crickets in a month, they croak (with help), you dry them and grind them into Cricket Flour. Yummy. Why stop? I suggested Cricket Beers and Wines as a next step. You never know what you’ll get next; please donate to my cause.
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Interview with beloved favorite, Alex Smith of Radio Ecoshock, Arctic Meltdown – 50 shades of panic.  About 14 minutes long.  Please page down for third of three podcasts.  Thank you Alex.  As he says:

PAUL BECKWITH: BIG STORMS MOVE BIG STONES

In his seminal bookStorms of Our Grandchildren” former NASA head scientist James Hansen predicted mega storms will sweep the Earth as climate change develops. …  After devastating hurricanes like Maria, New Englanders battered by three Nor’easters in the last two weeks must be wondering, are we entering a more unstable world, with bigger storms?

Our regular science correspondent Paul Beckwith just posted a four-part You tube video series with new science on just that question. Paul tells us about super-waves as high as 100 feet (30 meters). Scientists in on the north shore of Ireland have carefully mapped out large stones along the coast. In the winter of 2013/14, several stones weighing 100 tons were moved by the waves. ...
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Radio interview latter today.  After ‘Choose Show’, please page down to alphabetical listing of shows.

Then at ‘M’ find go to:  Monday Night Talk, Monday, March 19th, 2018 7:00 pm.  Queue starts around 8:00 mark.

Topic: A Better Future, with host: Dorothee Saucourt.  As she says:  “The subject of imagining a beautiful future has been with me for a long time, and my objective is really to stimulate people so that they imagine their own vision and create images in their brain.”
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Debunking Grand Solar Minimum in Abrupt Climate Change, Itsy-Bitsy, Two New Videos

Debunking Grand Solar Minimum in Abrupt Climate Change: 1 of 2 // Published on Mar 14, 2018

The idea of a Grand Solar Minimum (GSM) causing weather extremes, specifically cooling on parts of our planet today is deeply flawed (just wrong) and has no basis in reality.  I clearly explain here how variability in sunspots cause tiny changes in solar output (0.5/1361 or 1 part in 2722), and changes in climate impact of about 0.05 in 2.7 which is eeny-weeny-teeny compared to greenhouse gas impacts.  Also, solar cycles, reflected in sunspot counts, are on an 11 year timescale, which clearly cannot explain the abrupt climate change occurring.
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Solar CHANGES Effect on Climate is Itsy-Bitsy-Teeny-Weeny: 2 of 2 // Published on Mar 15, 2018

Many people are very worried, even scared, about abrupt climate change causing extreme weather events like torrential rains with floods, droughts, high winds, etc. increasing in severity, duration, frequency and impact.

Many unscientific theories as to the cause are being invoked (even promoted) either innocently through lack of science knowledge, or fraudulently for nefarious reasons.  The idea that sun changes (Grand Solar Minimum or GSM) are the root cause is utter nonsense.
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My WBAI chat with Dane Wigington, here.

Second hour, here.
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Stormy Weather, Past, Present and Future: 4 of 4

Stormy Weather; Past, Present and Future: 4 of 4 // Published on Mar 12, 2018

In this video, and the last three I have gone into great detail on how wave energy from recent storms has the ability to chew up coastlines, including moving huge boulders weighing as much as 620 metric tons.

Cities on coastlines around the world will not just suffer from the inexorable rise of global sea level, but will be pummelled by massive waves from huge intense storms on top of king tides on top of storm surge on top of land subsidence on top of rising sea levels from abrupt climate change.

 
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Storm Generated Ocean Waves Pack More Punch Than Expected: Videos 2 and 3 of Four

Storm Generated Ocean Waves Pack More Punch Than Expected: 2 of 4 // Published on Mar 9, 2018

We know that massive storm waves wreak havoc on coastal cities and coastlines, but scientists thought that massive 620 ton boulders could only be moved by huge tsunamis from earthquakes.  Not so.

Atlantic storms in winter 2013-2014 moved this gigantic rock, and many other huge rocks weighing well over 100 tons. Wave theory needs to be redone, since the energy in storm waves is much greater than expected. This is horrible news for coastal cities around the globe.
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Storm Wave Energy is Way Worse Than We Thought: 3 of 4 // Published on Mar 10, 2018

How does a scientist find out how much energy is in a storm that hits a coastline?  This info is needed to figure out if coastal cities can survive the onslaught of waves atop sea level rise atop storm surge atop king-tides atop land subsidence.  In Ireland and Sicily, GPS located photos, and on-the-ground rock measurements were used.  In France a camera hung from a kite got detailed rock locations; subtracting images showed changes over time. Bottom Line: Waves pack a much greater punch than we thought. Coastline erosion is much worse than expected.
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I am quoted in the following:  Predicted spike in Ottawa temperatures worries experts, councillor:  Susan Burgess · CBC News, March 9, 2018.

Ottawa is among 13 cities worldwide [1.] that are projected to see temperature hikes that could exceed 2 C in the next decade or so, according to the report from the Urban Climate Change Research Network at Columbia University‘:

Numbers no surprise to experts, advocates:  The temperature prediction for Ottawa in the 2020s didn’t come as a surprise to climatologist Paul Beckwith of the University of Ottawa.

He said, in the High Arctic, warming is happening much faster than anywhere else on the planet and the loss of sea ice contributes to the warming trend to the south. Northern cities will warm much faster than other cities, he predicted.

Ottawa will warm even faster than Toronto, for example,” he said, adding that inland cities will see temperatures rise more quickly than those on the coast or near large bodies of water.

Already, Ottawa is seeing the effects of climate change with this unusually warm February, he said, and people living in the city should prepare for future winters filled with the freeze-thaw cycles that wreck the roads and make sidewalks slippery and dangerous for pedestrians. It’s bad news for the natural environment as well.

We (humans) live indoors in controlled environments,” Beckwith said. “What about animals and trees? They’re used to certain rainfall patterns, certain temperatures.”‘
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I’m on a Panel Discussion at The Canada summer conference, Le Summet Du Canada.

Panel Questions:  A lot of the reconciliation work done by ECCC (Environment Canada and Climate Change) and INAC (Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada) come from direct communication between department employers and indigenous communities.

  • Is there sufficient awareness within departments on challenges facing indigenous people?
  • Are there concrete initiatives in place? Are there any concrete initiatives foreseen to be introduced into the departments to offer sensibility training to employees?
  • How will climate change impact the traditional habits of indigenous peoples; fishing, hunting, etc… and what policies could be put in place by the government (with reconciliation efforts in mind) to ensure the preservation of their way of life?
  • Comment est-ce que la connaissance traditionnelle des autochtones est intégré dans les politiques portant sur le changement climatique et l’arctique en particulier?

On February 14th, the Prime Minister recommitted to reconciliation efforts through the recognition and Implementation of Rights Framework.

  • What does that entail for the current and future policies set forward by Environment Canada?
  • How do policies to adapt to climate change come hand in hand with reconciliation with indigenous peoples?

There can sometimes be conflict between Indigenous groups and established companies over resource use. For example, new rules giving a large percentage of Newfoundland fisheries to Indigenous groups has sparked outrage among fishermen.

  • Does giving authority over resource use to Indigenous groups help or hurt environmental impact?

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[1.] Click here, for downloadable report, ‘Errata_-_corect_version_of_Annex_2‘, listing actual cities.  Shared with me, by Susan Burgess.  Thank you.

Click here, for elaborated report, ‘Climate Change and Cities PROOF‘.  From shared from Google drive.  Sorry.  Please notify me if trouble loading.  We have multiple solutions.

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Recent Storms Moved Giant Rocks Weighing Up to 620 tons: Part 1 of 4

Recent Storms Moved Giant Rocks Weighing Up to 620 tons: Part 1 of 4 // Published on Mar 7, 2018

It turns out that “Storms of our Grandchildren” are already here today.  In fact these storms are already reconfiguring our coastlines. If you live in a coastal city you are likely aware that rising sea levels, large and intense storms with their associated storm surges, combined with king tides and perhaps even land subsidence are encroaching and damaging houses, streets, bridges, high-rises; in fact all infrastructure is threatened.

The energy in recent storms is enormous, and has moved enormous boulders weighing as much as 620 tons in Ireland.


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The tonne (/tʌn/ ( listen)) (non-preferred SI derived unit; SI symbol: t), commonly referred to as the metric ton in the United States, is a non-SI metric unit of mass equal to 1,000 kilograms; or one megagram (Mg); it is equivalent to approximately 2,204.6 pounds, 1.102 short tons (US) or 0.984 long tons (imperial).

Thus 620 t = 683 US tons.


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Paul again, on Extinction Radio, ‘Derrick Jensen, Paul Beckwith, Lisa White, Nicholas , William Hawes, Rob Seimetz, Ian Baxter, Mike Ferrigan and Jennifer Hynes’.

The forth video episode!  Extinction Radio Episode 84, 6th February 2018.’

Paul’s segment, starts around the 14 minute mark.
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New Scientific Discovery: Siberian Atmospheric Rivers: Part 4 of 4

New Scientific Discovery: Siberian Atmospheric Rivers: Part 4 of 4 // Published on Mar 1, 2018

A Russian icebreaker in the Arctic sailed from open ocean water into thin sea-ice continuing into thicker sea-ice and sent weather balloons aloft every 6 hours to record air temperatures, pressure, humidity and winds.  It also dropped sensors deep into the ocean to measure salinity, pH, temperature, and collect water samples.  I describe this work, and chat about the new findings that warm humid Atmospheric Rivers ride upwards on the surface of a dome of cold dry dense air sitting atop the sea-ice, warming the air and disrupting Polar Vortices.
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Topsy Turvy Weather on a Planet in Peril: Part 3 of 4 // Published on Feb 28, 2018

Bitter coldness and heavy snowfalls paralyzing many cities in EuropeCrazy warmth in the Arctic, many eastern cities in North America, parts of Africa, Asia, and Australia. Torrential rains with Biblical floods and landslides.  Snow in dry deserts, and droughts in rainforests. What is going on?  In plain, everyday language, I try to explain what is behind these seemingly unrelated events, joining the dots on our overall atmosphere and ocean system changes that are well underway, and speeding up.


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Posted in Catastrophe, Climate, Climate Change, Global Warming, New Video, Rapid Climate Change, Science, Uncategorized, Videos, Warnings, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment