Climate Change Risk Assessment: Emissions, Heat Waves, Drought, and Cascading Impacts: Chatham House

Climate Change Risk Assessment: Emissions, Heat Waves, Drought, and Cascading Impacts: Chatham House // Mar 17, 2022

I chat in detail about the excellent Chatham House report on Climate Change Risks to our society.

First I talk a bit about what Chatham House is and does. You may have heard about meetings that follow Chatham House rules, which basically mean that all ideas and topics in the meeting can be openly and publicly disseminated, but no person in the meeting can be identified and no idea can be attributed to any person. This protocol ensures that ideas can be openly and truthfully discussed without any political or peer pressure nonsense inhibitions.

I then go over the key summary and conclusions of the report, and talk about the key ideas within, relating to direct climate effects, temperature rises, heat waves and drought and direct impacts on society via food supply disruption and water disruption.

To me, the most interesting and important sections in the report are on the cascading systemic impacts of climate change on society, and the numerous cause and effect flowcharts outlining how climate disruption impacts and multiplies societal disruption in areas of finance, supply chains, armed conflict, resource wars, political instabilities, poverty, nationalism and populism; all very relevant topics two years into a pandemic that many thing is ending, with armed conflict of Russia invading Ukraine and dictator threats of nuclear conflict and chatter about the possibilities of World War III.

Please donate here to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system disruption. Also to support Shackleton kitty treats, and Newton puppy treats; these two animals are vital for keeping my spirits up during these very unstable times!! Thanks for watching; see you in a few days:).
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Ref: How many people have ever lived on earth?

Ref: Holes the size of city blocks are forming in the Arctic seafloor.

Marine scientists have discovered deep sinkholes — one larger than a city block of six-story buildings — and ice-filled hills that have formed “extraordinarily” rapidly on a remote part of the Arctic seafloor.

Mapping of Canada’s Beaufort Sea, using a remotely operated underwater vehicle and ship-mounted sonar, revealed the dramatic changes, which the researchers said are taking place as a result of thawing permafrost submerged underneath the seabed.

The changes the scientists observed occurred between 2010 and 2019, during which four mapping surveys had taken place, covering an area of up to 10 square miles (26 square kilometers).’

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Survival Saga of Shackleton the Explorers Antarctic Journey and Discovery of his Ship Endurance

Survival Saga of Shackleton the Explorers Antarctic Journey and Discovery of his Ship Endurance // Mar 11, 2022

Amazingly, Sir Ernest Shackleton ship Endurance has just been found in 10,000 feet of ice covered water in the Weddell Sea near the Antarctic Peninsula. The ship is so well preserved, it seems like it just sank yesterday. The extremely cold water lacks sea worms that eat wood, and the extremely clear water allowed two undersea drones (robots) to get crystal clear photographs of the ship. Identity of many sunken ships is very difficult, but the Endurance name and a 5 pointed star could be clearly seen on the stern of the ship, sitting upright on the ocean floor.

This story is especially meaningful to me, since I named my first cat Shackleton the Explorer.

I chat about the expedition to discovery the Endurance, about Shackleton’s expedition from 1914-1917, and about how the entire 28 person crew survived the absolutely incredible ordeal in the oceans and sea ice just off Antarctica without the loss of a single crewman.
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Everyone Loses in the Climate Casino, October 31, 2021 (link to rest of article, here)

The analogy of a “casino” to describe climate change related catastrophes has gained some recent traction, thanks mostly to Paul Beckwith’s frequent use of this terminology in his blog posts and YouTube videos. At first, the word “casino” seems to be an appropriate metaphor. “Casino” describes the apparently random way that fires, floods, droughts, heat waves and other climate-related catastrophes are striking apparently random locations with random intensities and consequences. Pick a location and give odds for what catastrophe is going to strike there next. Spoiler: the answer is 100%.

As someone whose career was focused for over a decade in the casino industry (my casino website is advancedadvantageplay and my YouTube channel is AdvancedAdvantagePlay), I am not comfortable with this analogy. One of my primary activities as a consultant in the industry was finding legal ways to beat casino games and writing about those methods. I also devoted considerable mathematical energy to analyzing “normal” outcomes for games and identifying issues with games based on a risk-analysis of historical outcomes. My understanding of the mathematical risks associated with climate change comes directly from my understanding of risks the player and house are taking in a casino setting.

What is true (and you may have an aunt or uncle who can testify to this) is that in casinos there are always long-term winners, just by chance. There are people who don’t know anything about the games they play who just by the grace of being that lucky statistical outlier (which must exist) end up beating the house for months or years or maybe their whole lives. Someone wins the lottery. Someone hits the slot jackpot. Casinos have winners.


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Just wanted to say hi and catch up a bit. It’s a veritable winter wonderland in Ottawa tonight, as we just had about 3 to 4 inches (7.5 to 10 cm) of very wet snow and it has stuck to all the tree branches, making them all look very spectacular.

Puppy Newton just loves the snow, so I filmed this while he was frolicking around, digging holes, running in circles, and taking in all the new sights, sounds, and smells — especially smells — as 9 week old puppies are supposed to do!!
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Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my videos as I research and study and present the latest cutting edge science on abrupt climate system change.lease consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Climate Recap around the Globe

Climate Recap around the Globe // Feb 27, 2022

I chat about recent and significant climate mayhem and extreme weather events around the globe.

There are a few puppy and cat disruptions, but not too many; please bear with me.
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Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my videos as I research and study and present the latest cutting edge science on abrupt climate system change.lease consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Societal Decline of Rationality and the Collective Good; with the Rise of Emotion and the Individual

Societal Decline of Rationality and the Collective Good; with the Rise of Emotion and the Individual // Feb 17, 2022

Is our entire world going nuts?

Are people in all fields of human endeavour, and at all levels of government and corporations losing it?

Are we no smarter than a sack-of-hammers?

Often, it seems that way to me, due to human inability to address climate change. In the last few weeks, with the “occupation of Ottawa” this feeling has been greatly amplified, at least for me and the vast majority of Ottawa residents.

This is not just in our imaginations. I chat about a recent peer reviewed scientific paper that examines the language used in millions of books from 1850 to present day.

This study clearly shows a decline in rationality and science based thought since the 1980s, and a sharp rise in intuitive and emotional type words over the last few decades. Not only is rationality being trumped by emotion and beliefs, but we have also shifted away from the collective, to the individual.

Fascinating study, with numerous, far reaching implications, especially since we need science and rational thinking to preserve any semblance of democracy, and have any change of dealing with abrupt climate system change and near-term (5 to 10 year) global food shortages from extreme weather in our climate casino.
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Please donate at http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my videos as I research and study and present the latest cutting edge science on abrupt climate system change.lease consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Protest–Occupation–of Ottawa After One Week

Protest (Occupation) of Ottawa After One Week

Last night, during a perfect snowy winter evening, I did my daily walk downtown Ottawa while filming (dk: the “Freedom Convoy” Protests [1] ).

It seemed a bit like the calm before the storm [2], as many more trucks and people are expected to join the protesters this weekend, and there will be counter protests with up to 1000 people, according to the police.

Protests are also expected in Toronto at Queens Park (seat of Ontario government), in Quebec City (at the start of the Quebec Winter Carnival), and elsewhere.

Ottawa’s Winterlude, which normally happens for two weeks this time of year has been relegated to some ice sculptures in an undisclosed location, to be only viewed online.

Enjoy your weekend:)

BTW, this is video 1,010. ONE-thousand or more videos, in seven+ years. And still going. Any donations however large or small, were and are still very much appreciated!
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Ref [1]: ‘It’s been dubbed the Freedom Convoy, and it’s got the country talking.

The movement was sparked by a vaccine mandate for truckers crossing the US-Canada border, implemented by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government earlier this month.

Upset with the new measure that would require unvaccinated Canadian truckers crossing the two nations’ boundary to quarantine once they’ve returned home, a loose coalition of truckers and conservative groups began to organise the cross-country drive that began in western Canada‘ [3].
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Ref [2]: The “Blue Ocean Event” Will be a Tipping Point for our Climate

Let that sink in. They see a linear relationship between our CO2 emissions and ice melting, and the rate of ice melting is accelerating.

Based on this and other research, Beckwith believes the most likely scenario is the following: After the first Blue Ocean Event (less than 1 million square kilometres of ice left) with open water in September, within a few years, open water will occur for August, September, and October. Within a few more years, July and November will also become ice-free.

Within a decade the entire Arctic Ocean will be ice-free. This will accelerate the positive feedback loop, where reflective, absorbent ice melts to heat-absorbing less reflective water, thus accelerating the already dangerous rate of warming. This, as Beckwith says, is how the BOE will crush humanity like a bug‘.
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Ref [3] Day 1 of Toronto protest strikes a different tone than Ottawa, ‘Day 1 of the trucker protest in Toronto wasn’t quite over but as the supper hour approached it was clearly a much different experience than what we’ve seen in Ottawa over the past week or more. Throughout the afternoon people gathered waving flags and signs, singing, chanting and even playing volleyball in the streets.’
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lease consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Endless Line of Trucks Exiting Highway Heading to Ottawa Downtown

Endless Line of Trucks Exiting Highway Heading to Ottawa Downtown

Ottawa Trucker Party: Wave a Canada Flag and Demand Freedom

The next video below, was filmed just as it was getting dark as I walked downtown to the Parliament Buildings in Ottawa.

Essentially, on Wellington Street in front of the seat of Canada’s government, trucks are parked bumper to bumper in every lane, not moving an inch. This gridlock is between Lyon Street and Elgin Street, a distance of about 1 km or so, and there are 4 lanes , so end to end there would be the equivalent of 4 km of trucks. The parallel street south is Queen Street, which was already bumper to bumper, and will no doubt be a parking lot soon with gridlocked, stationary trucks (another 4 km of them).

As more and more trucks head into Ottawa from all directions on the compass, I fully expect that other parallel streets will be filled up with parked trucks, sequentially spreading south. Next street for this would be Albert Street, holding another 4 km of trucks. Rinse and repeat. If the total convoy length was 40 km that would take about 10 streets, 70 km would be 70/4 or 17 to 18 streets. Looking on Google Earth, that would I essentially reach the highway, since not all these cross streets hold 4 lanes of traffic.This is just simple math. Trucks are big and take up a lot of space.

The police are out in force, and keeping all the North-South streets open as much as possible.

Of course the engines on all the trucks are running, to keep the occupants warm. It’s -17 C here now, and going to -27 C overnight, with a wind chill warning of -35 C.

I am pretty sure that most of the drivers will be sleeping in their trucks with them idling and running heaters all night.

I wonder if the Ottawa anti-idling law will be enforced, the city could make a killing if they ticketed all the trucks to collect some of that $6 million dollar GoFundMe bonanza? That’s a lot of fossil fuel emissions.

Next time I walk downtown (today I’ve done it twice, and my Garmin watch tells me it was 23,000 steps) I must remember to bring my air quality monitor. I am sure that CO2 levels in the downtown region will be spiking at record setting levels over the next few days. It would be awesome to have a spectrometer and measure N2O, NOx, CO, SO2, CO2, PM2.5, etc. downtown Ottawa. I suspect that some truckers may even get sick sleeping in their cabs all night amongst all the idling behemoths.

Where will they go to to the washroom? Perhaps they will walk up to the Parliament Building and leave a donation? Who knows. Another bylaw broken that the city can collect on if enforced. Many truckers would consider that money well spent.

The emphasis of the Trucker party seems to be on waving the Canadian flag and chanting Freedom with accompanying signage adorning trucks. Also blaming Trudeau, even though the provincial premiers set the rules within their respective provinces.

Who can argue about patriotic flag waving and freedom? I did not see a single anti-freedom anti-Canadian counter protester. No Pro-Repression signs or chants could be seen anywhere.

Of course we all want to get out of this pandemic. This Trucker party is just their way of feeling good by being tribal, being together with like minded people, and having a huge boisterous party.

If you to get high or even stoned very cheaply, just walk along Wellington Street; there is so much pot smoke wafting around with the diesel combustion fumes that the buzz is free, if the fumes don’t harm you.

As for the mandate. I would bet a lot that all mandates will end soon due to the Omicron variant inoculating most of the population. We have been double vaxxed, boosted, and now many of us are getting the Omicron COVID variant free of charge. With the phenomenal rate of transmission of Omicron, it is hard to imagine any other variant crowding it out, so I think the pandemic will be over come spring.

If Trudeau was smart, he would publicly announce in a few days that the mandates will end very soon, the pandemic will likely end, and the truckers can all go home, feeling that they ended mandates.

Thanks for listening to my thoughts. I will read all the comments, as I do for all my videos!!
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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The Climate and Weather Science Behind the Urban Firestorm Near Denver, Colorado’

The Climate and Weather Science Behind the Urban Firestorm Near Denver, Colorado // Jan 10, 2022

Greetings and Happy New Year to everybody.

This morning I was up just after 6 am to go live at 7 pm on Canada’s national broadcaster CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) radio’s morning show, for a decent length chat about my climate scientist thoughts on the recent “Don’t Look Up” movie. I first saw the satirical comedy in mid-December at a movie theatre, and then a second time on New Year’s Eve with my family. I was planning on watching a third time yesterday to prep for my interview, but 4 episodes of Outlander nixed that plan.

Here is my interview: Ottawa Morning with Robyn Bresnahan (7:51 long, January 10th, 2022. Page down).

Is Losing the Arctic Ice a big deal? Posted on January, 2022 at climate site, Court of the Grandchildren [1]

In this video I delve in detail into the urban firestorm that destroyed about 1000 homes near Denver, Colorado in the closing days of 2021.

This was no wildfire; it was an urban conflagration, more reminiscent of the firebombing of Dresden and Tokyo in bombing raids in World War II.

The Denver region was primed for fire having had preconditioning via 150 year record setting dryness, heat, and high winds. This toxic preconditioning just needed a spark to become an inferno.

Downslope winds from the Rocky Mountains reached speeds of 100 mph, knocking over live power lines sparking initial grass and shrub and tree fires. Large chunks of burning embers were carried by the 100 mph winds and fired like missiles against buildings, where they found their way inside homes and businesses via air vents, open windows, cracks under doors, etc. Starting fires within many structures, they quickly engulfed the entire structures, and spared almost no buildings. Bringing to mind similar fires in Paradise, California in 2018 and Lytton, British Columbia in 2021, this fire destroyed almost all structures but seemed to leave many trees unharmed. Any trees downwind and/or in close proximity to blazing structures burned down. However many trees survived, since, I speculate, the burning embers passed quickly through the tree canopies in the 100 mph winds without sufficient time to set the trees ablaze.

One house that was spared, amongst neighborhoods completely razed to the ground belongs to a fellow climate scientist that tweeted out the ordeal. Many climate scientists and wildfire experts and extreme weather meteorologists lost their homes in the Denver suburbs, not being able to afford to live in Denver proper, where they work for NOAA, University of Colorado, and weather risk companies. Huge amounts of data on the fires and smoke plumes was collected by a mobile Doppler on Wheels (DOW) truck and satellite sensors, to be analyzed by scientist including some who lost their homes and neighbourhoods.

A terrible disaster to end 2021 that really points out that almost no place is truly safe from the consequences of abrupt climate change.

Like I say often: We are living in a climate casino and are all vulnerable to Weather Weirding, Weather Wilding, and Weather Whiplashing within our Climate Casino.
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[1] ‘For many years, climate scientist Paul Beckwith at the University of Ottawa, has been warning that we are losing arctic sea ice at unsustainable rates. He says that arctic temperatures are increasing at around four times the global average rate (not the two times often quoted). He predicts abrupt changes as we begin to lose most arctic sea ice in summer.

The reason is simple. In summer the North Pole is under constant sunlight. The white snow and ice reflect 50% to 70% of incoming sunlight, keeping temperatures low. However, when dark-blue water replaces the ice, it instead absorbs around 90% of incoming sunlight, causing arctic temperatures to rise even faster. So what?
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Brutally Cold Outbreaks in Our Climate Casino

Brutally Cold Outbreaks in Our Climate Casino // Dec 30, 2021

Brutally Cold Outbreaks are part of our Weather Weirding, Weather Wilding, and Weather Whiplashing in our Climate Casino.

Although we usually focus on extreme weather as being heat domes, droughts, torrential rains leading to massive flooding, and wildfires, we often forget about chilling cold domes.

Essentially, the jet stream is totally FUBAR (a military acronym for Fuc#ed Up Beyond All Recognition (see that famous line in the excellent movie Saving Ryans Privates).

The Arctic Polar Vortex air has essentially moved southward over the western part of Canada and the US, and been displaced in the Arctic by warmer air.

Temperatures in Alaska reached record highs, while temperatures in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan reached set record lows.

Yes Virginia, it is all part of abrupt climate system change.
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My Christmas Message on Abrupt Climate System Mayhem and on What is Likely to Happen Soon…

My Christmas Message on Abrupt Climate System Mayhem and on What is Likely to Happen Soon… // Dec 24, 2021

I was just out for a walk on a crisp but sunny afternoon near my place in lovely Ottawa, Ontario.

It was a perfect setting for a Christmas video message, to express some of my thoughts on our ongoing abrupt climate system breakdown, and what we can expect in the near future.

I also reflected on why the omicron variant spreads super-exponentially and why I think (somewhat controversially and counterintuitive) that it it is very likely to be nature’s way of abruptly ending the pandemic.

This morning, I participated in a great Zoom Debate with the Topic –
“…humanity should fear advances in artificial intelligence…”

My role was to analyze and give some concluding remarks elucidating some of my thoughts on what was and wasn’t discussed but should have been:)

The debate was excellent on both the pro and con sides of the argument, and I will not spoil it by giving away the punchline on my own views.

A few days ago, the Climate Emergency Forum (CEF) filmed and released a video with the teams thoughts on what we experienced at this years COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland. It is a candid, behind the scenes chat on our group work, and is well worth a watch.

COP26 Reflections by the Climate Emergency Forum Team, including myself…

Please cut and paste this text and share on Twitter and Facebook and other social media, in order to help us get more traction and oomph for our work. I wish everybody a happy and relaxing holiday season, and hope to achieve much myself on the climate and education fronts in 2022. Take care:).

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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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