Arctic Polar Vortex Shift from North Pole to Greenland: Large Ozone Hole and Sea-Ice Loss // Mar 28, 2020
I predicted 1.5 years ago that Arctic sea-ice loss will shift the jet stream center of rotation to Greenland’s center at 73 degrees N latitude. This shift essentially occurred, at least temporarily, about one week ago; the center of rotation of the polar vortex moved near the northern tip of Greenland.
The tight polar vortex with a cold upper atmosphere (recall as the surface warms the upper atmosphere cools) has created a large Arctic ozone hole, mentioned over a decade ago as an Arctic tipping point. With more air exchange from low to high latitudes, the Arctic sea ice peaked early (Mar 2) and has since been rapidly declining.
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Shackleton the Explorer Goes Nuts in Quarantine // Mar 28, 2020
In these dire times of coronavirus exponential growth and ongoing abrupt climate change, I hope that you are all coping as well as possible. Clearly, Shackleton the Explorer is letting off steam, and is wondering why his human family rarely leaves the house these days.
Me, I have been able to exercise so much lately that I am in the best shape I have been in for decades; for example I biked 25 kilometres (over 14 miles) and walked 10 kilometres (over 6 miles) today, and have lowered my resting heart rate from about 52 to 47 over the last month. I am also boosting my immune system with copious vegetables and vitamins and other stuff. Take care, and enjoy “Shacks” antics. Please share some of your own personal coping stories and inspiration in the comments section:)!!
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It was a very early maximum for Arctic sea ice this year. Around March 2nd…. https://t.co/pq4FVyd6Rn
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Trump's response to #COVID19 is already the greatest failure of leadership in American history, and he's only getting warmed up. https://t.co/5UBXsS8vU5
The huge decline in road traffic, air travel and other business activities across Europe during the coronavirus pandemic has led to sharp reductions in pollution over several major cities, new images published by the European Space Agency show https://t.co/nJcrRPbJ82pic.twitter.com/IeBhOnBY12
Another must-read piece by @JeffGoodell of @RollingStone, "Zero Hour: There’s No Stopping Climate Change, But How Bad It Gets Is Still Up To Us: It is more important than ever that we eliminate fossil fuels and reduce suffering in a warming world" https://t.co/iAbHadSAKQ
Want to see the true potential impact of ignoring social distancing? Through a partnership with @xmodesocial, we analyzed secondary locations of anonymized mobile devices that were active at a single Ft. Lauderdale beach during spring break. This is where they went across the US: pic.twitter.com/3A3ePn9Vin
Magnitude of Global Dimming from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 1 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020
Global Dimming from industrial and transportation aerosols is likely between 0.25C and 1.1C with a best estimate of 0.5C. As global industry/transportation shutters due to our coronavirus actions, the sky clears due to reduced pollution, unmasking global dimming.
My educated best guess on the size of the direct effect warming pulse is 0.25C globally if half of industry shuts down, realized as a 0.5C warning over land and 0.125C warming over the oceans. Maybe double these numbers with indirect effects from cloud changes. Also, daily temperature range will increase, specifically due to shutdown of the airline industry.
Amount of Global Dimming Expected from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 2 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020
Continues where last video, left off.
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Warming we can expect from Global Dimming reduction due to Coronavirus Industrial Shutdowns: 3 of 3 // Mar 22, 2020
Continues where second video, left off. Video three of three.
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A simple expression of why physical distancing is crucial & urgent & will help you & your loved ones & the loved ones of your loved ones, etc – AND lift the load on our medical pros. Share, repost, republish; it's creative commons. 🙏 @SiouxsieW & @XTOTLhttps://t.co/cfXuXp8fy2pic.twitter.com/Aw2PPTowSH
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why the most extensive travel restrictions in human history haven’t been enough to stop the coronavirus outbreak https://t.co/7wGK5vx0tY
A simple expression of why physical distancing is crucial & urgent & will help you & your loved ones & the loved ones of your loved ones, etc – AND lift the load on our medical pros. Share, repost, republish; it's creative commons. 🙏 @SiouxsieW & @XTOTLhttps://t.co/cfXuXp8fy2pic.twitter.com/Aw2PPTowSH
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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We analyzed the movements of hundreds of millions of people to show why the most extensive travel restrictions in human history haven’t been enough to stop the coronavirus outbreak https://t.co/7wGK5vx0tY
Modelling the Coming Coronavirus Tsunami: Imperial College Paper // Mar 18, 2020
This new paper from Imperial College models the expected number of cases of coronavirus and the total number of deaths that we would expect in both the UK (Great Britain) and in the USA.
The modelling starts with a worst case scenario of no interventions, and projects total deaths of 510,000 in the UK (peaking early June) and 2.2 million in the USA (peaking late June) with a caveat: these are direct deaths, not accounting for spillover effects to other critical care patients without the virus).
It then models the effects of so-called Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to shift the curve to a later date, and lower the peak. These include shutting schools and universities, social distancing, self-isolation, quarantines, to shutting cities and countries.
Ref: ‘Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand‘. 16 March 2020, Link to 20 page article, here. here.
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Will the Coronavirus Pandemic Weaken in the Northern Hemisphere as we move into Summer? // Mar 17, 2020
I discuss a new scientific paper that examines the present coronavirus spread and shows correlations of the hardest hit regions to temperature and humidity changes with latitude. This is only one paper, but it seems to indicate that the hardest hit regions are within an average temperature band from 5C to 11C, with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and absolute humidity (4-7 g/cm3). If this is confirmed in subsequent scientific studies then it could indicate that Covid-19 is a seasonal respiratory virus. Promising (since it would slow down in summer); but too early to tell for sure at the moment.
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History of Pandemics; Will Covid-19 Slow Down in Summer? // Mar 17, 2020
Throughout human history, as we spread across the world we have had infectious diseases as a constant companion. Outbreaks continue to happen, even more frequently in our modern era.
First, I discuss a timeline over the last 2000 years and chat about some of histories most deadly pandemics, including the biggies such as Black Death (Bubonic Plague); with 200 million dead (30-50% of Europe); smallpox killing 90% of Native Americans, and the Spanish flu.
Next I discuss what we know about seasonal cycles of many infectious diseases, and then some recent papers considering whether Covid-19 may be seasonal, perhaps weakening as we head to Northern Hemisphere summer.
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Temperature anomalies we’re off the chart for Dec-Jan-Feb 2030. Look at these numbers, with 1951-1980 baseline. Add 0.3C to convert to 1880-1910 baseline, add another 0.3C to convert to 1750 baseline. That’s 1.78C warmer than 1970. #ClimateEmergency#ClimateChangepic.twitter.com/XffumLkkQi
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 1 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020
On March 10th a vitally important article was published online by Tomas Pueyo, and I chat about it in this video and my next two. Even if you do not understand it all, or my chat about it, please forward it to your politicians, community leaders and business leaders.
It can save a large number of lives, but action needs to be taken immediately. I can not stress this enough. The most important concept discussed is determining the true number of cases from the diagnosed number of cases, and the vital importance of social isolation in your community.
Ref: ‘Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now‘, by Tomas Pueyo. Link to excellent article, at Medium.com, Mar 10, 2020.
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 2 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020
Continues, first video above.
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Coronavirus: Why YOU Must ACT NOW: Part 3 of 3 // Mar 12, 2020
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Maybe we should all start wearing soap-on-a-rope around our necks?
This is huge: Ohio Health Dept. Director Amy Acton is saying that evidence of community spread indicates that 1% of Ohioans are currently carrying coronavirus. That's *117,000* people.
Wow — dean of University of Washington medical school is asking qualified graduate students to pause their research and instead help run COVID-19 lab tests.
Chat on Hard-Hitting New Report: “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change”: 1 of 2 // Mar 7, 2020
A new report called “A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change” came out last month, produced by a National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change, within The Center for Climate and Security.
I discuss the key points for each of the two warming scenarios:
in the near term with 1-2 C of warming, and
in the medium-long term with 2-4+ C of warming. Impact threats to society are already very high, and soon to be catastrophic, according to this hard-hitting report.
Ref: ‘A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE HOW LIKELY WARMING SCENARIOS INDICATE A CATASTROPHIC SECURITY FUTURE‘: click here, to download full 86 page file, or read only format off of web, here. From February 2020.
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A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change; also Coronavirus Growth Rates: Part 2 of 2 // Mar 7, 2020
I continue my chat on the dire report: A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change. I then discuss how China went from 278 cases of COVID-19 to 80,000 cases in 45 days.
If USA growth rates are similar, 401 cases today would grow to about 80,000 cases by April 21st. Growth rates in different countries can be similarly estimated, allowing you to project and prepare for what will likely happen; much variation between different countries depends on resources and actions. Some epidemiologists think 20-60% of the global population will be infected.
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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Striking satellite images… Airborne Nitrogen Dioxide Plummets Over China https://t.co/jnjfH7MQ5v
Coronavirus Effect on Global Warming and Global Warming Impact on Pandemic Risks: Part 1 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020
The Coronavirus has shuttered about 25% of Chinese industrial production for weeks on end. Since Chinese production and industrial activist accounts for about 1/4 of global production, 1/4 x 1/4 = 1/16 or about 6% of global production has been halted. Thus, my back of the envelope best guess has global CO2 emissions down about 6%, and globally produced aerosols down about 6% as well.
Since global dimming from aerosols is thought to be between 0.25 to 1.1 C, if we take the 1 C number as an upper limit, then the Coronavirus has resulted in global warming of about 0.06 C; with regional warming over China of about 0.25 C.
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Coronavirus and Climate Change: Intimate Connections: Part 2 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020
It is well known that as our planet rapidly warms, there are more disease vectors that affect human health. Diseases such as Zika Virus, West Nile Disease, Ebola, Malaria, etc. propagate faster and more severely in warmer regions.
Looking at history, when Europeans went to warmer lands of long established civilizations (Incas, Aztecs, and Mayans) it was their diseases that wiped out these Indigenous populations. Immune systems of higher latitude nations (Europeans) were stronger than those of people in lower latitude regions, the latter had no immunity to diseases the invaders inadvertently brought in.
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Habitat Stress Forcing Poleward Animal Migration Increases Risk of New Virus Generation: Part 3 of 3 // Feb 28, 2020
It is thought that the coronavirus originated in Wuhan’s wild animal market, perhaps moving first from bats to a small mammal and then to humans. We know that as the globe rapidly warms, many animal species are forced to migrate towards the poles in search of more optimal habitats as their existing regions become too warm and dry to continue to sustain them.
This migration causes these animals to interact more with other species, and become more stressed, weakening their immune systems and increasing the probability of them becoming virus carriers and propagators.
Skating with the Wolves (and Ranting about Climate Coronavirus Connections) // Mar 1, 2020
Nothing beats an early morning vigorous skate through the Quebec snow covered forests with the wolves. The ice was perfectly flat and nearly pristine along this 3 km loop in the woods at Lac-des-Loups, and the path was almost deserted. Essentially, this was the perfect place for me to film a rant video while skating, to summarize some of the key connections between abrupt climate system change and the Coronavirus, and vice-versa.
It is very clear to me that climate change increases the risk of viral and bacterial disease outbreaks around the planet, and when these outbreaks are large enough to become global pandemics they significantly affect climate. If you like my videos, please donate at http://paulbeckwith.net and Thanks for Watching!!
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Skating Seven Miles Through the Beautiful Winter Forest in Lac-des-Loups (Lake of Wolves) Quebec!) // Mar 1, 2020
Last video focused on the connections between abrupt climate system change and the connections to the coronavirus. Some people rightly complained that as I skated in a beautiful forest landscape in Quebec they just saw my face and not enough of the scenery; this video is for those people.
Here I focus on the skating path and the wonderful snow laden trees bordering the path as I navigate through the forest. As I post this video, I am resting from my hour long skate covering over 7 miles (12 km), which is 4 complete loops) through the forest , according to my Garmin Fenix watch, which tells me everything about my body; in fact more than anybody would ever want to know!!
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Not only did @realDonaldTrump inherit a growing economy’; he also inherited a fully staffed and competent pandemic response team…
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For the first time in recorded history, there will be no measurable rainfall in San Francisco in the month of February.
Coronavirus is primarily spread from respiratory droplets to the nose and mouth, not through contact with contaminated objects. Thus, your incessant promotion of hand-washing is unscientific and leads people to a false sense of security. https://t.co/v7QcM1Vgxl
Clearly, the money and power in society is pushing us at ever faster rates towards a barren Earth…
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Forward J.P.Morgan’s report: “Risky business: The Climate and the Macroeconomy” to Climate Deniers // Feb 24, 2020
I continue to chat about the J.P.Morgan Special Report, referenced above.
It is one thing for a tree-hugger or climate scientist to talk about our impending climate catastrophe, but another thing entirely for the largest investment bank funding fossil fuels to report using these dire terms.
Thus, I highly recommend you forward this video and link to politicians and your climate denier friends.
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I think the bottom line on @Chase's climate announcements today is: a couple of decades late, and about $196 billion dollars short.https://t.co/bYwZQdYiSA
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'Buying an old and leaky pipeline in order to take over a private sector project that had hit the rocks was hardly smart. But overpaying for it to the extent that the Liberals did was an act of political desperation,' writes @ElizabethMayhttps://t.co/GlOSpaJyGn
Moderators: What's your favorite quote that represents you? Bernie: We are in a planetary emergency and only a radical, sustained, transformative overhaul of every aspect of society will bring about a florishing era on the only place in the known universe that harbors life
West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt Expected to Greatly Accelerate as Southern Ocean Warms: Part 1 of 3 // Feb 19, 2020
An island off the northernmost tip of Antarctica reached a record breaking temperature of 20.75 C (69.35 F) for the first time, after setting a record the previous week of 18.3 C (65 F), besting the previous record of 17.5 C (63.5 F) in March 2015.
How Southern Ocean Warming Drives Substantial Ice Mass Loss from Antarctica; Part 2 of 3 // Feb 20, 2020
I continue to discuss a new paper that examines:
how southern ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica early in the last interglacial period (129 to 116 thousand years ago),
and the implications of this today.
Back then, with warmer polar temperatures, global mean sea level was +6 to 9 m (roughly 20 to 30 feet) higher than today. With Greenland ice sheet melt contributing about 2 m, and ocean thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers contributing about 1 m; that means Antarctica would have contributed between 3 to 6 m, mostly from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS).
How close are Southern Ocean Temperatures to a West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Point? Part 3 of 3 // Feb 20, 2020
I continue chatting on the new paper examining how southern ocean warming drove substantial ice mass loss from Antarctica early in the last interglacial period (129 to 116 thousand years ago), and the implications for us today of accelerated melt and sea level rise.
According to the paper, an early last-interglacial warning of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) of 1.6 C relative to present day occurred; meanwhile SST temperatures bracketing coastlines of the most vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) increased as much as 1 C between 1981 and 2010. Not good; we may be very close to a tipping point.
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Here's a great, very human and inspiring video from scientist @PaulHBeckwith.
'I don't have a lot of hope, but things aren't hopeless either…You have compassion for people and you try to make a difference' https://t.co/DJLr43JIUC
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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The greatest "Arctic Amplification" is found in the boreal fall. As sea ice begins refreezing, heat is released back into the overlying atmosphere. This energy transfer has been enhanced by the recent reductions in sea ice cover. Data using @BerkeleyEarth from 1900 to 2019. pic.twitter.com/vZk6a1pWRy
here's the best response to Jeff Bezos' new Earth Fund. @AMZNforClimate is one of the truly effective groups of workers on the planet–pay attention to them! https://t.co/0pDNw7QFos
If this study is confirmed by many others, then between 1955 and 2005 about half of the surface warming in the Arctic, and about half of the Arctic sea-ice extent loss was actually due to the GHG (Green House Gases) effect from ODS (Ozone Depleting Substances), and not due to ozone changes.
After stabilizing for many years after the 1987 Montreal Protocol, the ODS CFC-11 (trichlorofluoromethane has been rising since 2013 or so from illicit production in China, according a separate paper. Our societies cannot afford to let these trace, long lived, huge GWP (Global Warming Potential) gases to rise in concentration in our atmosphere.
That’s eight new videos, so that your job to take in a markedly wide view on weather and climate, is THAT much easier. Donations to Paul, were and are, continue to be appreciated. PayPal account is not required, just normal credit card.
'Ignored and trivialized': Experts warned Australian government before catastrophic blazes
Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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An older couple started talking to me in the park. They asked me where I went to school and what I did.
Want to be shouted at for 20 minutes? Tell them you studied weather and climate at Harvard and work at The Washington Post.
Jet Stream Shift 17 degrees Southward to Greenland
Summary
Well known and respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos of sometimes daunting subjects, especially in climate system science, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences at YouTube.
Frequently called upon for commentary by fellow educators, activists, and public. Physicist, Engineer, and part-time professor at the University of Ottawa. His primary interest is joining-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change to determine where we are heading, and how fast, and what it all means for us and our amazing planet.
Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist 