The Science of Today’s Superstorms: 1 of 3

The Science of Today’s Superstorms: 1 of 3 // Sep 14, 2018

The West is focused on the massive deluge from Hurricane Florence drowning North Carolina, with big threats to people living amongst the stinky pig manure pools, coal ash piles left over from power plants, and toxic Superfund sites (witches brews of carcinogens).

Meanwhile, a much larger (double size of Florence) more intense (Category 5) hydraulic buzz-saw of a hurricane just razed the top of the Philippines and entered the very hot waters of the South China Sea heading directly for over 120 million people living near the Pearl River Delta in China.

Just another day on Earth with an effed-up climate.
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Abrupt Climate Change Consequences Are Here Today: Superstorms: 2 of 3 // Sep 15, 2018

Science of Superstorms:

  • Sea-surface Temperatures over 26.5 C.
  • Warm water to Depth.
  • Not much wind shear.
  • More water vapour in atmosphere to turbocharge storms.
  • Wavy jet stream ridges constrain direction of storms.
  • Lack of steering winds allow storm to be almost stationary allowing deluges and 5 feet of rain in places.
  • Water on land surface fuels hurricane (brown ocean effect), so it takes a long time over land to lose strength.

All this and more is discussed.
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As mentioned near the start of the video, David Korn Special Projects has been helping me here from day one and before.  He explains that while money matters, it is ‘like’ thirteenth in his top ten of hierarchy of values.  He seeks to help those who truly want to be able to be helped.  Structure projects, messages, not just mechanically, but strategically.  With both a heavy project management, financial management and sales, and a design background alike, he is a wide angle lens for business, efforts, and initiatives, and personal and professional effectiveness.  He is best used where many factors come into play.  For the fast take on him, suggest the 27:50 mark in this podcast. Segment–about eight minutes long for those short on time.
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Our Near-Term Future: What Current Arctic Sea-Ice Melt and Export Patterns Tell Us

Patterns of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss: Melt versus Export // Sep 6, 2018

Following up on my previous video, posted September 5th 2018 as Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis, the summer melting characteristics for Arctic Sea-Ice are definitely changing.

 

Melt occurs on:

  • 1) the top of the ice (air temperature above freezing, melt ponds, water within/between ice crystals, and ash/dirt in ice lower albedo),
  • 2) the edge of the ice (wave action fracturing, water mixing, turbulence),
  • 3) the bottom of the ice (water above freezing, fresh water lens, warmer salty water below).

Also, ice is exported out:

  • a) the Fram Strait (less now as ice retreats),
  • b) to the Atlantic north of Svalbard,
  • c) out the Nares Strait (more now) and
  • d) out the Canadian Archipelago channels (more now; no ridged ice left to block it).

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Further Dynamics of Arctic Sea Ice Loss // Sep 7, 2018

Following up on my previous 2 videos, the mechanisms for ice loss (surface melt, edge melt, bottom melt, export out Fram Strait, Nares Strait, Canadian Archipelago) are in flux.Understanding the dynamics of the melt is necessary to get a better educated guess on when the first total ice loss (blue ocean event) will occur, how long it will last, and how it will precondition the Arctic Ocean for subsequent years.

I make use of Zack Labe’s excellent Arctic Sea Ice graphics to explain to you many of the dynamics of Arctic Sea ice Loss.
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Arctic Sea-Ice Loss as a Pivot Point for Humanity // Sep 8, 2018

Fourth video of a series of four on the changing dynamics of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss (melt versus export) as we tease out clues as to when the first blue-ocean event will occur. Also:

  • what will happen after the first blue-ocean event, both in the Arctic and elsewhere?

How will things proceed in subsequent years, and what impacts will humanity have to face?

Link to Arctic Sea Ice Graphs, here.

‘Great map.  Link to very bottom’ shown here.
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https://twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1038511954250395651
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Everything you wanted to know about Arctic Sea-Ice Loss is in my 4 video series; all on YouTube.

My next few videos to be filmed will describe exactly what I expect to happen next.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

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Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis // Sep 5, 2018

It appears that Arctic Sea-Ice will hang on for another year, as the melt season draws to a close for 2018. No blue-ocean event this year. However, the nature of the melt is definitely changing, and we can discern patterns in the melt from year to year.

 

For example, at minimum-sea ice extent in Sept., 2014 there was still relatively thick ice (multi-year, and/or ridged ice) north of the Canadian Archipelago, but it pretty much vanished by the subsequent melt season. All that’s been left in September’s since then is ice less than a meter thick, apart from some 2 meter ice hanging on near the archipelago islands. What’s next? When? Why?

Stay tuned for 3 more ice videos.
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Very substantial interview with Jennifer Hynes and Mike Ferrigan, on Extinction-Radio-Ep 91-Sept-04-2018.  Starts around 5:52 mark and continues to past 1:26 or ninety minutes+.

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Quality of Life drops as Climate Change hits Home

Quality of Life drops as Climate Change hits Home // Aug 29, 2018

Where I live, it has been too hot and too humid this summer. Quality of life has degraded. Ongoing climate system change is hitting my home, and is likely in-your-face as well this year; please comment on your own situation.

I chat about heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and monsoonal like torrential rains that are worsening as Arctic sea-ice degrades. What about human responses. Scientists are very worried but lack power. Politics is divisive.

As climate change causes more and more migration, governments become more and more populist and nationalistic and also deny climate change. What can we do??
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Earth Climate System: Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse

Earth Climate System: Terrible Trajectories to Hothouse // Aug 11, 2018

Ten years ago Timothy Lenton (b. 1973) spearheaded a scientific paper examining expert assessments on the types and likelihoods of Tipping Elements in the Climate System. A number of top European climate scientists published an update a few days ago, to get a handle on the risk of cascading climate feedbacks propelling the Earth into a hothouse state.

They suggest that we are on that path now, and have a decade or two to avoid the worst. I fear that we have already gone over that cliff, and I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.
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Ref 1:  ‘Climate change: ‘Hothouse Earth‘ risks even if CO2 emissions slashed, By Matt McGrath — Environment correspondent, 6 August 2018

Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.  Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this “irreversible pathway”.  

‘Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.  An international team of climate researchers, writing in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, says the warming expected in the next few decades could turn some of the Earth’s natural forces – that currently protect us – into our enemies‘.

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Ref 2. ‘Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene‘.  Will Steffen, Johan Rockström, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber.
PNAS August 9, 2018. 201810141; published ahead of print August 6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

Abstract:
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be.

‘If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values‘.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

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Regions Will Be Uninhabitable, From Unrelenting Heat & Humidity. Primer on Wet Bulb Temp

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Human Body Limit to Heat Stress from Abrupt Climate Change // Aug 3, 2018

The average persons core body temperature is 98.6 F (37 C). Human skin is a few degrees colder, being about 35 C (95 F).  Heat travels from hot regions to cold regions, according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

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Thus when the wet-bulb temperature, which is the temperature at 100% humidity, reaches 35 C (95 C) the human body can no longer shed heat (sweat no longer evaporates), thus core body temperature rises, and the healthiest person, (editor:  ‘even’) sitting in the shade, dies in about 6 hours.

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The rest of us (young, old, medicated, out-of shape, obese, etc…) are SOL at even lower wet-bulb temperatures.  Adaptation would require living inside with AC, living in caves, or wearing cooled suits; who wants to do that??
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Uninhabitable Regions with Extreme Heat and Humidity // Aug 2, 2018

At 35 degrees Celsius (95 F) and 100% humidity (at 100% humidity this temperature is called the wet-bulb temperature) the human body is unable to cool itself by sweating, since the sweat will not evaporate from the skin. As a result, the body core temperature rises, heat exhaustion and then heatstroke sets in.

A physically healthy person sitting in the shade, in a well ventilated area, is dead in 6 hours. Higher temperatures, and correspondingly lower humidity do the same thing. The very young, old, people on medication, etc. succumb to less extreme temperatures and humidity.

This video expands upon my last video, which explains how many regions around the planet are reaching these uninhabitable conditions.
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Kevin Hester and Paul Beckwith on the Gary Null Show // Fri 03 Aug 2018, NZ

Thank you to Gary Null and Kevin Hester.

Thanks also to super blogger, Robin Westenra for sharing this at See More Rocks blog: ‘Paul Beckwith, Gary Null and Kevin Hester analyse the rapidly unfolding Climate Catastrophe‘.
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Unrelenting Heat, Humidity Will Soon Make Regions UNINHABITABLE // Aug 1, 2018

How hot can it actually get?  What is in store for us?  When you combine the heat domes sitting over many countries with high humidity, many areas around the planet will soon reach the deadly 35 C (95 F) 100% humidity (wet bulb temperature) or equivalent situation whereby a perfectly healthy person outside, in a well ventilated area, in the shade will die from the heat in 6 hours.

Most people, like the very young, the elderly, and the rest of us won’t last anywhere as long, at even lower temperatures.  I discuss the latest peer-reviewed science on how parts of high-risk regions in the North China Plains, Middle East, and South Asia will soon be rendered uninhabitable by combined heat and humidity.
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Antarctica Under Abrupt Climate Change // Jul 28, 2018

The majority of land masses are in the northern hemisphere, along with the majority of human populations. However, we can never forget the Southern Hemisphere, and the enormous mass of ice that sits on Antarctica.

With Arctic Temperature Amplification, mostly from an increase in absorbed sunlight due to darkening from snow and ice decline, more heat travels from the equator to the Southern Hemisphere, with important consequences to air and water circulation around Antarctica.

It is vital to understand how an Arctic Blue Ocean situation will impact glacier mass in Antarctica, and thus sea-level rise Extreme weather events around the entire globe are notching up in frequency, severity, and duration, as well as changing location, and many people are surprised that this is also happening in the Southern Hemisphere.
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Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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Arctic Blue Ocean Event Consequences: Air and Ocean Circulation Changes

 

Arctic Blue Ocean Event Consequences: Air and Ocean Circulation Changes //  Jul 28, 2018

It is becoming common knowledge that we are rapidly heading to complete loss of Arctic sea-ice.  Without a course reversal, one eventually gets where one is headed.  What will the consequences be, to the Arctic and to the rest of the planet?

Using my three cats as willing(?) helpers, I attempt to explain how the Beaufort Gyre and TransArctic Drift will reverse, monsoonal torrential rains will attack permafrost on land along Arctic coastlines, with severe increases in methane and carbon dioxide releases from this big thaw.

Our world will rapidly change for the worse as Arctic feedbacks accelerate and the jet streams stall out. We will have to relearn how to grow food in new ways and regions as existing farmland becomes subject to droughts and/or switches to torrential rains. Buckle your seatbelts.
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Monsoonal Patterns Start Dominating Jet Stream Circulation // Jul 28, 2018

Abrupt climate change is hitting humanity over the head with a big mallet this summer. The root cause is Arctic warming at much faster rates than equatorial warming, and the result is a mangled jet stream.

With a slower, wavy, fractured jet stream losing its domination of weather patterns, topography like elevation changes and land/water borders are taking over, making our global weather patterns more monsoonal-like, even in the Arctic as I describe in detail in previous videos.

Human health, vegetation, including crops, and everything else is severely being degraded by rapid climate change, necessitating declaration of a global climate emergency with a proportionate, global response, as if our survival depends on it. Because it does.
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Incessant Body Blows to Humanity From Abrupt Climate Change

Incessant Body Blows to Humanity From Abrupt Climate Change // Published on Jul 24, 2018

If you think that this years heatwaves are brutal, be thankful that we are not in an El Niño, which would have added even more heat to our atmosphere, thanks to energy release from the oceans.

Building on my previous two videos, I show you we have lost all Arctic Sea Ice thicker than 2 meters, and what’s left is being churned upped by a strong cyclone, and undergoing rapid melt, with almost 2 months left to go in the melt season. I clearly show what a “monsoon” is; India’s is the best example but it appears that this phenomena giving torrential rains is making an appearance in the Arctic.

     

These are quite nice accolades and compliments.

 

Ditto!
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Global Heatwaves to Arctic Monsoons: Climate Mayhem

Arctic Monsoons: A New Climate Nightmare // Published on Jul 23, 2018

Please help me wake up mainstream media.  We have a climate EMERGENCY on our hands. Extensive, long duration heat waves, caused by a stuck jet-stream are roasting people in heatwaves around the globe.

People living in the far north, in countries extending up north of the Arctic Circle are enduring unprecedented heat, wildfires, drought, and torrential rains and of course have no air conditioning; why would they.

With the land super-hot for days on end, convective lifting (hot air rises) lowers air pressure at the surface, drawing in moisture filled ocean air, leading to buildup of Arctic Monsoons, yet another “unexpected” surprise.

The big heatwave: from Algeria to the Arctic. But what’s the cause? Guardian, Sunday 22 July, 2018 by Robin McKie.
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Global Heatwaves to Arctic Monsoons: Climate Mayhem // Published on Jul 23, 2018

“I can’t hold it! She’s breaking up, she’s breaking up —” I’m not talking about Steve Austin, astronaut: a man barely alive (Six Million Dollar Man), but about Earth’s climate.

 

Arctic Sea-Ice is dying, with maximum thickness – 2 meters. Stuck jet-stream ridges with massive long-lived heat domes are cooking people, ecosystems, and crops, and creating unprecedented wildfires north of the Arctic Circle, with ash darkening ice and snow causing further rises in Arctic temperatures.

Arctic monsoons (my term) with torrential rains are becoming a new phenomena.

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