Our Near-Term Future: What Current Arctic Sea-Ice Melt and Export Patterns Tell Us

Patterns of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss: Melt versus Export // Sep 6, 2018

Following up on my previous video, posted September 5th 2018 as Arctic Sea Ice Melt Patterns and Analysis, the summer melting characteristics for Arctic Sea-Ice are definitely changing.


Melt occurs on:

  • 1) the top of the ice (air temperature above freezing, melt ponds, water within/between ice crystals, and ash/dirt in ice lower albedo),
  • 2) the edge of the ice (wave action fracturing, water mixing, turbulence),
  • 3) the bottom of the ice (water above freezing, fresh water lens, warmer salty water below).

Also, ice is exported out:

  • a) the Fram Strait (less now as ice retreats),
  • b) to the Atlantic north of Svalbard,
  • c) out the Nares Strait (more now) and
  • d) out the Canadian Archipelago channels (more now; no ridged ice left to block it).


Further Dynamics of Arctic Sea Ice Loss // Sep 7, 2018

Following up on my previous 2 videos, the mechanisms for ice loss (surface melt, edge melt, bottom melt, export out Fram Strait, Nares Strait, Canadian Archipelago) are in flux.Understanding the dynamics of the melt is necessary to get a better educated guess on when the first total ice loss (blue ocean event) will occur, how long it will last, and how it will precondition the Arctic Ocean for subsequent years.

I make use of Zack Labe’s excellent Arctic Sea Ice graphics to explain to you many of the dynamics of Arctic Sea ice Loss.

Arctic Sea-Ice Loss as a Pivot Point for Humanity // Sep 8, 2018

Fourth video of a series of four on the changing dynamics of Arctic Sea-Ice Loss (melt versus export) as we tease out clues as to when the first blue-ocean event will occur. Also:

  • what will happen after the first blue-ocean event, both in the Arctic and elsewhere?

How will things proceed in subsequent years, and what impacts will humanity have to face?

Link to Arctic Sea Ice Graphs, here.

‘Great map.  Link to very bottom’ shown here.
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Everything you wanted to know about Arctic Sea-Ice Loss is in my 4 video series; all on YouTube.

My next few videos to be filmed will describe exactly what I expect to happen next.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

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About paulbeckwith

Well known climate science educator; Part-time Geography professor (climatology, oceanography, environmental issues), University of Ottawa. Physicist. Engineer. Master's Degree in Science in Laser Optics, Bachelors of Engineering, in Engineering Physics. Won Association of Professional Engineers of Ontario gold medal. Also interested in investment and start-ups in climate solutions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Avid chess player, and likes restoring old homes. Married with children.
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