Abrupt Air Circulation Changes: Equatorial Atmospheric Super-Rotation; AGU Science Conference

Posted on December 4, 2017 by paulbeckwith

Climate Risks from Equatorial Atmospheric Super-Rotation // Published on Dec 4, 2017

If we continue on the current path of high greenhouse gas emissions, we risk triggering an abrupt change in our atmospheric circulation.

    

As the band around the equator warms, intense convection adds energy to the winds aloft, which can speed up and become faster than the Earth’s rotation. This super-rotation state can confine water vapour within this band, thus reducing cloud cover at higher latitudes and causing a DOUBLING of climate sensitivity.
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On Sunday December 3rd I had an interview with CTV television at 4:20 pm EST on this years brutal hurricane season. I emphasized the root cause being disruption of climate causing very hot ocean water and wavy/stalled jet streams. Climate disruption is primarily from the greatly warming Arctic due to human emissions and feedback effects.

‘This year’s deadly Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Thursday. According to Accuweather, 2017 ranks among the 7 most intense seasons ever recorded. We saw 17 storms including Maria, Harvey, Irma and Ophelia rip through the Caribbean and North America’s east coast causing flooding and mass devastation. For more on this we’re joined by Paul Beckwith, climate system scientist at Ottawa University’.

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My live interview with the Environmental Coffee House with Sandy Schoelles from Thursday November 30th (Editor:  REALLY great intro by Sandy Schoelles.  And even the best have ranges from highly lucid to lucid to average, depending on the day.  Paul is super lucid here):

‘ECH welcomes back Paul Beckwith, Abrupt Climate Educator.  Paul has a popular website, You Tube and FB page where you can follow him and see his informative videos . Tonight we discussed climate change and what to do about it, exploring many topics of interest‘.

For reference, Earth Null School here.
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I will be attending the AGU (American Geophysical Union) science conference in New Orleans. The conference runs from Dec. 11th through 15th. Each day I will upload at least two videos to my YouTube channel on what I deem are the most significant climate change science presented that day. I am paying out of pocket for this conference, so please consider a donation on my PayPal to help offset my costs. You won’t be disappointed!!!  (Editor, does not require account).
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I wish to sincerely thank everybody who has supported my work with donations, or by just watching and sharing my climate change videos and blogs to get the word out to the public on how serious abrupt climate change is.  I cannot thank you enough. Recently, I emailed all my supporters to thank them and gather their suggestions on content that you wish to see in upcoming videos.  I am committed to getting the word out, with ever increasing viewership, so please share, email, blog, post, like our future depended on it. Because it does!
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Earth Tipping Elements: New Kid on the Block

Posted on November 28, 2017 by paulbeckwith

Earth Tipping Elements: New Kid on the Block // Published on Nov 27, 2017

An amazing thing about the recently release US Climate Report (more discussion, last post) is the open acknowledgement in Chapter 15 that huge risks exist for our Earth systems to tip into new states. Not mentioned is that these states will severely stress civilization and life on our planet.

In addition to the “usual suspects” for tipping: Arctic, rainforests, etc. there is a new kid on the block; namely Equatorial Atmospheric Super-rotation, which would completely rewire our global atmospheric circulation.
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No New Normal as Climate Mayhem Spikes Up //Published on Nov 25, 2017

There is no such thing as a “new normal” in climate. You ain’t seen nothing yet.
Our Earth System is highly nonlinear, with multiple accelerating feedbacks taking us closer to crossing irreversible tipping points that will completely change the dynamics of atmospheric and ocean circulation, the cryosphere and our biosphere.  Essentially changing everything on our planet.


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Climate Tipping Points from Cascading Feedbacks, Voices of Dissent Interview, Extinction Radio

Posted on November 23, 2017 by paulbeckwith

Climate Tipping Points from Cascading Feedbacks // Published on Nov 23, 2017

From my chair, it looks like we can kiss our stable nurturing climate goodby.

Humans have poked and prodded and perturbed our Earth systems to the breaking point, and these systems are now breaking.  Business as usual guarantees an unstable climate and gut-wrenching consequences for all life on this planet.

Source of feature image, Tipping Elements – the Achilles Heels of the Earth System, from The Potsdam Institute, For Climate Impact Research:

‘Tipping elements are components of the Earth system of supra-regional scale which – in terms of background climate – are characterized by a threshold behavior. Once operating near a threshold, these components can be tipped into a qualitatively different state by small external perturbations.

‘Comparing with the human body, tipping elements could be described as organs which drastically alter or stop their usual function if certain requirements, such as the administration of oxygen, are not given in a sufficient manner‘.

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And for reference, ‘Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements‘.  Key findings:  ‘The physical and socioeconomic impacts of compound extreme events (such as simultaneous heat and drought, wildfires associated with hot and dry conditions, or flooding associated with high precipitation on top of snow or waterlogged ground) can be greater than the sum of the parts (very high confidence). Few analyses consider the spatial or temporal correlation between extreme events‘.
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Paul is feature by Dougie Hanson, The Abolitionist, on the Voices of Dissent.org AM radio show.

Voices of Dissent Interview, from Nov 18,2017.  Link is to audio file, first of two hour long segments.  For those so inclined, link to second hour, continues here.  Episode proper after several minute introduction, gets going around 8 minute mark, then leads with contextual information with Amy Goodman of Democracy Now, then gets into specifics at 13:00 mark.  Paul’s segment starts around 42:00 mark to the end of ‘Hour One’–about 20 minutes long.
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Extinction Radio Episode 80, 22nd October 2017, ‘Mike Sliwa, Derrick Jensen, Paul Beckwith, Vanessa Blackeslee and Hambone Littletail‘.  Paul’s hour plug long segment segment starts at:  1:07:17- 2:10:30, In Conversation – Paul Beckwith and Mike Ferrigan.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

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Cascading Climate Consequences: US Report

Posted on November 17, 2017 by paulbeckwith

This video continues from where last week’s post, Highs and Lows of US Climate Science Report, left off.

Cascading Climate Consequences: US Report // Published on Nov 17, 2017

I chat about startling facts/observations from the recent US Climate Report.

My view is that climate changes are much worse than presented in this report.

Soil moisture is dropping across all seasons; as is mountain range snow pack feeding rivers; number of large fires is rising. Tropical cyclones are moving northward; Cat. 4-5 are more frequent. Tornado outbreaks (-30 per day) are rising, atmospheric rivers are stronger, frost free/agricultural growing days are rising.


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FYI, if perchance you missed Guy, Paul, and Martin in our recent discussion, you can access the post here.


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

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A Conversation with Guy, Paul Beckwith, and Martin Halliwell

Posted on November 15, 2017 by paulbeckwith

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A Conversation with Guy, Paul Beckwith, and Martin Halliwell // Published on Nov 13, 2017.

Professor Emeritus Dr. Guy McPherson and Paul met up with Martin Halliwell in Waterloo, Ontario for a friendly discussion. While Guy and Paul had previously shared some differences, they found plenty of common ground again, noted differences, and parted amicably.  It’s always nice to see people in person to chat, clear up differences, etc. after online interactions.

As film maker and producer Pauline said so well, ‘A warm welcome to Paul Beckwith. I’m very happy to announce the burying of the proverbial hatchet between he and Guy McPherson. May these two great minds continue to find common ground and common sense. Much love to you Paul. Good to see you in Toronto (sic Kitchener-Waterloo).‘

Guy’s message hardly needs an introduction from any of us. You can read more, at Nature Bat’s Last, and Pauline is available for special film projects at Wood Thrush Productions.  You can find her new wordpress effort at Pauline Schneider Media, here.

Martin is CEO of HCM (Engineering) of Ayr, Ontario and Calgary, Alberta.  He is a Professional Engineer and as well as an MBA.

He also started a non-profit charity called CANSEAT (Climate and Nature Society, Engineers and Technicians) dedicated to educating engineers and technicians on our huge climate change risks, and work towards solutions for the Earth.

Martin very generously helped to support Guy and Pauline Panagiotou Schneider for this trip, as well as helped Paul attend. This was much appreciated.

Video compliments of Nature Bats Last.  Additional information can be found at guymcpherson.com and onlyloveremains.org.

Website strategy and production, furnished continuously here and as arranged for Paul since September 2015, by David Korn, Special Projects near Seattle.  He is NOT a website designer, but rather, a professional knowledge manager and generalist with ample professional coordination, finance, strategic, sales, communication, and visual qualifications.  His wide ranging business multitool skills are also available for special remote work in business for enterprise, projects, HR needs, or events.  He can work on projects which are complex, fast, difficult, or confidential.

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Highs and Lows of US Climate Science Report

Posted on November 11, 2017 by paulbeckwith

Highs and Lows of US Climate Science Report // Published on Nov 11, 2017

In this video I chat on highlights and lowlights of the recent US Climate Science Report.

gkghkghqeikghkhhkhbkh  Recent discussion by Paul, here, “Yet Another Climate Report“, from last Saturday, November 4th.

The only way to explain Earth’s rapid temperature rise is human emissions, as anybody can see after examining solar changes, volcanic effects and natural variability (El Niño, …).

I also discuss model results from the report, and emphasize that policy makers relying on IPCC reports that are based solely on models are doomed to be vastly underestimating the speed and risks from abrupt climate change.


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Yet Another Climate Report ~Pesticides, Insects, Agriculture

Posted on November 4, 2017 by paulbeckwith

Yet Another Climate Report // Published on Nov 4, 2017

A new and extensive “Climate Science Special Report” NCA4 (National Climate Assessment 4) was released in the US; a product of multiple agencies.

I discuss the contents of this report, by examining the figures/illustrations within.

In general, the report is done fairly well, and is along the lines of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports.  However, I think that it severely underestimates the “emergency” nature and extreme urgency of our abrupt climate change situation.


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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.
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This continues Paul’s major work, recently at his post, People Manage To Kill Three-Quarters Of Flying Insects In Only 27 Years, linked here from October 24, 2017.

The Scourge of Pesticides: Part E // Published on Nov 2, 2017

Some of the hardiest, most resilient species of life on our planet are insects, having persisted for hundreds of millions of years. Not any longer. They are no match for our pesticides, that seem to be the primary reason for the loss of 76% of insect biomass (total insect mass) in a mere 27 years in a protected nature reserve in Germany.  When pesticides were first used in much lower quantities they increased crop yields, but now they decrease crop yields since they wipe out the pollinators.
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Decline of the Insects: Part D // Published on Oct 27, 2017

Many people know about the decline of bees, butterflies, and moths. Alarmingly, the decline was 76% across ALL flying insect species over 27 years in protected wildlife areas in Germany.

What caused this decline? Factors examined include changes in temperature, precipitation, frost days, herbs, grasses, trees, forests, light, water, etc.  None of these factors seemed to cause the decline, making the primary culprit farming practices (pesticides, fertilizers, tillage) outside the protected area.  I suspect abrupt climate change is involved as well.
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Industrial Agriculture Crushing Bugs: Part C // Published on Oct 26, 2017

Continuing our discussion on the collapse of the flying insect population by 76% in only 27 years, I talk about industrial agriculture that is literally sucking the life out of soils and ecosystems. A UN study concluded that based on soil degradation, we only have 60 years of crops left, while a UK study concluded only 100 harvests are left.

Clearly, agribusiness practices of monoculture, pesticides and herbicides, livestock grazing, etc. in conjunction with abrupt climate change are destroying our ecosystems. Business as usual is destroying our life support systems on the planet.

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Arctic Sea-Ice is much THINNER Than we Thought

Posted on October 28, 2017 by paulbeckwith

Arctic Sea-Ice is much THINNER Than we Thought // Published on Oct 27, 2017

The thickness, and thus volume of remaining Arctic sea-ice is much less than we think. In late winter, what we thought was 3 ft thick ice is actually only about 2.8 ft thick; 2 ft thick ice is really only about 1.5 ft thick.

      

Ice volumes are lower by 11% to 25% depending on the overall thickness patterns.  Terribly significant news, since sea-ice loss means broken persistent jet streams and many more, severe, longer duration extreme weather events.

      
For reference:

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Arctic on THIN(NER) Ice: Brainstorming // Published on Oct 27, 2017

In my previous video I explained that seasonal (first year) Arctic sea ice that we thought (last week) was about 3 feet (or 2 feet) thick is really only about 2.7 feet (or 1.5 feet) thick this week. This is huge, with enormous implications. In this video, I brainstorm on how this error affects volume, how it varies over the melt season, and how it affects ice regrowth in the fall. Bottom line: Complete loss of Arctic sea ice is even sooner than we thought.
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People Manage To Kill Three-Quarters Of Flying Insects In Only 27 Years

Posted on October 24, 2017 by paulbeckwith

People Manage To Kill Three-Quarters Of Flying Insects In Only 27 Years: Part A //
Oct 23, 2017

Humans have always excelled at killing things.  No species does it better than us. Technological advancement is fastest in development of more sophisticated and powerful weapons to kill off our enemies.

Corporate propaganda says that to have higher and higher yields of crops to feed exponential population growth we must develop more powerful pesticides to kill off more and more insects.  We’ve succeeded in killing off 76% of flying insects in only 27 years. Oops. We need insects to pollinate our crops so that we can grow food. Doh… Not so smart…
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Insectageddon: farming is more catastrophic than climate breakdown, by George Monbiot: The shocking collapse of insect populations hints at a global ecological meltdown.  Guardian link article from Friday 20 October here.

    

What the Luck?: The Surprising Role of Chance in Our Everyday Lives, by Garry Smith.  Regression to the mean, Wiki article here.  Link to Wiki article on Biomass (Ecology), here.
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It’s a Bugs Death, for Three out of Four: Part B // Oct 25, 2017

In many apocalyptic dystopian movies, we see scenes where civilization has collapsed, nobody is around, and there are cockroaches scurrying throughout derelict ruins of buildings.

Thanks to incredible scientific advances on development and deployment of super-pesticides, these movies have it all wrong. There won’t be any cockroaches, or any other bugs around. In fact we are presently killing insects so efficiently now, their absence may in fact accelerate our collapse, and we will have to rewrite these dystopian movie scripts.
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Please consider donating to support my work.  I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

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