“Climate Niche” Shifting Away From Where Most Live


Humanities Preferred “Climate Niche” is Shifting Away From Where Most of Us Live Now // May 5, 2020

Why do we live where we do? Many complex social reasons exist, but fundamentally most of us live in a “climate niche” with Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) 11 to 15 C (52 to 59 F), consistent for humanity over the last 6000 years. This will shift significantly over the next 50 years.

  • The mean human will experience a temperature rise of +7.5 C, which is about 2.3 times the mean global temperature rise.
  • Furthermore, without migration 3.5 billion people will be exposed to MAT’s greater than 29 C that cover 19% of global land area;
  • this MAT is presently only found on 0.8% of the global land surface, mostly in the Sahara Desert.

Ref: Future of the human climate niche.
Xu, Kohler, Lenton, Svenning, and Scheffer. PNAS first published May 4, 2020.

We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints.

‘We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.’

What do you think about the Three UFO Videos Officially Released Recently by the Pentagon? // May 5, 2020

In this age of disruption both from abrupt climate change and exponential COVID-19 pandemic growth, we often need distractions. This is a very interesting and thought provoking diversion.

  • I elucidate my thoughts on three videos officially released by the Pentagon on “Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon” which the rest of us call UFOs.
  • I discuss the naval aviation footage and suggest explanations and chat about how we really need the military to release much more detail in order to reach an assessment.
  • I do think that there is almost certainly life out there in space; however can it contact us: see Drake equation?

Ref: Pentagon declassifies three UFO videos taken by Navy pilots.
TUE, APR 28 20206:32 AM ED, Natasha Turak.  CNBC:

The declassification of the videos late Monday was meant to “clear up any misconceptions by the public on whether or not the footage that has been circulating was real,” the Pentagon said in a statement Monday.

The footage, which shows unidentified objects flying at high speeds in the Earth’s atmosphere along with audio of Navy pilots expressing shock and awe, was initially leaked in 2007 and 2017‘.
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About paulbeckwith

Well known climate science educator; Part-time Geography professor (climatology, oceanography, environmental issues), University of Ottawa. Physicist. Engineer. Master's Degree in Science in Laser Optics, Bachelors of Engineering, in Engineering Physics. Won Association of Professional Engineers of Ontario gold medal. Also interested in investment and start-ups in climate solutions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Avid chess player, and likes restoring old homes. Married with children.
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1 Response to “Climate Niche” Shifting Away From Where Most Live

  1. Ronald says:

    Another recent and related paper is:
    The emergence of heat and humidity too severe for human tolerance

    Again, rather alarming.


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