I have lots to share since much is happening, very quickly:
Je suis Paris! I am going! To COP 21…
Then to Norway! To work on climate solutions!
I have confirmation on a badge giving me full conference access for Week 1, and will permanently cross my fingers to improve my Week 2 chances, but if the second week does not pan out I have lots to do outside the venue.
Here is more information on the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, aka COP 21 (French version). November 30th to December 11th.
This COP is a huge deal for the planet. We have had 20 COPs, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are still rapidly rising. Perhaps this will be lucky 21 for the planet. Blackjack anybody? As if this COP was not already a big deal BEFORE last week’s woeful attack. Security will be very tight.
I will share more details in the next week or so, as I become aware of more details. You know that with Beckwith you get the unfiltered version of everything. But in a nutshell, through the magic of UPSI founder Stuart Scott, I will be assisting in production of his film covering the event. Perhaps I will be able to turn the tables on people that are interviewing me, by interviewing them immediately afterwards!
Alert followers will recall that I was beside Stuart in many press conferences on the Arctic, methane, and the economics of climate change in Peru, late last year at COP 20. This year’s COP will be different. A tipping point in human understanding, behavior and action on abrupt climate change seems to be in the air. If not now, then when? We cannot wait any longer.
I wanted to announce this Europe trip to you before, as each day the POP (probability-of-Paris for me) increased slightly, but I did not want to be like ‘the boy who cried wolf’.
Now POP =1. It is definite. 100%. But what is not definite is how I will pay for all my expenses. I am bringing a sleeping bag and will cut costs to the bone, but one still need bones. I have some support, but any financial support that you could spare is greatly appreciated. A huge thank you to those of you who have already donated to Paul, through PayPal on the above right menu on my website. If it is specifically for Paris, please let me know that.
When in Paris I will participate in talks and hopefully in press conferences, film interviews and events and be filmed, interview and get interviewed with scientists, politicians, decision makers and climate solution investors. I will try to get something out to you each day.
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I was recently extensively interviewed over Skype by Nick from North Carolina, USA; a Disaster Management Relief Specialist and Humanitarian. He uploaded my recorded thoughts onto his new site, and posted a blog that was spotlessly written. Solid as a rock. Have a read and listen to Relief Analysis, Operational Analysis on Emerging Disasters, at this link.
My main message to the Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance Community is that “We are not in a steady state any longer. We are in a period of abrupt climate change. Right now. Today.”
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The podcast interview with me is not embedded quite yet, so eager listeners can hear it on iTunes or Windows Media, by simply downloading the full 45 minute interview here [dk will help Nick set it up on SoundCloud. Strongly suggested. Easy to do. Sorry, WordPress does not recognize this basic file type, due to obvious security controls].
Highlights from Nick’s ReliefAnalysis.com blog:
‘The “Godzilla” El Nino is stressing humanitarian and disaster relief operations worldwide; fires are raging in Alaska, Siberia and the rain forests of Indonesia; Hurricane Patricia’s recent explosion to a Category 5+ monster cyclone was almost unprecedented … all of these events are only the beginning of a rapid acceleration into uncharted territory … a tipping point into an entirely new climate state for our planet.
Combine the additional water vapor in Earth’s atmosphere’ (about 7% more water vapor per degree Celsius of temperature rise), a wavy and erratic fractured jet stream, and a potential catastrophic reduction in Arctic Sea Ice and spring snow cover, and I foresee ‘an increase in frequency, duration, and severity of disaster-level weather events on the scale of 10-20 times greater (not a typo) than today in the not-so-distant future.’ Also, strange things are happening in locations they did not happen before, for example torrential rains in Middle Eastern deserts, and large snowfalls in the driest desert in the world (Atacama Desert).
As I stated many years ago, “What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. Not like Vegas.” My quote, used by many others including John Kerry recently.
Blue Ocean Event: Refers to the loss of the majority of Arctic Sea Ice during the summer melt season, resulting in vast expanses of open waters in the Arctic Ocean. Sea ice is currently in a fragile state. My view is that ‘a Blue Ocean Event is likely to occur as early as 2020, or even … albeit with low probability … the summer of 2016, depending on Arctic weather conditions. …
Jet Stream Alteration: When flowing strongly and mostly west-to-east (called zonally, versus north-south (meridionally)), the Jet Stream essentially guides weather patterns. With the Arctic warmer, the temperature difference between the tropics and the Arctic is less’ … suggesting ‘an increase in the frequency, severity and duration of disaster occurrences by 10-20 times once this occurs. …
Uninhabitable Hot Zones: Following a Blue Ocean event, the southern latitudes will begin to heat significantly, as there is less of a temperature differential between the Arctic and the tropics, and heat builds steadily at low latitudes instead of being transported northward. Some hot and humid areas of Southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East could actually be rendered uninhabitable for our species as “wet bulb” temperatures soar towards 35C (95F)—the limit of the human body’s ability to regulate its own temperature. …
Methane Hydrates and the Paleo Perspective: ‘… An ominous wildcard looms deep in the waters of the Arctic Ocean and in the permafrost of the Arctic Circle. Methane hydrates—the decayed legacy of flora and fauna of eons ago—could potentially be unleashed from the ground to the atmosphere if temperatures warm enough. A large methane release … could unleash enough greenhouse gasses to tip the planet into an entirely new climate regime. Or perhaps not entirely new from a geologic perspective—methane eruptions have happened before. 56 million years ago, methane releases warmed the Earth an incredible 5C in 13 years. …
Non-Linear Sea Level Rise: A Blue Ocean Event would accelerate“non-linear” rates of melt in Greenland and Antarctica, ‘causing a rapid rise of Sea Level much faster than projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’. … Island nations, and coastal communities around the planet are extremely vulnerable. ‘Pulses of meltwater from Greenland could further slow the Gulf Stream, causing major changes global weather patterns.’
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I am going to Norway after Paris. I am working on climate solutions, and meeting many politicians, companies, and decision makers. David tells me that on this website the vast majority of European visitors and views are from Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark. Since Germany and France are so vast, this is quite a Scandinavian concentration. This indicates the great awareness and concern for our Earth in the Baltic nations, and shows their motivation to innovate, improve, and reduce emissions.
Since I am more than an academic, scientist, influencer, and soon to be author, this European trip is a crucial part of my work, and your help (any amount) is appreciated. Thus far, the cost of my website is about 40% covered, and this trip will ding my finances. Austa la vista, baby. If the NTHE (near-term-human-extinction) crowd is correct (and I do not think they are) then we will not need retirement savings anyways.
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Two more things, in case I have not already said enough: much work continues to be done on the site. Most recently we made large updates to (L to R on Menu tab): Basic Chronology, the major tab on Videos, my Laser Work in a past life, My two patents, the elephant in every room: global Population, Groups AMEG and CMOS. If you missed my heavily filled out Book section from three days ago, you might be missing out. A fan favorite.
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I have begun writing a book, seeking to clearly explain abrupt climate system change in easy, simple to understand terms. David is coaching me to hold off, until, as he puts it “I clean my entire kitchen, pots, and pans as it were, before preparing a big new meal.” I am resisting his often excellent advice, on this one.
Plotting a book gives me energy. Great energy. And moreover, it gives me a solid, definite, knowable place to put my ideas. As great as Twitter, Facebook, and a website are, there is much excitement in me to write, to contrast my consummate reading.
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My latest video came out a few days ago. See Beckwith is Back – Abrupt Climate System Update. Our webpage has had 2,200 views in the last three days as a result of this.
Both the illustrious Jennifer Hynes and I are shown in Marc Haneburght’s excellent recent video, shown here. Strongly suggest you NOT miss the potent, bone chilling moment where Rignot says “That’s not holy sh_t, it’s worse than that’ clip, here. Continues with Jenn, then me at 23:52 mark. The real money shot for me, is here at the 24:53 mark and continues from there to 26:53. This is the real deal.
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[Some viewers have rightly noted technical imperfections in the recording of Paul’s videos–jitter, audio, etc. But at the same time, you cannot have an off road suspension AND a high speed racecar that can take curves at 200 mph in one place (adaptive versus solid if not stiff).
Choices. Some also LOVE the informality, and the live interaction. Be advised, support is being given soon to Paul, separately from donations, for a studio setting in his basement. Details will follow. Just know that with Paul-4.0 evolution is quickly occurring. dk]
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Onwards and upwards,
Sincerely, Paul // Five pm EST, Fri_20-Nov-2015.
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[Quick addendum 11 pm EST, Fri_20-Nov-2015, till sep post latter, dk:]
Extinction Radio 35 is out. Paul’s segment with Ivey starts at 1:12:51 here, and full broadcast for convenience, here:
Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist 