Climate YODA James Hansen Gold Q&A in Paris // Published on Jan 12, 2016
At COP21 in Paris on December 2nd, 2015 I filmed legendary climate change GURU James Hansen answering questions on the climate system, his recent presentations and papers, a global carbon fee-and-dividend to slash fossil fuel emissions, and other topics. Great information from this highly respected
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Sir David King on severe climate change threats //Published on Jan 11, 2016
I filmed this very important talk at COP21 in Paris on December 5, 2015. The chief scientific advisor to the British government, Sir David King discusses the extremely rapid Arctic warming and the immediate threats this poses to you and I and our kids.
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“Joie de vivre” on a Paris Train //Published on Jan 10, 2016
A typical “joy of life” scene on a Paris train heading to my hostel on my COP21 adventure. This happens everywhere you go in the “City of Lights” aka “City of Love”..
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When I was at the COP21 climate change conference in Paris, France in early December, 2015, I received many requests for radio and TV interviews via phone, emails on various different accounts, and social media. When an email came out of the blue with an interview request by CCTV I accepted, having not heard of them before. I suggested that we chat over Skype, or that they call me directly. Instead, they wanted to meet in person and do a direct interview, suggesting that it would be best in early January. I accepted, of course and after a quick search I discovered that China Central Television (CCTV), according to Wikipedia:
“China Central Television is China’s largest and most powerful national television station. By the 1980s, two-thirds of people in China had access to television, while today, over 3,000 channels are available in the country.”
I was pleasantly flabbergasted. In early January a film crew visited me in Ottawa, and I was interviewed for almost an hour. Great questions about climate change, our strange weather extremes, and many other topics. Below is the first few minutes of footage put on air from our interview. I wonder how many of the 1.2 billion people in China were watching? Lots, I hope…
Probably the single best TOTAL Extinction Radio show yet, I was told. And here I am on that Extinction Radio program, number 43, from January 15, 2016:
Impatient listeners can go right to my 18:28 long segment starting at 1:06:24, by clicking here.
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Similar to a few days ago, just click Recent Videos here where we continue to share my latest. We will post a third time Friday and have a special treat in store for that one.
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And here is a replay, of a fantastically good podcast with Alex Smith. While we already shared this in September, I have been told by many that this was one of my best, and duly reshare here. Know you will enjoy:
‘CLIMATE NEWS ROUNDUP WITH PAUL BECKWITH
Over the summer in the Northern Hemisphere, climate change put in an extreme appearance all over the world. It looks like 2015 will be the hottest year ever, another record-setting year in a string of hot years. Sooner or later, our civilization will begin to crack under the strain. Our next guest suggests a climate shift could be sooner than most people expect.
It’s time for our climate roundup with climate scientist, and regular Radio Ecoshock guest, Paul Beckwith, from the University of Ottawa.’
We added new Recent Videos, here. I have like eighteen new videos–mostly filmed in Europe.
Not ten, not fifteen, but exactly eighteen for those of you who were maybe missing out, is quite well remedied again. Hope you like them in and in the days ahead will continue to share them, by publishing them here.
And since some of those are Videos OF Others, and are taken by me, we added that feature today. So its top videos of me, my best videos, video by me of others, videos by others of me, older videos, and so on–we try to be smart about it. When you have twenty of thirty videos, there is no need for this. But up toward 150 or 180, it really gets needed to avoid a terrible pile up
New videos means new. So we moved the videos previously in that tab, from July or so, and added those to the bottom of the Other Videos tab.
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Here is Alex Smith’s most recent podCast with a great feature with Stuart Scott, and I am amply mentioned here, at Through a Dark Portal:
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Lastly, my current work is only 2/3rds funded, so any continued or new donations are or were very, very much appreciated. That calculation does not even include Paris, and this semester am ONLY teaching just one class, and so truly doing my best to help the earth. You know that.
Every bit helps! Donations to Paul at PayPal here, the way we have set it up, is a very easy and painless process. Neither David nor I are getting rich off this and he continues to discount his discount to be able to continue to powerfully support me here. We are all pulling. Thank you.
25,253 views in last three months is a good start. Plan is clearly headed to 100,000 by late Summer, maybe sooner. Its working.
‘The hollow cheering of success at the end of the Paris Agreement proved yet again that people will hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest’ .
The Paris Agreement to tackle global warming has actually dealt a major setback to the fight against climate change, leading academics will warn.
The deal may have been trumpeted by world leaders but is far too weak to do help prevent devastating harm to the Earth, it is claimed.
In a joint letter to The Independent, some of the world’s top climate scientists launch a blistering attack on the deal, warning that it offers “false hope” that could ultimately prove to be counterproductive in the battle to curb global warming.
The letter, which carries eleven signatures including professors Peter Wadhams and Stephen Salter, of the universities of Cambridge and Edinburgh, warns that the Paris Agreement is dangerously inadequate.
Because of the Paris failure, the academics say the world’s only chance of saving itself from rampant global warming is a giant push into controversial and largely untested geo-engineering technologies that seek to cool the planet by manipulating the Earth’s climate system. …
“The hollow cheering of success at the end of the Paris Agreement proved yet again that people will hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. What they disregarded were the deadly flaws lying just beneath its veneer of success,” the academics write in the the letter, … signed by … Professor Paul Beckwith of the University of Ottawa in Canada.
“What people wanted to hear was that an agreement had been reached on climate change that would save the world while leaving lifestyles and aspirations unchanged. The solution it proposes is not to agree on an urgent mechanism to ensure immediate cuts in emissions, but to kick the can down the road.”
… But they say the actions agreed are far too weak to get anywhere close to that target. Furthermore, the pledges countries have made to cut their carbon emissions are not sufficiently binding to ensure they are met, while the Paris Agreement will not force them to “ratchet” them up as often as they need to.
Of even greater concern, they say, is the lack of dramatic immediate action that was agreed to tackle global warming. The Paris Agreement only comes into force in 2020 – by which point huge amounts of additional CO2 will have been pumped into the atmosphere. The signatories claim this makes it all but impossible to limit global warming to 2C, let alone 1.5C.
“The Paris Agreement’s heart was in the right place but the content is worse than inept. It was a real triumph for international diplomacy and sends a strong message that the sceptics have lost their case and that the science is correct on climate change. The rest is little more than fluff and risks locking in failure,” said Professor Kevin Anderson of Manchester University, who has not signed the letter but agrees with its argument.
Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at the University of Cambridge and a signatory of the letter, said the prospects for curbing global warming following the Paris Agreement are now so dire that he advocates a charge into geo-engineering – not something he recommends lightly. “Other things being equal I’m not a great fan of geo-engineering but I think it absolutely necessary given the situation we’re in. It’s a sticking plaster solution. But you need it because looking at the world, nobody’s instantly changing their pattern of life,” Prof Wadhams said.
Pumping huge amounts of water spray into clouds to make them bigger and brighter so that they reflect sunlight back into the atmosphere – known as Marine Cloud Brightening – offers the best geo-engineering prospect, he said.
Geo-engineering technologies – which also envisage putting giant mirrors in space or whitening the surface of the ocean to deflect incoming solar radiation back into space – are controversial because of fears that they are technically demanding, would be extremely expensive while interfering with the climate system could have damaging unintended consequences for the planet. …
Front page; print edition on a Saturday (highest circulation)!
The letter
The hollow cheering of success at the end of COP21 agreement proved yet again that people will hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. What people wanted to hear was that an agreement had been reached on climate change that would save the world while leaving lifestyles and aspirations unchanged.
What they disregarded were the deadly flaws lying just beneath its veneer of success. As early as the third page of the draft agreement is the acknowledgment that its CO2 target won’t keep the global temperate rise below 2 deg C, the level that was once set as the critical safe limit. The solution it proposes is not to agree on an urgent mechanism to ensure immediate cuts in emissions, but to kick the can down the road by committing to calculate a new carbon budget for a 1.5 deg C temperature increase that can be talked about in 2020.
Given that we can’t agree on the climate models or the CO2 budget to keep temperatures rises to 2 deg C, then we are naïve to think we will agree on a much tougher target in five years when, in all likelihood, the exponentially increasing atmospheric CO2 levels mean it will be too late.
More ominously, these inadequate targets require mankind to do something much more than cut emissions with a glorious renewable technology programme that will exceed any other past human endeavour. They also require carbon to be sucked out the air. The favoured method is to out-compete the fossil fuel industry by providing biomass for power stations. This involves rapidly growing trees and grasses faster than nature has ever done on land we don’t have, then burning it in power stations that will capture and compress the CO2 using an infrastructure we don’t have and with technology that won’t work on the scale we need and to finally store it in places we can’t find. To maintain the good news agenda, all of this was omitted from the agreement.
The roar of devastating global storms has now drowned the false cheer from Paris and brutally brought into focus the extent of our failure to address climate change. The unfortunate truth is that things are going to get much worse. The planet’s excess heat is now melting the Arctic Ice cap like a hot knife through butter and is doing so in the middle of winter. Unless stopped, this Arctic heating will lead to a rapid release of the methane clathrates from the sea floor of the Arctic and herald the next phase of catastrophically intense climate change that our civilisation will not survive.
The time for the wishful thinking and blind optimism that has characterised the debate on climate change is over. The time for hard facts and decisions is now. Our backs are against the wall and we must now start the process of preparing for geo-engineering. We must do this in the knowledge that its chances of success are small and the risks of implementation are great.
We must look at the full spectrum of geoengineering. This will cover initiatives that increase carbon sequestration by restoration of rain forests to the seeding of oceans. It will extend to solar radiation management techniques such as artificially whitening clouds and, in extremis, replicating the aerosols from volcanic activity. It will have to look at what areas that we selectively target, such as the methane emitting regions of the Arctic and which areas we avoid.
The high political and environmental risks associated with this must be made clear so that it is never used as an alternative to making the carbon cuts that are urgently needed. Instead cognisance of these must be used to challenge the narrative of wishful thinking that has infested the climate change talks for the past twenty one years and which reached its zenith with the CO21 agreement. In today’s international vacuum on this, it is imperative that our government takes a lead.
Signed by
Professor Paul Beckwith, University of Ottawa Professor Stephen Salter – Edinburgh University Professor Peter Wadhams – Cambridge University Professor James Kennett of University of California. Dr Hugh Hunt – Cambridge University Dr. Alan Gadian -Senior Scientist, Nation Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, University of Leeds Dr. Mayer Hillman – Senior Fellow Emeritus of the Institute of the Policy Studies Institute Dr. John Latham – University of Manchester Aubrey Meyer – Director, Global Commons Institute. John Nissen – Chair Arctic Methane Emergency Group Kevin Lister – Author of “The Vortex of Violence and why we are losing the war on climate change”
My interview with the fantastically good Alex Smith, was published here, on Dec 6th, 2015, but is now fortunately available in Podcast, at his site and SoundCloud, as distinct from link only. Duly shared again in convenient form. Thank you Alex!
Impatient listeners can go straight to my segment, at 20:51, here, 18:18 long. Goes to 39:09
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I am also at the current Extinction Radio Show 42, Fri 08 January, 2016, interviewed by Peter Melton.
Impatient listeners can go straight to my segment, at 1:14:16, here, 19:28 long. Goes to 1:33:44.
And besides my segment, loyal Yoda David Korn, is the featured guest this week, with no less than a 43:32 segment, shared here (starts at 22:25 and goes to 1:05:57). If you did not know what he was like, a listen here will not leave you still wondering. David is to energy, words, and ideas that coffee is to starting a day. A kick but a good one. Trust me on this.
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First-person account of house loss due to recent US flooding…
Background from Tenney: “The main thing is that all weather now includes climate change because the atmosphere is warmer. For decades models have forecast that since the atmosphere can hold more water vapor under warmer temperatures we will have much heavier precipitation events and more intense droughts because the extra water in the air tends to clump together rather than being spread out over the planet.
Today’s weather is taking place against a background of a warmer, wetter atmosphere. What we cannot say now is how much of an event is attributable to climate change, but we can certainly say that these extreme events are exacerbated by it.
So we have more intense and longer-lasting droughts. Huge snowfalls. Horrible rain events. Massive floods. Worse, the rain doesn’t relieve the droughts because it falls over a shorter period of time and rushes away, either not having a chance to soak in or taking precious topsoil with it.
So all weather today has an element of global warming added to it. In the U.S. Midwest, we’ve now had two 1,000-year floods in 22 years. My oldest first cousin, Mark, lives (lived) on the Meramec River in southeastern Missouri. During the enormous Mississippi River flood (and tributaries) in 1993, the Meramec River came up to the steps of his house. This time, it took his house down the river, and he barely got out of the area because the roads were so flooded. After the river took his house, it rose another 8 feet.
I will copy below his email and attach some photos.”
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‘First-person flood account by Mark
To all my friends, It kinda looked like it might rain last Friday. It did, three inches at my home. River was rising and the creek was coming up. By noon Saturday it was drive out or stay, and I decided to ride out the storm. It is an amazing sight to watch the river rise, what’s the worst that could happen?
Sunday the river still rising but not any worse than I had seen before. The rain slowed down to only an inch in the previous 24 hours. I can go on line to “Meramec River Monitor” to check out river stages and rainfall at various points along the river. This gave me a good idea of what was coming from upstream. I also was watching the storm on weather channels on the net. By noon I decided that this flood was going to be a big one and began to prepare for it. John my friend and neighbor had also decided to stay. I conferred with him and told him I was preparing for the worst. (I thought I knew what that was!)
I started with the basement, but it was in good shape. Then started to load my car with valuables, photo albums, etc. I put dresser drawers on top of dressers. My beloved Tempurpedic mattress as high as possible. I had a stash place in my attic where I put recording gear, microphones, stereo equipment, a few guitars and an amp, all my art work. Unless it got over three feet high in my home, I would be ok.
Meanwhile I was watching the Rams play Seattle, who they soundly beat in Seattle for the first time in 10 years. Things were looking up! Darkness came and the river was still rising. It was still raining but not significantly. By 10 or 11 PM Sunday it was obvious I would have to cut through the fence and drive my car and me to safety at some time. The river was two feet up in my basement at the time. I was exhausted and hungry so at 11:30PM I stopped and ate a good meal. 30 minutes later there was 6” of water surrounding my car. I walked over to the field gate, in the flood water, and realized my car would stall out before I got to the field. I was able to drive my car the other direction to a dry spot and I cut the fence. It was time to leave.
I let John know that the water was coming across the field. This meant that if he didn’t leave then he would surrounded by flood waters very soon. So I wade back to my home pack a bag with a few days of clothes, some fruit and some excellent chocolate chip cookies Glenda made for me. I was tired and dirty. I needed a shower, so I took a quick one. Rolled up my pant legs and walked through the water barefoot to my car. I drove into the field with a few heart stopping slides here and there to high ground. John saw my headlights and texted hi.
That night the wind blew hard and the rain came a tumbling down. It was cold so every couple of hours I would wake up, and turn on the car to warm up. I had make sure I didn’t fall back to sleep and end up dying of carbon monoxide poisoning. With my aged bladder I would have to get out to relieve myself several times. That meant getting out in the wind, cold, and rain. Oh I was a happy camper!
The sun rose and the rain kept coming down. I kind sat there stunned, tired, and cold. I waited a few hours, snoozing occasionally, sending a few texts. Fortunately I had some cell service on the hill there. The rain started slowing down. It was time to hike out. Except for one last detail. John was still there. I was telling him I was getting ready to hike out, time for him to join me. He refused. He was on an island at this time. I again implored him to leave, again he refused, so I took off hiking.
Over hill over dale, light rain and wind. The road was under water for the first mile and a half. Fortunately I hike these hills often, (trespass) so I knew where I was. It took an hour and a half of vigorous hiking to go about 2 and half miles. I text John, “if I don’t hear from you in 15 minutes I am calling 911”. He responds all caps “I WILL IF I NEED TO”. Exasperated, tired and wet I rest for 30 minutes.
What to do about John? Rested, I continue on my hike to safety. Another 2 1/2 miles and I make it to Carol’s house, where she has rental cabins. She is flooded in but on high ground. I phone John. It is now about 1:30. I tell him he has about 20 minutes to make a decision to call 911. It will be getting dark soon and if he doesn’t call now there may not be time to put together a rescue. He says he will think about it.
An hour later through the grapevine I hear that he did call 911 and was rescued (he didn’t give me the courtesy of a text). You can see some footage of John’s rescue at Facebook, Sullivan Independent News. So about three o’clock I go take the best hot shower of my life. Put on clean dry clothes and wander to a window to see the view. There was a leak and I stepped on wet carpet in my clean socks. Oh what cruelty life can bring.
The next day the world can finally get closer and I arrange for a ride to pick me up. They have to park on the hill and I walk to them a 1/4 mile. Off we go to St. Louis. About noon driving back I get a phone call from a neighbor. They own the property on the bluff across from me. They had hiked in to survey the valley and took some pictures. They had some bad news. My home was gone.
I want every one to know that I am in good spirits, considering. I am warm safe and dry. I won’t have to busy myself hosing down and cleaning up after the flood as I have done many times before. I did have flood insurance for my house, not possessions, so I am not financially battered too bad.
I will rebuild. If I can still get flood insurance, (a big if since they paid out $35,000 8 years ago) I will rebuild a new castle. If I can’t, I will rebuild something more modest. Either way the 31st annual 4th of July Party is still on!
So today I will go buy some clothes. Not too many, I don’t have any place to put them. I will go back in a few days to get my car. I will have one of my many river friends take me in their jet boat down river a 1/2 mile to a log jam where the river deposits it’s newest possessions. Hopefully I can find a few mementos.
I plan on taking my annual winter Florida holiday early this year, like starting next week. If you try to call me or text me, please be patient if I don’t get back to you right away. I know you all care for me and wish to be helpful. At this time I am still sorting things out.
Mark of the Meramec // There has been some confusion regarding the last photos. What you see is my roof in my neighbor’s yard. There is no house under it.
In the last photo you can see my car in the distance.’
My new Syllabus and Outline was just posted. You can view it, download it, or see it on the cloud. I am excited and eager to be back. So far, there are 70+ persons who have enrolled and it is not Monday yet. Promises to be a great class on the single most important subject of our time.
Of course the stuck jet stream is heading North North East and separates the cold dry air from the Arctic extending far southward in the wave trough on the West from the warm humid air in the wave crest from the tropics extending far northward on the East. The jet stream has slowed, and become much wavier in the N-S direction and is stuck, leading to persistent conditions. It is wavier and slower because the Arctic has warmed like a bat-out-of-hell compared to the more lethargic Equatorial warming.
The Arctic blast furnace is caused by the exponential decline in sea-ice cover, and even more-so by the exponential reduction in spring snow cover. The loss of these highly reflective surfaces means that the darker ocean water and underlying permafrost, respectively is exposed and thus absorbs more sunlight thereby amplifying the warming even more. The surface organic matter in the permafrost undergoes bacterial decomposition after it thaws, and releases methane gas and carbon dioxide, in the respective cases of anaerobic (no oxygen present) and aerobic bacterial decomposition (rotting).
The warmer ocean temperatures extends to the seafloor, especially over the vast Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) and the Kara Sea shells, the former of which is one of the largest continental shelves on the entire planet. This methane release, with a potential for enormous burps of gas can entirely change our climate within a year or two by propelling us into a much warmer world, one without any sea ice or snow cover year round in the Arctic. Buckle your seatbelts. The only way we can prevent this is to go into planetary-three-legged-stool-emergency-mode and:
Leg 3: immediately deploy SRM (solar radiation management) to cool the Arctic to buy us time for Legs 1 and 2.
QED (quo errat demonstratum; aka quite easily done)…
Paul Beckwith – Rapid Climate System Changes // Published on Jan 6, 2016
This is a presentation that I did in Kragerø, Norway in the middle of December 2015. This was held just days after I arrived in Norway from COP21 in Paris. The presentation is 90+ minutes long.
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Paul Beckwith at the UNFCC
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Here I am, positively leading off the ‘Best of the previous 39 Episodes’, at ‘Extinction Radio. This is shared on Episode 40, Dec 24, 2015, The Best of Show’. Impatient or over demanded listeners can hasten to my segment, starting at 3:37 mark, here. 4:34 long. Goes to 8:11 mark.
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A really excellent quality video. My segment starts at 6:17 for those in for the quick dive, click here. 3:34 long, goes to 9:51 mark. Also 1:59 to 2:14 and from 44:29 to 44:44 (links, direct to segments, each 0:15 secs).
Youth Climate Report 6 COP21 // Published on Nov 29, 2015
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[Wish to go on record, that I am not sure I am comfortable with this or him, but so be it, Paul noted it, and worth a quick listen. Bet Bill lives a MUCH better life than me–on the material level–but asking for money, leaves me very uncomfortable, feels creepy, a term I have not used ONCE in my life. Fact. As for the mud and poignency, I am OK with that. dk]
Bill McKibben’s muddy backyard // Uploaded on Dec 24, 2015
A somewhat gloomy fundraising video shot in record-hot Vermont weather, December 2015.
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‘As the Aliso Canyon natural gas leak continues to spew into the air, Rhode Island’s small hamlet of Burrillville is now facing the chance to be the future site of such a catastrophe. With the help of a key Democratic Party endorsement and accession from labor union bosses who should know better, Rhode Island may soon host a fracked natural gas plant rather than the saner move of a sustainable electric plant.’
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‘1. 2015 The world will fail to take the rapid action required to prevent the acceleration of climate change and its pervasive negative impacts. Thus, temperatures will rise above the 2C mark (that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “IPCC” had set as a target) above pre-industrial levels within two decades.
2. 2015 The IPCC predictions of 3.6C to 4.8C by the year 2100 significantly underestimates both the rate of change and its absolute temperature increase by at least a factor of two. This is because the models operate linearly and do not allow for the effects of non-linear hockey stick change and because, politically they have been toned down for general consumption‘. Continues at link above.
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‘This was the starting point of the whole project. A little self-published pamphlet, born out of two years of conversations, crowdfunded over the internet, launched at a small riverside gathering outside Oxford in summer 2009.
Written by Paul and Dougald, it marked our first attempt to put into words the ideas and feelings which led us to Dark Mountain. Think of it as a flag raised so that we can find one another. A point of departure, rather than a party line. An invitation to a larger conversation that continues to take us down unexpected paths.’
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An outstanding piece from fellow contributor, at Extinction Radio, Gail Zawacki’s Wits End, one reader said was ‘best of year’. I agree (dk). Called ‘No Mercy‘
‘“I think we are just insects, we live a bit and then die and that’s the lot. There’s no mercy in things. There’s not even a Great Beyond. There’s nothing.” ~ John Fowles, The Collector
‘Following is the transcript to my 19th Dispatch from the Endocene which aired on the Extinction Radio episode of Friday, January 1, 2016. Happy New Year!’
Few people realize that the air has become toxic. You can’t see ozone, anymore than you can see oxygen, or nitrogen, invisible gases. So most people don’t know that the concentration of ozone from burning coal, oil, gas, and forests is becoming poisonous to humans and even more damaging to plants that absorb it.’
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This is quite bone chillingly important. Worth a good listen. By the esteemed Nick Breeze.
Interview: Polar ice expert, Professor Peter Wadhams: The Arctic, Paris & Politicians // Published on Sep 22, 2015
‘Interview: Polar ice expert, Professor Peter Wadhams, discusses the increased dangers of climate change in the Arctic, the potential for runaway impacts and what politicians should decide when they meet in Paris.
‘With the recent Arctic sea ice minimum extent for 2015 announced on the 11th September showing the 4th lowest sea ice extent on record. Little comfort can be drawn from US Navy data that shows the sea ice thickness (not visible from satellites) is still declining, especially around the Beaufort Sea and the North Pole, where increased storm activity is further breaking up the ice.’
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‘The ferocious storm cell that spawned deadly tornadoes in the US over the weekend is expected to develop into what meteorologists call a “bomb cyclone”, steering exceptionally warm air over the Arctic and more flooding rains into the UK.
One widely used computer model, the Global Forecast System, is predicting the storm to drop pressure levels sharply by Tuesday night, easily exceeding the “bomb cyclone” criteria of at least 24 millibars in 24 hours, according to the Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang.
“We’ve probably never seen weather like what’s being predicted for a vast region stretching from the North Atlantic to the North Pole and on into the broader Arctic this coming week,” said Robert Scribbler, an environmental blogger.’
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‘More than two-thirds of the world’s power plants may have trouble running at full capacity as the warming climate affects water supplies, according to a new study. Reduced stream flows and rising water temperatures may reduce monthly generating capacity at nuclear, fossil-fuel and biofuel-powered plants by as much as 30 percent by the 2050s, according to research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. Global hydropower capacity is expected to drop by as much as 3.6 percent in the 2050s and almost double that amount by the 2080s.’
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“Had we been in a trance? I wanted to shout, “Wake up! Please wake up! Our old future is gone. Matters are urgent. We have to do something now.” We continue to face an odd fixed deep denial from climate experts on the very worst impacts of global warming, which as has been known for decades is Arctic meltdown feedback global runaway. As the real time evidence has mounted this denial has become more entrenched. Only a couple of experts pointed out that the historic Paris Agreement in fact condemned us to a a catastrophic 3C temperature increase climate disruption by 2100.
The science academies had nothing on the Paris agreement and no Paris statement. This worst case denial coming from our top minds, is the main reason I think for the general denial of the global climate planetary emergency. This is so tragic because a declaration of an individual medical emergency and a social disaster emergency is a message of hope. Global warming is burning our neighbour’ s African house and we are smelling the smoke in our house- Sound the fire alarm and declare the emergency. The conventional wisdom(-not) from climate change leaders that has developed over the past two decades (at least) has been to gently coax the public by benign non alarming messaging into considering climate change seriously.
I thinkJohn Nissenis right that we are facing climate catastrophe expert denial. This would be due to understandable but unacceptable classic psychological projection. Climate experts did not enter the science expecting or equipped to deal with planet destroying impending planetary climate cataclysms, so the public is made to be the reason to deny dealing with the worst of global warming publicly. It has been encouraged by the highly effective ‘alarmist’ strategy of the dangerous climate change denial campaign. I have even found avoiding ‘alarmism’ in published climate change papers.
This the public can’t cope with scary climate change, has no psychological basis and defies political sense on responding to catastrophic climate change risks, but in general climate leaders and climate experts consider themselves psychological experts when it comes to dangerous climate change communication. Bill McKibben is an excellent exception on climate NGO leaders and James Hansen on climate experts. The record of past successful environmental campaigns shows when people see their families under direct pollution threat of horrible diseases and potential death they act powerfully to force govt action (e.g. Love Canal).
The first minute makes the point of the power of a person aroused. For public communication cold facts alone do not make the message- the emotion is the deeper message. To realize a democratic sea change in government climate change response (=still more delay) we need a massive active well informed public majority. Nowhere is this clearer than in the USA.This strategy is not working. There is little difference in public beliefs and public action about climate change since the early 1990s.
Big Gap between What Scientists Say and Americans Think about Climate Change. “Only 33 percent of the general public said it was a very serious problem in a 2013 poll”. That said, disastrous to catastrophic events will likely soon be so bad as to go beyond a public psychological threshold of being able to face the Hell on Earth future. Another reason we are right out of time. Right now we can keep hope alive by communicating the full terrible truth of continued govt inaction and the remedial immediate emergence actions that must be taken. It’s simple common sense precaution.
Stop fossil fuel subsidies. Charge the full cost of GHG pollution to the large central polluters. Look for the worst cases and prepare for the worst. In my case, my generation brought on catastrophic atmosphericGHG pollutionwith global warming climate change and ocean acidification, making it my responsibility to sound the planetary alarm and call for the global emergency response. Cheers,Peter Carter– AMEG member”
Peter is a retired doctor, after nearly 40 years in practice as a family physician, first in England and then in Newfoundland and British Columbia, Canada.
When his sons were born, he became actively involved in environmental, peace, and sustainable development issues, especially as they relate to children’s health‘.
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As I have said many times, Alex Smith’s Radio EcoShock is a favorite and boy does he deliver. My segment is about 11:17 long, and those impatient or too busy can click here, to go right to my segment, starting at 21:13 mark. Here I talk from Norway, about my constructive impressions and takeaways as to COP21.
Discussed the behind the scenes aspect of diplomats, negotiators, policy makers. Comment on Stern Review, and percentage of global GDP allocated to climate change; regarding James Hansen’s black and white view, if not indictment; bi-lateral partnerships with China and Latin America. See ball roll faster and faster.
‘Paris is only the beginning, not the end, I would argue’. Conference of Parties, 196 countries. Reading faces of folks like William. Gates who was there, or Kerry, Musk who are getting concerned about observed changes. Like night and day, compared to Lima. Medical institutions, reporting impact on health, including mental states. Major impact of shipping industry was left out of COP but now being incorporated. Negative impact of ‘climate casino’ on cities.
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In 1819 American author Washington Irving published the short story “Rip Van Winkle“. In this tale a man from a small village near the Catskill Mountains heads off into the mountains to hunt, and meets and drinks with an English explorer. He then falls into a deep sleep and awakens about 20 years later.
I felt like this man after I returned to Ottawa, but for a few days rather than 20 years. This was partly a result of the excitement and work intensity on my travels, and partly because I slept in the lounge of Oslo Airport to catch an early morning flight home. Fitfully, thinking that my luggage would vanish if I fell asleep, until I devised a security system. I tied a string from my big toe to my luggage bags and cart to allow enough peace of mind to catch some winks.
What if I had fallen asleep for 20 years? What type of world would I awaken to? The answer to that question depends on what we do NOW. Not tomorrow, or in the next year, or in the next 5 years. But NOW.
Door A:
If we carry on business-as-usual and continue to burn fossil fuels, the chemistry of the atmosphere and oceans will continue to change, trapping more heat in the former and destroying the marine food chain in the latter.
The enormous Arctic warming has already disrupted Earth’s heat balance from the equator to the poles causing global circulation patterns in the atmosphere to go haywire, and now recently the ocean currents and surface heat patterns are completely changing. Extreme weather events around the planet are wreaking havoc on our cities and infrastructure and global food sources. If continued, with abrupt climate change, first cities will drop like dominoes cascading to nation state failure and even societal collapse.
Door B:
We accept that we have an unprecedented global emergency on our plate from abrupt climate change. We realize that this emergency threatens to take out our societies, and our technologies, and our subsidence and our humanity. Not only that, it threatens to remove all of our structures and science and historical signatures and achievements that have been accomplished on the Earth throughout human history.
Once we realize this, we must ACT, in concert and with all our resources and capital to fight this. We may fail in the end to reverse our course, but we must try. Nations of the planet must declare a global emergency, and act in unison.
To do what, exactly?
What we must do is simple; we must metaphorically provide stability to a three-legged bar stool.
Leg 1 is slashing fossil fuel combustion down to zero. Not by 2050, which is what many countries at the COP21 in Paris proposed to keep global temperature rise under 2 degrees C. Not by 2035, which they say may keep that temperature rise less than 1.5 C. We must slash emissions immediately, as that is the only option that we have to start arresting the abrupt climate change that is underway. The Paris Accord gets the ball rolling on this, but absolutely must be followed by action on reductions and quick acceleration. But this is only one leg of the stool, and is not alone sufficient.
Leg 2 is carbon dioxide removal (CDR). We have changed the chemistry of our atmosphere and oceans. The former completely changes the heat balance and thus circulation, and the latter threatens to wipe out the base of the marine food chain, and thus most marine life. My Norwegian colleagues and I at Gaia Engineering are designing practical systems to rapidly implement CDR, but are lacking funds.
Leg 3 is equally important to the first two legs; all three are needed to stabilize the bar stool and our global climate system. Leg 3 is developing and implementing practical methods of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) to cool the Arctic. This is essential to restore Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover to restore the equator-to-Arctic temperature balance and thus halt the ever accelerating increases in frequency, severity and duration of global extreme weather events. My colleagues and I at Gaia Engineering in Norway are also working on practical devices to achieve this.
We have no choice. Balancing a bar-stool with less than 3 legs is impossible. Let’s get a move on with rapid design and implementation.
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‘I wish I could just scream and let everybody know how big this is!‘ // Published on Dec 19, 2015
‘A first-hand report as Mike MacFerrin @University of Colorado at Boulder shows us extraordinary ice melt on Greenland. What will be the effects of the changing climate and what gives him hope?’
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‘2015 Arctic Report Card: Visual Highlights: Increasing air and sea surface temperatures, decreasing sea ice extent and Greenland ice sheet mass, and changing behavior of fish and walrus are among key observations released today in the Arctic Report Card 2015.’
Includes links to cogent, Global Climate Dashboard:
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Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: ‘How worrying is the world’s strange weather? Good round up from The Guardian: December temperatures in London have been warmer than July’s. Scotland is balmier than Barcelona. Artificial snow covers European ski slopes. Africa faces its worst food crisis in a generation as floods and droughts strike vulnerable countries.
With unusual weather from Britain to Australia, scientists are blaming climate change – but also the natural phenomenon called El Niño, which is raising temperatures and disrupting weather patterns. A double whammy then, but how disturbed should we be as the records tumble?‘
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Box has been studying the Greenland ice-sheet extensively for years and has accurate data on how global warming is creating changes that, left unchecked, will affect both weather patterns in the UK and Iceland, as well as sea-level rises around the world.
In the following excerpts from the conversation with Box, we discuss the cold freshwater “blob” that has appeared in the north Atlantic that could have impacts for places like the UK in terms of increased rainfall.‘
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ICIMOD Releases Himalayan Climate and Water Atlas. ‘Nowhere is this more true than in the world’s mountain regions, which have been identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as among the most vulnerable to climate change. Global water resources are facing increasing pressure from climate change and rising consumption.’
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We’re Doomed. Now What?, NY Times. ‘The time we’ve been thrown into is one of alarming and bewildering change — the breakup of the post-1945 global order, a multispecies mass extinction and the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. Not one of us is innocent, not one of us is safe. The world groans under the weight of seven billion humans; every new birth adds another mouth hungry for food, another life greedy for energy.’
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A+ from Sam Carana (dk), referred by Paul: On The Paris Agreement. He asks, ‘How much have temperatures risen already? As illustrated by above image, NASA data show that during the three-month period from September through November 2015, it was ~1°C warmer than it was in 1951-1980 (i.e the baseline).’
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Sixteen years in academia made me an a-hole, Salon: ‘After a decade at the Ivies, I work at a bar. But I’ve learned more waiting tables than I did as a professor’.
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‘Norway Offers Bees Safe Passage on the World’s First “Bee Highway“. Norwegian bees will soon be living the high life. Construction of a “bee highway” in Oslo aims to give these insects food, shelter and safe passage through the city. Bee hives and smatterings of flowering plants are popping up in backyards, on rooftops and on the terraces of companies and private citizens alike.’
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The world of threats to the US is an illusion: ‘WHEN AMERICANS look out at the world, we see a swarm of threats. China seems resurgent and ambitious. Russia is aggressive. Iran menaces our allies. Middle East nations we once relied on are collapsing in flames. Latin American leaders sound steadily more anti-Yankee. Terror groups capture territory and commit horrific atrocities. We fight Ebola with one hand while fending off Central American children with the other.
In fact, this world of threats is an illusion. The United States has no potent enemies. We are not only safe, but safer than any big power has been in all of modern history. Geography is our greatest protector. Wide oceans separate us from potential aggressors. Our vast homeland is rich and productive. No other power on earth is blessed with this security.’
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Mark Austin, at Nature Bats Last. Paul might not view things as this bad, but some do. Many have said this is the best PodCast on the show in years. You decide. Many who heard it had to listen to it two or three times. dk
‘Who Owns the Federal Reserve Bank and Why is It Shrouded in Myths and Mysteries?The Federal Reserve Bank (or simply the Fed), is shrouded in a number of myths and mysteries. These include its name, its ownership, its purported independence form external influences, and its presumed commitment to market stability, economic growth and public interest.
The first MAJOR MYTH, accepted by most people in and outside of the United States, is that the Fed is owned by the Federal government, as implied by its name: the Federal Reserve Bank. In reality, however, it is a private institution whose shareholders are commercial banks; it is the “bankers’ bank.” Like other corporations, it is guided by and committed to the interests of its shareholders—pro forma supervision of the Congress notwithstanding.’ ———- ———-
After much success, Paul is flying back home tonight/today. He has had many great catches on his Facebook and twitter, and till he gets back and gets to share more about Paris and Norway, we share some of his best ones from the last few days, and hope to satisfy readers by consolidating some real gems he pinpointed. We really pack it in, dk:
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Quite a potent talk. Very, very highly recommended:
‘This ClimateMatters.TV show is an informed discussion between Mark Z. Jacoboson and Kevin Anderson, two top climate scientists who discuss the prospects and challenges in meeting the world’s energy requirements in a world that requires the switch away from fossil fuels to avoid a climate catastrophe.’
Amy speaks ‘with one of the world’s leading climate scientists who has come to the Paris talks with a shocking message: The climate crisis is more severe than even many scientists have acknowledged. Kevin Anderson is deputy director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and professor of energy and climate change at the University of Manchester in Britain. He has said many scientists are self-censoring their work to downplay the severity of the climate crisis.’
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Paul’s selection but my leading line here [dk]: you have seen good report cards and less sanguine ones. Here is a less gleeful read on the ‘Paris deal: Epic fail on a planetary scale‘.
‘Today, after two weeks of tortuous negotiations – well, 21 years, really – governments announced the Paris Agreement. This brand new climate deal will kick in in 2020. But is it really as ‘ambitious’ as the French government is claiming?
‘Before the talks began, social movements, environmental groups, and trade unions around the world came together and agreed on a set of criteria that the Paris deal would need to meet in order to be effective and fair. This ‘People’s Test’ is based on climate science and the needs of communities affected by climate change and other injustices across the globe.
‘To meet the People’s Test, the Paris deal would need to do the following four things:
1. Catalyze immediate, urgent and drastic emission reductions; 2. Provide adequate support for transformation; 3. Deliver justice for impacted people; 4. Focus on genuine, effective action rather than false solutions.‘
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[dk: Despite material arrangements, Paul was unfortunately not able to be on this particular Extinction Radio Podcast, but the segment with bombardier Kevin Hester is really quite good. In this feature on his notable withdrawal from the New Zealand Green Party, taking a stand against its leaders calling Paris a success, he is resolute and impassioned and clear as a bell. Impatient listeners can start here, at 4:09. His segment is 18:57 long. This is really special].
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[Things come in twos, dk: also Paul’s selection:]. Here is a second slot I have been on in the past, often with great delight, Alex Smith’s Eco Shock Radio. But in this case featuring trained attorney and Prof. ‘Michael T. Snyder, on ‘Return of the Economic Collapse’. It is also quite good and explicates the ‘propaganda matrix of media’. His Economic Collapse blog is well regarded and often posted to Zero Hedge [go to place for stock market finance doom. dk].
As many of you know, fellow Canadian Alex is my absolute favorite interview and I am set to be shared on his show soon, recently recorded but not published quite yet. For now:
‘The melting of polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers will likely continue for thousands of years, causing irreversible sea level rise, even if global warming is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, according to a new report published last week during the climate negotiations in Paris‘.
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Well done, Los Angeles Times’Op-Ed, ‘Climate change is indeed a cause of social conflict‘: ‘First Bernie Sanders said “climate change was directly related to the growth of terrorism.” Then Prince Charles said drought was the root cause of the Syrian conflict and current refugee crisis. Pundits everywhere leaped at the opportunity to say both claims were wrong. Who is right?‘ Continues at link.
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Many of these companies that want to re-engineer our lives cannot make comprehensible media players (disaster Apple iTunes) or web browsers (Apple Safari), or create a workable social media platform (Google+) or provide fully relational, up to date helpdesk notes (Google Docs/Blogger/Drive, Map Maker Process) and they are proposing to move 3,000 pound objects around children, the elderly, and animals, if not capital assets run by fuzzy logic and embedded chips and machine vision??
Does Apple do stuff well? Yes. Same for Google. But assuredly NOT all things. No. This is a big wrong turn on the road of nature. Teenage boy stuff with adult scale investment if you ask me! Can we not do better with resources??]
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Jet Stream Shift 17 degrees Southward to Greenland
Summary
Well known and respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos of sometimes daunting subjects, especially in climate system science, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences at YouTube.
Frequently called upon for commentary by fellow educators, activists, and public. Physicist, Engineer, and part-time professor at the University of Ottawa. His primary interest is joining-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change to determine where we are heading, and how fast, and what it all means for us and our amazing planet.
Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist 