Rare Cyclone Fani Originated in Southern Hemisphere and Crossed the EQUATOR: Part 1 of 2 // May 3, 2019
Rare Cyclone Fani hit NE India today as a strong Category 4 storm, just a 2 mph under Category 5. It is very rare for a April cyclones to make landfall in India as most curve east. I was curious as to where and when the first noticeable low pressure center formed for Fani; I carefully examined surface winds and Mean Sea Level Pressure on Earth Nullschool and found that:
The first low pressure disturbance was discernible April 23rd 08:00 Local time in the Southern Hemisphere (2 degrees S latitude).
It crossed the Equator, the core changing from circular to elongated multiple times, and amplified with SSTs of 29-31 C.
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Rare Cyclone Fani Originated in the Southern Hemisphere and CROSSED the Equator: Part 2 of 2 // May 3, 2019
Second video, continues from first video above.
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Oops. Emissions from Alberta tarsands seem to have been underestimated by, hmm, 64%. Because industry gets to estimate its own pollutionhttps://t.co/hLLp4r9Wc0
Abrupt Climate System Risks from Hydrogen Sulphide Ocean Outgassing: Part 1 of 2 // Apr 22, 2019
Various ocean coastlines, off Africa, Gulf of Mexico, California, and India have periodic emissions of hydrogen sulphide gas. Concentrations less than 1 ppm smell like rotten eggs, while 500 ppm and higher levels are deadly.
Warming, stratifying oceans have more anoxic dead zones (lack oxygen, produce methane, H2S), threats to flora and fauna increases.
In the “granddaddy of extinctions” 252 million years ago with over 80% death-rates of many species, a so-called Canfield Ocean was the smoking gun.
I discuss present-day incidents/locations of H2S emissions, and discuss future risks.
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Abrupt Climate System Change Risks from Ocean Outgassing of Hydrogen Sulphide: Part 2 of 2 // Apr 22, 2019
Continues where previous video on Hydrogen Sulphide Ocean Outgassing, left off.
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More Bad Luck for Ottawa in the Climate Casino // Apr 26, 2019
Severe Climate Change Consequences affects places all around the planet, but disproportionately so. Now, it is Ottawa’s turn of bad luck in the Climate Casino (floods-tornadoes-more floods).
Yesterday, the mayor declared a flooding emergency;
today many soldiers from the army are deploying around the river for sandbagging.
The day before, Ottawa City Council declared a climate emergency joining many other cities around the globe.
I chat about ongoing flooding and my coffee bet projection for a peak flow rate of 12,000 cubic meters per second (cms) on May 5th (May 2017 peak was about 9,100 cms).
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Ocean Surface Winds and Waves are Growing: Part 1 of 2 // Apr 26, 2019
Often discussed is the fact that over 93% of global warming heat goes into oceans. Not discussed are profound changes ongoing in ocean dynamics, like increased wave heights, wave periods, and wave power.
Over the last 3 to 4 decades, winds at the ocean surface have increased by up to 1.5 meters/second (about 8% of 20 m/s).
Wave heights have increased by up to 30 cm (about 5% of 6 meters).
Increases are largest in southern oceans just north of Antarctica; also at high northern latitudes.
Wave Power (Energy per unit time) has increased globally; discussed in scientific paper that I discuss in detail.
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Why Winds and Waves are Increasing in the Oceans: Part 2 of 2 // Apr 26, 2019
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"At a time when civilization is accelerating toward disaster, climate silence continues to reign across the bulk of the US news media." https://t.co/cjebXlUON9
— Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 (@rahmstorf) April 26, 2019
"This flooding is happening here in Quebec, it’s happening in Ontario, it’s happening in New Brunswick. And really sadly, what we thought was one-in-100-year floods are now happening every five years, in this case, every two years"#ExtinctionRebellionhttps://t.co/HFA38UoPor
Duh. Arctic Emissions of Nitrous Oxide GHG a Dozen Times Worse Than Expected. OOPS. Part 1 of 2 // Apr 20, 2019
Surprise… Nitrous oxide emissions from our rapidly warming north are up to 12-times higher than we previously thought, since thawing Arctic permafrost is a huge source. The problem is:
1) The top 3 meters of permafrost contains 73 billion tons of nitrogen;
2) As it thaws microbial action releases bucket loads of N2O; and
3) N2O is a very powerful Greenhouse Gas, with a Global Warming Potential about 300 times that of CO2 (lifetime in atmosphere of 114 years).
In this video I chat about what this all means.
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Oops. Arctic Emissions of Nitrous Oxide GHG a Dozen Times Worse Than Expected. Duh. Part 2 of 2 // Apr 20, 2019
In this second video, I show the science in plots and images from the paper:
‘Abstract: The microbial by-product nitrous oxide (N2O), a potent greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance, has conventionally been assumed to have minimal emissions in permafrost regions. This assumption has been questioned by recent in situ studies which have demonstrated that some geologic features in permafrost may, in fact, have elevated emissions comparable to those of tropical soils. However, these recent studies, along with every known in situ study focused on permafrost N2O fluxes, have used chambers to examine small areas (<50 m2).
Introduction (small edits, to be concise): ‘N2O is the third most influential anthropogenic greenhouse gas behind CO2 and CH4. Inert in the lowest atmospheric layer, N2O eventually rises into the stratosphere. There, photolysis and electronically excited oxygen atoms convert N2O to nitrogen oxides that catalytically deplete ozone. N2O is currently the dominant anthropogenically emitted ozone-depleting substance. It is expected to remain so throughout the entire 21st century. Due to increased industrial processes and agricultural practices that rely on heavy fertilization, N2O concentrations have been steadily rising in the atmosphere. With a global temperature-change potential over a 100-year timescale of 296, the climate system is more sensitive to changes in N2O concentrations than to changes in either of its carbon-based GHG counterparts.‘
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The Burning Question, Radio Ecoshock Interview with with favorite host, Alex Smith. This is from Thursday, April 17, 2019. As he says:
‘Canadian climate scientist Paul Beckwith joins me to thrash through scary new science: the limits before extinction, ocean drivers of our lives, and why weather has gone rogue.
‘In the month of March 2019, the Arctic was 20 degrees hotter than it should be. Under that massive heat, sea ice is at a record low. Unprecedented Arctic warming is distorting weather in the Northern Hemisphere where the majority of humans live. Extreme weather has brought unhappiness, vast damage, and death. In this new climate age, the idea of progress has been replaced by constant efforts to recover‘.
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‘According to the tenacious climate scientist Paul Beckwith, the “refrigerator effect” is lost in the Blue Ocean Event, meaning the “water temperature is not pegged close to the freezing point when there is no ice left to melt.” (Source: Paul Beckwith, climate system scientist, University of Ottawa)‘.
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"In the Puerto Rican rainforest, 98 per cent of ground insects were reported to have vanished in 35 years." https://t.co/SoEgqwVzR3
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It is with deep regret and sadness that we announce the passing away of Polly Higgins of @EcocideLaw. Our thoughts are with their loved ones. pic.twitter.com/uDXZ7MUawr
— Extinction Rebellion Global (@ExtinctionR) April 21, 2019
I'm very sad to hear that the wonderful, world-changing @PollyHiggins has died. Here's what I wrote about her work a few weeks ago. Let's ensure it continues – and succeeds. https://t.co/yfm08lcD5R
Arctic Feedbacks Stopping Winter Sea-Ice Refreezing: Part 1 of 2 // Apr 18, 2019
I discuss the very latest cutting edge scientific understanding on a powerful Arctic feedback that keeps regions of open, ice-free Arctic from refreezing during the dead of winter–December 1st to February 28th:
Albedo feedbacks are NOT happening at this time since the Arctic is in total 24/7 darkness.
What IS happening: turbulent heat flux (sensible + latent) plus increased upwelling long-wave radiation brings heat from the ocean up into the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere;
More downwelling long-wave radiation prevents sea-ice formation.
This feedback increased 8.9% per year from 1979 to 2016.
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Arctic Feedbacks Stopping Sea-Ice Refreezing: Part 2 of 2 // Apr 18, 2019
Second video, of two. Continues where first video, left off.
— Extinction Rebellion Ottawa (@XROttawa) April 15, 2019
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The Earth has a distinct pattern of warming with faster warming over land and the Arctic as in this @NASAGISS map. My new paper investigates whether this pattern will hold into the future and what might cause nonlinear local change: https://t.co/ZzE211UNgk Explainer coming soon! pic.twitter.com/5S4FZFi81t
The monthly GISTEMP surface temperature analysis update has been posted. The global mean temperature anomaly for March 2019 was 1.11°C above the 1951-1980 March average. https://t.co/fKmQhyRmcapic.twitter.com/6FqxvJiiie
Food Supply Threats from Ongoing Catastrophic FLOODING in US Midwest // Apr 12, 2019
I chat about ongoing US Midwest misery from a deep, persistent jet stream trough. After a cold snowy winter, a “bomb cyclone” dumped up to 5 feet of snow over a wide area; then another hit the region; the forecast indicates the possibility of a third event. These storms occur over the ocean as well known “nor’easter’s”, but rarely over land. Ongoing rain and snow from ongoing storm trains flooded many farms, and destroyed stored grains. Normal April planting is not happening. Not good for our food supply.
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Three other recent videos:
Chat on Persistent Cold Blob over North America // Apr 5, 2019
Our destabilizing climate has many unpleasant surprises over our entire planet. The Arctic is warmer than normal by 5.7C; Antarctica is 2.4C colder than normal.
A long-term, stuck Rossby wave trough of the jet stream gave North America a cold blob:
Basically a “global warming hole”while the rest of the planet baked.
As the Arctic “center of cold” shifts from the North Pole to central Greenland (83 degrees N latitude),
This cold blob could become a frequent feature as we near a Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic.
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As Arctic sea-ice plunges to record lows, many pundits are calling for a near-term Blue Ocean Event in which the entire Arctic Ocean is essentially devoid of ice. In my last video analysis (and this one), I chat:
Time frames for increasing duration of the open ocean state, from 1 month to 3 to 5 and then to year-round.
I emphasize the overlooked but equally important loss of terrestrial snow cover to make the Arctic a very dark and hot place. I discuss:
Changes to jet streams, including a 17 degree latitude shift south in its center of rotation, and
Changes to weather drivers from jet-stream to monsoonal, even in the Arctic.
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Arctic Sea-Ice Collapse Accelerating. What Next? // Apr 6, 2019
Continue last video, on Climate System Upheaval, left off.
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"There is enough room in the world’s existing parks, forests, and abandoned land to plant 1.2 trillion additional trees, which would have the CO2 storage capacity to cancel out a decade of carbon dioxide emissions,"#ActOnClimate#ClimateChangehttps://t.co/tVUvsoQBs3
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If it is humanly possible to get through this cancer I will do it.
I am not one to give up easily.
In fact, I will use the cancer to make me stronger.
And I will use it to make my message more compelling. I have nothing more to lose. pic.twitter.com/NodbAOLj0K
State of the Climate: NOT Good at All // Apr 2, 2019
Second of two videos. Every spring, for the past 25 years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) releases their State of the Climate report. This years edition clearly shows how dire our climate situation is becoming.
Just when you think it can’t get worse, it does. In this, and the next few videos, I chat on highlights and key points that are in the report, which I highly recommend you read as well. Consequences to us and all other species on our planet are profound.
Ref: ‘Climate Change: Global Impacts ‘Accelerating’‘, 28 March 2019: ‘The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says that the physical and financial impacts of global warming are accelerating. Record greenhouse gas levels are driving temperatures to “increasingly dangerous levels”, it says. Their report comes in the same week as the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a surge in CO2 in 2018‘.
Ref: ‘Global Climate Indicators‘: ‘The Global Climate Indicators are a set of parameters that describe the changing climate without reducing climate change to only temperature.
They comprise key information for the most relevant domains of climate change: temperature and energy, atmospheric composition, ocean and water as well as the cryosphere.’
‘WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate‘, click here to download 44 pp. PDF, 1233_en.
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State of the Climate: FASTER than Expected // Mar 30, 2019
First of two videos. Above video was second.
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I took a vow in a temple publicly some years ago to devote my life to solving this problem of our dysfunctional economy destroying the ecology and climate of Earth.
The hardest part so far with my new cancer diagnosis is to think that my work may be ended before it's done. pic.twitter.com/OSsr0cvZjl
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Well above average temperatures are projected to continue over the next week across the #Arctic. However, quite a contrast with #Antarctica and its notable cold departures.
Starting at seven in the morning and until two in the afternoon, vast stretches of the city’s principal avenues and highways are turned over to everyone looking to… https://t.co/TvWu4NRkr3
Two-Way Connections Between the Arctic and the rest of the Globe // Mar 26, 2019
Third video. I discuss a new UN Environmental Report titled “Global Linkages: A Graphic Look at the Changing Arctic” (Google it!). Mainstream Media focused on only one small part of the report (namely the question as to whether 3-5C of warming is locked-in for the Arctic) and ignored the rest of the report.
The report contains many excellent graphics that I chat about, namely the:
Biodiversity, including migration and invasive species.
Ref: click to download Linkages, report Arctic_Graphics, large PDF here.
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Linkages from Globe to Arctic and from Arctic to Globe /// Mar 24, 2019
Second Video. ‘Most of the territory sweltered in record or near-record temperatures, triggering concern over rapidly disintegrating ice roads, a call in some quarters for government action on climate change, and even a warning about rotting meat‘.
Record Temperatures 20-25C Above Norm in far North /// Mar 23, 2019
First Video. The Northwest Territories of Canada had March temperatures above 20C for the first time (hit 21.6C or 71F); breaking norms by 20-25C (normal is below freezing). I discuss a new study from UN Environment that made global news about the inevitability of sharp rises in temperature being locked in.
Arctic temperature amplification has mostly been due to:
Albedo declines with reduced sea-ice and land snow cover.
Wavy jet streams bring heat (sensible and latent) to the Arctic;
Arctic air moved south in a big blob over North America, and
Ocean mixing brings heat from depth to the surface to melt out ice.
One of my volunteers suggested 'You should be on @TEDTalks!' Replied: I think so, but I'm not famous-have't been DISCOVERED by them. & essence of what I'd say is Meme of Money thing: that Money now owns us, not other way around. & I'm not sure they want to propagate that message. pic.twitter.com/EPBheqcJmM
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CW: Graphic descriptions of death
There are no words to describe the horrors currently happening in Mozambique. There are countless lives lost.
There is also video showing dozens of bodies washing up on shore. Folks, this is real. https://t.co/U3HF8xcnA3
They might claim they're going to "dim the Sun", but that's not what they would actually be doing. They would be shooting massive amounts of sulphur particles into the stratosphere with unknown and potentially dire consequences. Truly scary stuff:https://t.co/2BgosJ0BRy
Amplified weather pattern will bring pulses of well above average temperatures (>20°C departures) to the #Arctic once again, especially near Alaska and northwestern Canada.
#Arctic sea ice volume was 29% below the 1979-2017 average in this data set for February 2019. Animation shows changes in both sea ice volume (bar) and sea ice thickness (map) in February(s).
Earth Spasms from Profoundly Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 12, 2019
Fourth view in this by now, four part series.
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I had the honor & privilege of bringing@GretaThunberg to COP-24 thus helping launch her youth activism for life on Earth into orbit.
A look at the loss of thicker (usually older) #Arctic sea ice in Octobers from 1979-2016 (PIOMAS, ice < 1.5 meters masked black) pic.twitter.com/BtHCwVUdKk
Reflections on Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 11, 2019
For many years, myself and colleagues at AMEG (Arctic Methane Emergency Group; founded by John Nissen in the UK) have brainstormed on how risky our rapidly accelerating climate destabilization is to all ecosystems on Earth, including humanities, and what we need to do about it [1].
In this first of a series of videos, I chat on abrupt climate changes in the past, what is happening now, and what we can expect in the near future.
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The Latest and Not-So-Greatest on Abrupt Climate Change // Mar 11, 2019
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No state had it worse with wildfires last year than California, a federal report released this week confirmed. https://t.co/XGVTI4Pt0e
“Global warming used to be viewed as a problem distant in time and space,”
“But Americans increasingly understand that global warming is here and now and are growing concerned about the threat to themselves, their communities and the nation.” https://t.co/LmOD5Zy9sM
1 The oceans are being killed. 2 Forests will soon be gone. 3 Fertile soil is disappearing. 4 Megafauna risk extermination. 5 Insects are vanishing. 6 Climate chaos is inevitable. 7 Extinction is now. 8 Plastic is in our blood.'@ClimateBenpic.twitter.com/PvasD7wKXS
Yesterday was the busiest day of the year in the skies so far and our busiest day ever. 202,157 flights tracked! The first time we've tracked more than 200,000 flights in a single day on https://t.co/krDfUYSbzKpic.twitter.com/ApCMHaVEQp
[1] While the first link is not current, we share them as they are nevertheless still representative. The second one is to the Facebook AMEG Page. Paul also writes about AMEG, here: Arctic Methane Emergency Group: Plea to G20 Leaders, from July 07, 2017.
Jet Stream Shift 17 degrees Southward to Greenland
Summary
Well known and respected creator of entertaining and comprehensible videos of sometimes daunting subjects, especially in climate system science, meteorology, oceanography and Earth Sciences at YouTube.
Frequently called upon for commentary by fellow educators, activists, and public. Physicist, Engineer, and part-time professor at the University of Ottawa. His primary interest is joining-the-dots on Abrupt Climate System Change to determine where we are heading, and how fast, and what it all means for us and our amazing planet.
Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist 