Global Trends 2040: Some of my Thoughts on the U.S. National Intelligence Council Report

Global Trends 2040: Some of my Thoughts on the U.S. National Intelligence Council Report: 1 of 2 // Apr 23, 2021

The Strategic Futures Group within the U.S. National Intelligence Council publicly released a report on “Global Trends 2040”, in an effort to let us (countries, policymakers, individuals) prepare fir an array of possible futures. This report is the seventh edition, coming out every 4 years since 1997, and has the main theme being “A more contested world”.

Structural forces seen to be shaping our future strategic environment include:
1) demographics, human development, and health
2) Environment (primarily rapid climate change)
3) Economics
4) Technology

Key subsections of Emerging Dynamics consist of:
1) Societal (individuals plus society)
2) State (tensions, turbulence, transformed)
3) International (more contested, uncertain, conflicts)

Also, 5 future scenarios for the world in 2040 were concocted. Interestingly, the “Tragedy and Mobilization” scenario 5 essentially sees a global famine occurring in 2030 from simultaneous crop failures due to extreme weather events in major food producing regions combined with devastating global fisheries losses from ocean ecosystem collapse with acidification and warming. The scenario then points out a collaborative necessity between countries to deal with the existential threats of a global food collapse.

Definitely read this publicly available report. In my present two videos on this report I chat about the big picture overview of the report, and the subsection on the Environment, specifically climate change. As the report authors note: “We offer this analysis with humility, knowing that invariably the future will unfold in ways that we have not foreseen”, and I agree with this statement 100%.

Please support my research and videos by donating to my blog as I strive to bring you the latest cutting edge abrupt climate system change science in an easily understood fashion. Perhaps I should do a crowd funded project to present my own report on what I see happening in the next decade or two.


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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing. Donating does not need a PayPal account, but simply a credit card. Please click here.

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About paulbeckwith

Well known climate science educator; Part-time Geography professor (climatology, oceanography, environmental issues), University of Ottawa. Physicist. Engineer. Master's Degree in Science in Laser Optics, Bachelors of Engineering, in Engineering Physics. Won Association of Professional Engineers of Ontario gold medal. Also interested in investment and start-ups in climate solutions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Avid chess player, and likes restoring old homes. Married with children.
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