I chat about an extremely significant brand spanking new scientific paper that was published in the last few days called “Anthropogenic Climate Change has slowed Agricultural Productivity Growth” in my first Part 1 of 2 videos.
In my second, Part 2 of 2 videos, I show the figures and graphs backing my chat.
A so-called econometric model of weather effects on Global Agricultural TFP (Total Factor Productivity) between 1961 and 2020 shows that global agricultural TFP has been reduced due to Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) by 21% since 1961. In a counterfactual world without ACC, agricultural productivity would have increased from 100 in 1961 to 210 in 2020; in our real world ACC has shaved 2020 down to 190.
Clearly, anthropogenic climate change has already taken a big bite out of our global food supply growth that has occurred since 1961. The growth has occurred because of Agricultural Research and technologies that have increased food productivity, but ACC is significantly cutting into those gains.
Warmer regions of the planet (Africa, Latin America, Caribbean) have suffered a 26-34% reduction.
Global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Although ACC had slowed global agricultural productivity growth between 1961 and 2020 by 21%, the slowing was about 30% in the latter half of the period (1989 to 2015) as compared to about 10% in the earlier half of the period (1961 to 1988).
There are also large regional cross country disparities, notably Africa has had 34% slowing, the Near East and North Africa 30%, and Latin American countries 25.9% slowing. Cooler regions like North America have had less slowing (12.5%) and Europe and Central Asia 7% slowing. This regional variation has greatly exacerbated the inequalities between poor and rich countries; the most affected region is sub-Saharan Africa.
In conclusion, Anthropogenic Climate Change is increasingly slowing global agricultural gains that have occurred due to Agricultural Research. These impacts are detectable and sizeable already; this is not a case of something happening in 10 years or by 2050 or 2100.
Imminent Global Ocean Tipping Points: Ocean Warming, Acidification, and Deoxygenation // Apr 3, 2021
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