Abrupt Climate Change: Drought Projections in the Latest State-of-the-Art Climate Models (CMIP6) // May 28, 2020
I talk Drought. A new science paper uses the latest state-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to determine which parts of our planet will experience the worst droughts as climate change rapidly accelerates.
Most people know of the greatly reduced precipitation drought (meteorological drought); but there are two other types.
- Agricultural drought is from greatly reduced soil moisture, and
- hydrological drought is from much greater runoff occurring.
Usually all three factors contribute in varying degrees, and drought severity has very strong regional and seasonal dependencies.
Ref: Overview CMIP6 Experimental Design and Organization. Download PDF of Summary, here. Clip: ‘Over the last decades significant progress has been made in model evaluation. The CMIP community has now reached a critical juncture at which many baseline aspects of model evaluation need to be performed much more efficiently to enable a systematic and rapid performance assessment of the large number of models participating in CMIP.
‘Such an evaluation system will be implemented for CMIP6. Our initial goal is that two capabilities will be used to produce a broad characterization of CMIP DECK and historical simulations as soon as new CMIP6 model experiments are published to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF):
At the WGCM meeting, it was decided that the results of these tools can be displayed on a public (rather than a password restricted) website‘.
I Chat on Global Drought Maps: Precipitation, Soil Moisture, and Runoff Changes Around the Planet // May 28, 2020
Second video: I talk Drought again. Watch above previous video first, where I give the background. Here I do a data delve (as opposed to a mind meld) on the drought maps. I cover
- Surface Air Temperature, and
- numerous world maps on Precipitation Changes, Soil Moisture Drying (at surface plus down into the soil), and
- Runoff Increase expected around the planet in different regions, seasonally: Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb = DJF), Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA), and Fall (SON) and also annually.
Find your own region on the world maps (Zoom in on your computer) and see if you are in a water challenged hotspot; now or expected soon’.
Ranting in the Rain on Climate, Coronavirus, Trump, Murders by Police, and Other Worsening Mayhem // May 29, 2020
I needed to rant tonight while walking through a torrential downpour in Ottawa tonight. Lots of utter crap and craziness is occurring around this week. The Coronavirus has not gone away despite actions of many, and we can expect many more severe waves.
- Far northern Arctic heatwaves are unbelievable;
- major Siberian cities slashed a previous record high of 12C (53.6F) reaching 25.4C (77.7F).
- Zombie fires that smoldered under snow all winter reignited.
- Parts of the US experienced incredible deluges knocking out dams, draining lakes inundating towns.
- Trump is totally bonkers, and
- cops (in the oft chance, English is your second language. dk: police) in the United States are murdering black folk.
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It is remarkable (or maybe not) that, despite all this corona induced CO2 emissions reduction, the atmospheric CO2 content is still rising at a record pace, between 2.5 and 3 ppm relative to the same period last year:
Atmospheric CO2 levels should be declining now, because of growing vegetation in the northern hemisphere. And yet CO2 reached another record 1 June, over 418 ppm, and over 4 ppm (!) more than same time last year:
And another paper just out about CMIP6 climate and drought modelling:
Robust future changes in meteorological drought in CMIP6 projections despite uncertainty in precipitation,
This is not the same, is it? This one is Australian, Ukkola et al.
It is a paid paper, the Science Daily article is here:
And Phys. Org.
“An analysis of new climate model projections by Australian researchers from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes shows southwestern Australia and parts of southern Australia will see longer and more intense droughts due to a lack of rainfall caused by climate change.
But Australia is not alone. Across the globe several important agricultural and forested regions in the Amazon, Mediterranean and southern Africa can expect more frequent and intense rainfall droughts.”