Surprising Effects: Glacier Melt, Mayhem Down Under, Argentina Heat, Tasmanian Fires, Land vs. Water Temps

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Non-Intuitive Consequences of Rapid Melt in Greenland and Antarctica: 1 of 2 // Feb 8, 2019

Glaciers on Greenland and Antarctica are rapidly melting due to Abrupt Climate Change, and melt rates are doubling with a period of roughly 7 years.  This is exponential, after:

  • 7 years melt rates are double (2x), after 14 years rates are 4x, after 21 years rates are 8x, etc.

In this video and the next I, discuss consequences that are rarely considered, like

  • reduced gravitational pull near the glaciers, isostatic rebound, and
  • reduction of vertical ocean mixing from surface freshwater lensing effects, leading to: increased basal ice sheet melting.

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Surprising Effects from Rapid Glacier Melt in Greenland and Antarctica: 2 of 2 // Feb 9, 2019

Ref:  Global environmental consequences of twenty-first-century ice-sheet melt: Golledge, Keller, Gomez, Naughten, Bernales, Trusel, Edwards.  Nature Volume 566, pages 65–72, 2019. Published: 06 February 2019.

Government policies currently commit us to surface warming of three to four degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, which will lead to enhanced ice-sheet melt. … Here we show, using simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets constrained by satellite-based measurements of recent changes in ice mass, that increasing meltwater from Greenland will lead to substantial slowing of the Atlantic overturning circulation, and that meltwater from Antarctica will trap warm water below the sea surface, creating a positive feedback that increases Antarctic ice loss.’
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Mayhem Down Under: Atacama Desert Waterfall; Argentinian Heatwaves; Tasmanian Dry Lightning Fires // Feb 7, 2019

Climate Mayhem is hitting many regions in the Southern Hemisphere. A misconception is that the bottom of the planet is more immune from rapid climate disruption due to its remoteness from the Arctic.

Even many 1 Percenters and 0.1 Percenters are confused, and preparing Bug-Out places in New Zealand; they are sadly mistaken.  I discuss:

  • torrential rains and waterfalls in the Atacama Desert in Chile (driest Desert in world);
  • heatwaves at the Southern tip of Argentina, and
  • unprecedented wildfires from “dry lightning” in old-growth pristine forests in Tasmania.

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Global Average Temperature Rising About 3x Faster Over Land Than Water // Feb 7, 2019

Last year (2018) was the 4th warmest year, following behind El Niño influenced years 2015 (3rd), 2016 (1st), and 2017 (2nd). An El Niño may develop this year (65% chance) but is not likely to be super-strong, like that in 2015 and 1998.

Since 1970, average global temperatures are rising an average 0.17 degrees C per decade, but that slope is increasing. Rise over the land (0.27 C per decade) is almost 3X faster than that over the ocean (0.10 C per decade).  Land at high latitudes gets a double whammy, due to polar temperature amplification.
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About paulbeckwith

Well known climate science educator; Part-time Geography professor (climatology, oceanography, environmental issues), University of Ottawa. Physicist. Engineer. Master's Degree in Science in Laser Optics, Bachelors of Engineering, in Engineering Physics. Won Association of Professional Engineers of Ontario gold medal. Also interested in investment and start-ups in climate solutions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Avid chess player, and likes restoring old homes. Married with children.
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