Flaws in IPCC Report: Abrupt Cryospheric Tipping Elements in Climate System

Posted on October 20, 2018 by paulbeckwith

Abrupt Cryospheric Tipping Elements in Climate System // Oct 18, 2018

Computer modelling simulations of climate change have a very difficult time accounting for abrupt, nonlinear state changes, also known as tipping points. Since IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, including the sr15_ts (download PDF of sr15_ts here):

Rely too much on computer models,
They tend to understate the urgency and emergency state of ongoing abrupt climate change.

In this video I discuss the main broad-brush tipping points in the climate system, with a focus on the cryosphere (frozen regions).

Canada on October 17th

Ref: Tipping Elements – the Achilles Heels of the Earth System, from the Potsdam Institute fro Climate Impact Research.
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More On Abrupt Cryospheric Tipping Elements in Climate System // Oct 19, 2018

Continuation of Thursday’s video on how computer modelling simulations of climate change have a very difficult time accounting for abrupt, nonlinear state changes, also known as tipping point, relying too much on computer models, understating urgency of climate change.
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What are the chances of seeing a month or year with global temperatures crossing the 1.5C above pre-industrial threshold in the next few years?

Smith et al (2018, open access): https://t.co/QFUpJZyxd8 pic.twitter.com/rmrOUnKuBx

— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) October 19, 2018

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Please consider donating to support my work. I put a lot of time and effort into researching, studying and producing my videos so that you can learn how quickly our world is changing.

I visited the Mosaica exhibit in Gatineau; huge plant displays; amazing art!!

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If you care about security, you should care about climate change

If you care about the economy you should care about climate change

If you care about health you should care about climate change

If you care about food you should care about climate change https://t.co/8mUiBMZWTs

— Paul Dawson 📚 (@PaulEDawson) October 19, 2018

Ref: Hurricane Michael Reminded America Why Climate Change is a National Security Risk, For the Air Force, Climate Change Just Got Personal.

"The key thing to remember about the report is that it’s clear that the best time to have reduced emissions was 25 years ago, but the second best time to reduce emissions is right now.” — Gavin Schmidt on the recent @IPCC_CH report. https://t.co/AyZtW605lI pic.twitter.com/8w5oCfZtMZ

— NASA Earth (@NASAEarth) October 19, 2018

About paulbeckwith

Well known climate science educator; Part-time Geography professor (climatology, oceanography, environmental issues), University of Ottawa. Physicist. Engineer. Master's Degree in Science in Laser Optics, Bachelors of Engineering, in Engineering Physics. Won Association of Professional Engineers of Ontario gold medal. Also interested in investment and start-ups in climate solutions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Avid chess player, and likes restoring old homes. Married with children.

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