Exposing the Elephant: Exponential Population Growth

Exponential Global Population Growth: Exposing Elephants in the Room:  A

A city of 240,000 people. This is roughly the number of extra people appearing on Earth each day
(births minus deaths). We just passed 7.5 billion, which is amazingly about 6% of all the people who have ever lived on Earth.

Our global population continues growing exponentially each year. The UN projects 8 billion by 2025, 9 billion by 2040 & 10 billion by 2050. BUT they ignore abrupt climate change.
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Exponential Global Population Growth & “The Great Acceleration”: B // Published on Aug 3, 2017

To determine the overall IMPACT of human activity on our planet, we multiply global POPULATION by AFFLUENCE by TECHNOLOGY (IPAT; I = P x A x T).

Unfortunately for us, Population is growing exponentially, while Affluence (with rampant consumerism) as well as Technology are also growing nearly exponentially.  Thus IMPACT is skyrocketing, with no regions of our planet left untouched. This has been described as “The Great Acceleration“.
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How Global Warming Increases Metabolism, Thus Decreases Lifespans.  // Published on Aug 3, 2017

Increase global average temperature by 2 C (3.6 F) and the Metabolic Rate (Energy Burn; Pace-of-Life;…) increases 20-30%. Since there is a fixed number of heartbeats in a lifetime (1 or 2 billion heartbeats); a faster pace-of-life means a shorter lifespan, unless the organism can migrate to a cooler region.

Understanding how all life connects via nonlinear size scaling is crucial to know how life processes like growth, health, and longevity are affected by abrupt climate change.
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About paulbeckwith

Well known climate science educator; Part-time Geography professor (climatology, oceanography, environmental issues), University of Ottawa. Physicist. Engineer. Master's Degree in Science in Laser Optics, Bachelors of Engineering, in Engineering Physics. Won Association of Professional Engineers of Ontario gold medal. Also interested in investment and start-ups in climate solutions, renewable energy and energy efficiency. Avid chess player, and likes restoring old homes. Married with children.
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1 Response to Exposing the Elephant: Exponential Population Growth

  1. openintelligence says:

    Brilliant finding on metabolic rate increases due to extreme heat. It will be included in the database poste haste

    More on population growth – http://open-intelligence.co.uk/environmental-change-monitor/index.php?sch=1.4.3&scroll=0&page=1

    and Health / Mortality implications of environmental change – http://open-intelligence.co.uk/environmental-change-monitor/index.php?sch=

    Paul – I would love to show you how the Environmental Change Monitor database works with a view to some kind of collaboration. We will have a new, regularly updated version coming out in a week or two which includes more analysis of the Implications of environmental change for Air and Water. BTW I am rather chuffed with the Water schema and would like some feedback from an expert, such as yourself.

    With some student participation, I think we could create a uniquely useful resource, essentially for nothing. It should also help to inform your own ever-widening research scope.

    We are applying the same technology and techniques to Economic Change from which income should arise. Environmental Change Monitor is simply a way of being of service. Maybe, just maybe, if people realised the full implications of their actions, they might just STOP … no doubt a fond hope. Even though I fear it is much too late now for humans to have much effect on the future habitability of Earth, the ‘predicament of no solution’ makes the moral imperative of doing the right thing for its own sake, rather than for some desired reward / outcome, even more compelling, doesn’t it?

    My background is using content analysis to refine “intelligence” out of large numbers of information sources. Our intent is to identify the key points first, then discern trends and highlights in what sources are saying.

    As people wake up to the terrible truth of the implications of what is being reported when it injects itself rudely into their daily lives, they are going to want to understand what is happening and what it means with (your) university students in the vanguard.

    Would Messenger on Facebook be a next point of contact? I could show you the new version of the database schema with a screen share and explain how to get the most out of the resource pool.


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