Arctic Sea Ice Loss Projections From the Latest-and-Greatest Climate Simulation Models (CMIP6) // Jun 3, 2020
The latest, most sophisticated climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) have been used to track Arctic Sea Ice Area and Volume over time and make future projections.
- The vast majority of models predict a practically ice free Arctic in summer (less than 1 million km**2) before 2050.
- September sea ice area decreases at a rate of 2.73 m**2 per ton of CO2 emissions,
- and by 4 million km**2 per degree Celsius of average global warming.
Future cumulative CO2 emissions of between 500 to 1,100 Gt should finish the ice; with our present level of 40 Gt per year this is between 12.5 and 27.5 years.
Cutting My Own Hair: Before.
Notice, I am wearing a GARBAGE bag.
Our Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean: Part 1 of 3 // Jun 3, 2020
When will Arctic sea-ice vanish? In this 1st of 3 videos of findings from a review paper, I delve into details. Importantly, sea ice coverage loss (area and extent) have a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions.
- There is roughly 3 square meters of September ice loss per ton of CO2 emissions;
- or a loss of 4 million square km per degree C rise in global temperature;
- or a cumulative emission amount of 800 Gt (20 years).
- There is also an internal variability (chaotic) component of 1 million square km (or 300 Gt or 7.5 years).
Thus, no summer sea ice within 12.5 to 27.5 years. I expect sooner myself.
Ref: The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean, Dirk Notz1 · Julienne Stroeve, Published online: 26 September 2018
‘Purpose of Review The observed substantial loss of Arctic sea ice has raised prospects of a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean within the foreseeable future. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the most likely trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover towards this state.
‘The future trajectory of the Arctic sea-ice cover can be described through a deterministic component arising primarily from future greenhouse gas emissions, and a chaotic component arising from internal variability. The deterministic component is expected to cause a largely ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer for less than 2 ◦C global warming relative to pre-industrial levels. To keep chances below 5 % that the Arctic Ocean will largely be ice free in a given year, total future CO2 emissions must remain below 500 Gt.
‘The Arctic Ocean will become ice free during summer before mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced’.
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